C.O.B. Tuesday

Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, draws on his extensive experience to discuss the evolving landscape of energy policy. He highlights natural gas's transformation from a waste product to an essential 'forever fuel.' The conversation delves into the urgent need for streamlined energy infrastructure permitting and the impact of the Supreme Court's recent rulings. Additionally, they tackle the challenges of workforce training in the oil and gas sector and the significance of domestic energy policies for national security.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michael Mische, Associate Professor of Management at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. Michael joined the USC faculty in 1997 and also serves as CEO and a Managing Member of the Synergy Consulting Group. At Marshall, he leads and coordinates the school’s undergraduate and graduate curricula in management consulting. Our interest in connecting with Michael was sparked by his recent report, “A Study of California Gasoline Prices” (linked here). The study presents a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the persistently high retail gasoline prices in California. We were thrilled to explore the findings of the report and hear Michael’s broader perspective on California’s energy and power landscape. In our discussion, we cover the main themes of Michael’s report, beginning with his long-standing interest in the oil and gas industry dating back to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. We explore the study’s key finding that there is no evidence of price manipulation or gouging by refiners, and Michael’s conclusion that California’s high gasoline prices are a direct result of deliberate policy choices. Michael explains why policymakers pursue these strategies, why Californians tolerate higher energy costs, and how these policies create economic strain for lower income residents. We cover the broader economic impact of California energy policies, including the departure of more than 360 major companies since 2018, the national security risks posed by refinery closures that supply a significant share of aviation fuel and diesel to military operations in California, Arizona, and Nevada, how the push for renewable energy has become a primary driver of rising energy costs, and the underlying economics of the refining industry. We discuss the broader effects of refinery shutdowns on infrastructure like roads and airports, California’s increasing dependence on foreign oil, the potential for in-state production growth, proposed policy solutions, the risks of state-run refinery models, how Middle Eastern investors are increasingly targeting U.S. real assets and innovation sectors, and more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that broader U.S. equities surged ~2.0% on Tuesday, largely driven by news that President Trump would be extending the deadline on EU tariff increases from June 1 to July 9. Equity markets also rose due to the unexpectedly high m/m increase in May Consumer Confidence. On the bond market front, 10-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields traded lower by 8-10bps, mostly due to a plunge in Japanese bond yields despite optimistic news on the EU tariff front and Consumer Confidence. In commodities, WTI price pulled back ~$1/bbl (~$61/bbl) on growing concern that OPEC+ will raise July oil production by another ~0.4mmbpd. Iranian nuclear talks underway in Rome have sparked cautious optimism for a breakthrough, which might prove to be another “marginal” headwind for crude prices. On the U.S. policy front, Mike highlighted last week’s passage of a House Tax Bill which surprisingly gutted renewable/solar subsidies and sent solar equities plunging. Passage through the Senate isn’t guaranteed and could potentially extend/reverse the timeline on some of the solar subsidies. On the electricity front, it was a great week for nuclear and SMR equities (handful of SMR equities up ~40%) following four nuclear-focused Executive Orders from the Trump Administration. He also pointed out the recent eye-popping MISO Summer Capacity Auction (~$666/mw) versus last year’s auction price (~$30/mw) which will lead to much higher utility bills. He closed by highlighting California’s current refinery capacity of ~1.6mmbpd and how the two most recent refinery closure announcements (tota

