The Bayesian Conspiracy

We covered ten episodes of feedback in one hour (and a half)! After this, we’ll reply to comments regularly at the end of episodes. Comment either at the website (www.thebayesianconspiracy.com)?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss or at the subreddit (www.reddit.com/r/thebayesianconspiracy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss). Or email us – bayesianconspiracypodcast at gmail. TONS of links this episode, because we covered such a variety of stuff: An article about Elizabeth Sheff’s research on modern polyamorous families. A paper on partible paternity in lowland South America. Judith Rich Harris argues that parenting doesn’t matter that much. So you should worry less about screwing up your kids, as long as you aren’t actually hurting them. Bryan Caplan says much the same. Make Beliefs Pay Rent Project MKUltra – a real conspiracy by the CIA to effect mind-control Sacred Values Are How Ethical Injunctions Feel From The Inside (related: How An Algorithm Feels From Inside and Ends Don’t Justify Means (Among Humans) ) Robert Nozick’s “Experience Machine” thought experiment. Fun Theory Sequence (which is mostly a list of links to even more articles, so… this’ll take a while if you haven’t read it before) Or more briefly (but much less comprehensively) – Morality is Awesome! Rudi Hoffman GiveWell estimates their most effective charity – the Against Malaria Foundation – saves lives at a cost of ~$3,000 per life saved (I was off a bit). They consider anything under $5,000 to be extremely cost-effective. Morality Should Be Moral Eliezer’s essay on the ethics of signing up your children for cryonics. “On The Origin of Circuits“, discussing the chip evolution experiment Article on Google’s AI-specific chip design Does Divestment Work? Slate Star Codex on Vegetarianism for Meat-Eaters and Ethics Offsets. The story of Stu Rasmussen, who became the first transgender mayor in the USA, in a small rural town. Turns out it’s a RadioLab episode, not 99PI. Blink – Malcolm Gladwell’s book about the power of human intuition. The episode of Skeptoid regarding the fire in Waco and David Koresh. I think it’s a great way to give some more info on the topic and sneak some critical thinking in as well.

Is it rational to vote? We realize the audio quality when we have live guests is terrible, we’re working to fix that now, hopefully things will start sounding better very soon. Thanks for bearing with us! Eneasz wants to say that his understanding of Timeless Decision Theory is likely flawed, because it is big and complicated and he is small and simple. His interpretation of it in this episode is not necessarily entirely correct, it is merely his best understanding. He is, as always, open to correction. Mentioned in this episode: Mail-in vote can decrease turn-out (includes an alternative explanation as well) Andrew Gelman on the probability of your particular vote making a difference (pdf!) Following-up – Andrew Gelman on why you should maybe vote anyway Caprini’s What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters Peter Singer’s Why Vote?, defending compulsory voting Wikipedia on Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wittman’s The Myth of Democratic Failure: Why Political Institutions Are Efficient, and Caplan’s reply – The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies PredictWise, the prediction market! Hanson’s “Futarchy,” where we would vote on values, but bet on beliefs Wikipedia on Effective Number of Parties

