Today we had the pleasure of hosting the team from Cornerstone Government Affairs for an engaging discussion on energy policy and the upcoming US Presidential Election with Jack Belcher, Principal, John Sandell, Principal, and Sarah Venuto, Principal and Counsel. Cornerstone is an independent bipartisan consulting firm specializing in federal and state government relations, public affairs, political and grant consulting, and business advisory services. Jack, John and Sarah are seasoned experts in navigating the complexities of Washington DC. Jack has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy and previously held roles as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the US House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. John is an expert in tax policy and formerly served the members of the US House Committee on Ways and Means. Sarah previously served as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. We were thrilled to connect with the Cornerstone team to explore this timely and important topic. Our conversation centered on a report Cornerstone published entitled “A Guide to Forecasting Energy Policy In The Next White House: Trump V. Harris” (linked here). Jack first provides background on Cornerstone’s history and growth into the largest independent government relations firm in DC. We touch on the implications of the Chevron Deference case on regulatory agencies, its significance for future energy policy and regulation, and how it will impact Congress and the need for additional technical expertise there. We cover the complexities of Presidential Administration changes and challenges of transitioning political appointments, the future of the Inflation Reduction Act under different administrations, and efforts to streamline permitting and infrastructure development. Jack, John and Sarah offer their insights on how a Trump or Harris administration might approach energy policy and rising energy prices for businesses and consumers. We discuss areas of bipartisan support including nuclear energy, tariffs, alternative fuels, and competition with China, how the next administration might balance state-level initiatives with national policy, the upcoming 2025 Tax Debate led by the Ways and Means Committee, and much more. It was an insightful discussion and we want to thank Jack, John and Sarah for sharing their perspectives and time with us on a busy day in DC. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that broader equity markets were down Tuesday driven by JPMorgan Chase’s cautious comments. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. bond yield traded at ~3.65, down 20-30bps in recent weeks. The U.S. 2yr/10yr yield bond spread flipped back to positive after two years of inversion, this type of flip after a lengthy period of backwardation tends to precede recessions. He noted the importance of this week’s economic reports with August CPI & PPI and Initial Jobless Claims reporting over the next couple of days. On crude oil, he also shared a chart of the WTI crude oil curve and noted that the curve structure had flattened out through 2035, primarily due to concerns over global/China oil demand after being in steep backwardation over the prior 3mo, 6mo & 12mo periods. He concluded by mentioning that crude oil prices were technically oversold, with traders remaining bearish but waiting for significant changes in global oil demand to unwind net short bets. Jeff Tillery built on Mike’s comments and noted the demand concerns and OPEC’s spare capacity reducing upside optionality for long-term investors. Brett Rampal highlighted a significant

We are thrilled to share this COBT episode recorded live from Plant Vogtle featuring John Williams, Senior Vice President of Technical Services and External Affairs at Southern Nuclear, John Kotek, Senior Vice President of Policy Development and Public Affairs at the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), and Bill Flores, Vice Chairman of ERCOT and Veriten Senior Advisor. Brett Rampal and I had the pleasure of traveling to Waynesboro, GA for an exciting tour of Vogtle to see the completed units before sitting down with John Williams, John Kotek and Bill Flores for their perspectives on Vogtle and the broader nuclear energy landscape in the US and globally. Vogtle is the largest generator of clean energy in the US and is jointly owned by Georgia Power, Oglethorpe Power Corporation, the Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia and Dalton Utilities. The plant was named after Alvin Vogtle, a past Chairman, President and CEO of Southern Company and World War II veteran. The film “The Great Escape” was based in part on Mr. Vogtle’s courageous wartime experiences (additional history linked here). In our conversation, John Williams first shares key background on Units 3 and 4 and how they’ve improved upon Units 1 and 2 in terms of technological advancements and safety features. We discuss the massive project of constructing Units 3 and 4, which involved a workforce of over 11,000 on-site employees, the economic benefits of nuclear facilities, the costs associated with building and operating nuclear plants, the US and global outlook for constructing additional AP1000 units, and the impact of nuclear energy development in