Today we had a fantastic conversation with Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research, alongside his colleague Lina Thomas, Commodities Strategist, with Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led the Goldman Global Economics team as well as the firm’s Canada Economics research effort. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT. Lina joined Goldman after earning her Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard, where she focused on safe-haven assets. We were thrilled to welcome these Ph.D. powerhouses for a deep dive into a topic we haven’t yet explored on COBT – the gold markets and how they intersect with oil, gas, copper, interest rates, tariffs, geopolitics, central banks, structural market changes, and more. In our discussion, Lina provides a detailed overview of the historical inverse relationship between gold and interest rates, and highlights the unusual strength of the gold rally that began in 2022. She describes that the rally was triggered by the freezing of Russian central bank assets in February 2022, which prompted central banks, particularly those geopolitically aligned or close to Russia, to increase gold purchases to reduce reliance on politically vulnerable reserve assets. Lina explains that in addition to modest investor inflows, ongoing central bank demand has played a critical role in sustaining gold’s price rise and discusses how geopolitical proximity is a key predictor of central bank gold buying. We explore Goldman’s approach to estimating actual central bank purchases, which are underreported in official data, Russia’s gathering of gold reserves ahead of its invasion of Ukraine, the effects of the war and subsequent sanctions, and how Russia rerouted its gold exports similar to its post-sanction oil trade. Daan outlines Goldman’s copper market outlook, including their view on proposed copper tariffs, the anticipated supply deficit by 2026 due to limited investment in new projects, their copper price forecast, and the key short-term drivers influencing copper prices. We cover gold’s unique role as a stock rather than a flow asset, with only about one percent of tradable gold coming from annual mine supply, why central banks favor gold over silver, Goldman’s four structural investment themes (Dollar Diversification, Defense Spending, Disinvestment in Supply, and De-risking Energy Systems), the firm’s crude oil outlook over the next year, and much more. We greatly appreciate Daan and Lina for sharing their time and perspectives. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that “Trumpatility” has faded considerably, with the S&P 500 Volatility Index now trading near year-to-date lows. Ironically, this introduces some degree of risk as broader markets are now technically overbought. Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt by one notch this past week but U.S. bonds and equities shrugged it off, mostly because U.S. bonds don’t typically move on ratings changes, but more so on inflation and employment growth, while broader equities are driven mostly by forward earnings estimates. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly on the U.S. debt downgrade while Bitcoin and gold prices are trading near all-time highs, likely a reflection of growing U.S. debt levels. He wrapped up with a roundup of notable Energy & Electricity headlines, including: Blackstone Infrastructure’s $11.5 billion acquisition of TXNM Energy; Strathcona Resource’s $6 billion takeover offer for MEG Energy; Phillips 66’s Proxy vote battle with Elliott (involving four board nominations); Trump’s unexpected reversal of his recent shutdown of Equinor’s Empire Wind 1 project off Long Island; and the recent decline in Permian oil rig count and the potential associated gas growth implications. Jeff Tillery also joined and peppered in his thoughts to the discussion. We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all!

Dr. Francesco Sassi, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Oslo and expert in energy geopolitics, shares compelling insights on the intricate interplay between energy and global politics. He discusses the rising political risks in energy markets and China's growing influence. The conversation highlights Spain's leadership in clean energy, the dynamics of OPEC+, and the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war. Sassi also explores how energy strategies are intertwined with diplomacy, revealing how these elements shape international relations amidst ongoing tensions.

