What causes secular bull and bear markets in commodities. What factors suggest a new commodities bull market has started and how can investors participate. What are the risks.Topics include:What is a bull and bear marketHow long have earlier commodity bull and bear markets lasted and what were the returnsWhat led to the current commodity bear market that began in 2011How shareholder revolts and ESG mandates have contributed to reduced investment in the commodities space, contributing to the rebound in commodity pricesWhy natural gas prices are so much higher in Europe than the U.S.How the shift to electric vehicles is driving the demand for commoditiesWhat are five ways to participate in a commodities bull marketFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsLinkedIn - post your job for free by using this linkPolicygeniusShow NotesJeff Currie on the 'Volatility Trap' Keeping Commodity Prices So High - Odd Lots - BloombergNGP Energy CapitalResearch—Strategas SecuritiesThe Energy Blame Game and Other False Narratives—Energy Income PartnersRelated Episodes296: Why Negative Prices Exist and What Can They Teach Us340: Climate Change, ESG, and What Should Investors Do?351: How to Profit From Carbon Investing While Combatting Climate Change382: Is A Famine Next? Food Inflation, Food Riots, and Investing in Commodities and Other Real ThingsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned.Topics covered include:Five attributes of successful investorsWhy does the consensus expect stagflationHow central banks have performed in previous tightening cyclesThree reasons central banks tightening results in a recessionWhen have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cyclesHow stocks tend to do well when investors get extremely pessimisticWhat are examples of contrarian investments in the current market environmentHow contrarian opportunities involve both value and momentumWhat are some additional examples of being contrarian outside of the investment arenaFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsOurCrowd - Invest in pre-vetted startupsFarmTogether - Invest in farmlandShow NotesWeekly Market Pulse: Time To Get Contrarian? by Joseph Y. Calhoun III—Alhambra InvestmentBofA Says Fund Managers Most Gloomy on Record on Recession Woes by Nikos Chrysoloras—BloombergHot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This by Jon Hilsenrath and Nick Timiraos—The Wall Street JournalTightening risks recession but inaction would be worse by Neil Shearing—Capital EconomicsSeeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change by Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony, and Erik A. RothRelated Episodes261: Is Value Investing Dead?266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend FollowingSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why food costs are soaring and what we can do about it. Why inflation rates could start to drop. Why commodity futures, including agriculture futures, have been lousy inflation hedges, and what has worked better.Topics covered include:Previous investment recommendations by Money For the Rest of Us to combat inflationWhy commodity futures hedge against unexpected inflation but have underperformed inflation over the long-termA recommended ETF for investing in commodity futuresWhat is causing the jump in food prices and fertilizerWhy the risk of food shortages is increasing and what are remedies to solve itWhy agriculture price increases don't always lead to higher food costs at the storeWhy inflation rates could slow in the coming monthsFor more information on this episode click here.Episode SponsorsComposer automated trading platform Policygenius Show NotesUkraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis by Jack Nicas—The New York TimesRussia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing record-high food prices—The EconomistAs sanctions bite Russia, fertilizer shortage imperils world food supply by Tom Polansek and Ana Mano—ReutersAll That’s Stopping a Full-Blown Food Crisis? Rice by Javier Blas—The Washington PostPackaged-food firms are running out of room to raise prices—The EconomistProspective Plantings, March 31, 2022—USDARelated Episodes232: Is It Time To Invest In Commodities?309: Investments to Fight Financial Repression312: What the Federal Reserve’s New Policies Mean For Your Finances336: Own What Is Real338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We review the ten asset categories that trade on major stock exchanges, many of which are smaller niches in which individual investors have an edge over institutional investors.How to invest in business development companies, a small segment of the markets that has returned 9% annualized with dividend yields of 8%.Topics covered include:How securities trading has changed and why are there so many trading platformsWhy do institutions still pay trading commissionsWhen did stock exchanges start and which are the largestWhat are direct and indirect