Money For the Rest of Us

What is volatility and what causes it to rise and fall? How volatility itself contributes to more volatility such as in the example of the chaotic UK government bond market where long-term yields have increased by 4% in 2022.Topics covered include:How the role of volatility has changed in financial marketsWhat caused UK interest rates to spike and long-term bond investors to lose 50%What is liability-driven investmentWhat drives increases in volatility and volatility spikes and spillovers are more frequentHow to earn income from shorting volatility and what are the risksWhat we can learn when financial securities blow upFor more information on this episode click here.Episode SponsorsMasterworks – invest in contemporary art - **Net est. returns for all realized and unrealized offerings is 15.3%, from inception through 6/30/22.  See important Reg A and performance disclosures at masterworks.io/cdPolicygeniusShow NotesThe volatility virus strikes again by Eric Lonergan—Financial TimesHow ‘Liability-Driven’ Pension Funds Triggered UK Bond Panic by Loukia Gyftopoulou and Greg Ritchie—BloombergUK government debt and deficit: December 202—UK Office for National StatisticsMarkets are more fragile than investors think by Robin Wigglesworth—Financial TimesVolatility and the Alchemy of Risk: Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987—Artemis Capital ManagementWhat Caused the Volatility “Volmageddon” on 5-Feb-2018 by Vance Harwood—Six Figure InvestingGamma Explained—MerrillDelta Explained—MerrillInside Volatility Trading: Is VIX Backwardation Necessarily a Sign of a Future Down Market? by Scott BauerInvestments MentionedWisdomTree CBOE S&P500 PutWrite Strategy ETF (PUTW)Simplify Volatility Premium ETF (SVOL)Related Episodes159: What You Need To Know About Volatility283: Why You Should Care About Carry TradesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What has caused the U.S. dollar's currency exchange rate to be the strongest in twenty years? How a strong dollar leads to slower global economic growth and falling asset prices.Topics covered include:Why a strong dollar is a no-win situation for the rest of the worldWhy have inflation and interest rates increasedWhy recession risks are rising as central banks combat inflationWhy asset prices fall when interest rates riseWhat would cause the U.S. dollar to weaken from these levelsHow to protect against currency fluctuationsFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsAura - protect your moneyPolicygeniusShow NotesWall St blames missteps at FedEx as parcel service fails to delivery Steff Chávez and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson—Financial TimesThe Global Dollar Cycle by Maurice Obstfeld and Haonan Zhou, BPEA Conference Drafts, September 8–9, 2022—Brookings Papers on Economic ActivityMonetary policy challenges posed by global liquidity by Hyun Song Shin—BISDollar beta and stock returns by Valentina Bruno, Ilhyock Shim and Hyun Song Shin—BISWonking Out: The Mysteries of the Almighty Dollar by Paul Krugman—The New York TimesRents Drop for First Time in Two Years After Climbing to Records by Will Parker—The Wall Street JournalStop looking for a bogeyman to explain sterling’s collapse by Kate Martin—Financial TimesBritish Pound / US Dollar Historical Reference Rates from Bank of England for 1975 to 2022—Pound Sterling LiveRelated Episodes215: Is A Dollar Collapse Coming?338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?364: Should You Hedge Your International Stock Exposure Against Currency Fluctuations?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives.Topics covered include:Is the pandemic really over?What percentage of people continue to isolate at homeHow behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.How work has changed with the pandemicHas pandemic stimulus changed beliefs about the sustainability of the national debt leading to structural inflationHow productivity improvements could improve the national debt burdenWhat investment lessons has David learned from the pandemicFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsLinkedIn – Post your job for freeExpress VPN – get three months free on VPN serviceShow NotesBiden’s claim that ‘pandemic is over’ complicates efforts to secure funding by Dan Diamond—The Washington PostCOVID-19 Dashboard—The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins UniversityAxios/Ipsos COVID-19 Poll – Wave 70, September 9–12, 2022Study: 163 Million People Dine Out at Least Once a Week—QSR MagazineU.S. Return-to-Office Rates Hit Pandemic High as More Employers Get Tougher By Peter Grant—The Wall Street JournalReassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy; Panel Topic: An End to Pre-Pandemic Trends or Just a Temporary Interruption? by Valerie A. RameyInflation as a Fiscal Limit by Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo MelosiRelated Episodes333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System400: What If High Inflation Doesn’t End?Investments MentionedSimplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What are the drivers that lead to higher student loan balances? Why a one-time student loan forgiveness program doesn't solve the problem of increasing student debt. What are some more viable longer-term solutions.Topics covered include:How big is the Biden Administration student debt forgiveness planHow big has the student debt burden grownWhy are borrowings for