Talks from the Hoover Institution

The Hoover History Lab held Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy, a book talk with the author, Francis J. Gavin on Thursday, October 02, 2025 from 4:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. PT in the Shultz Auditorium, George P. Shultz Building. It seems obvious that we should use history to improve policy. If we have a good understanding of the past, it should enable better decisions in the present, especially in the extraordinarily consequential worlds of statecraft and strategy. But how do we gain that knowledge? How should history be used? Sadly, it is rarely done well, and historians and decision-makers seldom interact. But in this remarkable book, Francis J. Gavin explains the many ways historical knowledge can help us understand and navigate the complex, often confusing world around us. Good historical work convincingly captures the challenges and complexities the decisionmaker faces. At its most useful, history is less a narrowly defined field of study than a practice, a mental awareness, a discernment, and a responsiveness to the past and how it unfolded into our present world—a discipline in the best sense of the word. Gavin demonstrates how a historical sensibility helps us to appreciate the unexpected; complicates our assumptions; makes the unfamiliar familiar and the familiar unfamiliar; and requires us, without entirely suspending moral judgment, to try to understand others on their own terms. This book is a powerful argument for thinking historically as a way for readers to apply wisdom in encountering what is foreign to them. FEATURING Francis J. Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and the director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS. Previously, he was the first Frank Stanton Chair in Nuclear Security Policy Studies at MIT and the Tom Slick Professor of International Affairs and the Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas. From 2005 until 2010, he directed The American Assembly’s multiyear, national initiative, The Next Generation Project: U.S. Global Policy and the Future of International Institutions. He is the founding Chair of the Board of Editors for the Texas National Security Journal. Gavin’s writings include Gold, Dollars, and Power: The Politics of International Monetary Relations, 1958-1971; Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age ; and Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy (Brookings Institution Press), which was named a 2020 Choice Outstanding Academic Title. His IISS-Adelphi book, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era was published in 2024. In 2025, he published Wonder and Worry: Contemporary History in an Age of Uncertainty with Stolpe Press, 2025 and Thinking Historically – A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy with Yale University Press. MODERATED BY Stephen Kotkin is director of the Hoover History Lab, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He has been conducting research in the Hoover Library & Archives for more than three decades.

Stephen Kotkin, a Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and an esteemed historian known for his work on Stalin, joins Dan Wang for an engaging discussion on the craft of history. They explore the importance of archival research and empathy in understanding historical contexts. Kotkin warns against 'junk history' and emphasizes the historian's role in responsible policymaking. They also discuss how AI can impact education and the pursuit of global peace, urging a balanced approach to the complexities of power and societal change.

Amir Weiner, a Stanford associate professor of history and director of the Centre for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies, dives deep into the KGB's tactics in maintaining Soviet stability. He reveals how psychological pressure and conspiracy thinking were key methods, rather than outright violence. Weiner also discusses the influence of foreign literature on KGB operations and examines Vladimir Putin's complex relationship with the agency. Ultimately, he highlights the KGB's failure to adapt and its role in the USSR's collapse.

H.R. McMaster, a Fuad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and former national security advisor, dives into the urgency of building strategic competence in government and academia. He emphasizes the need for leaders to integrate history into policymaking, warning against oversimplified narratives. The discussion includes the importance of red teaming in strategy evaluation and the complexities of military decision-making, showcasing lessons from past conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan. It's a call for continuous education to enhance national security.

Kenneth I. Juster, the former US Ambassador to India, and Shivshankar Menon, ex-foreign secretary of India, dive into the intricate dynamics of US-India relations. They discuss the evolving partnerships amid geopolitical tensions, particularly with China and in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The conversation addresses challenges in trade and investment, while emphasizing collaboration on counter-terrorism efforts. They also explore the critical balance of military strategies in South Asia, especially regarding Pakistan, and the prospects for future cooperation.

In this engaging discussion, Weitseng Chen, a law expert from the National University of Singapore, Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, and Chien-Chih Lin, a specialist in comparative constitutional law, delve into Taiwan's current constitutional crisis. They explore the contentious political landscape influenced by recent legislative changes affecting the Constitutional Court. Highlights include the challenges of judicial independence amidst party polarization, implications for Taiwan's 2024 elections, and the urgent need for reforms to safeguard democratic institutions.

Chris Walker, Vice President at the National Endowment for Democracy, discusses the urgent challenges posed by digital authoritarianism. Valentin Weber uncovers how China's data-centric technologies facilitate social control and global repression. Charles Mock delves into the complexities of monitoring these practices, emphasizing the need for democratic vigilance. Beth Curley highlights strategies for integrating democratic values into technology, advocating for accountability and privacy-preserving solutions to counteract authoritarian surveillance methods.

The Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions webinar series features speakers who are developing innovative ideas, conducting groundbreaking research, and taking important actions to improve trust and efficacy in American institutions. Speaker expertise and topics span governmental institutions, civic organizations and practice, and the role of public opinion and culture in shaping our democracy. The webinar series builds awareness about how we can individually and collectively revitalize American institutions to ensure our country’s democracy delivers on its promise. The sixth session discussed How Foreign Speech Restrictions Affect American Free Expression with Jacob Mchangama and Eugene Volokh on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, from 10:00 - 11:00 am PT. Much of our speech to each other uses technology created by companies that operate throughout the world such as Google, Meta (Facebook), X, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. Because these companies operate worldwide, they are potentially vulnerable to pressures from the countries in which they operate—if Google has assets or people in Germany or Turkey, then the German or Turkish government can force them to comply with German or Turkish law. So long as countries have tried to regulate what tech companies do in their countries (e.g., what information Google shows to readers in Germany or Turkey), foreign restrictions end up having relatively little effect on what Americans can say to other Americans. But foreign countries are increasingly asking for worldwide restraints on things that are said on various multinational platforms (for instance, anything said anywhere about those countries’ citizens or politicians), sharply risking undermining American’s free speech rights.

The Hoover History Lab hosted a Book Talk with Dan Edelstein - A Revolution to Come: A History of an Idea from Thucydides to Lenin on Tuesday, April 29, 2025 from 11:30 am - 1:00 pm PT. Revolution! How did an event once considered the greatest of all political dangers come to be seen as a solution to all social problems? Political thinkers from Plato to America’s John Adams viewed revolutions as a grave threat to society and advocated for a constitution that prevented them by balancing competing interests and forms of government. The Revolution to Come traces how since the 18th century a modern doctrine of historical progress drove a belief in revolution’s ability to create just and reasonable societies. SPEAKER Dan Edelstein is the William H. Bonsall Professor of French, and Professor of Political Science and History (by courtesy) at Stanford. He studied at the University of Geneva (BA) and the University of Pennsylvania (PhD).  Revolution to Come is his fourth book on European intellectual and political history. MODERATOR In addition to his Hoover fellowship, Stephen Kotkin is a senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He is also the Birkelund Professor in History and International Affairs emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs (formerly the Woodrow Wilson School), where he taught for 33 years. He earned his PhD at the University of California–Berkeley and has been conducting research in the Hoover Library & Archives for more than three decades.  

Stephen Kotkin, a Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and an expert on authoritarian regimes, joins U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, who focuses on the Chinese Communist Party. They delve into the geopolitical threats posed by China and discuss lessons from Leninist regimes, emphasizing the challenges of sharing power. Kotkin analyzes Xi Jinping's strategic risk-taking and its implications for Taiwan. They advocate for a unified bipartisan strategy to effectively counter China's ambitions and discuss the critical need to invest in America's youth for future success.