Today we were thrilled to welcome our good friend Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, former Deputy Director for Batteries and Critical Materials at the U.S. Department of Energy, to our offices in Houston. Ashley brings more than a decade of experience in acquiring, financing, and developing greenfield and brownfield mining projects, with deep expertise across the global mining supply chain. She served in the Biden Administration from January 2024 to January 2025, overseeing deployment of capital and tax incentives into the U.S. battery supply chain. Prior to her government service, Ashley was Co-Founder and President of Black Mountain Metals and Black Mountain Exploration. We were delighted to host Ashley for a timely and insightful conversation on the state of the global metals and minerals landscape. In our discussion, we explore the bipartisan consensus on reducing U.S. dependence on foreign-sourced metals and minerals, particularly from China. Ashley shares her experience at the DOE and her goal to buy down demand risk to attract private capital, especially for large-scale processing infrastructure. We discuss the surge of investment and momentum in lithium brine projects in the U.S. along with efforts to accelerate domestic mining, including the Trump Administration’s move to expedite permits for 20 projects. Ashley outlines the tension between the desire to onshore more production and the current lack of downstream markets outside China, which remains a bottleneck for full supply chain development in the U.S. She shares innovative developments in processing methods, including China’s nickel conversion efforts in Indonesia, the potential for copper to be codified as a critical mineral in upcoming legislation, and why permitting reform and seabed mining are bandaids for the larger challenge of unit economics in the U.S. Ashley further explains the difficulty in making margins at each U.S. supply chain stage, especially when compared to China’s vertically integrated structure and non-profit-driven strategy, the benefits of targeted tariffs to protect nascent U.S. industries, and the lack of U.S. processing as the true choke point. She highlights the decline of U.S. stockpiles from Cold War levels to today, how the materials once stockpiled fueled the Allied victory in WWII, the depleted reserves in the U.S. today, the complexities involved in the U.S. minerals agreement with Ukraine, challenges in raising capital for mining projects, and the limited investor base. We also examine how structured government support will be essential for the U.S. to be competitive, Ashley’s next steps in her pursuit of sourcing and supporting “weird and wonderful” mining transactions, and more. As you will hear, Ashley offers a unique mix of policy insight, deep market understanding, and a genuine passion for rebuilding the U.S. industrial base. We’re thankful for her time and insights. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that broader markets were down marginally for the day and that “Trumpatility” appears to be temporarily subsiding. He highlighted a handful of notable developments in energy markets over the past week, first being OPEC+ agreeing to another ~400kbpd increase in June oil production in addition to the ~400kbpd production increase in May, both of which are being done into an oversupplied global oil market. Saudi seems to be the main driver of the OPEC+ increases and offered several reasons for their actions at this juncture. The second development relates to a big change in E&P mindset that’s occurred over the last couple of weeks at these lower oil price levels (high $50s/low $60s). A handful of E&Ps recently announced cuts to their 2025 capital programs (CTRA, EOG & FANG) and others are fully expected to announce cuts this week and next. The final development was Diamondback Energy’s recent Letter to Stockholders (linked

Today we were delighted to host the team from the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), a leading Washington NGO dedicated to bringing stakeholders together to address critical policy issues for the U.S. and find areas of alignment for action. Joining us for the session are Margaret Spellings, President and CEO, along with her colleagues David Hill, Executive Vice President of Energy, and Bill Hoagland, Senior Vice President. Margaret became CEO of BPC in 2023 and brings extensive leadership experience at both the state and federal levels, most recently serving as President & CEO of Texas 2036. Earlier in her career, Margaret served as White House Chief Domestic Policy Advisor, Senior Policy Advisor and Secretary of Education under George W. Bush. David has more than 25 years of energy experience, having served as General Counsel of the U.S. DOE and as DOE’s Deputy General Counsel for Energy Policy during the Bush administration, as well as Executive Vice President and General Counsel of NRG. Bill focuses on fiscal, health, and economic policy at BPC, following a long tenure on the U.S. Senate Staff and as VP of Public Policy at CIGNA Healthcare before joining BPC in 2012. We were thrilled to visit with Margaret, David, and Bill for their latest insights from Washington. In our conversation, Margaret first outlines the BPC’s team structure and its dual focus on research and advocacy through bipartisan engagement on Capitol Hill. We discuss