students increasingWhy Baby Boomers spent so much less on collegeHow are student loans accounted for by the U.S. federal governmentWhat is the impact on the deficit and potentially inflation of forgiving billions of dollars of student debtFor more information on this episode click here.Show NotesStudent Debt And The Federal Budget | How Student Loans Impact The U.S. Fiscal Outlook, November 2021—Bipartisan Policy CenterWhat the Student-Loan Debate Overlooks by Ronald Brownstein—The AtlanticSee the Average College Tuition in 2022-2023 by Emma Kerr and Sarah Wood—U.S. News & World ReportBiden’s Student-Debt Plan Could Chip Away at the Racial Wealth Gap by Sheelah Kolhatkar—The New YorkerIf your federal student loan payments are high compared to your income, you may want to repay your loans under an income-driven repayment plan—Federal Student AidWhat Does Student Debt Cancellation Mean for Federal Finances?—Committee for a Responsible Federal BudgetGovernment payments by program—Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of AgricultureProjected Lifetime Earnings by Major by Douglas A. Webber, December 1st, 2019Related Episodes245: Is College Worth It?307: Income Share Agreements—Good for Students or Investors?327: Is Student Loan Forgiveness A Good Idea?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Warren Buffet said, "Diversification makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they’re doing." He also said, "Diversification is a protection against ignorance..." Most of us need that protection against ignorance, yet diversification often makes us feel bad when some of our holdings don't do as well as others. We make the case why we should diversify anyway.Topics covered:Warren Buffet says it's crazy to own more than 30 stocks, but Berkshire Hathaway owns 48 stocksWhat does it mean to analyze a businessHow have U.S. stocks performed relative to non-U.S. stocks long-termWhat has driven the outperformance of U.S. stocks and what has to happen for it to continueWhat are examples of diversification plays just in case the U.S. faltersFor more information on this episode click here.Show NotesWarren Buffett and Diversification—GrahamValue.comThe Complete Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio by John Divine U.S. NewsThe Business Cycle Is Different Than The Economic Cycle - Crestmont ResearchEU Natural Gas—Trading EconomicsRelated Episodes254: Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks?275: Are You Over Diversified?364: Should You Hedge Your International Stock Exposure Against Currency Fluctuations?SponsorMasterworks – invest in contemporary artSee important Regulation A disclosures at masterworks.io/cd   Since inception, Masterworks has sold six paintings from the collection. IRR is net of all fees and expenses and is presented on a deal-weighted basis, which assumes the same investment amount was made in each applicable offering. In certain cases, Masterworks may concede its fees and/or profit sharing in connection with the sale of a painting for the benefit of the shareholders. Net IRR was calculated assuming all fees and profit sharing to which Masterworks was entitled were charged to the issuer. IRR on sold artwork is not indicative of Masterworks’ overall performance or future results.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How economic wars, pandemics, and worker shortages could lead to years of high structural inflation. What needs to happen to avoid this dire inflation scenario.Topics covered include:What are the three inflation lessons Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sharedWhat is inflation anchoringWhat caused the current period of high inflationHow China and Russia contributed to low inflation and why those trends have reversedHow behavior changes and productivity improvements can contribute to lower inflationHow to invest for an extended period of high inflationFor more information on this episode click here.Thanks to Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.Show NotesMonetary Policy and Price Stability, August 26, 2022, byChair Jerome H. Powell—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemFed's Kashkari: 'happy' with market reaction to Powell speech by Ann Saphir and Matthew Lewis—ReutersWar and Interest Rates by Zoltan Pozsar—Credit Suisse2nd Quarter Market Commentary, July 2022—Horizon KineticsBP Energy Outlook 2022Investments MentionedInvesco DB Commodity Tracking ETF (DBC)Horizons Kinetics Inflation Beneficiary ETF (INFL)Related Episodes342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It?395: How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well BeingSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We explore examples of positive and negative unintended consequences, what causes them, and how to navigate a world where unanticipated things happen all of the time.Topics covered include:What leads to unintended consequencesWhat are some unintended consequences of QE and stimulus, price controls, tax incentives, gun legislation, and marijuana legalizationHow positive unintended consequences and order can arise from the bottom upHow recent climate legislation could lead to unintended consequencesWhy customers don't always know what they wantFor more information on this episode click here.Episode SponsorsLinkedIn – Post your job for freeShow NotesLarge rent increases squeeze metro Phoenix tenants by Associated Press—The Journal RecordUnintended Consequences