We had a fantastic session today with Amy Roma, Partner and Global Energy Practice Leader at Hogan Lovells. Amy has served at Hogan Lovells since 2007 and as you will hear, her work focuses on the commercial nuclear energy industry. Her efforts have earned her recognition as one of the Top 10 most innovative lawyers in North America by the Financial Times and the National Law Journal named her one of the most impactful minds at the "intersection of energy and the environment." Amy is freshly back from COP 28 and we covered a broad range of topics in today’s discussion centered on Amy’s nuclear expertise and key themes from her firsthand experience at the conference.   In our discussion, we begin by exploring her expectations for this year’s COP. Amy shares insights on her interactions with OPEC, her motivation to attend COP 28 following a disappointing COP 26, and the shift she has seen towards more serious considerations of decarbonization, energy affordability, reliability, and security. We discuss the business case for nuclear energy, unique financing models to mitigate risks, the challenges of establishing a secure fuel supply chain, Amy’s role and where she spends most of her time, and the team and expertise at Hogan Lovells. We touch on the pace of progress around nuclear in the United States compared to internationally, the strategic importance for the US to be a leader in the global nuclear market, and some of the new interest in nuclear Amy has seen from industrial participants. We end with Amy’s thoughts on what the nuclear landscape might look like in ten years. Thank you, Amy, for joining and sharing your insights with us all!   Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing bond yields and the Wednesday FED meeting. He noted WTI price weakness is mostly due to the same issues that have plagued it for the last several weeks and further noted the plunge in U.S. natural gas from early-November levels given above-average U.S. storage levels and U.S. production that has recently averaged ~2-3bcfd higher than previous months. He highlighted that broader equity markets are trading back to near March 2022 levels due to the recent pullback in interest rates and a belief that the FED will pull off a "soft-landing" for the U.S. economy. He noted that the COP28 conference had all but concluded but that diplomats were still working after-hours to craft fossil fuel "wording" for their final official communique. He noted that "phase down" wording is important for some COP28 delegates but for all intents and purposes, it’s less important for most countries that will do what’s ultimately best for their own citizens. He wrapped by highlighting that Ford is reducing their 2024 F-150 Lighting (EV) production, and that it was a positive development for their shareholders as it means less future capex, less EV losses, more FCF and higher ROCE employed. Jeff Tillery and Brett Rampal also joined today’s session and added their perspective and questions to the mix with Amy.   Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

Today we were very fortunate to host Fernando Oris de Roa for an insightful discussion on Argentina and the recent dramatic election result there. Fernando served as the Ambassador of Argentina to the United States in 2018 and 2019 is currently an Independent Director of Allkem. He is an accomplished entrepreneur and business leader in Argentina and earned his MPA from the Harvard Kennedy School. With the country’s recent election of political newcomer Javier Milei as President, we were thrilled to visit with Fernando and explore the implications of the new presidency for Argentina and Latin America at large. Fernando first shares his perspective on the political landscape in Argentina, the significance of Milei’s win, the libertarian philosophies Milei will bring to office, and reactions within the Argentine business community. We explore Milei’s announced and other potential key players in a new government, the United States’s cautiously supportive stance thus far, the nation’s vast energy and economic opportunities, the issue of dollarization, geopolitical considerations with neighboring countries, and China’s growing influence in Latin America. We also discuss the current investment climate in Argentina, the potential for expansion in the mining sector, Fernando’s recommended short-term goals for the nation, including stabilizing inflation, the potential for sweeping budget cuts to reduce the size of government, and much more. In our conversation with Fernando, we began to wonder if a good analogy to Milei’s win is Lech Walesa in Poland or Vaclev Havel in Czechoslovakia, instead of the often repeated “Trump of Argentina” comparison. It’s perhaps too early to tell but a rejection of socialism and government control has clearly happened. We ended by asking Fernando for his ten-year view for Argentina. It was an insightful discussion and we greatly appreciated hearing his insights. Mike Bradley kicked us off by indicating that 10-year bond yields plunged ~20bps and are now trading at a 3-month low of 4.2%. He noted that bond traders are betting the FED is done hiking rates and could soon be cutting due to a growing consensus of a U.S. “soft landing.” He highlighted a couple of rumblings stemming from the COP 28 conference and noted pleas from some more vocal individuals on a more aggressive phase out of coal & other fossil fuels, on the other hand, there was also constructive dialogue for a more aggressive nuclear buildout and more stringent methane monitoring. He highlighted that broader equity markets continue to trade sideways, are technically overbought (post a 10% rally off October lows) and that near-term trading caution is warranted. He highlighted that WTI price traded down to ~$72/bbl. (-$2-$3/bbl.) this week and really needs to hold technical support levels of $72.50/bbl. He further noted that crude price weakness is due both to CTA contract liquidation and physical weakness, which has pushed crude curves into contango from long-held backwardation. He also discussed that the recent OPEC+ meeting concluded with Russia/Saudi extending 1.3mmbpd of cuts, a handful of OPEC+ members agreeing to a 0.9mmbpd “voluntary” cuts through Q1’24, but that traders also remain unconvinced for most of these voluntary OPEC+ cuts, which has pushed crude traders into “show me” mode. He rounded out by highlighting Javier Milei’s win of the Argentinian Presidency rallied the Argentinian stock market by 40% on early optimism that he might contain runaway inflation and further open up the oil & gas and mining industries. Jeff Tillery also joined for the exciting discussion with Fernando. Fernando was a fantastic guest and we hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. Our best to you all. Tomorrow evening marks the start of Hanukkah… so a “Happy Hanukkah” to everyone just a bit early.

