We are thrilled to bring you this Special Edition COBT, featuring an exciting preview of the upcoming Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week taking place from September 9th – 13th. We had the pleasure of visiting with the event’s key organizers including Jane Stricker, Senior VP Energy Transition and Executive Director of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI), Brad Burke, Executive Director of the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship, Dale Winger, Managing Director of Halliburton Labs, and Timmeko Moore Love, Houston General Manager and Senior Vice President of Greentown Labs. Each of these leaders has played a pivotal role in fostering Houston’s energy and technology community and we were delighted to have them join us. Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week will bring together leading venture capital investors, industry leaders, and startups in the energy and climate sectors to showcase innovative companies and technologies that are shaping the future of energy. In our conversation, the group provides an overview of the event and the key players involved, the vision behind the event and collaboration among various organizations in fostering technological advancements, a detailed breakdown of the week’s activities including a block party, industry leadership gatherings, investor speed networking with the Rice Alliance, Halliburton Labs Finalist Pitch Day, and the Greentown Labs Climate Impact Awards Gala to note a few. As you will hear, multiple organizations are planning private gatherings around the week’s events. We also hear from each organization on their latest developments and discuss Houston’s energy and climate tech ecosystem broadly. A detailed schedule and registration details for the Houston Energy and Climate Week is linked here. A special thanks to Jane, Brad, Dale and Timmeko for joining. We hope to see you all in Houston in a few weeks!

Samantha Dart, Head of Global Natural Gas Research at Goldman Sachs, shares her expertise in the evolving natural gas landscape. She discusses the anticipated rise in global LNG capacity and its implications for U.S. natural gas producers. Samantha examines future price trends and the impact of energy transition challenges. She also sheds light on European industrial demand facing rising costs and the complexities of the U.S. LNG market. Dive into insights about how geopolitical factors are reshaping energy strategies and pricing dynamics.

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Erik Milito, President of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA). Erik has served as President of NOIA since 2019 following 17 years in several leadership roles at the American Petroleum Institute and prior experience as an attorney in the Solicitor’s Office of the US Department of the Interior. Erik served on active duty in the US Army as a Judge Advocate from 1995 to 2000 and continued his service in the US Army Reserve from 2000 to 2004. NOIA’s mission is to advance and promote the interests of the offshore oil, gas, wind and ocean minerals industries. We last hosted Erik on COBT in April 2021 (episode linked here) and were excited to reconnect for an update on offshore activity. In the discussion, Erik provides an overview of the NOIA’s role to promote favorable policies related to offshore leasing, permitting, and regulation covering all flavors of energy including oil and gas, wind, carbon capture and storage and minerals. We start the conversation with Erik reminding us of the importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a booming region for the country and then dig into the challenges of offshore wind as an emerging sector. We cover the fascinating contrast of lease sales in the current administration compared to historical numbers. As the episode title mentions, this will be the first year since 1958 without a single federal offshore lease sale. We touch on advances in technology as current operations explore deeper depths / higher pressures in recent years, and we dig into how Erik sees the offshore wind industry developing from the services standpoint over the next couple of years. We also cover the complex issues around insurance and decommissioning platforms. We move on to discuss the positive relationship with the fishing industry and the significant role that the coastal state governments play in the world of the NOIA. Erik shares his perspective on Washington DC, the current climate given the election, and his sense of the public’s mood and attitude towards the various sources of energy that the NOIA is involved in. We wrap up the discussion by getting Erik’s thoughts on the progress of carbon capture over the last few years and the slower pace of offshore versus onshore CO2 projects and he urges that more progress would be possible with the cooperation of the government around permitting and regulatory support. We end the discussion with the areas that Erik is most optimistic about for the NOIA’s membership which includes opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico.  It was a fantastic conversation. Thanks to Erik for joining us! Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that trading in markets last week could be summed up briefly in two words: “volatility & reversal”. On the bond market, he highlighted that the 10-year bond yield was trading modestly lower due to a cooler-than-expected PPI. He also noted that this was a heavy economic reporting week with July CPI set to report on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Sales on Thursday. On crude oil, he highlighted that WTI price was down ~$2/bbl. on Tuesday due to monthly reports from the IEA & OPEC showing minor 2024 demand reductions. He noted that despite these two demand datapoints that WTI still rebounded by ~$6/bbl. over the 5+ trading days due to improving technicals (WTI price back above its 50/100 day moving averages) and growing supply concerns (potential Iranian retaliation against Israel & Ukrainian incursion into Russia). He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that 3mo rolling forward copper prices have declined over the last 4-5 weeks (~$10.5k/MT down to ~$9k/MT) due to continued global demand concerns and elevated LME Copper inventories. He also noted that copper prices were getting bid up this week due to a workers s

For today’s discussion, we were pleased to host Julia Weller, Principal at Energy Law International. Julia has worked in electricity and natural gas regulation and transactions for over 30 years. She served at both Hunton & Williams and Pierce Atwood before starting Energy Law International in 2017. Energy Law International advises governments, private investors, international finance institutions and electricity transmission system operators across Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the MENA Region and Sub-Saharan Africa on energy market reforms and provides support to institutions seeking to invest in emerging energy markets. We were thrilled to visit with Julia and gain valuable insights into the international energy law landscape. We first became connected with Julia after she recently published a very interesting article on 2024 power deregulation in Israel that caught our eye (linked here). In our conversation, Julia first shares how she started her career helping countries with energy reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of US/Western efforts to wean those countries from their dependence on Russian energy. Sound familiar? We discuss the missed opportunity in integrating the then struggling Russia into the global community, Energy Law International’s work to help countries improve legal systems for safer investments and introduce capitalist concepts, the increasing significance of climate change in legal/regulatory reforms and emerging markets, energy market reforms in Israel, and the stability and structure of Israel’s power market. We explore some of the key topics from Julia’s recent article on Israel, Israel’s historical need for self-reliance broadly, lessons from European countries focusing on renewable energy ahead of reliability and affordability, introducing competition in energy markets, and examples of market reform success. We ended by asking Julia for her vision of the energy world in ten years and her response was “a complete course correction.” It was a fascinating discussion. Julia’s answer to the 10-year question was quite direct and is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that prior to this week, U.S. equity markets could best be summed up in one word: “rotation” (out of S&P 500/Big Tech and into the Russell 2000). Global markets so far this week could be best defined as “volatility.” Over the last year, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) had traded in a very tight range, but on Monday, it spiked to a 4-year intra-day high (2020 Covid Pandemic levels) before closing Tuesday at levels just above its recent trading range. So far this week, there’s been a substantial spike in the VIX, a plunge in Bitcoin, a temporary blowout in the Yen Carry trade, and a historical % plunge in the Nikkei Index. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield easily blew through 4.0% (~3.7%). Some were calling for the FED to implement an emergency interest rate cut which would be extremely counterproductive as in Mike’s view it would signal that the FED was behind the curve (and really worried) and could easily lead to an equity market plunge. On the crude oil front, WTI price continued to be pressured because of lack of technical trading support (under 50/100/200 moving averages) and growing global demand fears. Crude oil contract length over the last few weeks has gone from “net long” to neutral, and traders could push it to “net short,” but that’s largely dependent on the magnitude of Iranian retaliation against Israel in the near future. Mike ended by noting that this type of volatility is why energy companies need to continue pursuing pristine balance sheets which will allow them to be oppor