by Karras Lambert and Christopher J. CoyneThe Seen, the Unseen, and the Unrealized: How Regulations Affect Our Everyday Lives by Per L. BylundNorway reconsiders electric car privileges by Chris Randall—electrive.comMore Guns, More Unintended Consequences: The Effects of Right-to-Carry on Criminal Behavior and Policing in Us Cities by John J. Donohue, Samuel Cai, Matthew Bondy, and Philip J. CookMarijuana Legalization and Fertility by Sarah PapichJapan’s latest alcohol advice: please drink more by Leo Lewis and Kana Inagaki—Financial TimesThe Poverty of Historicism by Karl PopperHow the New Climate Bill Would Reduce Emissions by Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer—The New York TimesDemocrats Designed the Climate Law to Be a Game Changer. Here’s How. by Lisa Friedman—The New York TimesEconomists’ Statement on Carbon Dividends; The Largest Public Statement of Economists in History—Climate Leadership CouncilWhy We Don't Have a Carbon Tax by Paul Krugman—The New York TimesLean Startup and the Business Model: Experimentation Revisited by Teppo Felin, Alfonso Gambardella, Scott Stern, and Todd ZengerRelated Episodes158: How To Invest Like A Cockroach236: How Investors Cope With Radical UncertaintySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We analyze two listeners' portfolios. One who is close to retirement and considering hiring an outside money manager. The second is 45 and just sold a business and is trying to decide whether to fire Schwab's robo-advisor service and manage his portfolio on his own.Topics covered include:What elements are part of a financial planWhat to consider when researching an investment advisorWhat is a core-satellite investment approachWhy Schwab was fined $180 million for misleading its clients about the cash balance in its Intelligent Portfolios serviceHow to decide if an investment advisor is a good fitWhy no portfolio can be on autopilot, but they can be as simple as two ETFsFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsExpress VPN - get three months free on VPN serviceMasterworks - Invest in contemporary artShow NotesSchwab Subsidiaries Misled Robo-Adviser Clients about Absence of Hidden Fees—SECCease-And-Desist Order Against Charles Schwab & Co, June 13, 2022—SECRelated Episodes92: What Robo-Advisors Recommend248: How to Avoid Investment Fraud303: How To Do Financial PlanningSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This episode edits and remasters two earlier episodes on investing based on cycles to focus on timeless investing principles.Topics covered include:What are different types of cyclesWhy do cycles have subjective start and end dates.Why do coincidences happen so often.How to position investment portfolios based on cycles.How luck and skill play a role in investing.Why it is better to invest based on calibrating risk rather than prediction.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesWeiss ResearchWeiss Research SEC ActionFoundation For The Study of CyclesFluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence by Joseph MazurA Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics – Andrey V. Korotayev and Sergey V. TsirelHoward Marks – Yet Gain?Mastering The Market Cycle by Howard MarksRelated Episodes173: Should You Invest Based On Cycles224: Mastering the Market Cycle – Howard MarksSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why it is challenging to distinguish a legitimate multi-level marketing company from a pyramid scheme as hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman found out in his losing campaign against Herbalife. How Forsage has taken pyramid and Ponzi schemes to a whole new level, and why the regulators can't shut it down.Topics covered include:What are multi-level marketing companies and how most MLM distributors are unsuccessfulWhat is the difference between a pyramid scheme and a Ponzi scheme and what are some examplesHow hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management took on Herbalife and despite FTC and SEC actions, Herbalife continues to thrive.Why Forsage, a pyramid and Ponzi scheme on the blockchain, continues, despite SEC regulatory actionsWhy Bitcoin isn't a Ponzi schemeFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsPolicygeniusMoney For the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesHerbalife Settlement With F.T.C. Ends Billionaires’ Battle by Matthew Goldstein and Alexandra Stevenson—The New York TimesMulti-Level Marketing Businesses and Pyramid Schemes—Federal Trade CommissionHerbalife International Settlement ComplaintHerbalife Settles With S.E.C., but Too Late for Hedge Fund Investor by Matthew Goldstein—The New York TimesConsistency is Key! Make Money Podcasting by Elsie Escobar—LibsynNovember Stats From Rob Walch—Podcast Business JournalFederal Trade Commission Returns More Than $149 Million To Consumers Harmed by AdvoCare Pyramid Scheme—Federal Trade CommissionFederal Trade Commission Returns More Than $23 Million To Consumers Deceived by Online Business Coaching Scheme MOBE—Federal Trade CommissionFTC Shuts Down Credit Repair Pyramid Scheme Financial Education Services, Which Bilked More Than $213 Million from Consumers—Federal Trade CommissionInvestor Alert: Ponzi Schemes Using Virtual Currencies—U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionWhat is Forsage?—Forsage SupportRelated Episodes248: How to Avoid Investment Fraud253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.