investment vehiclesWhat are the ten asset types that trade on stock exchangesHow to invest in business development companies (BDCs)For more information on this episode click here.SponsorsWealthfront - get your first $5,000 managed for free for lifeLinkedIn - post your first job for freeShow NotesNew York Stock Exchange (NYSE)—Corporate Finance InstituteOff-Exchange Trading To Continue To Grow In US by Shanny Basar—Traders MagazineHow We Analyzed Wall Street Block Trades by Liz Hoffman, Corrie Driebusch, and Tom McGinty—The Wall Street JournalU.S. Institutional Equity Trading Commissions Jump 25% to $8.9BN in 2021, According to Bloomberg Intelligence—BloombergLargest stock exchange operators worldwide as of December 2021, by market capitalization of listed companies—StatistaTotal Market Value of U.S. Stock Market—Siblis ResearchETFGI reports the ETFs industry in the United States ended 2021 with record high assets of US$7.21 trillion and record net inflows of US $919.78 billion—ETFGIREIT Industry Financial Snapshot—NareitMortgage REITs—NareitClosed-End Fund Assets and Net Issuance—Investment Company InstituteInvestor Bulletin: American Depositary Receipts—U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionWhat is an ADR?—Stock Market MBADirect Lenders in the U.S. Middle Market by Tetiana Davydiuk, Tatyana Marchuk, and Samuel RosenBusiness Development Companies (BDCs)—Levin LawRelated Episodes318: What Are SPACs and Should You Invest in Them?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Stories determine economic and financial outcomes, both our own and the world in aggregate. Here's how to craft and follow stories that will lead to better financial outcomes and greater happiness.Topics covered include:How financial narratives give us the confidence to take action in the face of uncertainty and potential lossHow the greater the stakes, the more we rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statisticsIs the world more stable and predictable or in a constant state of disorderHow stories determine what we buy and aspire to and how marketers try to influence those storiesHow stories of fear and greed influenced economic outcomes in the 1920s and 1930sHow more precise stories lead to greater confidence and potentially to manipulation.How to get off the hedonic treadmill in order to be happierThanks to OurCrowd and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesJoseph Campbell & The Hero’s Journey by Tamlorn Chase—Odyssey OnlinePanarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems by Lance H. GundersonHorisaki Design & HandelOptimizing SKU Selection for Promotional Display Space at Grocery Retailers by Pak Et al.The Role of Sentiment in the Economy of the 1920s by Kabiri Et al.Monetary Policy and the Management of Uncertainty: A Narrative Approach by Bank of England Publications Et al.Impressed by Numbers: The Extent to Which Novice Investors Favor Precise Numerical Information in a Context of Uncertainty by Batteux Et al.When poignant stories outweigh cold hard facts: A meta-analysis of the anecdotal bias by Freling Et al.Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. ShillerWalgreens replaced some fridge doors with screens. And some shoppers absolutely hate it by Nathaniel Meyersohn—CNNSupermarket Facts—FMIHow To Want Less by Arthur C. Brooks—The AtlanticRelated Episodes294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic EventsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, we revisit a classic episode released five years ago. In a newly recorded introduction, David shares the background on the episode and why he chose to release it again in its newly edited form.Topics covered include:The availability heuristic and confirmation biasHow to deal with extreme events when most days are just like the day beforeHow chaos and unpredictability is used as a leadership strategyWhy do we need a point of view to guide our actions when investingHow to manage financially in a increasingly complex and risky worldShow NotesUncertainty – Lawrence M. Krauss – EdgeRegression To the Mean – James J. O’Donnell – EdgeExcerpts from Seth Klarman’s 2016 year end letter to his clients as quoted in the New York TimesMessy: The Power of Disorder To Transform Our Lives – Tim HarfordSeth Godin Course on Presenting To PersuadeUltra-Easy Money: Digging The Hole Deeper? – William R. WhiteSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How societies have functioned without leaders, including leaderless megacities that survived over 800 years.Topics covered include:Is geopolitics more like chess or pokerWhy analysts think Putin will soon agree to a settlement with UkraineDo most development occur from the top-down or bottom-upWhat are some examples of leaderless societies and organizationsHow social capital and enforcement mechanisms allow the world to function without leaders telling everyone what to doHow companies are struggling with the workplace of the future and the role of leadershipWhy do we need more leadership and fewer bossesThanks to Mint Mobile and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesThe Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George FriedmanThinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie DukePossible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice—U.S.