C.O.B. Tuesday

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Jul 23, 2025 • 48min

"It Can Be A Fascinating And Amazing Future If We Get It Right" Featuring Isabelle Boemeke, Author of "Rad Future"

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Isabelle Boemeke, author of the forthcoming book, “Rad Future: The Untold Story of Nuclear Electricity and How It Will Save the World.” The book will be published on August 12 and is available for preorder here. Isabelle is a passionate advocate for nuclear energy and is also the creator of Isodope, a social media persona she uses to engage and educate the public about the benefits of nuclear power. Isabelle was involved in pushing to save the Diablo Canyon nuclear facility and has visited nuclear sites around the world. We were thrilled to hear her fresh and insightful perspectives. In our conversation, we explore nuclear energy’s rapid shift in public perception and the surge in investment and media attention from just three years ago to today. We discuss the role of advocacy in changing narratives, generational differences in attitudes toward nuclear, and the decline of the organized anti-nuclear movement. Isabelle shares her perspective on international attitudes toward nuclear, the origin of Isodope and her use of social media as an educational tool, the gender gap in nuclear support, and her personal background and journey to becoming curious about nuclear energy. We touch on the nuclear industry’s reception to Isabelle, including the strong support she’s received from women in the field. She shares her strategy for communicating complex nuclear topics to a broader audience, the key risks facing the nuclear renaissance, and the next major hurdles the industry must overcome, particularly challenges around financing and project management. We cover public awareness of SMRs compared to large-scale nuclear, community attitudes toward nuclear, and the strong local support Isabelle has seen near existing plants. Isabelle discusses her continued focus on nuclear for the next few years, where her interests may take her in the future, her 10-year outlook for energy and climate, and more. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that broader U.S. equity markets continue to hit new all-time highs. A major driver of broader markets so far this year has been euphoria surrounding AI/Tech equities and the significant capital spending to support data centers. “Meme stock mania” seems to be rearing its head again and could be an early signal of a frothy equity market. On the energy equity front, he highlighted that both HAL and SLB have reported Q2 results and, for the most part, are guiding towards a weaker 2H25 market (especially NAM oil service pricing). Most oil service investors were hopeful Q2 would be the last quarter for downward 2025 revisions, which could be a reason why oil service stocks aren’t reacting to negative downward 2025 EPS revisions. Electric Utilities are up ~13% this year and continue to be viewed as “growth” stocks. The PJM Capacity Auction posted results after the close, with pricing coming in at ~$330/mw versus last year’s print of ~$270/mw. A handful of PJM exposed IPPs were up modestly after the close on the news. Mike wrapped by noting that SMR equities are up on average ~175% YTD and continue to be electricity darlings. He also flagged today’s news out of Japan that Kansai Electric is reportedly exploring a plan to build the country’s first nuclear plant since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Brett Rampal peppered in his nuclear perspective and questions to the discussion. We are excited to continue following Isabelle’s activities as a positive “influencer” for nuclear and hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. Our best to you all!
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Jul 16, 2025 • 55min

"I’d Love To Double Canada’s Oil Production" Featuring Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta

Today we were thrilled to welcome Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta. Premier Smith was elected in October 2022 and previously served as MLA for Highwood and as Leader of the Official Opposition in Alberta’s Legislative Assembly. Most recently, she was President of the Alberta Enterprise Group. Before re-entering politics, Premier Smith spent several years as a talk radio host and has a diverse background spanning media, public policy, and business. As Premier, she has prioritized economic growth, energy development, and the defense of provincial jurisdiction. It was our honor to host the Premier for an insightful conversation on recent developments in Alberta and across Canada, the future of Canadian energy, and the evolving U.S.-Canada energy partnership. In our conversation, we explore Canada’s historical energy policy challenges, including tensions between federal and provincial jurisdiction over natural resources, and Alberta’s vast oil and gas endowment. Premier Smith discusses shifting federal attitudes and growing recognition that national energy policy needs rebalancing and also outlines Alberta’s recent legislation aimed at streamlining energy project approvals and restoring international investment confidence. We discuss the need for durable, cross-party support to ensure long-term infrastructure investment, Alberta’s experience with Keystone XL, the risks posed by sudden policy reversal, and the recent surge in proposals for AI datacenters in Alberta. Premier Smith shares her perspective on the two sides of Prime Minister Carney (the pragmatic banker versus the GFANZ advocate), the history and impact of international campaigns to defund Canada’s oil sands, and Alberta’s “all of the above” approach to energy abundance. We examine Canada’s lagging economic growth relative to other developed countries, the hope for a shift back to a growth-oriented mindset toward energy development, and the potential for U.S.-Canada pipeline collaboration, particularly if projects are structured to reduce political risk by involving U.S. companies. We cover Canada’s LNG development, including the first shipment from Kitimat and growing momentum in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Quebec, natural gas’s long-term role as both a transition and destination fuel, the importance of integrating with the U.S. pipeline network, the need to resolve U.S.-Canada tariff disputes to unlock investment and advance cross-border energy partnerships, and more. As mentioned, the letter from Canadian energy CEOs to the Prime Minister, “Build Canada Now: An Urgent Plan to Strengthen Economic Sovereignty,” is linked here. Premier Smith’s list of nine priorities for Alberta presented to the Prime Minister linked here. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate Premier Smith for joining. Mike Bradley kicked off the show with commentary on U.S. markets, noting that both bond and equity markets were being negatively impacted by the rise in the 30-year bond yield above 5%. Despite June CPI printing slightly below expectations, U.S. bond yields moved higher on Tuesday. He added that June PPI, set to be reported on Wednesday, could pave the way for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting if it too prints below expectations. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has pulled back ~$2/bbl (to $66.50/bbl) this week. Oil traders were hopeful that President Trump would impose new sanctions on Russian oil (as high as 500%), but he instead proposed a 50-day wait period before imposing a 100% sanction increase. Turning to energy equities, he highlighted that SLB will kick off Oil Services Q2 reporting on Friday, with the other Big 3 OFS names and pressure pumpers reporting
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Jul 9, 2025 • 1h 6min

"We Need Things Codified Into Law Because The Pendulum Swings Every 2-4 Years" - Jack Belcher, Sarah Venuto & Brook Papau

Today we were delighted to welcome Jack Belcher and Sarah Venuto of Cornerstone Government Affairs, along with Brook Papau, CEO of Orennia, for a discussion focused on the energy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). Jack, a Principal at Cornerstone, has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy, having previously served as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the U.S. House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. Sarah, Principal and Counsel, joined Cornerstone in 2023 following roles as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Brook founded Orennia in 2021 and previously served as Managing Director at RS Energy Group (now Enverus). Between Jack, Sarah, and Brook, we had a wealth of insight and expertise that fueled a thoughtful and detailed conversation. In our discussion, we explore the implications of the OBBB for U.S. energy policy, including a shift in emphasis toward fossil fuels (particularly natural gas), along with a renewed focus on reliability and dispatchability. Jack shares his perspective on the “winners” (oil and gas, nuclear, geothermal, and hydrogen) and “losers” (wind and solar), major changes to clean energy tax credits, and the pullback of unobligated funds from federal agencies reclaiming money originally authorized under the IRA. We discuss the introduction of Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions across tax credits, intended to accelerate the reshoring of critical supply chains, and how the current energy tax credit framework increasingly aligns with Trump Administration energy priorities. Brook shares implications for the U.S. grid and power mix, including anticipated delayed retirements of natural gas facilities, a near-term rush to install solar, wind, and storage while tax credits remain in place, severe supply chain constraints for new thermal generation, and growing post-2028 uncertainty as AI-driven demand growth threatens to outpace renewable power additions for the first time. Sarah describes the evolving U.S. energy policy landscape, with regulatory loosening across federal agencies, reduced enforcement capacity due to staffing cuts, and a return to traditional energy provisions, including reinstated onshore and offshore lease sales, lowered royalty rates, renewed support for drilling in Alaska, and accelerated tax treatment for intangible drilling costs. We examine the continued bipartisan support for nuclear, growing cross-party momentum for reshoring advanced manufacturing and critical supply chains, the inflation implications of phasing out tax credits, the partial permitting reforms included in the bill, the importance of codifying reforms into law to avoid policy reversals, early industry reaction to the bill, and much more. As mentioned, a few slides from Orennia’s latest report on the OBBB are linked here. It was an engaging and insightful conversation, and we greatly appreciate Jack, Sarah, and Brook for sharing their perspectives. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting broader equity market performance, recent OPEC+ developments, and President Trump’s surprising proposal to implement a copper import tariff. On the broader equity market front, markets have mostly moved sideways this week after posting all-time highs last week on passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Trumpatility is beginning to resurface ahead of President Trump’s July 9th tariff deadline. Upcoming CPI and PPI reports, due next week, could significantly influence whether the Fed moves to cut interest rates at the July 30th FOMC Meeting. Additionally, Q2 reporting begins
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Jul 4, 2025 • 51min