The second half of our conversation on polyamory, because we talked and talked and the episode went long. As with Part 1, positions of other parties, including current and former partners, are very likely misrepresented in this episode. Links: More Than Two – An excellent online resource to ethical non-monogamy. It is also the title of a book by the creator of the website, Franklin Veaux along with Eve Rickert. Researcher Elisabeth Sheff has written several books on polyamory and has an ongoing blog on Psychology Today. Along with More Than Two, this is a great resource for detailed information on polyamory. For example, how do children fare with poly parents? How do people navigate relationships in which one partner is poly and the other is mono? Scarlet Teen: With Pleasure: A whole view of sexual anatomy for every body Because sex is about more than genitals. Journal of Sexual Medicine – Cheaters in monogamous relationships use less protection and transmit more STIs than openly non-monogamous people. Robin Hanson’s review of Sex at Dusk on Overcoming Bias Child custody battles do not favor the polyamorous. The Scarborough family – 8 adults and 3 kids in one huge house, being evicted for no good reason. [note: these articles are from late 2014. Eneasz contacted the person who organized their legal defense fund crowdsource, and learned that this is still ongoing. To quote: Unfortunately the court case(s) are still in process, which is stressful for the family. The city sued in court to enforce the zoning and the family had to counter with a federal suit challenging the constitutionality of the narrow definition of family. The Planning and Zoning Commission in Hartford is currently considering adopting a functional family definition. Public support (and outreach to that commission) and media pressure / articles are helpful right now. Director of Planning – Jamie.Bratt@hartford.gov Fortunately the Scarborough family is still living in their home. They actually just installed an urban bee hive to complement their large garden and flower beds! They’re doing their best to live their normal lives despite the stress and uncertainty. ] Do you like space operas featuring diverse characters and poly relationships? Try Ascension, by Jacqueline Koyanagi Polyhacking Myer-Briggs – a fun self-sorting test. You’ve likely seen some pop-culture comparisons, such as Which Harry Potter Character Are You, but Scott Alexander says it’s not totally useless and we should stop hating on it. The Relationship Bill of Rights: no matter your relationship position (monogamous, anarchist, primary, secondary, hate all these dumb labels), this is super important. Read it! Kimchi Cuddles online comics about polyamorous relationships Are You Dating Your Species? Solid advice on choosing partners by Reid Mihalko The Relationship Escalator

What’s Polyamory got to do with Rationalism anyway? Be Advised: 1.) This episode contains curse words. 2.) Always, but especially when talking about sensitive, nuanced issues like human relationships, it’s important to note that we are only speaking for ourselves. Positions of other parties, including current and former partners, may be misrepresented in this episode. Links! More Than Two – An excellent online resource to ethical non-monogamy. It is also the title of a book by the creator of the website, Franklin Veaux, and Eve Rickert. Dan Savage – Eneasz is a fan, Katrina is not Scott Alexander’s Survey Results Black People Less Likely Polyamory is Boring (and remember – don’t go watching Game of Thrones all willy-nilly!)

We speak with Brian Dunning, best known as the host/creator of the Skeptoid podcast. He has also created Here Be Dragons, a 40-minute introduction to critical thinking. Mentioned in this episode: The Vanishing Village of Angikuni Lake Chris Hallquist on Trusting Expert Consensus The unusual story of the discovery that H. Pylori causes ulcers (and a different take on why the establishment was so resistant to accepting that – it’s hard to disentangle correlations from causation) Using hookworms to treat allergies and/or asthma (Eneasz would like to alert people to the existence of this fantastic RadioLab episode on Parasites, where he first heard of this unorthodox treatment.) Steven Chu’s lecture at UC Irvine “Energy, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Sustainable World” “The Feeding Tube” Upcoming projects from Brian, including Dark Discoveries and Principles of Curiosity Adam Ruins Everything Vitamin C – about as effective as placebo (unless you were already deficient at time of exposure, in which case supplements do help, but that’s true of any vital nutrient) The Illuminatus! trilogy Brian Dunning’s latest project – The Conspirators and here. Brian Dunning as a cat

