C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Derek Podhaizer, Vice President of Equity Research at Barclays. Derek started his research career at the firm in 2014 and leads coverage of U.S. Onshore Energy Services and Geothermal. Given the recent flurry of activity within the services sector, including Tuesday’s SLB-ChampionX announcement (linked here), it was fantastic to hear Derek’s observations on the space including overall investor sentiment, emerging trends in services and geothermal, and investor perception and feedback. In our conversation with Derek, we discuss the significant changes in energy services over the past decade, transitioning from a boom-and-bust cycle to a focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns, M&A themes driving consolidation in the oilfield services sector, primarily driven by supply rationalization and synergistic services, and the importance of cultural integration in M&A transactions. Derek shares current trends including emerging and growing power solutions businesses, growing interest in geothermal energy among oilfield service companies, the potential for a divergent market in companies providing integrated solutions compared to others, and how total cost of ownership and efficiency drives investor confidence and differentiation among service providers. We discuss long-term value creation in energy services, Barclay’s research department and coverage, technological advances and production efficiencies, excitement for the potential of geothermal energy to become a significant contributor to the energy mix, investor interest in geothermal, and more. We ended by asking Derek for his thoughts on the state of the energy transition discussion from his vantage point in New York. Thank you for joining, Derek! Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that Monday’s ISM Manufacturing report and Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings reports both surpassed expectations, which pushed the 10-year government bond yield to a YTD high of ~4.35%. He noted the current consensus for multiple interest rate cuts (starting in June) is getting challenged by recent strong economic prints, continued record U.S. budget deficits, strengthening energy commodities and accelerating future power demand growth. WTI is trading at ~$85/bbl, marking its highest level since October 2023 and crude oil is continuing to show signs of real physical tightness as WTI time spreads are trading at their steepest level of backwardation since June 2022. OPEC is meeting this Wednesday and most traders expect them to signal continued production constraint through Q2’24. He further noted that OPEC looks to be in full control of crude markets and that the global oil S/D setup looks very constructive heading into 2H’24, both of which should position OPEC to add barrels into an undersupplied global oil market in 2H’24. On the broader equity market front, over the last few days markets have been pressured due to an unexpected surge in interest rates. Tesla was also weighing on markets due to its disappointing Q1 deliveries and providing further proof that U.S. electric vehicle sales are facing some temporary demand headwinds. He ended by highlighting SLB’s agreement to buy ChampionX in an all-stock deal and also noted the solid YTD performance of Oil Services. Jeff Tillery noted the unique dynamics of M&A in energy services and the operational intricacies involved, segueing into our conversation with Derek. It was great luck to have Derek on a day when a major transaction was announced in oilfield services. The OFS space remains super intriguing for its ability to range across classic as well as new energy technologies. We look forward to staying in touch with Derek and thank you, as always, for your friendship!

We had a fantastic session today with Jun Nishizawa, Executive Vice President and CEO of the Natural Gas Group at Mitsubishi Corporation. Jun joined Mitsubishi Corporation in 1986 as an oil trader and has since held a variety of roles in Tokyo and overseas. As CEO of the Natural Gas Group, Jun is responsible for Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG business globally and leads the execution of the organization’s decarbonization strategy including the company’s involvement in the Breakthrough Energy Catalyst founded by Bill Gates. It was our pleasure to host Jun to discuss Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG effort and the evolving trends in the global LNG landscape. Jun first provides background on the massive scale of Mitsubishi Corporation and its various businesses spanning energy, mining, automobiles, infrastructure, and more. We cover Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG business and the company’s role in establishing the LNG market in Japan in the 1960s, the current LNG market in Japan, attitudes in Japan toward natural gas, nuclear and renewables, the potential for ammonia as a cleaner alternative for power plants and shipping, and Mitsubishi Corporation’s interest in E-LNG. Jun shares insights into the growth trajectory of the LNG market globally, projected LNG demand, factors influencing LNG supply, the impact of AI on power demand and productivity gains, Japan’s energy security and geopolitical concerns, and the importance of long-term LNG contracts. We discuss the role of the US as a reliable energy partner for Japan and other Asian countries, how Mitsubishi Corporation is incorporating AI into its operations across different sectors, and the need for continued investment in LNG energy infrastructure. We end by discussing Jun’s upcoming retirement plans to join the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) as a Visiting Fellow. Thank you for joining, Nishizawa-san, and all the best for your next chapter! Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting the bond market’s focus on the February PCE Deflator, which is expected to be around 2.5%. Despite the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates last week and signal three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, lingering cyclical and secular inflation concerns persist. WTI is finding trading support above $80/bbl and crude oil time spreads continue to remain in steep backwardation due to tight physical crude markets. Additionally, the IEA’s reversal of its 2024 global crude oil stance from surplus to deficit provided further support to crude oil prices. However, U.S. natural gas price continues to stay pressured due to a surplus of ~690bcf and severe damage to a key East Coast bridge in Baltimore will temporarily curtail coal and crude product exports. The S&P energy sector is up ~11% YTD and is outpacing the S&P 500 & Nasdaq despite AI dominating broader market sentiment. Mike also noted high-level takeaways from CERAWeek including an energy transition conversation that’s becoming much more balanced/pragmatic, a substantial number of AI discussions/panels, a considerable amount of “global” electricity load growth discussions, a more constructive energy commodity demand outlook, and an extensive amount of U.S. permitting conversations. He ended by highlighting that the Japanese stock market (Nikkei) is trading at an all-time high and noted that the last time the Nikkei traded at these levels was in December 1989 (35 years ago). Jeff Tillery shared his top takeaways from CERAWeek related to Asia and the energy transition, leading into our conversation with Jun. Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy today’s session as much as we did. Arigatou gozaimasu Nishizawa-san!

We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT episode featuring Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard. Peter assumed the role as Lazard CEO in the fall of 2023, after serving as CEO of Lazard’s Financial Advisory business. Prior to his tenure at Lazard, Peter’s wide-ranging career includes serving as Director of the Office of Management and Budget and as Director of the Congressional Budget Office during the Obama Administration. Peter also served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in the Clinton Administration and Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution. Mike Bradley, Jeff Tillery and I were pleased to host Peter and hear his unique insights from his experience spanning both public service and private enterprise. Peter recently co-authored an OpEd for Foreign Affairs entitled “Geopolitics in the C-Suite” (linked here) that explores how corporations are increasingly struggling with geopolitical complexity, an area which impacts capital allocation and long-range investment decisions. In our conversation, we cover main themes from the article, global macroeconomic trends, managing a global corporation like Lazard amidst geopolitical challenges, the potential for a “US-EU Super Bloc” and missed opportunities for collaboration in trade and energy strategies, structural challenges facing Chinese economic growth, and the impacts of political polarization on foreign policy. We discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East, implications of the Chevron deference case (additional information here), factors influencing M&A and restructuring activity, the integration of AI in various industries, Lazard’s Power, Energy & Infrastructure team/effort, CFIUS, and overall antitrust activity. Peter shares his perspective on managing information overload, the challenge of addressing long-term US national debt, differences he’s noticed between public and private sector planning timelines, and much more. We end by discussing Lazard’s vision for 2030 and their “Banker-Scholar” culture. It was a fascinating discussion. For additional reading, Lazard’s 2023 Annual Letter to Shareholders is linked here and Lazard’s report on Top Geopolitical Trends in 2024 is linked here. For further watching, we have previously hosted two Lazard guests on COBT: George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power Energy & Infrastructure (May 3, 2023 linked here) and Admiral William McRaven, Senior Advisor (July 28, 2020 linked here). We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thank you again to Peter for joining. Our best to you all.

Mike Wirth from Chevron discusses energy landscape, global dynamics, CERAWeek, customer needs, mergers, fostering collaboration, and the challenges of investments relying on subsidies. They explore cultures in mergers, geopolitics in oil investments, and the complexities of major transactions in the energy sector.

