Today we were thrilled to welcome our good friend Pat Wood, CEO of Hunt Energy Network. Pat’s extensive career in power and energy includes serving as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas during the administration of President George W. Bush. Additionally, he has held several independent director and advisor roles in solar, power, and utility-related organizations. Pat is also a civil engineer Aggie who went and got a Harvard law degree. Perhaps that’s why he calls himself an armadillo – someone who likes the middle of the road! Under Pat’s leadership, Hunt Energy Network has deployed a portfolio of distributed power assets across Texas. The organization aims to reach a portfolio of 1,000 MWs of batteries and peaker generation attached to the ERCOT grid by 2026. It was our pleasure to host Pat and hear insights from his unique perspective as a former regulator turned industry executive. Pat first provides background on the Hunt Energy Network, the organization’s focus on decentralized power solutions including battery deployment and peaker generation, and the role of gas peaker plants in the energy grid to meet sudden spikes in demand. Pat shares his perspective on the complexities and challenges of managing energy infrastructure, the transition from a regulated utility business to a market-driven approach during his tenure at the PUC, the historical context of power prices, the role of subsidies and ongoing debate surrounding their effectiveness, and the need for innovative thinking and proactive measures to address growing demand for electricity. We touch on market approaches to integrating new technologies into the energy sector, the importance of having a diverse portfolio of power-generating technologies to meet future demands, economic implications of energy policy decisions, the effectiveness of market-driven approaches versus government-led initiatives in shaping energy systems, investing in cybersecurity and grid resilience to protect against potential threats, and much more. Before we wrapped up, we talked about states and countries around the world and the building blocks of getting power policy right. Overall, Pat did exactly what we really needed today as he supplied plenty of optimism and humor in an area (power) lacking in both these days. For some additional power thinking, please click here for a chart Pat provided showing estimated US energy sources, consumption, and “lost energy” from 2021. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting this week was a relatively light week for economic stats, with the PCE deflator release being the only real stat that traders seemed focused on. Broader markets continue to set new weekly highs but could lose some trading momentum in coming weeks given that Q4 earnings (especially AI and Big Tech) are essentially done. On the crude oil market front, he highlighted that WTI (~$79/bbl) is trading at the upper-end of its recent 3–4-month trading range despite large U.S. crude oil inventory builds from historically low seasonal refining runs, but that it will reverse in coming weeks. He noted that physical crude markets have tightened as WTI crude oil time spreads have moved into steep backwardation, and are now trading at levels last seen in October 2023, when WTI price was trading at ~$90/bbl. He flagged that nat gas prompt price has completely reversed gains post Chesapeake Energy’s production cut announcement last week and that the 12-month natural gas strip has rallied, since that announcement, on an expectation that 2024 lower-48 natural gas production will be several bcf per day lower heading into summer. In energy news, he noted energy sector Q4 reporting was essentially complete and also noted another mid-sized E&P merger announcement from last week. He wrapped by h

One of the issues that we have become fascinated with over the last couple of years is power: power availability, power costs, power reliability, growth in demand for power, and the overall complexity of our power systems. We’ve also become extremely interested in how these power issues are meaningfully affecting states, countries and industries. With all of that in mind, we read with particular interest recent publications from today’s COBT guest, Susan Shelley, Columnist and Member of the Editorial Board for the Southern California News Group. Susan covers local, state and national issues across eleven daily papers including the Los Angeles Daily News, the Orange County Register, the Riverside Press-Enterprise and the Long Beach Press-Telegram. Much of the energy transition discussion is around decarbonization and economic justice, extremely important and complicated topics. What is often missing is an examination of the costs of various decarbonization alternatives and the ways in which those choices could be hitting different segments of society. On today’s COBT, we greatly enjoyed discussing with Susan California’s power choices and talking about their costs and their debatable benefits. As we talked to Susan, one thing we reflected on is that everyone loves California. It’s beautiful, it’s creative, it’s a huge part of the US economy and has been a historical driver of innovation from Hollywood to Silicon Valley. In our discussion, we touch on one of Susan’s recent articles entitled "Why California’s Electricity Is So Expensive" (linked here), the disconnect between the perceived benefits of green energy policies and the reality of high energy costs for Californians, and how Californians are reacting to rising energy costs, with some leaving the state due to affordability issues. We discuss California’s