[content warning: suicide, human extinction. Might be a bad idea to listen to if you suffer suicidal tendencies.] We speak to Jason, who would take extreme measures to end all suffering.  However, lacking extreme powers, he recommends doing good as efficiently as possible, and offers these resources: Givewell – researches charities for effectiveness. 80,000 hours – Have a greater social impact with your career. He also provided us with a link to the World Happiness Report Other things mentioned in this episode:   Jeremy Bentham – founder of utilitarianism. Steven was right – he was one of the earliest advocates of animal rights from the very beginning. Utility Monsters (also in comic form) There are a few responses to Utility Monsterism, here’s a link with some quick lay-person summaries. But my favorite is PhilGoetz, who argues that humans are utility monsters, so it’s kinda a non-issue – we’ve all decided we’re cool with Utility Monsterism. VHEMT – the voluntary human extinction movement Those Who Walk Away From Omelas (pdf) – short story by Ursula LeGuin The Transdimensional Justice Monster Scott Alexander’s retelling of the final act of Job (and sadly, according to comments there, he wasn’t the first to think of it – a Christian philosopher beat him to it by a few years. Still, Scott’s version is FAR more entertaining!) The Hedonic Treadmill – Not that Treadmilly?  (Ctrl-F for “Hedonic Adaptation” to get to the relevant part in the linked page) Turns out, the idea that people adapt to negative events and return to their previous set-point is a myth. Although the exact effects vary depending on the bad event, disability, divorce, loss of a partner, and unemployment all have long-term negative effects on happiness. Unemployment is the one event that can be undone relatively easily, but the effects persist even after people become reemployed. I’m only citing four studies here, but a meta analysis of the literature shows that the results are robust across existing studies. The same thing applies to positive events. While it’s “common knowledge” that winning the lottery doesn’t make people happier, it turns out that isn’t true, either. The Manic Pixie Dream Girl Peter Singer’s book “Famine, Affluence, and Morality“, and his essay “All Animals Are Equal“(pdf) Also very famous among Rationalists is Singer’s book “The Life You Can Save” 80,000 Hours states that being a Tobacco CEO causes so much harm that it cannot be countered by donating all earnings to altruism, no matter how effective. Larks of Effective-Altruism.com argues that maaaaaaaybe it could be? Either way, the best course of action is obvious – become a Tobacco CEO and do a really shitty job. Suffering is Valueless (most relevant section quoted below) I believe moral value is inherent in those systems and entities that we describe as ‘fascinating’, ‘richly structured’ and ‘beautiful’. A snappy way of characterising this view is “value-as-profundity”. On the other hand, I regard pain and pleasure as having no value at all in themselves. In the context of interpersonal affairs, then, to do good is ultimately to make the people around you more profound, more interesting, more beautiful – their happiness is irrelevant. To do evil, on the other hand, is to damage and degrade something, shutting down its higher features, closing off its possibilities. While we’re on the topic, why the heck is it that generally the happier a place is, the higher the depression and suicide rate? Lots of guesses, nothing sounds definitive. Note from SSC – Effective Altruists aren’t actually as mentally ill as you may think LessWrong post on being Adaptation Executors A fictional portrayal of Neil Armstrong on Orgasmium (which serves as Eneasz’s example of why such a world would be awful) We ended with a joke about Coherent Extrapolated Volition I don’t know how effective these are, but because we’re not monsters – this is a suicide helpline.  1 (800) 273-8255. Please call if you’re feeling suicidal. Or text “GO” to 741-741  

The Conspirators talk cryonics. Spoiler alert, they are signed up (and signing up soon) for the big freeze. Katrina is a cryocrastinator. The in-depth cryonics article that sparked this conversation, “Why Cryonics Makes Sense” by Tim : Wait But Why Essay Steven mentioned the agent he went through: Rudi Hoffman’s Website The two major US companies: Cryonics Institute FAQ Page; Alcor FAQ page One of many stories of 23-yr-old Kim Suozzi getting last-minute cryo funding (yay!) Gwern focuses on Plastination in his usual super-comprehensive style (also, I guess we were mispronouncing it in this episode. Doh!) At the top of Gwern’s post he links to several estimates for calculated probabilities of revival, but we specifically called out Robin Hanson’s, so here’s a link to his ~6% reasoning. Eliezer’s referenced post about cryonics being a bad way to erase a person. That’s really just a small part of it though. This post is amazing and fairly short and Eneasz in particular cannot recommend it highly enough. This American Life’s episode on Testosterone. Phil Goetz on Why People Want To Die Rudi Hoffman‘s profession site – great guy who has helped many of us with our Cryo-funding insurance. If you’re in Colorado, shout-out to Shani Sorensen for cryo-friendly Life Insurance Bunnicula?  