the US, as well as its broader implications for global energy security. We touch on the obstacles faced during the construction of Vogtle 3 and 4 including regulatory challenges, the Fukushima incident in Japan, the bankruptcy of Westinghouse in 2017, and the impact of COVID-19 in 2020. In building the new units, Southern Company also faced the difficulty of finding an experienced workforce and re-creating a nuclear supply chain with Units 3 and 4 being the first new build nuclear plants in the US in 30 years. The scale of the project and site really struck us and John Williams put that into perspective when he pointed out that the concrete used for the expansion could lay a sidewalk from Waynesboro to Seattle and back. We also cover the safety and security of the facility, concerns over losing expertise as nuclear workers move to other industries with no other nuclear plants currently being built in the US, nuclear waste management, the growing appeal of nuclear energy careers to students, and much more. We were highly impressed with the entire experience and are excited to share our findings with you. Mike Bradley wasn’t able to join the Vogtle field trip but passed along his market observations. He noted that markets (bonds, commodities and equities) all traded lower on Tuesday. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 (-2.2%) and Nasdaq (-3.2%) were both pressured lower on Tuesday due to a substantial pullback in the S&P Technology sector (-4.4%) and shares of NVIDIA (-9.5%). Additional pressure could befall the S&P 500 given that September is historically the “worst” performing month for the S&P 500 by far, with the average September decline (over the last five years) being just over 4%. From a crude oil standpoint, WTI price traded down ~$3.25/bbl (closing at ~$70.25/bbl) on news that Libya was looking to restart ~0.5mmbpd of crude oil exports that had been temporarily curtailed. Goldman Sachs downgraded its long-held bullish copper call (mostly due to signs of slowing Chinese copper demand), which is also one of the main culprits that has been hanging over crude oil markets slowing global oil demand concerns. Given that this week’s COBT focus was on Vogtle, he rounded

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, a former US Ambassador to NATO and a founding member of the KBH Energy Center, joins energy expert John Rutherford for an insightful discussion. They share details about the upcoming Symposium focused on tackling today's energy challenges. Key topics include innovative collaboration in energy education, emerging trends like LNG, and the geopolitical implications of the Ukraine conflict. The conversation emphasizes the importance of resilience and leadership in shaping the future of the energy sector.

Bill Von Gonten, Founder and CEO of W.D. Von Gonten Engineering, discusses his extensive experience in the oil and gas industry, particularly the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina. He compares its vast potential to the Eagle Ford formation, highlighting unique geological advantages and significant export capabilities. Bill also delves into Argentina's economic and geopolitical landscape, exploring how these factors could transform its energy market. His insights reveal a promising future for the region's oil and gas sector on the global stage.

We are thrilled to bring you this Special Edition COBT, featuring an exciting preview of the upcoming Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week taking place from September 9th – 13th. We had the pleasure of visiting with the event’s key organizers including Jane Stricker, Senior VP Energy Transition and Executive Director of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI), Brad Burke, Executive Director of the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship, Dale Winger, Managing Director of Halliburton Labs, and Timmeko Moore Love, Houston General Manager and Senior Vice President of Greentown Labs. Each of these leaders has played a pivotal role in fostering Houston’s energy and technology community and we were delighted to have them join us. Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week will bring together leading venture capital investors, industry leaders, and startups in the energy and climate sectors to showcase innovative companies and technologies that are shaping the future of energy. In our conversation, the group provides an overview of the event and the key players involved, the vision behind the event and collaboration among various organizations in fostering technological advancements, a detailed breakdown of the week’s activities including a block party, industry leadership gatherings, investor speed networking with the Rice Alliance, Halliburton Labs Finalist Pitch Day, and the Greentown Labs Climate Impact Awards Gala to note a few. As you will hear, multiple organizations are planning private gatherings around the week’s events. We also hear from each organization on their latest developments and discuss Houston’s energy and climate tech ecosystem broadly. A detailed schedule and registration details for the Houston Energy and Climate Week is linked here. A special thanks to Jane, Brad, Dale and Timmeko for joining. We hope to see you all in Houston in a few weeks!