political landscape and recent legislation, the solar energy market and how fixed charges for electricity may disincentivize solar investment among residents, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), leaders in the environmental community, utility and infrastructure management, and advocacy for transparency regarding the costs of climate policies. With California planning to outlaw sales of new combustion engine cars by 2035 and to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2045, we reflected on whether California is "leading or lagging" when it comes to power choices. We also took a minute to ask Susan for her outlook for California in ten years. Overall, we are hopeful that California will find a better balance between hitting climate goals and providing affordable and reliable energy and power for their residents and their industry. The current path doesn’t feel sustainable. To kick us off, Mike Bradley noted this coming week would be notably lighter on economic stats versus last week which saw hotter than expected CPI & PPI prints. On the broader equity market front, he flagged that trading this week would be dominated by quarterly results from Nvidia (NVDA), which likely set the tone for broader markets, the tech sector, and AI levered equities. He highlighted that WTI price increased to the upper end of its 3-month trading range and that DOE inventory stats in the coming weeks likely show continued large crude oil builds on historically low refining runs but will likely then reverse. He noted prompt price has declined to ~$1.55/M and the 12-month strip to ~$2.40/M and further noted that most natural gas E&Ps break-even price is above the current strip, and as such, have lowered their 2024 capex guidance. This coming week will be a heavy Q4 reporting week for E&Ps and Oil Service, and investors will be closely monitoring 2024 capex plans. He wrapped by highlighting Intuiti

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Fred Hutchison, President and CEO of LNG Allies, for a comprehensive discussion on an important and timely topic, LNG. Fred founded LNG Allies in 2014 and is a leading spokesman for the US LNG export industry with over four decades of experience in government and public relations. LNG Allies is an independent, non-profit association focused on advancing the interests of the US LNG industry and promoting the benefits of LNG exports. We were thrilled to visit with Fred. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with background on the formation of LNG Allies, the significant shift in the US from being an importer to becoming the world’s largest exporter of LNG in a relatively short period, gratitude from European countries towards the US for supplying LNG in the post Ukraine invasion energy crunch, the ongoing debate about natural gas as a lower impact fuel and its role in the energy transition, the impact of recent geopolitical events and energy prices on energy security and industrial activity, and potential motivations and implications behind the Biden Administration’s pause on LNG approvals. We touch on the shift in resistance to long-term LNG contracts, opposition and lobbying against LNG exports, global trust in the US as a supplier and concerns about reliability with changing administrations, the potential for LNG growth in other countries, the impact of US policy decisions on energy supply, and concern with the lack of understanding among policymakers about energy issues. Fred shares his perspective on the diverse export market for LNG, emerging markets in future LNG demand, challenges faced by countries in accessing financing for LNG projects due to credit rating issues, and much more. We ended by asking Fred for his view on the state of journalism and public debate as a writer himself. It was a wide-ranging and in-depth conversation and we can’t thank Fred enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. In our discussion, you will hear we reference a few items. The IEEJ’s January 2024 report is linked here and the Wall Street Journal op-ed regarding the IEA is linked here. For additional LNG reading, the LNG Allies’ report on US LNG projects and contracts as of February 3rd is linked here and a recent letter to Congress on the LNG Moratorium is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing key economic, equity market, commodity and energy sector thoughts. On the economic front, January CPI printed hotter than expected, pushing the 10-year yield bond up and calling into question the pace of future FED rate cuts. On the broader equity market front, even though the hotter than expected CPI pushed the DJIA down over 500 points, he stressed that market volatility remains historically low and investor sentiment remains bullish. On the commodity market front, WTI price surged to ~$78/bbl. (+$5/bbl. on the week) which is the upper end of its 3-month trading range. He noted several recent crosscurrents effecting crude oil markets and highlighted that U.S. natural gas prompt price plunged to ~$1.65/MMBtu (lowest price level since Covid in 2020 and prior to that 1999) and noted that the 12-month strip traded down to ~$2.50/MMBtu, which is below “most” U.S. natural gas E&Ps break-even price. On the traditional energy sector front, he highlighted this week’s $26 billion merger deal between Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy, w