Today we were pleased to host Gerald Kepes, President of Competitive Energy Strategies, and Sudan Maccio, Chief Legal Counsel of PetroTal, for a discussion focused on Venezuelan politics, energy and economics. Jerry has over 40 years of experience as a consultant and petroleum geologist and is a regular contributor to Al-Monitor on the geopolitics of energy in the Middle East and North Africa. Sudan started his career at PDVSA and brings over 30 years of extensive legal experience in global energy across legal, commercial, and leadership roles. We were thrilled to bring Jerry and Sudan together to discuss the recent Venezuelan election. In our conversation, Jerry and Sudan provide an overview of the recent election and the country’s opposition to President Maduro’s claimed victory. We discuss the current situation on the ground with ongoing protests, reactions from neighboring countries, the refugee crisis, how the military has been corrupted to support the ruling party and the potential for shifts in loyalty, and how the crisis is influencing global markets. We explore other geopolitical crises to understand potential strategy and outcomes, the possibilities and implications of foreign intervention, and influence from outside actors including Cuba, China, Russia, Iran and even Hezbollah. We also examine the role of the US in potentially intervening, possible outcomes, long-term implications, and much more. We ended by discussing how we can help the citizens of Venezuela and amplify their humanitarian needs. It was an enlightening discussion, and we are thankful to Jerry and Sudan for sharing their insights with us all. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that U.S. markets, so far this week, are mostly in churn-mode and laser focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. Bond traders expect the FED to leave interest rates unchanged but are hopeful Chairman Powell will indicate that the FED could be positioned, as early as September, to cut interest rates. WTI price has moved lower over the last few weeks due to growing fundamental concerns with 2H’24 oil demand (mostly slowing Chinese demand) but has plunged this week to ~$75/bbl mostly due to “technical” factors (Brent & WTI) breaking through 50/100/200 day moving averages which is leading to an unwind of “net” long interest in the crude complex. On the broader market front, he noted a continued rotation of AI/Big Tech names into the Russell 2000 due to a growing bet that the FED will be signaling a looser interest rate policy. The recent equity rotation could quickly unwind if the FED doesn’t signal a looser interest rate policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting. He also noted Q2 reporting up to this point has been dominated by Oil Services and natural-gas levered E&Ps but is now broadening out to all energy subsectors. He flagged a few key themes coming from Q2 calls including lower onshore oil service activity levels, a continuation of natural gas curtailments, and U.S. refiners highlighting that weaker refining cracks are resulting in global refining run cuts. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his perspective and inquiries to the discussion. We hope you find the discussion as insightful as we did. Our thoughts and prayers are with the Venezuelan people and we are hopeful for a peaceful and democratic resolution. Our best to you all. Thank you for your support and friendship!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. David Gattie, Associate Professor of Engineering at the University of Georgia. In addition to his role in the College of Engineering, David is a Senior Fellow at the University’s Center for International Trade and Security. David has a robust background including 18 years at the University of Georgia and 15 years in the energy private sector across production engineering, energy services engineering, and environmental engineering. His research focuses on the electric power sector, with an emphasis on comprehensive energy policy and integrated resource planning for overall energy and economic security, as well as national security. We were thrilled to visit with David. In our discussion, David provides an overview of Georgia’s unique energy landscape and power generation focus. He explains Georgia’s approach to long-term energy planning through integrated resource plans mandated every three years, the structure of Georgia’s energy sector, the role of the Public Service Commission, and the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the state’s long-term energy strategy. We explore Georgia’s choice to maintain a regulated market rather than deregulating, the effectiveness of various market systems, trends in regulated versus deregulated markets, and the potential risks of an energy transition that neglects national security and industrial competitiveness. David also discusses the Center for International Trade and Security’s efforts, including training students to become strategic thinkers with expertise in nuclear technology and energy security, as well as collaborating with key organizations and experts in the field. We cover the role of trade in maintaining global stability and preventing conflicts, the expected increase in electricity demand, commercial viability and government involvement in nuclear development, optimism for realistic energy policies, and more. As you’ll hear, it was a meaty conversation and David was a fantastic guest with which to explore these important topics. David’s full presentation including the slides referenced in our discussion is linked here. For additional reading, David’s recent report entitled “Competitive Advantage as a National Security Objective for US Civilian Nuclear Power Policy” is linked here. Additionally, if you are interested in reading the book David recommends during the show, “The Lessons of Tragedy” is linked here. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that it’s been a wild week for Presidential politics, which is introducing some added uncertainty to global markets. He noted there could be some increased volatility in the bond market at week’s end when Consumer Confidence and the PCE deflator are set to report. On the crude oil front, WTI price has plunged by ~$2.50/bbl (~$77.50/bbl) so far this week due to WTI price breaking through its 50/100/200 day moving averages and growing concern that Chinese commodity demand is slowing. On the energy equity front, Q2 reporting started last week and was skewed towards Oil Services. This week will also be heavy Oil Services but will also be broadening out to gas-levered E&Ps, Canadian E&Ps, Miners, Euro Oil Majors, Refiners and Electric Utilities. He also noted that equity investors will be paying a lot of attention to gas-levered E&P calls this week to get a sense of how they’re thinking about 2H’24/2025 gas price levels/direction and how that might influence their 2H’24 capex/guidance plans. Jeff Tillery added to Mike’s comments on oilfield services earnin

Today we had the honor of hosting former Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Senator Landrieu served for three terms from 1997 to 2015 and chaired the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and the Homeland Security Appropriations Committee. She also served on the Armed Forces Committee. During her time in Washington, Senator Landrieu gained a reputation for working across the aisle on important energy and other national priorities. Currently, Senator Landrieu is Co-Chair of Natural Allies, a coalition of stakeholders that recognize the vital role natural gas plays in the energy mix to meet carbon reduction goals. We were thrilled to visit with Senator Landrieu. In our conversation we discuss how Louisiana’s industrial base relies heavily on energy production and consumption, the historical bipartisanship in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, how geography influences people’s understanding and views on energy issues, the role of natural gas in reducing emissions, and why nuclear energy has bipartisan support. Senator Landrieu shares background on her role at Natural Allies and the group’s focus on supporting US natural gas, the need to educate the public on the economic benefit of open markets particularly for US exports, finding ways to help countries like China and India reduce their reliance on coal, why the Senator disagreed with the Biden Administration's LNG permitting pause, and broadly the need for pragmatic, bipartisan energy and climate solutions. We explore SPR usage and levels, the status of permitting reform with significant delays expected until after the Presidential Election, finding practical solutions to reduce emissions and grow the economy through building infrastructure faster, and much more. It was a fantastic conversation and we are very grateful to Senator Landrieu for sharing her time and valuable insights with us all. She calls it like she sees it and is a very refreshing centrist voice. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields continued their recent plunge after last week’s cooler than expected CPI report and currently trade at ~4.15%. WTI price is trading at ~$81/bbl and has been stuck in a tight trading range ($80-$83/bbl) for the last several weeks. Crude oil traders are focused on global demand and are growing concerned with slowing global economic growth, especially China. U.S. natural gas continued its recent plunge and trades at ~$2.15/Mcf, despite Hurricane Beryl temporarily curtailing 1.7-1.8bcfd from Freeport LNG. He noted that U.S. natural gas production has rebounded back above 101bcfd and remains problematic given natural gas storage levels that are ~18% above normal. He discussed that the main word to describe broader equity market trading action this last week is “rotation.” Big 6 (AI & Tech equities) and broader equity indices like the S&P 500 & Nasdaq are significantly underperforming smaller-cap indices like the Russell 2000, which are perceived to be bigger beneficiaries of lower future inflation/interest rates. He ended by noting that Q2 Energy sector reporting begins this week with both pipelines (KMI) and oil services (LBRT, HAL & SLB) reporting. Arjun Murti shared his thoughts on the need for a diverse energy portfolio to meet global demands, the roles of the US and Canada as key players in both traditional and new energy markets, the unnecessary partisan divide over energy sources, and the importance of leveraging the US’s leadership in technology and capital markets to lead in energy innovation. We hope you enjoy the discussion with Senator Landrieu as much as we did. Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Sean McGarvey, President of NABTU, discusses union's role in construction industry, skilled labor future, differences between union and non-union bids, IRA legislation impact, prevailing wages, energy workforce challenges, and evolving discussions on large nuclear power projects.