Samantha Dart, Head of Global Natural Gas Research at Goldman Sachs, shares her expertise in the evolving natural gas landscape. She discusses the anticipated rise in global LNG capacity and its implications for U.S. natural gas producers. Samantha examines future price trends and the impact of energy transition challenges. She also sheds light on European industrial demand facing rising costs and the complexities of the U.S. LNG market. Dive into insights about how geopolitical factors are reshaping energy strategies and pricing dynamics.

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Erik Milito, President of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA). Erik has served as President of NOIA since 2019 following 17 years in several leadership roles at the American Petroleum Institute and prior experience as an attorney in the Solicitor’s Office of the US Department of the Interior. Erik served on active duty in the US Army as a Judge Advocate from 1995 to 2000 and continued his service in the US Army Reserve from 2000 to 2004. NOIA’s mission is to advance and promote the interests of the offshore oil, gas, wind and ocean minerals industries. We last hosted Erik on COBT in April 2021 (episode linked here) and were excited to reconnect for an update on offshore activity. In the discussion, Erik provides an overview of the NOIA’s role to promote favorable policies related to offshore leasing, permitting, and regulation covering all flavors of energy including oil and gas, wind, carbon capture and storage and minerals. We start the conversation with Erik reminding us of the importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a booming region for the country and then dig into the challenges of offshore wind as an emerging sector. We cover the fascinating contrast of lease sales in the current administration compared to historical numbers. As the episode title mentions, this will be the first year since 1958 without a single federal offshore lease sale. We touch on advances in technology as current operations explore deeper depths / higher pressures in recent years, and we dig into how Erik sees the offshore wind industry developing from the services standpoint over the next couple of years. We also cover the complex issues around insurance and decommissioning platforms. We move on to discuss the positive relationship with the fishing industry and the significant role that the coastal state governments play in the world of the NOIA. Erik shares his perspective on Washington DC, the current climate given the election, and his sense of the public’s mood and attitude towards the various sources of energy that the NOIA is involved in. We wrap up the discussion by getting Erik’s thoughts on the progress of carbon capture over the last few years and the slower pace of offshore versus onshore CO2 projects and he urges that more progress would be possible with the cooperation of the government around permitting and regulatory support. We end the discussion with the areas that Erik is most optimistic about for the NOIA’s membership which includes opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico.  It was a fantastic conversation. Thanks to Erik for joining us! Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that trading in markets last week could be summed up briefly in two words: “volatility & reversal”. On the bond market, he highlighted that the 10-year bond yield was trading modestly lower due to a cooler-than-expected PPI. He also noted that this was a heavy economic reporting week with July CPI set to report on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Sales on Thursday. On crude oil, he highlighted that WTI price was down ~$2/bbl. on Tuesday due to monthly reports from the IEA & OPEC showing minor 2024 demand reductions. He noted that despite these two demand datapoints that WTI still rebounded by ~$6/bbl. over the 5+ trading days due to improving technicals (WTI price back above its 50/100 day moving averages) and growing supply concerns (potential Iranian retaliation against Israel & Ukrainian incursion into Russia). He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that 3mo rolling forward copper prices have declined over the last 4-5 weeks (~$10.5k/MT down to ~$9k/MT) due to continued global demand concerns and elevated LME Copper inventories. He also noted that copper prices were getting bid up this week due to a workers s