setbacks in U.S. education policy, including how 20 years of bipartisan federal accountability progress under Presidents Bush and Obama have been undone in recent years, highlighting the need to refocus on reading and evidence-based instruction. Bill provides an overview of the U.S. national debt, noting that politically untouchable programs dominate the budget and leave little room for meaningful reform. He flags that interest payments on the debt now exceed defense spending and describes the slow-building debt and energy crises as “termites under the porch,” noting that Washington only acts under strong leadership or in response to crisis. David shares his perspective on the need for durable, stable energy policy and the importance of long-term policy certainty to encourage private sector investment in infrastructure. We explore BPC’s efforts to modernize education and workforce policy to reflect today’s labor market, how private conversations often reveal more bipartisan consensus than public discourse suggests, and how BPC facilitates those critical dialogues. We also touch on the disconnect between Washington and the rest of the nation, the need to clearly communicate how policy failures impact everyday Americans, the challenges posed by outdated government technology, and much more. Thank you, Margaret, David, and Bill, for sharing your insights and expertise with us all! Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates focused on Trump’s first 100 days, Canadian election results, and the recent Spain/Portugal power outage. The best word to describe Trump’s first 100 days would be volatility, or as we have aptly named it, Trumpatility! The 10yr bond yield has fallen ~40bps (to 4.2%) over this timeframe and the U.S. dollar has depreciated by ~6%. Two commodity standouts are WTI price, which has plunged ~$15/bbl to ~$61/bbl, and gold, up ~22% to ~$3,300/oz. From a broader equity standpoint, the S&P 500 was down ~8%, Nasdaq down ~10% and Russell 2000 down ~14%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index spiked by ~50% (and ~275% at its April 7th volatility peak). The Energy sector was down ~11% with Oil Services down ~28%, E&Ps down ~21%, Refiners down ~15%, U.S. Oil Majors down ~10%, Midstream down ~5% and Alternative Energy up ~5%. Electric Utilities were up ~2% while IPPs/Power Index was down ~18%. Regarding the Canadian election, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party eked out a narrow win Monday night against Poilievre’s Conservative Party but fell short of a majority in t

Today we had the distinct pleasure of hosting Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. Mark joined Phillips 66 as President and COO in 2021 and assumed the CEO role in July 2022. Prior to that, he served as the President and CEO of Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (CPChem), where he held several senior leadership roles, including Executive Vice President of Olefins and Polyolefins, Senior Vice President of Specialties, Aromatics and Styrenics, and Vice President of Corporate Planning and Development. Mark began his career at Phillips Petroleum and holds a doctorate in Chemical Engineering. Beyond his leadership at Phillips 66, he serves on the Executive Committee of the American Petroleum Institute and is a Board Member of the Greater Houston Partnership and several other nonprofit organizations. Mike, Arjun and I were thrilled to host Mark for this Special Edition to discuss Phillips 66’s recent performance, his strategic vision for the company, insights into today’s energy landscape, and the ongoing debate with Elliott Management. In our discussion, Mark shares background on his career and transition to CEO, his early priority of addressing improvements in Phillip 66’s refining segment, and the cultural transformation to re-instill pride and competitiveness amongst refiners, which involved engaging employees at all levels and investing in strategic capital projects to fix operational bottlenecks and improve reliability and earnings. We discuss Bob Pease’s addition to the board, who was originally nominated through Elliott’s engagement, and how he shifted from being skeptical to supportive of the company’s strategy, execution, and focus on shareholder returns. We explore the history and structure of CPChem, the benefits of Phillips 66’s integrated business model during times of volatility and potential downturns, and the company’s industry-leading safety performance, which ties safety directly to employee compensation. Mark shares his perspective on why maintaining a diversified portfolio across refining, midstream, and chemicals is strategically and financially advantageous, as well as the optimization and regulatory advantages of an integrated structure. We touch on Phillips 66’s strong ROCE versus peers, activist pressure to sell midstream assets for a higher multiple, growth across their midstream business, and broader global trends toward integration rather than asset breakups. Mark highlights the company’s refining performance improvement, the rationale behind merging PSXP and DCP assets, efforts to attract generalist investors back to the energy sector by demonstrating consistent earnings, Phillips 66’s philosophy of keeping assets “for sale every day” to ensure focus on shareholder value, and much more. We greatly appreciate Mark for sharing his candid insights into a complex and highly public debate. As you will hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Phillip 66’s Investor Relations presentation entitled “Delivering Value & Demonstrating Commitment,” released Monday, April 28, is linked here. Veriten’s COBT episode featuring Doug Terreson is linked here. Thanks to Mark for joining us for an insightful discussion and thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