Today we had the very interesting opportunity to visit with Ernest Scheyder, Senior Correspondent at Thomson Reuters and author of the newly released book entitled "The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives." The book was officially published on January 30th and examines the multifaceted world of metals, mining, and processing with insights from investors, miners, landowners, environmentalists, and politicians. Ernie provided a balanced perspective in telling this complex story and has an extensive background covering both shale in its heyday and now critical minerals/mining for Reuters. As you will hear, our whole team thoroughly enjoyed the book and the discussion.Our session with Ernie spanned the themes and insights in his book including the challenges and controversies surrounding the extraction of critical minerals, the complexity of mining operations, environmental concerns, community opposition, historical events and their implications for present-day mining projects, and the varying perspectives on greenfield versus brownfield mining. We touch on the lack of certainty in long-term projects across different administrations and various departments in the US, projects facing uncertainty with permitting issues, associated issues with outsourcing processing to countries like China, the tough choices the US will have to face regarding resource extraction to ensure national security, the potential for armed conflicts over critical minerals, and developing countries’ desire to develop their own supply chains. Ernie also shares his experiences with environmental groups and conservationists of all types, efforts by the mining industry to establish global standards (for additional reading on "IRMA" – the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, click here), growing consumer interest in responsibly sourced materials, initial feedback Ernie has received on the book, and his overall goal to maintain a neutral viewpoint in the book. We thoroughly enjoyed the conversation!To start the show, Mike Bradley flagged the recent surge in 10-year bond yields due to hotter-than expected recent job stats, which is making traders question the consensus expectation for interest cuts in March. From an equity markets perspective, broader equity indices continue hitting all-time highs with volatility trading near historic lows. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices declined ~$4/bbl. over the last week, but in general remain directionless due to varying global crosscurrents. On the U.S. natural gas front, natural gas traded briefly below $2.00/MMBtu and investors seem to be in little rush to be stepping into natural gas levered equities today but are sniffing around for a 2025 gas-levered trade. From an energy equity market perspective, he indicated that most oil majors have reported solid Q4 results, with one of the bigger themes coming from Euro majors being a modest pivot away from alternative energy spending and favoring increasing shareholder returns. He wrapped by highlighting the boom/bust for the lithium industry, with lithium prices down ~80% from its Nov. ’22 peak and with many lithium equities over the last year down >70%. Todd Scruggs emphasized the complexity involved in the energy transition by noting a recent announcement from Germany to commission 10 GW of new natural gas-fired power plants with the expectation of converting them to hydrogen fuel in the future (story linked here), Germany’s intention to introduce a capacity market feature to their power market, and the overall projected surge in demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, copper, silver, and rare earths.We are e

For today’s discussion we were delighted to welcome back our good friend Robert Bryce. Robert is the author of six books (his most recent being "A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations"), host of the Power Hungry podcast, and a former journalist with more than 30 years of experience reporting on the energy sector. He is a frequent contributor to the energy discussion and his Substack is linked here. Robert has just released his latest docuseries focused on power titled "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" (available to watch here). The series officially debuts today, January 31st, and we were thrilled to visit with Robert to discuss the vitally important examination this docuseries brings to light around the state of power grids both domestically and internationally. "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" is a five-part docuseries with 20-minute episodes titled "Texas Blackout," "Undermined by Enron," "Green Dreams," "Nuclear Renaissance," and "Industrial Cathedrals." In our conversation with Robert, we touch on Canada’s recent nuclear power developments, the challenges and legacy of Enron and Enron-type thinking in today’s electricity market, the importance of government involvement in supporting nuclear energy, the consequence of electricity being treated as a commodity rather than a service, and the crucial role of reliability in the grid. Robert shares his perspective on the impact of permitting delays, regulatory issues and land use conflicts, the difficulties of building infrastructure, including high voltage transmission lines, the need for long-term bipartisan support for nuclear energy, and how the "anti-industry industry" affects energy policy. We also discuss policy as a reliability risk, industrial consumers (i.e. Dow, Microsoft) becoming more interested in nuclear (see recent Microsoft news here), NGO influence, the need for balanced priorities among decarbonization, affordability and reliability, and more. We want to congratulate Robert for the launch of "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" and for his contributions to help change the conversation. It was a fantastic discussion!To kick us off, Mike Bradley highlighted the upcoming FOMC meeting, continued bullish equity market sentiment, rebound in crude oil prices, and broadening out of Q4 energy subsector reporting in the coming weeks. Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision meeting looms large, with most expecting the FED will continue to pause interest rates. Equity volatility is still very low and equity market sentiment remains very bullish. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices continue to rise and the biggest surprise for crude oil markets this week was Saudi Aramco’s decision not to proceed with plans to increase their maximum sustainable capacity up to 13mmbpd, which weighed heavily on the consensus positive sentiment towards internationally levered oil service equities. Brett Rampal flagged Canada’s recent announcement to refurbish the Pickering nuclear plant, extending its operational life by several decades, and showcasing the ability of groups, advocates and the nuclear industry to execute large-scale refurbishment projects efficiently. As mentioned, Robert previously joined COBT on Jan. 5, 2021 (episode linked here) and first on Aug. 11, 2020 (episode linked here). Our COBT episode with Meredith Angwin, author of "Shorting the Grid," is linked here from June 8, 2022. As is almost always the case, this past week was a busy one with many things happening i

Dr. Dan Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, shares insights from Davos and previews CERAWeek. Topics include oil market dynamics, OPEC+ cohesion, global energy forecasts, geopolitics, and the impact of global political figures on economics. The podcast also covers challenges in the oil market, energy transitions, and mineral market complexities.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Rob Gramlich, Founder and President of Grid Strategies. Rob previously oversaw transmission and power market policy for the American Wind Energy Association as SVP and Interim CEO, served as Economic Advisor to FERC Chairman Pat Wood III, and was Senior Economist at PJM Interconnection. Grid Strategies is a power consulting firm headquartered in Washington, D.C. that helps their clients advance grid integration solutions. Given the recent winter weather much of the US and Canada is experiencing, this was a particularly timely discussion and we were thrilled to hear Rob’s insight on power demand growth, infrastructure buildout, cost, and reliability. Our discussion with Rob focused on a report Grid Strategies recently published titled “The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over” (linked here). Rob first shares background on the Grid Strategies team and the inspiration behind writing the report. We cover aspects from the report including the need for the power industry as well as legislators and regulators to acknowledge sharply increased demand forecasts and the need for action, factors contributing to increased power demand, including data centers and AI-driven technologies, the influential players in Washington contributing to shaping policies, regions with notable growth, reliability and resource adequacy, and the need for large-scale robust transmission planning. Rob shares his thoughts on regional differences in power markets and some of the unique market designs, concerns about supply and demand challenges and its effect on rising costs, changing dynamics in the power industry and the power “basketball team” lineup, global comparisons, behind-the-fence power generation, and more. Thank you, Rob, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a lot. Power has undoubtedly become such an important issue and a topic to which we have dedicated several episodes. The most recent episodes include John Bear from MISO (linked here) and Jim Robb with NERC (linked here). Last year, we also visited with ERCOT (linked here). You may remember that in the ERCOT show, we called on our friends at Orennia to provide analytics around Texas power. For today’s discussion, the team at Orennia provided additional data on summer and winter Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for solar and wind and cumulative coal retirements up to 2040 (linked here). To kick us off, Mike Bradley highlighted recent key issues across the regulatory, commodity market and energy/electricity space. On the regulatory front, the U.S. Supreme Court will be hearing arguments this week relating to the historical Chevron Deference decision; a decision to reverse could have huge implications for highly regulated industries, like the energy industry, as power to regulate could shift away from Alphabet-Letter Agencies (like the EPA and others). On the commodity front, WTI oil price continues to be stuck in a bit of a trading range (low-$70s/bbl) given that Red Sea ship rerouting/growing Middle East conflict is getting countered by global crude oil S/D that looks modestly oversupplied in Q1’24 without additional OPEC+ production cuts. He noted that U.S natural gas prices have completely round-tripped this week (down $0.30-$0.35/MMBtu to <$3.00/MMBtu) and further noted that in recent days, U.S. natural gas production has plunged (~103bcfpd last week to a low of ~93bcfpd on Monday and now stands at ~97bcfpd) mostly d