David Whitehouse, CEO of Offshore Energies UK, talks about UK and North Sea energy, including challenges and opportunities in the offshore energy sector. They discuss the impact of windfall taxes on investments, the transition to renewable sources like offshore wind and hydrogen, and the importance of reliable and affordable energy for successful economies.

We’re so pleased today to be able to bring you what is now the fourth in a series of COBT Thanksgiving episodes. When we think about the joys of Thanksgiving Day, it’s striking how many of those things are connected to energy. The energy to warm our homes, to cook our food, to help our families fly and drive to see us, to power everything from the TV to the refrigerator, etc. The list goes on and on. What’s always struck us is that not only is energy needed for this great holiday, but so many of the people who make our energy possible are actually working on Thanksgiving Day. We love highlighting the hardworking men and women in energy who make this all possible.   Our previous Thanksgiving-focused COBT episodes have included:Thanksgiving 2022 | Episode Linked Here Featuring energy workers in oilfield equipment and servicesThanksgiving 2021 | Episode Linked Here Featuring energy workers in power plants, fracking, and LNGThanksgiving 2020 | Episode Linked Here Featuring energy workers on rigs, at a refinery, fracking, and monitoring pipelinesThis year, as we were thinking about difficult jobs in the industry, we thought about offshore drilling rigs. We reached out to the team at Transocean and their team helped make today’s episode possible.   Joining us for COBT from Transocean’s Deepwater Atlas drillship are Tyler Riley, Captain, Jeff Bruno (“Bruno”), Drilling Superintendent, Dennis Walton, Senior Subsea Supervisor, and David Galatenau, Driller in Training. They literally joined us from five thousand feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico.   Captain Riley first provides fascinating background on the 130+ hardworking men and women on the ship, highlighting their work schedule, lifestyle, and team dynamics, and also provides background on the drillship. As you’ll hear, the Deepwater Atlas is one of only two 8th generation drillships in the world and has 20,000 psi well control capabilities and a 3.4 million pound hoisting capacity. Bruno and Dennis each share thoughts about their roles and their respective teams, discuss the support and camaraderie they share, and even tell us some good fishing stories. David is a recent graduate from Texas Tech and is a participant in Transocean’s accelerated program to become a fully trained driller. He also shares his perspective as a young, talented person interested and passionate about an energy career.   Before letting the guys get back to work, we of course ask the team about their plans for Thanksgiving Day (including the menu). Each of the guys also gives a shoutout to their loved ones and to their companions also working on Thanksgiving Day. We are so very thankful to the men and women of the Deepwater Atlas and hope everyone on the ship sees this COBT in their honor!   Mike Bradley kicked us off today by highlighting that broader equity market indices continue to rally and are up over 10% from late October lows as they continue taking their trading cue from lower bond yields. He noted that broader equity markets are technically overbought and possess some near-term trading risk. He flagged the surprising Argentinian Presidency election win last weekend by Javier Milei, which initially rallied the Argentinian MERVAL Index by 8% (total of 20% since Friday), and shares of YPF by over 40%. He discussed that crude oil markets are laser focused on the OPEC meeting this weekend and that crude oil prices have caught a bit of a bid this week due to growing optimism that OPEC will not only extend 1mmbpd of production cuts through Q1’24 but also increase the level of production cuts. He al