It was our privilege today to welcome Paul Dabbar, CEO of Bohr Quantum Technology. In addition to his position at Bohr, Paul is a Senior Research Scholar and Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Board Member of Dominion Energy, and a Contributor to the Wall Street Journal. Paul’s distinguished career in the energy sector spans several significant roles including his tenure as the Under Secretary for Science at the US Department of Energy from 2017 to 2021. Prior to that, he held senior finance and strategy roles at JP Morgan and he is also a nuclear marine officer and graduate of the US Naval Academy. We were delighted to visit with Paul. Our discussion centered on a recent piece Paul wrote for the Hoover Institution entitled “US Energy Superpower Status and a New US Energy Diplomacy” (linked here). The report examines how US energy diplomacy should shift to a more positive and powerful tone given the country’s achievements in the industry in the past decade and its newfound status as the global energy superpower. In our conversation with Paul, we cover key themes from his report, the concept of an “all of the above” energy policy and the importance of balancing energy production, prices, emissions, and national security, the potential for collaboration between the US, Canada, and Norway, anticipated growth in electricity demand, strategies for developing countries in meeting their energy demand while reducing reliance on coal, and the benefits of the US partnering with other countries in offering both traditional energy resources and new technologies with lower carbon intensity. We discuss whether explicit carbon reduction goals are necessary, the effectiveness of innovation-led strategy, the government’s role in supporting energy innovation, national security concerns particularly with regards to importing EVs and other energy-related technologies, Paul’s perspective on reforming the IRA, the coordination of energy policy across various government agencies, and much more. It was a wide ranging and fascinating discussion. Thank you for joining, Paul!  Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing the February CPI report, noting it was hotter than expected but had little impact on broader energy markets. Bitcoin and broader energy markets continue to be in a “risk-on-mode” driven by consensus of a soft-landing U.S. economic scenario and seem less focused on interest rates and more focused on AI/big tech euphoria. WTI continues to be relatively rangebound, crude oil time spreads have pulled back modestly but still remain in steep backwardation, and OPEC reiterated its previous 2024 demand growth forecast of 2.2mmbpd. In natural gas, prompt and the 12-month natural gas strip have pulled back modestly, U.S. natural gas storage this week increased to >30% above normal, and lower 48 dry gas production has decreased due to continued producer cutbacks. Mike also highlighted Shell’s upcoming Energy Transition Report, the UK’s allowance for new natural gas generation into the 2030s, and that data centers are desperate for power and could look at natural gas power generation as part of their power mix. He mentioned the EQT Corp and Equitran’s Midstream merger and suggested that U.S. natural gas demand estimates may be underestimated given data center and C&I growth. Arjun Murti built on the themes Mike raised and emphasized the need for a healthier energy evolution that aligns policies with the necessity of meeting unmet energy needs while addressing environmental concerns and the evolving role of traditional energy in power generation. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Our best to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Jigar Shah, Director of the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO). Jigar joined the LPO in 2021 and is the former founder of SunEdison and former co-founder of Generate Capital. As you may know, the LPO is equipped with more than $400 billion in loans and loan guarantees to help deploy innovative clean energy, advanced transportation, and Tribal energy projects in the US that support a cleaner and stronger energy economy. With 205 active applications and an average of 2.1 new applications per week, they are busier than ever. We were thrilled to visit with Jigar for an insightful update on the LPO’s progress and preview of the LPO’s planned activities at CERAWeek. In our discussion, we touch on growing electricity demand and the utility loan applications the LPO has received focused on demand flexibility, grid enhancement technologies, and virtual power plants. Jigar shares his perspective on increasing interest in geothermal, nuclear and next generation hydro projects, the cost of new energy infrastructure and the impact on electricity affordability, team developments at the LPO, carbon capture and sequestration projects, EPA regulations and their impact on energy plants (particularly coal plants), tech companies’ focus on securing sufficient power for their operations to meet their growing power demands (see link to AWS Talen story from this week here), and market dynamics in methane detection and reduction technologies. We discuss the critical importance of permitting reform and the LPO’s connectivity with permitting-related government offices, the Presidential election’s potential impact on the LPO, financing mechanisms and the LPO’s interest rates, and much more. Jigar is such a fun and upbeat guy and we always enjoy a visit with him. We also appreciate that he'll field any question we throw his way, especially our questions about the inner workings of Washington DC. Thank you, Jigar! Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this week was a light economic week with the January JOLTS Job Openings report being most watched. On the broader equity market front, AI euphoria seemingly pushes equities to new highs every week, but this week has witnessed a bit of a pullback. WTI has pulled back marginally, but still trades at the high end of its 3-month trading range. OPEC extended its 2mmbpd of production cuts through Q2’24. Physical crude markets seem tight given WTI time spreads continue to trade in steep backwardation. The 12-month natural gas strip is trading up from $2.55/MMBtu to $2.85/MMBtu on news that EQT Corp has made a strategic decision to curtail ~1bcfpd of gross production through the end of March (link here). Over the last 2 weeks, lower 48 natural gas production has averaged ~2bcfpd lower than in prior weeks. On the utility sector front, he highlighted the staggering 5-year capex plans being laid out on electricity utility Q4 calls. He noted the massive YTD performance of a handful of nuclear levered electricity equities, which look to be getting rerated markedly higher (by generalist investors) due to a more robust long-term earnings growth profile and the increasing likelihood of securing lucrative long-term datacenter electricity deals. He also noted that in time, the utility sector could also be rerated higher as investors begin viewing them more as growth stocks. Jeff Tillery and Brett Rampal also joined and added their perspectives and inquiries to the discussion with Jigar. For our COBT history buffs, today’s episode marks Jigar’s third guest appearance on COBT. He previously joined on Feb. 27, 2023 (episode linked

Today we were thrilled to welcome our good friend Pat Wood, CEO of Hunt Energy Network. Pat’s extensive career in power and energy includes serving as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas during the administration of President George W. Bush. Additionally, he has held several independent director and advisor roles in solar, power, and utility-related organizations. Pat is also a civil engineer Aggie who went and got a Harvard law degree. Perhaps that’s why he calls himself an armadillo – someone who likes the middle of the road! Under Pat’s leadership, Hunt Energy Network has deployed a portfolio of distributed power assets across Texas. The organization aims to reach a portfolio of 1,000 MWs of batteries and peaker generation attached to the ERCOT grid by 2026. It was our pleasure to host Pat and hear insights from his unique perspective as a former regulator turned industry executive. Pat first provides background on the Hunt Energy Network, the organization’s focus on decentralized power solutions including battery deployment and peaker generation, and the role of gas peaker plants in the energy grid to meet sudden spikes in demand. Pat shares his perspective on the complexities and challenges of managing energy infrastructure, the transition from a regulated utility business to a market-driven approach during his tenure at the PUC, the historical context of power prices, the role of subsidies and ongoing debate surrounding their effectiveness, and the need for innovative thinking and proactive measures to address growing demand for electricity. We touch on market approaches to integrating new technologies into the energy sector, the importance of having a diverse portfolio of power-generating technologies to meet future demands, economic implications of energy policy decisions, the effectiveness of market-driven approaches versus government-led initiatives in shaping energy systems, investing in cybersecurity and grid resilience to protect against potential threats, and much more. Before we wrapped up, we talked about states and countries around the world and the building blocks of getting power policy right. Overall, Pat did exactly what we really needed today as he supplied plenty of optimism and humor in an area (power) lacking in both these days. For some additional power thinking, please click here for a chart Pat provided showing estimated US energy sources, consumption, and “lost energy” from 2021. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting this week was a relatively light week for economic stats, with the PCE deflator release being the only real stat that traders seemed focused on. Broader markets continue to set new weekly highs but could lose some trading momentum in coming weeks given that Q4 earnings (especially AI and Big Tech) are essentially done. On the crude oil market front, he highlighted that WTI (~$79/bbl) is trading at the upper-end of its recent 3–4-month trading range despite large U.S. crude oil inventory builds from historically low seasonal refining runs, but that it will reverse in coming weeks. He noted that physical crude markets have tightened as WTI crude oil time spreads have moved into steep backwardation, and are now trading at levels last seen in October 2023, when WTI price was trading at ~$90/bbl. He flagged that nat gas prompt price has completely reversed gains post Chesapeake Energy’s production cut announcement last week and that the 12-month natural gas strip has rallied, since that announcement, on an expectation that 2024 lower-48 natural gas production will be several bcf per day lower heading into summer. In energy news, he noted energy sector Q4 reporting was essentially complete and also noted another mid-sized E&P merger announcement from last week. He wrapped by h