An ELI5 (Explain Like I’m 5) episode. Our answers when someone asks “What is Rationality anyway?” and they have a bit of time. (If they don’t have time, Eneasz’s Elevator Pitch is “Rationality is a systematized method of making your beliefs more closely match reality”) Eliezer’s Sequences of Blog Posts on Rationality In ebook form – Rationality: From AI to Zombies Piano competition with and without music results Blind auditions for classical orchestras increased hiring of women (shorter version here) Martin Shkreli: Real Evil, or Evil-For-Good-Due-To-Effectiveness-Calculations? John Oliver’s piece on Abortion Laws The Bell Curve Finally – fact-checking Eneasz’s claims about cultural trends: Scott Alexander’s most recent survey results in full (starting to age now). Of the things mentioned: Relationship Style Prefer monogamous: 778, 51.8% Prefer polyamorous: 227, 15.1% Uncertain/no preference: 464, 30.9% Other: 23, 1.5% (in the general population: Polyamory in general pop (US) = 9.8M out of 319M (3%) (“An estimate based solely on the agreement to allow satellite lovers is around 9.8 million.”)  ) Politics Communist: 9, 0.6% Conservative: 67, 4.5% Liberal: 416, 27.7% Libertarian: 379, 25.2% Social Democratic: 585, 38.9% (general population (US) – 19% of general pop identify as Libertarians. Not as big a difference as Eneasz thought!  ) Religion Atheist and not spiritual: 1054, 70.1% Atheist and spiritual: 150, 10.0% Agnostic: 156, 10.4% Lukewarm theist: 44, 2.9% Deist/pantheist/etc.: 22,, 1.5% Committed theist: 60, 4.0% (general population (US) is almost reversed, ~76% religious, 23% “nones” (and only 7% atheist/agnostic)  ) Moral Views Accept/lean towards consequentialism: 901, 60.0% Accept/lean towards deontology: 50, 3.3% Accept/lean towards natural law: 48, 3.2% Accept/lean towards virtue ethics: 150, 10.0% Accept/lean towards contractualism: 79, 5.3% Other/no answer: 239, 15.9% (couldn’t find any numbers for general pop. As a proxy, a survey of philosophers (primarily Anglophonic) showed only 24% consequentialists.)

Patrick Chapin (of Top Level Podcast) joins us as a guest-host to talk about AlphaGo’s recent victory over Go master Lee Sedol. We get a primer on how AlphaGo works, a recap of all five games in the match, and thoughts on what this means. (The airing of this episode was pushed up, so we can pretend to be sorta-timely) Links: Wikipedia Bots John Henry The NSA’s Skynet Program A tribe of humans without numbers Patrick’s book, Next Level Magic “On The Origin of Circuits“, discussing a chip hardware evolution experiment

We welcomed the one, the only, Eliezer Yudkowsky to the Bayesian Conspiracy for a quick chat. His latest project is Arbital, an ambitious effort to solve online discussion. It is focusing on solving online explanation. They want to do for difficult explanations – and someday, complicated arguments in general – what Wikipedia did for centralizing humanity’s recounting of agreed-on facts. The initial demo page is an explanation of Bayes’s Rule About Eliezer in his (heavily truncated by me) own words: One Eliezer Yudkowsky writes about the fine art of human rationality. That Eliezer Yudkowsky’s work can be found in the Rationality section. The other Eliezer Yudkowsky concerns himself with Artificial Intelligence. Very shortly – on a historical scale, that is – we can expect technology to break the upper bound on intelligence that has held for the last few tens of thousands of years. For more on this see the Singularity tab. My short fiction, miscellaneous essays, and various other things can be found under Other. I am a full-time Research Fellow at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, a small 501(c)(3) public charity supported primarily by individual donations. A majority of all my written material is currently stored at the community blog Less Wrong. We asked him about questions ranging from his opinions on AI to rationality to his popular Harry Potter Fan Fiction. Eliezer brought up a few concepts, and you will definitely want these links: He spoke about potential types of AI, including Sovereign and Genie. Read the full Fun Theory Sequence, which is summarized in the 31 Laws of Fun. Eliezer wants you to see this spifftastic Guide to Bayes Rule. We will be reposting that last link, I’m sure. As always, you can email us at BayesianConspiracyPodcast@gmail.com with your valued feedback, or comment at the subreddit. Other Relevant Links Surely You’re Joking, Mr Feynman! A Step Farther Out, by Jerry Pournelle Death Note The first Miles Vorkosigan book – The Warrior’s Apprentice Significant Digits Beneath movie (it doesn’t deserve all those stars) Three Worlds Collide (also – audio version) The Hidden Complexity of Wishes (“With a safe genie, wishing is superfluous.  Just run the genie.”)