"We Want To Inspire Kids...You Never Know If There's A Jimmy Doolittle Among Them" - Jerry Scott, Lone Star Flight Museum

We are very pleased to share a special Fourth of July edition of COBT. Earlier in the week, we had the opportunity to tour the Lone Star Flight Museum (LSFM) and to sit down with Jerry Scott, LSFM’s Chief Operating Officer and Director of Flight Operations. The museum draws visitors from all over the world and features flying historical aircraft, many of them iconic military planes. Jerry was named COO in June 2024 and has 40 years of experience in aviation sales as well as people, project, and logistics management. He previously served as a volunteer at LSFM for 15 years and as a crew chief and plane captain for several of the museum’s aircraft. For our conversation, we sat right next to a B-25, the same type of aircraft flown by Jimmy Doolittle and his squadron. This particular plane has been meticulously restored to the exact standards of the Doolittle Raiders’ aircraft, making it an especially unique setting for our discussion. We were thrilled to visit with Jerry and to get to spend time with the team at the museum. Special thanks to LSFM’s CEO Anna Hawley for all her help in particular. In our conversation, we explore the parallels between modern military missions and World War II operations, the extraordinary bravery of the Doolittle Raiders, the unique similarity of the Doolittle mission to the recent US strikes on Iran, and Jerry’s personal journey and passion for aviation. We discuss LSFM’s mission to honor veterans and preserve their stories for future generations through a living, flying museum, the pilot training progression required to fly historic aircraft, the museum’s move from Galveston to Ellington Field after Hurricane Ike, and the critical role of volunteers in keeping the operations running. Jerry shares insights into the museum’s reach, welcoming over 100,000 visitors annually, its rotating aircraft exhibits, and its broader community impact through educational programs and events. We reflect on Jimmy Doolittle’s legacy, the spirit of innovation and sacrifice that defines American aviation history, and the museum’s vision to inspire future leaders. As mentioned, the “Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo” film is available on Amazon Prime (linked here). A huge thank you to Jerry and the team at LSFM for their support in making today’s episode possible. We highly recommend planning a trip to the museum to see the aircraft up close! To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted a handful of key events that influenced markets in 1H25 including President Trump’s import tariffs (Day of Liberation), Trump’s One Big Beautiful Budget Bill (OBBB), the Israeli-Iranian War/U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and OPEC’s substantial/surprising accelerated oil output hikes. For our Canadian friends, we hope you had a fantastic Canada Day on Tuesday. For everyone celebrating the Fourth today, we hope you have a great day filled with food, family, friends, and fun. God bless you, and God Bless America. Have a wonderful Independence Day!
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Jun 25, 2025 • 59min

"It’s Safer To Work In A U.S. Coal Mine Than To Work In A Shopping Mall Or Supermarket" Featuring Jim Grech, Peabody

Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Jim Grech, President and CEO of Peabody. Jim was appointed as CEO in June 2021 and brings more than 30 years of experience across the coal and natural resources space. His career includes leadership roles as CEO of Wolverine Fuels, President of Nexus Gas Transmission, EVP and CCO of CONSOL Energy, and Vice President of DTE Energy. Peabody, founded in 1883, is one of the leading coal producers in the U.S., operating 17 surface and underground mines across the U.S. and Australia. We were thrilled to hear Jim’s perspective on the evolving role of coal in both the U.S. and global energy markets. In our conversation, Jim shares background on his decision to join Peabody during a period of financial and market uncertainty and outlines the company’s progress in recent years, including repayment of $1.5B in secured debt, reinstatement of a dividend and stock buyback program, and reinvestment in U.S. and Australian assets. We discuss how to motivate a coal workforce amid global anti-coal sentiment, Peabody’s asset footprint, the strategic importance of the Powder River Basin (PRB) and the untapped potential to export PRB coal to Asia, the advantages of U.S. coal relative to coal in other parts of the world, and the vast abundance of U.S. coal, with U.S. coal reserves containing more energy than any other nation holds in any single energy resource. We explore the distinctions between thermal and metallurgical coal, global coal demand and outlook, the longevity of coal infrastructure with new plants expected to operate for 30-50 years, the improved environmental footprint of modern coal plants and outdated misconceptions, coal’s role in poverty reduction and economic growth in developing nations, and the push to codify U.S. regulatory changes into legislation for permanence beyond changing administrations. Jim shares his perspective on coal’s role in grid stability and delivering lower, more stable electricity prices, state-level legislative trends supporting reliability requirements for coal plants, the current status and underutilization of the U.S. coal fleet, and renewed interest from industrial users and datacenters seeking long-term, dependable power sources. We examine investor trends including the emerging investor focus on international coal markets, international market dynamics and growth opportunities across metallurgical and thermal coal, and much more. We close by asking Jim for his top takeaway, and he highlights the importance of being open-minded about coal’s net benefits, particularly regarding its role in global energy access, industrial development, and improving standards of living. It was our pleasure to host Jim and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that bond, commodity and equity markets have largely roundtripped to their June 12th closing levels (prior to the Israeli strike on Iran). From a bond market perspective, the 10-year bond yield (~4.3%) has essentially roundtripped and traders are now focused on upcoming economic data. In crude markets, WTI spiked to a high of ~$78.50/bbl on Monday following the U.S. strike over the weekend of Iranian nuclear sites, but has since pulled back to ~$65/bbl amid reports of a “proposed” Iranian/Israeli ceasefire, which is ~$3/bbl lower than June 12th price levels and ~$5/bbl above June trading lows. From an Energy equity standpoint, Energy has also roundtripped and is now trading modestly below (~2%) June 12th levels as energy investors begin refocusing their attention on the 2H’25/1H’26 global oil surplus. From a broader market standpoint, the S&P 500 is now ~0.5% higher than June 12th levels and within 1% of all-time highs. Broader markets are now in the process of transitioning away from Mideast conflict back towards U.S. domestic policy. Mike concluded by noting that investors are beginning to refocus on the odds of Trump’
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Jun 18, 2025 • 1h 6min

"The NRC Is The Gold Standard Of Regulation" Featuring Patrick White, CATF and Nicholas McMurray, ClearPath

Today we’re excited to welcome Patrick White, Group Lead for Fusion Energy Safety and Regulation at the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), and Nicholas McMurray, Managing Director of International and Nuclear Policy at ClearPath. Patrick recently joined CATF and leads the organization’s international working group focused on fusion energy safety, waste, and non-proliferation. He holds a Ph.D. in Nuclear Science and Engineering from MIT and previously served as Research Director at the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. Niko is an expert in industrial policy, nuclear energy policy, and regulation. He has been with ClearPath since 2019 and formerly served as a Materials Engineer at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A few weeks ago, Veriten partnered with CATF and ClearPath to publish a paper calling out reforms to NRC processes and procedures to accelerate the deployment of new nuclear reactors; establishing a more efficient regulatory framework for new and advanced reactors (paper linked here). We were thrilled to host Patrick and Niko for a discussion on the paper and broader trends in the nuclear landscape. Brett Rampal, Senior Director of Nuclear and Power Strategy at Veriten, joined for the conversation and led Veriten’s contribution to the paper. In our discussion, Patrick and Niko share background on their organizations’ missions and long-standing support for nuclear. We explore the need to demystify and modernize NRC processes to accommodate next-generation nuclear technologies, challenges with current regulatory frameworks originally designed for traditional large light-water reactors, the role of licensing structures and the value of more flexible licensing pathways, and the motivation behind their recent paper, which aims to provide actionable, bipartisan policy suggestions to enable nuclear deployment at scale. We examine the historical development and regulatory evolution of power versus non-power reactor definitions, how those distinctions have blurred over time, the shift toward performance-based regulation, and the commercial implications of licensing small reactors under Class 103. We discuss the importance of consistent terminology and regulatory clarity in advancing new nuclear technologies, whether the NRC’s internal culture can evolve to support faster deployment without compromising safety, the NRC’s broader oversight role beyond reactors including medical and industrial applications of radioactive materials, and congressional support for NRC modernization. Patrick and Niko provide insights into international regulatory approaches, such as performance-based models used in the UK, France, and Canada, the critical need to earn public trust through rigorous and efficient safety regulation, the feasibility of President Trump’s goal of having 10 new reactors under construction by 2030, challenges beyond regulation, and much more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the S&P 500 closed modestly lower on the day, while crude oil prices caught a bid amid escalating tensions in the Mideast. On the bond front, the 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) has pulled back over the last few days as markets await the outcome of the June 18th FOMC rate decision meeting. Consensus is for no change in interest rates at this FOMC meeting, but a cut is expected at the September meeting. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI price has spiked by >$10/bbl to ~$74/bbl over the last five trading days due to the Iranian-Israeli military conflict. While Veriten isn’t in the business of making short-term crude oil price calls based on supply disruption threats, we continue to emphasize that global oil demand growth projections are a more vital determinant for intermediate-term oil prices. On the global S/D front, the IEA recently modeled global oil demand peaking in 2029 (China in 2027), contra
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Jun 11, 2025 • 58min