-China Perception MonitorWhy Is Leadership Important? by Eric Beato—Babson Thought & ActionDo We Need Leaders? by Jimmy Guterman_Harvard Business Review Home3 Reasons Why We Need Leaders—Jonathan SandlingIf We’re All Talented People, Why Do We Still Need a Leader? by Angelina Phebus—LifehackTrust, Associational Life and Economic Performance by Stephen KnackIs hybrid work the worst of both worlds?—The EconomistThe Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber, David WengrowRelated Episodes203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess?280: Travel and the Trust EconomySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Will the world experience both inflation and subpar economic growth at the same time?Topics covered include:What is inflation and what causes itWhat have been the largest contributors to recent high inflationWhy does not everyone experience inflation in the same wayWhy inflation measures are subjectiveWhat are long-term deflationary forces faces the global economyWhat is stagflation and what causes itHow do we monitor stagflation to see if it is comingThanks to FarmTogether and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episodeFor more information on this episode click here.Show NotesConsumer Price Index News Release February 10, 2022—U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsAlternate Inflation Charts—John Williams' Shadow Government StatisticsOPEC chief says there's 'no capacity in the world' that could replace Russia's 7 million barrels a day in oil supply-Adam Morgan McCarthy—Markets InsiderSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What can we do to prepare if the Russian-Ukraine war gets even worse?Topics covered include:How risk and uncertainty differ as does how we manage themWhat we can learn from Ukraine and Russian citizens on dealing with uncertaintyWhat will be the financial impact of the sanctions against Russia and the ruble collapseWhy and how we should all prepare for potential cyberattacksWhy now is the time to make sure you have an appropriate asset allocationHow holding dollars, euros, or stablecoin can help protect against currency collapsesWhat we can do to help UkraineThanks to Masterworks and Policygenius for sponsoring the episodeFor more information on this episode click here.Show NotesJPMorgan Says Selling Stocks Now Carries Too Much Risk by Nikos Chrysoloras—BloombergUkraine conflict: Dread in Kyiv as huge Russian convoy advances by Lyse Doucet—BBCRussia launches fierce rocket attack on Ukrainian city of Kharkiv by Guy Chazan, John Reed, Max Seddon, Henry Foy, John Paul Rathbone, and Demetri Sevastopulo—Financial TimesHow new sanctions could cripple Russia’s economy—The EconomistRussian c.bank orders block on foreign clients' bids to sell Russian securities - document—ReutersUkraine invasion: Russians feel the pain of international sanctions by Anastasia Stognei and Simon Fraser—BBCThe dire predictions about a Russian cyber onslaught haven’t come true in Ukraine. At least not yet. by Joseph Menn and Craig Timberg—The Washington PostHackers Breached Colonial Pipeline Using Compromised Password by William Turton and Kartikay Mehrotra—Bloomberg‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes by Maura Reynolds—PoliticoRelated Episodes229: Tail Events and Tail Risk332: What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How to decide the investing scale and timeframe that works best for your temperament.Topics covered include:How stocks perform in the days and weeks following catastrophic eventsWhat are some potential financial impacts of Russia's invasion into UkraineHow complex systems operate at different scales and timeframesWhat are examples of different scales and timeframes for investingHow tactical asset allocation strategies workWhy schema and rules of thumb develop and how do they get passed onHow to decide on which investment approach works best for youThanks to Mint Mobile and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesNikkei 225 Index - 67 Year Historical Chart—MacrotrendsPanarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems by Lance H. Gunderson (Editor)Allocate SmartlyProtective Asset Allocation (PAA): A Simple Momentum-Based Alternative for Term Deposits by Wouter J. Keller and Jan Willem KeuningTrying Not to Try: The Art and Science of Spontaneity by Edward SlingerlandRelated Episodes203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess?266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend Following374: Lifecycle Investing, Risk Parity Portfolios, and Why Stocks Are Riskier in the Long RunSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.