Today we were delighted to welcome back George Bilicic for an engaging discussion on the current power and energy landscape. George serves as Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power, Energy and Infrastructure at Lazard. In his long and distinguished career, George has over 20 years of experience at Lazard in the investment banking business with previous senior roles at Cravath, Merrill Lynch, KKR, and Sempra Energy. We last hosted George on COBT on May 2, 2023 (episode linked here) and were excited to get him back to discuss how the world has changed in the past year, especially in power. Jeff Tillery, Mike Bradley and I were thrilled to visit with George in our office in Houston. The discussion with George today began with hitting the high points of Lazard’s recently released 2024 Levelized Cost of Energy+ (LCOE+) report (linked here). George kicked us off by providing background on the report’s history and shares this year’s key conclusions including the stabilization of renewable costs, the importance of using all forms of energy, the cost and scaling benefits associated with energy storage, and the current status of the hydrogen market. We explore the report’s comparison of generation costs, the effect of the IRA on renewable energy costs, cost of capital impacts, storage economics, and challenges and opportunities in valuing nuclear energy assets. George goes on to share his perspective on key changes from last year’s LCOE+ report to this year’s, factors driving power demand, challenges in investing in gas infrastructure, the need for new infrastructure and permitting reform, consolidation in the power industry, the need for diverse generation resources and a more organized/systemic planning approach to incorporate them into reliable grids, and the necessity for more transmission infrastructure. We also discuss how tech companies’ decisions on where to locate data centers and their energy sources can significantly impact local economies and tax revenues, global energy trends and attitudes, public investor sentiment, the influence of market dynamics on capital allocation and investment strategies, and much more. We greatly appreciate George stopping by and sharing his time and perspectives. With George’s help, we also recently had the opportunity to host Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard, this past March (episode linked here). Our episode with George marks the final COBT episode recorded in our offices at the Ion. We are excited to move down the street to our new home in the Upper Kirby District. Stay tuned for our first COBT episode from the new studio! Have a wonderful 4th of July!

Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Russell Hagen, Senior Vice President and Chief Development Officer of Weyerhaeuser. Russell is responsible for Weyerhaeuser’s real estate, energy and natural resources businesses. Prior to his appointment as Chief Development Officer, Russell served as Chief Financial Officer from 2016 – 2021. Weyerhaeuser is the largest private owner of timberlands in North America, with 10.5 million acres in the US and 14 million acres licensed in Canada. In addition to timber products, Weyerhaeuser’s businesses include recreation, real estate, land and minerals, wood products, and climate solutions, including renewable energy development, forest carbon and CCS, and carbon credits. We were thrilled to visit with Russell. In our discussion, Russell shares background on the history and scale of Weyerhaeuser and their business segments, Weyerhaeuser’s sustainable forestry practices, the company’s natural climate solutions business unit and ambitious growth targets for the business (aiming to grow the unit’s EBITDA to $100 million by 2025), and the current state and pricing of voluntary carbon credits. We discuss Weyerhaeuser’s strategy for maintaining high quality and credible carbon projects, the company’s partnership with Carbon Direct, Weyerhaeuser’s approach to acquisitions and the return profile for timber investments, forest management and sustainability, Russell’s approach to strategic development as a former CFO, the natural climate solutions market, and solar and carbon capture projects. We explore factors in determining good locations for forest carbon projects, balancing carbon projects with timber operations, growing recognition and demand for nature-based solutions, particularly among tech companies, technological innovations including the potential for innovations in bioengineering and alternative fuels derived from wood fiber, and the potential for significant innovation and capital investment in both nature-based and technological solutions for carbon management in the future. It was our pleasure to host Russell and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that over the last 7-8 trading days, the 10-year bond yield has been stuck in a narrow trading range of ~4.25%. There could be some fireworks in the bond market on Friday when the all-important PCE Deflator report drops. WTI price rallied another $3/bbl this past week and pushed WTI price to ~$81/bbl. Global oil demand, rather than supply, seems to be the biggest catalyst to break WTI price out of its recent trading band of $70-$90/bbl. He noted natural gas price has pulled back to ~$2.75/M despite a hot weather outlook and that lower-48 dry gas production has rebounded from a recent trough below 99bcfpd back up to over 101bcfpd, which could prove problematic in reducing the huge current gas storage surplus. Broader markets continue posting new highs as they follow the direction of AI/Tech equities. Broader equities seem to be running on fumes/losing trading momentum as broader market indices (S&P 500 & Nasdaq) still remain technically overbought. Energy was by far the best-performing S&P sector this past week (+4%). He noted YTD performance of Timber Companies, S&P Timber REITs, S&P Materials Sector and REITs Index and rounded out the conversation by highlighting performance (YTD, 1yr, 2yr & 3yr) in EU Carbon Permits. Todd Scruggs flagged the recent bankruptcy of Zachry and subsequent layoffs, highlighting the scale and complexity of industrial projects and the inflationary forces involved (Zachry press release linked here). Thanks again to Russell for joining us and a special thank you to the whole Weyerhaeuser team for their help with making this episode possible. Our b