One of the issues that we have become fascinated with over the last couple of years is power: power availability, power costs, power reliability, growth in demand for power, and the overall complexity of our power systems. We’ve also become extremely interested in how these power issues are meaningfully affecting states, countries and industries. With all of that in mind, we read with particular interest recent publications from today’s COBT guest, Susan Shelley, Columnist and Member of the Editorial Board for the Southern California News Group. Susan covers local, state and national issues across eleven daily papers including the Los Angeles Daily News, the Orange County Register, the Riverside Press-Enterprise and the Long Beach Press-Telegram. Much of the energy transition discussion is around decarbonization and economic justice, extremely important and complicated topics. What is often missing is an examination of the costs of various decarbonization alternatives and the ways in which those choices could be hitting different segments of society. On today’s COBT, we greatly enjoyed discussing with Susan California’s power choices and talking about their costs and their debatable benefits. As we talked to Susan, one thing we reflected on is that everyone loves California. It’s beautiful, it’s creative, it’s a huge part of the US economy and has been a historical driver of innovation from Hollywood to Silicon Valley. In our discussion, we touch on one of Susan’s recent articles entitled "Why California’s Electricity Is So Expensive" (linked here), the disconnect between the perceived benefits of green energy policies and the reality of high energy costs for Californians, and how Californians are reacting to rising energy costs, with some leaving the state due to affordability issues. We discuss California’s political landscape and recent legislation, the solar energy market and how fixed charges for electricity may disincentivize solar investment among residents, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), leaders in the environmental community, utility and infrastructure management, and advocacy for transparency regarding the costs of climate policies. With California planning to outlaw sales of new combustion engine cars by 2035 and to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2045, we reflected on whether California is "leading or lagging" when it comes to power choices. We also took a minute to ask Susan for her outlook for California in ten years. Overall, we are hopeful that California will find a better balance between hitting climate goals and providing affordable and reliable energy and power for their residents and their industry. The current path doesn’t feel sustainable. To kick us off, Mike Bradley noted this coming week would be notably lighter on economic stats versus last week which saw hotter than expected CPI & PPI prints. On the broader equity market front, he flagged that trading this week would be dominated by quarterly results from Nvidia (NVDA), which likely set the tone for broader markets, the tech sector, and AI levered equities. He highlighted that WTI price increased to the upper end of its 3-month trading range and that DOE inventory stats in the coming weeks likely show continued large crude oil builds on historically low refining runs but will likely then reverse. He noted prompt price has declined to ~$1.55/M and the 12-month strip to ~$2.40/M and further noted that most natural gas E&Ps break-even price is above the current strip, and as such, have lowered their 2024 capex guidance. This coming week will be a heavy Q4 reporting week for E&Ps and Oil Service, and investors will be closely monitoring 2024 capex plans. He wrapped by highlighting Intuiti

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Fred Hutchison, President and CEO of LNG Allies, for a comprehensive discussion on an important and timely topic, LNG. Fred founded LNG Allies in 2014 and is a leading spokesman for the US LNG export industry with over four decades of experience in government and public relations. LNG Allies is an independent, non-profit association focused on advancing the interests of the US LNG industry and promoting the benefits of LNG exports. We were thrilled to visit with Fred. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with background on the formation of LNG Allies, the significant shift in the US from being an importer to becoming the world’s largest exporter of LNG in a relatively short period, gratitude from European countries towards the US for supplying LNG in the post Ukraine invasion energy crunch, the ongoing debate about natural gas as a lower impact fuel and its role in the energy transition, the impact of recent geopolitical events and energy prices on energy security and industrial activity, and potential motivations and implications behind the Biden Administration’s pause on LNG approvals. We touch on the shift in resistance to long-term LNG contracts, opposition and lobbying against LNG exports, global trust in the US as a supplier and concerns about reliability with changing administrations, the potential for LNG growth in other countries, the impact of US policy decisions on energy supply, and concern with the lack of understanding among policymakers about energy issues. Fred shares his perspective on the diverse export market for LNG, emerging markets in