The Bayesian Conspiracy

The conspirators discuss a minor setback. The Safety Pin movement Scott Alexander on your model of the electorate A slightly-more-articulate version of Eneasz’s decision to change the deep past now Eliezer Yudkowsky on the optimism of Trump voters  

The hosts dive into the complex dynamics of choosing parenthood or a child-free life, sharing personal insights. They explore the moral dilemmas of procreation and its impact on future generations. Cultural perceptions of menstruation and societal pressures surrounding parenting are examined. The discussion humorously critiques population growth's role in innovation and the struggle between altruism and personal fulfillment. They contemplate alternative family structures and the emotional intricacies that accompany modern parenting challenges.

Subjects the politicians aren’t talking about, that they really should be talking about. Links! UN resolution on antibiotics US banning of antibiotics in soap Guy with potentially antibiotic resistant tuberculosis (that ended up not so dangerous) sued CDC. More drug resistant tuberculosis! Internet access in prison is pretty limited. :/ Mortality rate for people infected with ebola. Up to 100,000 deaths annually related to medical personnel not washing their hands (in 2009). Polio eradication hoped to be achieved by 2018 Will MacAskill, author of Doing Good Better and founder of the Center for Effective Altruism – the idea of giving a cash prize to the group that comes up with the cure rather than funding research directly. (Discussed in this episode of the Sam Harris Podcast) Methuselah Mouse Prize and Methuselah Foundation, of Aubrey de Gray Katrina has been watching too many cute dog videos American manufacturing jobs are not coming back ~3.5 million Americans work as truckers Minimum wage in Colorado in 2016: $8.31/ hour Singleton?! Meditations on Moloch by Scott Alexander Nick Land Permutation City by Greg Egan Estimates for the timing of the heat death of the universe – over a quadrillion years. To clarify, Russell, I don’t think it’s fair to stomp on your ideas without your input, mine was a self-deprecating comment. – Katrina Moon base mockery Article on patients not being allowed to alter medical devices in their own bodies Digital locks prevent farmers from changing their own tractor oil (although every 16 hours of use seems excessive, even the meticulous seem to only do so every 50. Maybe Eneasz misheard “every 60”) Sam Harris 15 minute TED talk on AI risk Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom Elon Musk was born in South Africa. Golden Fleece awards Will drones end the Age of the Gun? Regarding the warrior class: Katrina thought that land owners spent tons of effort and money on fighting and armor to keep their middle sons distracted. Eneasz meant “growing autonomy” of drones. Bill Gates’ position on AI DarkLordAzreal’s comment about The Microverse in a box question: Maybe think about it this way… given that the simulated micro-world is an exact copy of the world, then any person has a 50% chance of being in the box rather than in the original world. The Aliens have Landed! – Tim Freeman’s story about the aliens and pebble-sized torture Earths.

Dive into the chaotic realm of political discourse, where detachment from polarization is key for meaningful dialogue. Explore cognitive biases like the halo and horns effects that distort our perceptions. Tune in to the influence of social media on theatrical politics and scrutinize the surprising role of extremist groups. Engage with moral dilemmas that arise in an era of rapid technological advancement, and reflect on the complexities of empathy in political conversations. The discussion navigates the paradox of happiness in modern life and challenges ethical frameworks surrounding all sentient beings.

We speak with GMU economist Robin Hanson. (note that the audio improves significantly when we switch mics at ~20min) Robin blogs at Overcoming Bias We discuss his recent book, The Age of Em Robin Hanson discusses prediction markets in greater length at Sintetia Nate Silver & co. predict elections (among other things) at FiveThirtyEight Wikipedia’s summary of The Malthusian Trap Scott Alexander’s review of The Age of Em You can (maybe) help science by doing protein folding as a game What If cows were green? Soylent – when you don’t have time to food The Repugnant Conclusion – Julia Galef’s quick explanatory video, and the Standford.edu article