For today’s discussion, we were pleased to host Julia Weller, Principal at Energy Law International. Julia has worked in electricity and natural gas regulation and transactions for over 30 years. She served at both Hunton & Williams and Pierce Atwood before starting Energy Law International in 2017. Energy Law International advises governments, private investors, international finance institutions and electricity transmission system operators across Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the MENA Region and Sub-Saharan Africa on energy market reforms and provides support to institutions seeking to invest in emerging energy markets. We were thrilled to visit with Julia and gain valuable insights into the international energy law landscape. We first became connected with Julia after she recently published a very interesting article on 2024 power deregulation in Israel that caught our eye (linked here). In our conversation, Julia first shares how she started her career helping countries with energy reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of US/Western efforts to wean those countries from their dependence on Russian energy. Sound familiar? We discuss the missed opportunity in integrating the then struggling Russia into the global community, Energy Law International’s work to help countries improve legal systems for safer investments and introduce capitalist concepts, the increasing significance of climate change in legal/regulatory reforms and emerging markets, energy market reforms in Israel, and the stability and structure of Israel’s power market. We explore some of the key topics from Julia’s recent article on Israel, Israel’s historical need for self-reliance broadly, lessons from European countries focusing on renewable energy ahead of reliability and affordability, introducing competition in energy markets, and examples of market reform success. We ended by asking Julia for her vision of the energy world in ten years and her response was “a complete course correction.” It was a fascinating discussion. Julia’s answer to the 10-year question was quite direct and is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that prior to this week, U.S. equity markets could best be summed up in one word: “rotation” (out of S&P 500/Big Tech and into the Russell 2000). Global markets so far this week could be best defined as “volatility.” Over the last year, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) had traded in a very tight range, but on Monday, it spiked to a 4-year intra-day high (2020 Covid Pandemic levels) before closing Tuesday at levels just above its recent trading range. So far this week, there’s been a substantial spike in the VIX, a plunge in Bitcoin, a temporary blowout in the Yen Carry trade, and a historical % plunge in the Nikkei Index. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield easily blew through 4.0% (~3.7%). Some were calling for the FED to implement an emergency interest rate cut which would be extremely counterproductive as in Mike’s view it would signal that the FED was behind the curve (and really worried) and could easily lead to an equity market plunge. On the crude oil front, WTI price continued to be pressured because of lack of technical trading support (under 50/100/200 moving averages) and growing global demand fears. Crude oil contract length over the last few weeks has gone from “net long” to neutral, and traders could push it to “net short,” but that’s largely dependent on the magnitude of Iranian retaliation against Israel in the near future. Mike ended by noting that this type of volatility is why energy companies need to continue pursuing pristine balance sheets which will allow them to be oppor

Today we were pleased to host Gerald Kepes, President of Competitive Energy Strategies, and Sudan Maccio, Chief Legal Counsel of PetroTal, for a discussion focused on Venezuelan politics, energy and economics. Jerry has over 40 years of experience as a consultant and petroleum geologist and is a regular contributor to Al-Monitor on the geopolitics of energy in the Middle East and North Africa. Sudan started his career at PDVSA and brings over 30 years of extensive legal experience in global energy across legal, commercial, and leadership roles. We were thrilled to bring Jerry and Sudan together to discuss the recent Venezuelan election. In our conversation, Jerry and Sudan provide an overview of the recent election and the country’s opposition to President Maduro’s claimed victory. We discuss the current situation on the ground with ongoing protests, reactions from neighboring countries, the refugee crisis, how the military has been corrupted to support the ruling party and the potential for shifts in loyalty, and how the crisis is influencing global markets. We explore other geopolitical crises to understand potential strategy and outcomes, the possibilities and implications of foreign intervention, and influence from outside actors including Cuba, China, Russia, Iran and even Hezbollah. We also examine the role of the US in potentially intervening, possible outcomes, long-term implications, and much more. We ended by discussing how we can help the citizens of Venezuela and amplify their humanitarian needs. It was an enlightening discussion, and we are thankful to Jerry and Sudan for sharing their insights with us all. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that U.S. markets, so far this week, are mostly in churn-mode and laser focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. Bond traders expect the FED to leave interest rates unchanged but are hopeful Chairman Powell will indicate that the FED could be positioned, as early as September, to cut interest rates. WTI price has moved lower over the last few weeks due to growing fundamental concerns with 2H’24 oil demand (mostly slowing Chinese demand) but has plunged this week to ~$75/bbl mostly due to “technical” factors (Brent & WTI) breaking through 50/100/200 day moving averages which is leading to an unwind of “net” long interest in the crude complex. On the broader market front, he noted a continued rotation of AI/Big Tech names into the Russell 2000 due to a growing bet that the FED will be signaling a looser interest rate policy. The recent equity rotation could quickly unwind if the FED doesn’t signal a looser interest rate policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting. He also noted Q2 reporting up to this point has been dominated by Oil Services and natural-gas levered E&Ps but is now broadening out to all energy subsectors. He flagged a few key themes coming from Q2 calls including lower onshore oil service activity levels, a continuation of natural gas curtailments, and U.S. refiners highlighting that weaker refining cracks are resulting in global refining run cuts. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his perspective and inquiries to the discussion. We hope you find the discussion as insightful as we did. Our thoughts and prayers are with the Venezuelan people and we are hopeful for a peaceful and democratic resolution. Our best to you all. Thank you for your support and friendship!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. David Gattie, Associate Professor of Engineering at the University of Georgia. In addition to his role in the College of Engineering, David is a Senior Fellow at the University’s Center for International Trade and Security. David has a robust background including 18 years at the University of Georgia and 15 years in the energy private sector across production engineering, energy services engineering, and environmental engineering. His research focuses on the electric power sector, with an emphasis on comprehensive energy policy and integrated resource planning for overall energy and economic security, as well as national security. We were thrilled to visit with David. In our discussion, David provides an overview of Georgia’s unique energy landscape and power generation focus. He explains Georgia’s approach to long-term energy planning through integrated resource plans mandated every three years, the structure of Georgia’s energy sector, the role of the Public Service Commission, and the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the state’s long-term energy strategy. We explore Georgia’s choice to maintain a regulated market rather than deregulating, the effectiveness of various market systems, trends in regulated versus deregulated markets, and the potential risks of an energy transition that neglects national security and industrial competitiveness. David also discusses the Center for International Trade and Security’s efforts, including training students to become strategic thinkers with expertise in nuclear technology and energy security, as well as collaborating with key organizations and experts in the field. We cover the role of trade in maintaining global stability and preventing conflicts, the expected increase in electricity demand, commercial viability and government involvement in nuclear development, optimism for realistic energy policies, and more. As you’ll hear, it was a meaty conversation and David was a fantastic guest with which to explore these important topics. David’s full presentation including the slides referenced in our discussion is linked here. For additional reading, David’s recent report entitled “Competitive Advantage as a National Security Objective for US Civilian Nuclear Power Policy” is linked here. Additionally, if you are interested in reading the book David recommends during the show, “The Lessons of Tragedy” is linked here. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that it’s been a wild week for Presidential politics, which is introducing some added uncertainty to global markets. He noted there could be some increased volatility in the bond market at week’s end when Consumer Confidence and the PCE deflator are set to report. On the crude oil front, WTI price has plunged by ~$2.50/bbl (~$77.50/bbl) so far this week due to WTI price breaking through its 50/100/200 day moving averages and growing concern that Chinese commodity demand is slowing. On the energy equity front, Q2 reporting started last week and was skewed towards Oil Services. This week will also be heavy Oil Services but will also be broadening out to gas-levered E&Ps, Canadian E&Ps, Miners, Euro Oil Majors, Refiners and Electric Utilities. He also noted that equity investors will be paying a lot of attention to gas-levered E&P calls this week to get a sense of how they’re thinking about 2H’24/2025 gas price levels/direction and how that might influence their 2H’24 capex/guidance plans. Jeff Tillery added to Mike’s comments on oilfield services earnin