future LNG demand, challenges faced by countries in accessing financing for LNG projects due to credit rating issues, and much more. We ended by asking Fred for his view on the state of journalism and public debate as a writer himself. It was a wide-ranging and in-depth conversation and we can’t thank Fred enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. In our discussion, you will hear we reference a few items. The IEEJ’s January 2024 report is linked here and the Wall Street Journal op-ed regarding the IEA is linked here. For additional LNG reading, the LNG Allies’ report on US LNG projects and contracts as of February 3rd is linked here and a recent letter to Congress on the LNG Moratorium is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing key economic, equity market, commodity and energy sector thoughts. On the economic front, January CPI printed hotter than expected, pushing the 10-year yield bond up and calling into question the pace of future FED rate cuts. On the broader equity market front, even though the hotter than expected CPI pushed the DJIA down over 500 points, he stressed that market volatility remains historically low and investor sentiment remains bullish. On the commodity market front, WTI price surged to ~$78/bbl. (+$5/bbl. on the week) which is the upper end of its 3-month trading range. He noted several recent crosscurrents effecting crude oil markets and highlighted that U.S. natural gas prompt price plunged to ~$1.65/MMBtu (lowest price level since Covid in 2020 and prior to that 1999) and noted that the 12-month strip traded down to ~$2.50/MMBtu, which is below “most” U.S. natural gas E&Ps break-even price. On the traditional energy sector front, he highlighted this week’s $26 billion merger deal between Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy, w

Today we had the very interesting opportunity to visit with Ernest Scheyder, Senior Correspondent at Thomson Reuters and author of the newly released book entitled "The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives." The book was officially published on January 30th and examines the multifaceted world of metals, mining, and processing with insights from investors, miners, landowners, environmentalists, and politicians. Ernie provided a balanced perspective in telling this complex story and has an extensive background covering both shale in its heyday and now critical minerals/mining for Reuters. As you will hear, our whole team thoroughly enjoyed the book and the discussion.Our session with Ernie spanned the themes and insights in his book including the challenges and controversies surrounding the extraction of critical minerals, the complexity of mining operations, environmental concerns, community opposition, historical events and their implications for present-day mining projects, and the varying perspectives on greenfield versus brownfield mining. We touch on the lack of certainty in long-term projects across different administrations and various departments in the US, projects facing uncertainty with permitting issues, associated issues with outsourcing processing to countries like China, the tough choices the US will have to face regarding resource extraction to ensure national security, the potential for armed conflicts over critical minerals, and developing countries’ desire to develop their own supply chains. Ernie also shares his experiences with environmental groups and conservationists of all types, efforts by the mining industry to establish global standards (for additional reading on "IRMA" – the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, click here), growing consumer interest in responsibly sourced materials, initial feedback Ernie has received on the book, and his overall goal to maintain a neutral viewpoint in the book. We thoroughly enjoyed the conversation!To start the show, Mike Bradley flagged the recent surge in 10-year bond yields due to hotter-than expected recent job stats, which is making traders question the consensus expectation for interest cuts in March. From an equity markets perspective, broader equity indices continue hitting all-time highs with volatility trading near historic lows. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices declined ~$4/bbl. over the last week, but in general remain directionless due to varying global crosscurrents. On the U.S. natural gas front, natural gas traded briefly below $2.00/MMBtu and investors seem to be in little rush to be stepping into natural gas levered equities today but are sniffing around for a 2025 gas-levered trade. From an energy equity market perspective, he indicated that most oil majors have reported solid Q4 results, with one of the bigger themes coming from Euro majors being a modest pivot away from alternative energy spending and favoring increasing shareholder returns. He wrapped by highlighting the boom/bust for the lithium industry, with lithium prices down ~80% from its Nov. ’22 peak and with many lithium equities over the last year down >70%. Todd Scruggs emphasized the complexity involved in the energy transition by noting a recent announcement from Germany to commission 10 GW of new natural gas-fired power plants with the expectation of converting them to hydrogen fuel in the future (story linked here), Germany’s intention to introduce a capacity market feature to their power market, and the overall projected surge in demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, copper, silver, and rare earths.We are e