"The Senate Has The Ability To Think About Things In A More Rational Way" With Dr. Ken Medlock, Baker Institute

Dr. Ken Medlock, a leading expert in energy policy from Rice University’s Baker Institute, shares his insights on critical energy issues. He discusses the complexities of oil market dynamics, touching on U.S. production forecasts and Middle Eastern strategies, particularly Kuwait's expansion plans. The conversation dives into the challenges and future potential of carbon capture technology. Medlock also emphasizes the importance of diverse energy strategies amidst shifting U.S. policies and geopolitical tensions influencing global energy markets.
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Jun 4, 2025 • 1h 2min

"Durability Is The Coin Of The Realm" Featuring Mike Sommers, American Petroleum Institute

Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, draws on his extensive experience to discuss the evolving landscape of energy policy. He highlights natural gas's transformation from a waste product to an essential 'forever fuel.' The conversation delves into the urgent need for streamlined energy infrastructure permitting and the impact of the Supreme Court's recent rulings. Additionally, they tackle the challenges of workforce training in the oil and gas sector and the significance of domestic energy policies for national security.
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May 28, 2025 • 1h 2min

"It’s Probably Time For A DOGE Approach To California Government" With Michael Mische, USC School of Business

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michael Mische, Associate Professor of Management at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. Michael joined the USC faculty in 1997 and also serves as CEO and a Managing Member of the Synergy Consulting Group. At Marshall, he leads and coordinates the school’s undergraduate and graduate curricula in management consulting. Our interest in connecting with Michael was sparked by his recent report, “A Study of California Gasoline Prices” (linked here). The study presents a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the persistently high retail gasoline prices in California. We were thrilled to explore the findings of the report and hear Michael’s broader perspective on California’s energy and power landscape. In our discussion, we cover the main themes of Michael’s report, beginning with his long-standing interest in the oil and gas industry dating back to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. We explore the study’s key finding that there is no evidence of price manipulation or gouging by refiners, and Michael’s conclusion that California’s high gasoline prices are a direct result of deliberate policy choices. Michael explains why policymakers pursue these strategies, why Californians tolerate higher energy costs, and how these policies create economic strain for lower income residents. We cover the broader economic impact of California energy policies, including the departure of more than 360 major companies since 2018, the national security risks posed by refinery closures that supply a significant share of aviation fuel and diesel to military operations in California, Arizona, and Nevada, how the push for renewable energy has become a primary driver of rising energy costs, and the underlying economics of the refining industry. We discuss the broader effects of refinery shutdowns on infrastructure like roads and airports, California’s increasing dependence on foreign oil, the potential for in-state production growth, proposed policy solutions, the risks of state-run refinery models, how Middle Eastern investors are increasingly targeting U.S. real assets and innovation sectors, and more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that broader U.S. equities surged ~2.0% on Tuesday, largely driven by news that President Trump would be extending the deadline on EU tariff increases from June 1 to July 9. Equity markets also rose due to the unexpectedly high m/m increase in May Consumer Confidence. On the bond market front, 10-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields traded lower by 8-10bps, mostly due to a plunge in Japanese bond yields despite optimistic news on the EU tariff front and Consumer Confidence. In commodities, WTI price pulled back ~$1/bbl (~$61/bbl) on growing concern that OPEC+ will raise July oil production by another ~0.4mmbpd. Iranian nuclear talks underway in Rome have sparked cautious optimism for a breakthrough, which might prove to be another “marginal” headwind for crude prices. On the U.S. policy front, Mike highlighted last week’s passage of a House Tax Bill which surprisingly gutted renewable/solar subsidies and sent solar equities plunging. Passage through the Senate isn’t guaranteed and could potentially extend/reverse the timeline on some of the solar subsidies. On the electricity front, it was a great week for nuclear and SMR equities (handful of SMR equities up ~40%) following four nuclear-focused Executive Orders from the Trump Administration. He also pointed out the recent eye-popping MISO Summer Capacity Auction (~$666/mw) versus last year’s auction price (~$30/mw) which will lead to much higher utility bills. He closed by highlighting California’s current refinery capacity of ~1.6mmbpd and how the two most recent refinery closure announcements (tota
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May 21, 2025 • 1h 4min