We are pleased to share with you a unique and special COBT episode. Late last week, The KBH Energy Center in partnership with Vinson & Elkins and Veriten, hosted a discussion in Houston featuring Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Secretary Dan Brouillette. Senator Hutchison is a Founding Member of The KBH Energy Center and most recently served as the US Ambassador to NATO following a distinguished career spanning both the public and private sectors. Secretary Brouillette is an Executive Council Member for The KBH Energy Center, the President and CEO of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) and former president of Sempra Infrastructure. He is a respected leader in the energy, finance and automotive sectors and also served as the Secretary of Energy. The combined extensive experience of Senator Hutchison and Secretary Brouillette in geopolitics and energy laid the groundwork for a wide-ranging and fascinating discussion. We were thrilled to moderate this unique COBT discussion in front of a live audience at Vinson & Elkins’s offices. Senator Hutchison first shares the unique features of the KBH Energy Center including its focus on traditional oil and gas as well as emerging technologies and its multidisciplinary nature with involvement from the business, law and engineering departments at the University of Texas. We discuss the paramount importance of energy security for America, the state of energy policy, geopolitical considerations with Ukraine and Israel, and the importance of American leadership, especially in organizations like NATO. As you’ll hear, Senator Hutchison recently wrote an article for the Atlantic Council that focused on the immediate need for stronger and more deliberate American leadership (linked here). Secretary Brouillette touches on the complexities of the energy transition, advancements in drilling technology and battery storage, the role of natural gas, power demand considerations, and economic challenges the US faces, including its stunning national debt. In our conversation, we also touch on future plans for The KBH Energy Center, the importance of involving young people in discussions about energy and the exciting opportunities they’ll have to shape the industry. In this unique COBT, the fundamental importance of energy to everything we care about as a society was a driving theme. Senator Hutchison and Secretary Brouillette have both made significant contributions to energy policy and the industry and it was both an honor and super thought-provoking to get their perspectives on today’s world. There are some serious issues for us all to be considering. We want to thank our friends at the KBH Energy Center and V&E for including us in the discussion and hope you find it as interesting as we did!

We have been paying a lot of attention to and thinking a lot about power, power costs, power reliability, power systems, access to power, etc., and have focused a number of episodes on these issues. Earlier this June, we had a great conversation with John Bear, CEO of MISO (episode linked here) and in that discussion, we asked John what the country could be doing to better understand the system and reliability issues as a whole. John informed us that there was indeed such an organization dedicated to those issues and that we needed to connect with Jim Robb, President and CEO of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). At John’s suggestion, we reached out and are thrilled to host Jim for today’s COBT episode.   Jim joined NERC in 2018 and has over 35 years of experience in the power and energy sectors across engineering, consulting, and senior leadership roles at Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Northeast Utilities, Reliant Energy, and McKinsey. NERC is a non-profit regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the reliability and security of the North American bulk power system including the continental United States, Canada, and the northern portion of Baja California, Mexico. A detailed overview of NERC’s history is linked here. We were excited to visit with Jim and hear his valuable insights into the evolving and complex nature of the power grid.   Jim first provides background on the structure and mission of NERC and the growth in electricity usage driven by economic and technological developments and changing consumer habits. We then delve into the need for improved infrastructure development, supply chain issues, especially in securing transformers, and the importance of prioritizing transmission development as a vital part of the energy transition. Jim further describes the interaction between NERC and various entities including ISOs, market designers, and PUCs, as well as NERC’s oversight of grid operation entities and their collaborative approach in setting and enforcing standards. We also discuss NERC’s standards, and as you’ll hear, Jim describes them as guidelines for preserving the collective performance of the entire system. In our conversation, we also touch on the challenges and opportunities with new battery technologies, the integration of renewables into the grid, the importance of natural gas for maintaining stability, implications of increasing demand and the need for long-duration energy storage technologies, the likelihood that the cost of electricity increases in the coming years due to the transformation of the grid, and much more. We walked away with a greater appreciation for the work Jim and the team at NERC are doing and appreciate Jim sharing his time and perspective with us today.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that equity markets have had a substantial rally over the last week, attributed to lower bond yields and interest rates. He pointed out the significant drop in WTI crude price this week to $77.50/bbl. and emphasized the importance of WTI maintaining this technical trading level, or risk downside to trading support levels of $72-$73/bbl. He highlighted the plunge in crude oil time spreads due to recent weak Chinese economic data and Mideast turmoil that still seems to be contained. Additionally, he emphasized the significance of the upcoming OPEC meeting on November 26 for crude oil. He highlighted recent datapoints from electric utility Q3 conference calls and noted that a leading Southeastern electric utility was going to be increasing their electricity sales growth over the next five years from prior levels of 0-1% up to mid-high single digits. He further noted that this type of electricity sales uplift is unprecedented and that several other utilities are al