Today was a big one – the first regular COBT of the year, and also the second anniversary of Veriten. Accordingly, we thought about something that would be truly special to mark the occasion and reached back for two COBT All-Stars… on the same show! Today’s episode features two great friends: Dr. Lars Schernikau, energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, strategic advisor, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy” AND Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy (TSE). Rob started TSE in 2019 and provides unique and thought-provoking analysis on energy transition research and technologies. Lars patched in from Dubai and Rob from Tallinn. What a delight it was to have this much firepower in the same discussion. Our COBT buffs may recall Lars previously appeared on COBT in March of 2023 (linked here). For Rob, today’s episode marks his fourth appearance on the show; he most recently joined in July 2023 (linked here), prior to that in November 2022 (linked here), and first in January 2022 (linked here). We simply thought these two gentlemen together would be perfect for global energy 2023 reflection and 2024 speculation and vision. We were not disappointed! To start the discussion, we ask Rob and Lars for their view on the most significant macro factors for the upcoming year. Rob discusses the impact of higher interest rates and puts particular focus on the volatility of today’s energy systems. Lars added his concern with our growing energy inefficiency and what that means for costs. Volatility, energy inefficiency, rising costs and government/corporate/investor decision-making wove in and out throughout our conversation today. We touch on weather’s contribution to energy production volatility, recent warm weather and how it may be masking underlying problems, overall trends in European energy sentiment, China’s self-interested energy policies and their control of raw materials, Rob’s recent work on Harmonics, the current state of energy forecasting and the lack of transparency around models, last week’s appearance by Senator John Kennedy (episode linked here) and much more. We were sorry the discussion had to end and wrapped up by asking everyone for the number one thing they are focused on for 2024 (in Bari Weiss rapid-fire style). We can’t thank Lars and Rob enough for joining. We are honored to call them friends and appreciate all the work they are both doing to make energy, the environment, the inherent trade-offs, and decarbonization broadly more understandable. Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing key themes for 2024. Economically, he highlighted that markets are expecting the FED will engineer a soft landing and cut interest rates beginning in Q1. He noted this scenario was consensus and that this week’s CPI and PPI prints could be the first true test of this “goldilocks” thesis. From a commodity standpoint, he noted that analyst’s 2024 commodity forecasts are much higher than the 2024 commodity futures curve, indicating 2024 estimates may be adjusted lower and could result in some energy equity headwinds in Q1’24. US natural gas production surprised in 2023, and investors are asking when will natural gas-levered E&Ps begin ramping up activity in anticipation of a 2025 LNG ramp. From a crude production standpoint, he flagged that one of the biggest surprises in 2023 was that U.S. crude oil production growth nearly doubled expectations and that in turn raises qu

We hope you all had a fantastic holiday season and that you are excited about the New Year! We had a special guest join us yesterday to kick off 2024. We have been lucky enough to get to know a number of Senators, Governors and Congressional Representatives over the past few years. One that we have been getting to know better recently is Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. Sharp, informed, well read, very funny, and representing a very important energy and industrial state, Senator Kennedy never disappoints when any public policy matter is up for thoughtful debate. We felt particularly lucky he took some time to brainstorm the coming year with us in this Special Edition COBT. As you will hear, Mike Bradley, Jeff Tillery and I explored a broad range of topics with the Senator including domestic and international challenges facing the United States in 2024, the divide in Washington regarding climate issues, Senator Kennedy’s stance on climate change, the role of the government and private sector, the erosion of public confidence in institutions, and potential strategies for restoring that confidence. We also touch on the importance of leadership and transparent communication, power demand growth and infrastructure challenges, and the need to improve the understanding of energy-related issues in Washington. Senator Kennedy shares his perspective on the significance of the United States projecting strength and power and his optimistic outlook on American resilience in overcoming challenges. We are very grateful to Senator Kennedy for sharing his time and valuable insights with us all. Speaking of kicking off the New Year, we attended the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference in Miami this week (agenda linked here). Arjun Murti spoke on a panel addressing “Where Are We in the Commodities Cycle?” I am biased but I thought he did a great job discussing why energy is so important globally, why energy broadly is an attractive sector, and why oil and gas peak demand is nearly impossible to predict. Overall, we saw many friends old and new, and increasingly perceive that Veriten’s mission of “truth in energy” is gaining more visibility and support. Special thanks to Neil Mehta and the entire Goldman Sachs research team for having us and congratulations to them on a great kickoff to the year. We will return next week with the regular COBT schedule. We have a very fun “2-year Veriten Anniversary” show planned! Again, Happy 2024 and thank you for your friendship and support!