"Reserves Are Not Geopolitically Risk Free Anymore" Featuring Daan Struyven & Lina Thomas, Goldman Sachs

Today we had a fantastic conversation with Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research, alongside his colleague Lina Thomas, Commodities Strategist, with Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led the Goldman Global Economics team as well as the firm’s Canada Economics research effort. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT. Lina joined Goldman after earning her Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard, where she focused on safe-haven assets. We were thrilled to welcome these Ph.D. powerhouses for a deep dive into a topic we haven’t yet explored on COBT – the gold markets and how they intersect with oil, gas, copper, interest rates, tariffs, geopolitics, central banks, structural market changes, and more. In our discussion, Lina provides a detailed overview of the historical inverse relationship between gold and interest rates, and highlights the unusual strength of the gold rally that began in 2022. She describes that the rally was triggered by the freezing of Russian central bank assets in February 2022, which prompted central banks, particularly those geopolitically aligned or close to Russia, to increase gold purchases to reduce reliance on politically vulnerable reserve assets. Lina explains that in addition to modest investor inflows, ongoing central bank demand has played a critical role in sustaining gold’s price rise and discusses how geopolitical proximity is a key predictor of central bank gold buying. We explore Goldman’s approach to estimating actual central bank purchases, which are underreported in official data, Russia’s gathering of gold reserves ahead of its invasion of Ukraine, the effects of the war and subsequent sanctions, and how Russia rerouted its gold exports similar to its post-sanction oil trade. Daan outlines Goldman’s copper market outlook, including their view on proposed copper tariffs, the anticipated supply deficit by 2026 due to limited investment in new projects, their copper price forecast, and the key short-term drivers influencing copper prices. We cover gold’s unique role as a stock rather than a flow asset, with only about one percent of tradable gold coming from annual mine supply, why central banks favor gold over silver, Goldman’s four structural investment themes (Dollar Diversification, Defense Spending, Disinvestment in Supply, and De-risking Energy Systems), the firm’s crude oil outlook over the next year, and much more. We greatly appreciate Daan and Lina for sharing their time and perspectives. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that “Trumpatility” has faded considerably, with the S&P 500 Volatility Index now trading near year-to-date lows. Ironically, this introduces some degree of risk as broader markets are now technically overbought. Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt by one notch this past week but U.S. bonds and equities shrugged it off, mostly because U.S. bonds don’t typically move on ratings changes, but more so on inflation and employment growth, while broader equities are driven mostly by forward earnings estimates. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly on the U.S. debt downgrade while Bitcoin and gold prices are trading near all-time highs, likely a reflection of growing U.S. debt levels. He wrapped up with a roundup of notable Energy & Electricity headlines, including: Blackstone Infrastructure’s $11.5 billion acquisition of TXNM Energy; Strathcona Resource’s $6 billion takeover offer for MEG Energy; Phillips 66’s Proxy vote battle with Elliott (involving four board nominations); Trump’s unexpected reversal of his recent shutdown of Equinor’s Empire Wind 1 project off Long Island; and the recent decline in Permian oil rig count and the potential associated gas growth implications. Jeff Tillery also joined and peppered in his thoughts to the discussion. We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all!

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