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Dr. Alexis Crow, Partner and Global Head of the Geopolitical Investing Practice at PwC. Alexis is a Council Member of the World Economic Forum, a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at Columbia Law School, and a Former Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council. Her research is focused on financial stability, the future of trade and globalization, global energy markets, and investing in real assets, technology, and the future of the consumer. Alexis joined PwC in 2015 and her team helps companies and investors globally think about portfolio risk and portfolio strategy, investment data analytics and also frequently engages with boards as part of their practice. It was our pleasure to host Alexis and we learned a great deal on our global macroeconomics “magic carpet ride.”   In our discussion, Alexis shares background on her team and the main questions clients are facing across various industries. We discuss PwC’s differentiation with their global macroeconomics expertise, how Alexis divides her time globally and domestically, and PwC’s diverse client base in corporates, energy, media, private markets, and real estate. Alexis shares her perspective on the geopolitical landscape in the more complex world we face today in comparison to when she joined PwC in 2015, including the shifting dynamics between the US and China, the recurring concern of the direction of interest rates and the underlying sources of inflation, the interconnectedness of energy costs and inflation, the implications of the upcoming Presidential election, in particular for energy and immigration, and strategies for international expansion for smaller companies. We also discuss the challenging geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and Latin America and their respective complex dynamics, the US budget deficit and concerns about its impact, how other countries have successfully utilized productive debt for growth, the skills needed in energy companies for future economic growth, the implications of AI advancement over the next 20-30 years, and the emergence of new geopolitical standards. Alexis was gracious with her time and we ended with asking for her thoughts on governmental intervention in free markets over the next decade. We covered a great deal of territory and appreciate Alexis sharing her unique insights with us all.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by emphasizing the anticipation around tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with consensus suggesting the FED will temporarily pause interest rate hikes. He highlighted that WTI crude oil price has recently dropped in the last few weeks and is now trading below levels prior to the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel. He noted the market’s seemingly unwarranted confidence in the stability of the Mideast and further highlighted a handful of key energy transition events over the past week that have set back transition expectations. He wrapped by noting that the Panamanian Government (an investor friendly business regime) recently caved into protestors’ demands for a referendum on the recently approved Cobre Panama copper mine deal, and that this move highlights that governmental risks for the backbone of energy transition (mining) are real. Arjun Murti chimed in with his thoughts on the need for energy companies to consider global expansion with the maturation of the shale industry, the associated challenges faced by companies operating internationally, and the inherent difficulty of the energy business. He also discusses the role of European supermajors in meeting global energy demands and raises the question of how smaller domestic companies can successfully venture into international markets, with the challenges they may encounter without the resources and scale of larger corporations.   We greatly enjoyed our global discussion with Alexis today and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Tha