Feelings – should we have them? The Conspiracy decides! This American Life episode about Testosterone Julia Galef’s presentation on The Straw Vulcan. Also – a text summary of same Less Wrong article: “Feeling Rational” Steven Universe is The Best! Sam Harris speaks with Paul Bloom against empathy Less Wrong article: “Scope Insensitivity” “One death is a Tragedy, a million deaths is a Statistic” – Eneasz attributed this to Joseph Stalin, but modern research casts this into doubt. It was first attributed to him by a third-party in 1947, but it’s possible/probable he never actually said those words. Nonviolent Communication Kaj Sotala on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Less Wrong article by FiddleMath: “Handling Emotional Appeals“, wherein they ask (among other things) – Can you postpone being moved by an emotional appeal until after making a calm decision about it? Can you somehow otherwise filter for emotional appeals that are highly likely to have positive effects? The Christian orphanage that wouldn’t accept money from atheists. Don’t take money from The Templeton Foundation Eneasz’s brief recap of The Sad/Rabid Puppies vs Worldcon. Also – Salaris’s briefer recap of the same issue received twice as many upvotes, so maybe their’s is better. Eliezer Yudkowsky’s novella “Three Worlds Collide” (also available in audio form) Small Pox: 500 Million, But Not a Single One More It was Andrew Jackson who reportedly said “John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it!” Here’s a fascinating More Perfect podcast episode about the story behind that quote (as well as the US Supreme Court’s ascent to power) Andrew Jackson beat up his would-be assassin with a cane at 67 years old.

We addressed a couple things that we missed last time, and got carried away. Katrina referenced the book “Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?” Chimps have amazing flash-memory AIs can fly our fighter jets better than we can A partial list of animals by neuron-count. OpenWorm – Building the First Digital Lifeform The Valley of Bad Rationality Ozy re: Rationalist Culture. Eneasz’s fav quote (edited for length) – “LW Tumblr tends to view rationality not as a set of beliefs but as a set of topics. So if you post “the Singularity is the rapture for nerds”, rationalist Tumblr as a whole will conclude that you are a rationalist and trying to be friends, and will behave accordingly. (“Behaving accordingly” involves reblogging you with long-winded rebuttals)

Katrina referenced the book “Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?” Wiki page about the author. See also, wikipedia on animal cognition. About the crow facial recognition and warning study. Prairie dog language study. The thought experiment of Torture vs Dust Specks. The Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis. Also, like most good things, discussed in Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. SMBC: Who’s cloning all of these Hitlers?! Peter Singer’s essay All Animals Are Equal. Archerfish face recognition study. Summoning Elder Gods can be a risky proposition – be glad that breeding aggressive chickens was the worst that happened (that time) The anti-CAFO organization is called Socially Responsible Agriculture Project. Steven insists on linking to Neil deGrasse Tyson talking about intelligence since he really doesn’t feel like he did any justice in his paraphrasing. Katrina’s self-corrections and comments: I said that there isn’t much of a difference between social and solitary animals in terms of modeling other individuals. That is false. There is a difference. I just don’t want to discredit other forms of cognition. I used terms like “intrinsic value,” but I don’t actually think that anything has value other than what it’s assigned by itself and/or others. I DO think that non-humans can confer value. “Insects are the equivalent of moving rocks,” is quite a thing to say to an entomologist, guys. We were negative about hunting. On its face, hunting animals with healthy wild populations for food is probably preferable to consuming an equivalent amount of factory farmed animals. I meant “legislation” regarding condensed animal feeding operations (CAFOs), not “litigation,” although that has its place as well.

Steve Parker, an expert in Street Epistemology, shares insights on engaging in respectful dialogue about beliefs. He discusses how this methodology aids in understanding differing perspectives, particularly around contentious issues like vaccine hesitancy. The importance of early education in philosophy and psychology is emphasized to foster critical thinking. Steve also touches on the evolution of Street Epistemology, highlighting new online resources and the significance of community engagement in open-minded discussions.

Discover the fascinating world of game theory and its impact on decision-making in everyday life. Delve into the complexities of the Prisoner's Dilemma and the balance of cooperation versus self-interest. Hear thrilling personal stories related to the game of chicken and teenage recklessness. Explore the surprising cooperation among vampire bats and the ethical challenges of price gouging during scarcity. Unpack real-world applications through shows like 'Golden Balls' and reflect on relationship dynamics in the context of polyamory.