In this engaging conversation, Jason Kenney, former Alberta Premier and seasoned public servant, shares his insights as Canada approaches its federal election. He discusses key issues affecting the election, including declining popularity of Trudeau, economic concerns like weak GDP growth, and housing challenges. Kenney analyzes the rising importance of energy policies, particularly how they shape Canada's relationship with the U.S. He also debates the potential shifts in trade dynamics and the need for cooperative energy strategies moving forward.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Hambling for a sweeping discussion on drone technologies and their applications. David is a journalist, author, and defense technology expert with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED, and more (for an archive of David’s writings, click here). David is the author of “Swarm Troopers” and has researched the history of drones and in particular, has zeroed in on the potential impact of smaller drones in both military and consumer applications. We were thrilled to visit with David. In our conversation, David shares his background in military technology and how his previous book, “Weapons Grade,” led him to explore the rise of drones. We discuss how the military lost its tech lead due to rapid commercial innovations, particularly as mobile phone technologies enabled the development of small, cheap, and highly capable drones. David explains the evolution of drone use, from reconnaissance tools to precision combat systems, and how this transformation has played out dramatically in the Russia-Ukraine war, where nearly two-thirds of Russian fatalities on Ukrainian soil are reportedly caused by small drones. We explore the shift from human-operated drones to autonomous systems, the difficulty of defending against small, agile drones, and the growing threat that they pose to critical energy and transportation infrastructure. David shares background on the historical cultural bias within militaries that sidelined drones in favor of piloted aircraft, until the CIA’s early adoption of drone strikes eventually forced the Air Force to adopt them, as well as the recent surprising Trump Administration decision to continue the Boeing F-47 contract. We cover the regulatory challenges facing drone adoption, particularly the limitations on beyond visual line of sight operations, public concerns around safety and privacy, and global developments including Dubai’s plans to pilot flying taxi drones by 2027. David outlines China’s dominance in the global drone market, applications of drones including infrastructure inspection, delivery services, reforestation, and the unique Ukrainian “Victory Drone” program that encourages civilians to help war efforts by building drones at home for frontline use. We also touch on China’s demographic challenges and how its shrinking and aging population is fueling the nation’s strategic investment in AI, robotics, and autonomy, the critical role of software in making humanoid robots useful, especially with using assistive tech for elderly care, and more. We end with David’s thoughts on what the drone and robotics landscape might look like in ten years. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion that raised both the opportunities and the ethical complexities involved. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that from a broader equity market standpoint, “Trumpatility” remains alive. Despite S&P volatility being cut in half over the last five trading days, it’s still higher than average and will likely stay elevated until we begin to see tariff deals signed. Equity markets feel much worse than reality, given that the S&P 500 is only down ~7% year to date. On the International equity front, Argentina received a $20 billion IMF package last Friday, which could be an extremely important development for the country’s long-term growth. On Monday, Argentina allowed its currency to freely float (between 1,000-1,400 pesos per dollar) for the first time in a very long time. In response, Argentinian 10yr bond yields plunged this week by ~150 basis points, and the Argentina equity market (Merval) and major Argentinian Energy equities have both rallied on the IMF deal. From an oil market standpoint, WTI looks to have temporarily stabilized in the low-$60s per barrel range. This week, the IEA slashed both its 2025 &am

Join Matt Loszak, CEO of Aalo Atomics, a nuclear energy company that's shaking up the industry, and Jon Guidroz, their VP of Commercial and Strategy. They dive into the surge of interest in nuclear energy, especially for tech applications like AI data centers, and discuss Aalo's ambitious goal of delivering power under 3 cents per kWh. Matt shares their unique Extra-Modular Reactor design and the rapid growth from a tiny team to 45 employees. Get ready for insights on revolutionizing energy with innovative, factory-built nuclear plants!