Today we were thrilled to visit with Brian Lee, Vice President and Head of US Clean Technology Research at Goldman Sachs, for 2023’s final COBT episode. Brian has been with the firm since 2011 and offers a unique vantage point with his experience covering cleantech. Recently, Brian and his team released their 2024 Americas Clean Technology Outlook (linked here). With 2023 coming to a close, it was fantastic to hear Brian’s end of year reflections as well as observations on the space heading into 2024.   Goldman Sachs will kick off the New Year in Miami, Florida with their flagship Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference starting on January 3rd (agenda linked here). Veriten is excited to be attending. In our conversation with Brian, we discuss Goldman’s approach to cleantech as part of the broader energy team, the cyclical nature of the sector, the gyrations of the last few years, the deeper appreciation investors are now gaining for the complexities of clean energy business models, the unique mix of stocks Brian and his team cover, the global investor footprint, current investor sentiment, and of course how rising interest ratees have greatly impacted his coverage group. Brian also shares his perspective on the total addressable market for solar including residential and utility-scale solar, residential solar market potential, policy impacts on solar, trends in solar energy, the latest IRA detailed guidance from the US Treasury, the outlook for more of such detail, and much more. With revised ratings out earlier this week, we also got Brian to share his specific stock views going into next year. Time flew as we were having fun! We ended with a “lightning round” and asked Brian to share his quick thoughts on China, the water space, and surging power demand growth to close out our conversation. It was a meaty and fantastic discussion. Thank you Brian!   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting year-to-date performance for bonds, commodities and equities. He noted the 10-year U.S. government bond yield began the year trading at 3.9%, peaked at ~5.0%, and has round-tripped back down to 3.9%, mostly because the rate of inflation has been cut in half and expectations that the FED could aggressively begin cutting interest rates beginning in March 2024. WTI price began the year trading at ~$80/bbl, peaked at ~$94/bbl and is now trading at ~$74/bbl. U.S. oil production in 2023 has grown by ~1mmbpd which has been offset by OPEC cuts of ~1mmbpd. U.S. natural gas began the year trading at ~$4.50/MMBtu and is now trading at ~2.50/MMBtu, mostly due to warm early winter weather, above average natural gas storage levels, and U.S. natural gas production that has grown ~5bcfpd in 2023. He highlighted that broader equity markets posted a stellar year with the S&P 500 up ~25% and the Nasdaq up ~55%, while the energy sector posted just a modest gain for the year. The best performing subsectors in 2023 on a "total return" basis were Nuclear (+60%), Coal (+35%) & Refiners (+20%), with the worst being Renewables (-25%) & Batteries/Solar (-30%). He flagged reasons why the Illinois Commerce Commission "rejected" a multi-year integrated grid plan from two key State electric utilities and highlighted the $15B merger agreement between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, further noting that it seems to be facing early opposition from both members of Congress and Unions and could face challenges from CFIUS (foreign investment in the U.S.). Arjun Murti shared a few of his reflections from 2023 including the disparities in energy access worldwide and the massive amount of energy demand 7-8 billion people will need, the continuing significance of energy as a