We were honored this past week to welcome back renowned author Walter Isaacson for a Special Edition COBT episode. Walter is a Professor of History at Tulane University and a Distinguished Fellow at the Aspen Institute. He is also a good friend and someone with whom we are always thrilled to visit.   In his wide-ranging career, Walter has served as the Editor of TIME magazine, Chairman and CEO at CNN, and CEO of the Aspen Institute. As you may know, Walter has previously written on other fascinating people including Leonardo da Vinci, Steve Jobs and Henry Kissinger. Most recently, he has published his latest work entitled "Elon Musk." Mike Bradley, Todd Scruggs and I were so excited to visit with Walter and hear his unique insights on his time spent with Elon, discuss the overall process of researching and writing the book, and dig in to unique anecdotes about Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter (X). We three read the book in preparation for the discussion and can absolutely recommend it. We learned a ton!   Walter begins our conversation by sharing his personal interest in writing Elon’s biography as the next feature in his series of books highlighting individuals ushering in a new era. Walter shares the course of events that sparked the book, starting with a two-hour phone call followed by a tweet from Elon that confirmed his appointment as his biographer. Elon’s tweet put Walter on the roller coaster of being by Elon’s side for two years, witnessing everything from business meetings and interactions with his family to rocket launches and late night factory line visits. We discuss the internal purpose and sense of mission that drives Elon, the urgency he expects from everyone around him, and his unique appetite for risk. Walter and the book take us on a journey from Elon’s childhood days in South Africa to emigrating to Penn to PayPal to SpaceX and up to and including his experience buying Twitter. With a lot of stops along the way! Walter shares the risks Elon took with building and launching the first at-scale private rocket company and the complicated situation he found himself in with Starlink satellites, especially in Ukraine. For those of you who are interested, we previously had the opportunity to visit with Trey Mendez, Mayor of Brownsville and tour SpaceX and found the SpaceX stories particularly interesting (episode linked here). When we weren’t talking SpaceX and everything that came with it, we of course discussed Tesla, Elon’s plunge into AI, what Elon refers to as "the algorithm," and many other aspects of one of the world’s most impactful people. We want to thank Walter profusely for sharing his time and thoughts with us. He clearly had a fascinating firsthand experience pulling together what is an absolutely gripping read.   For those of you in Houston, Brazos Bookstore in partnership with Halliburton Labs and Veriten is hosting a live open-to-the-public discussion with Walter on Sunday, November 12th the Ballroom at Bayou Place at 5:00 PM CT. Tickets must be purchased in advance and are available linked here.   We look forward to seeing Walter in Houston and hope you enjoy the book and discussion as much as we did! Our best to you all.

Chris Birdsall, Director of Economics and Energy at Exxon Mobil, discusses long-term energy demand, forecasts vs. scenarios, emissions outlook compared to Paris-aligned goals, global energy demand growth, renewables and natural gas generation, and challenges in balancing human development with emissions reduction efforts.

We have a Special Edition COBT episode to start the week focused on recent events in Israel. Mike Bradley and I were pleased to be joined by Mark Medin, Executive Vice President of the UJA-Federation of New York, to discuss the organization’s efforts in aiding Israel, providing assistance to the Jewish community broadly, and sharing the UJA’s informational resources with all of us. Through good friends, we first learned about the UJA a couple of years ago and have been subscribed to their mailing list ever since. Just after the attacks on October 7th, through their communications we became instantly aware of how connected they are to the situation as the CEO of the UJA was on the ground in Israel (his first message after the attacks is linked here). Like many of you, we’ve wondered how we can be helpful and get involved with humanitarian support. We immediately thought of the UJA as a resource and are so pleased they joined us on COBT to share their knowledge of the situation. The UJA-Federation’s work has a massive footprint and their reach spans 70 countries to care for people in need, promote justice and inclusion, respond to antisemitism and global crises, and strengthen Jewish life. In response to the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7th, the UJA-Federation has remarkably already raised $100 million for the pressing needs of the people of Israel. In our discussion, we first ask Mark for his perspective on what it’s like on the ground in Israel and how the UJA-Federation is supporting humanitarian efforts with trauma care, relocation assistance, travel, food, housing, clothing, and more. We discuss the organization’s swift response in sending financial support (they have allocated $29 million to various charities already), the impact of false media claims on public opinion, understanding the West Bank, the bad actors versus the majority of peace-seeking citizens in Palestine, concern with global markets’ calmness since the attack, other countries’ involvement and history, the coming together of Jewish communities globally to stand up for the people of Israel, and more. The continuing humanitarian needs remain immense and dire. We greatly appreciate Mark and the UJA-Federation for their work and for sharing their important perspective. The UJA-Federation has several resources available on their website (linked here) to find information on recent developments, community events and local resources, along with the organization’s emergency fund for Israel (linked here). Veriten has made a donation. We hope you find the discussion informative and also helpful in understanding the tragic events of the last two plus weeks. Our best to you all.