0:00 Bestie intro and poker recap 3:14 Elizabeth Holmes verdict, origins of the fraud, breakdown of the Theranos promise 17:51 Lessons for founders and investors from the Theranos debacle, bad behavior a sign of the top 26:09 Implications of "The Great Markdown" on public and private markets, confusing FED decisions 45:56 Advice for founders on navigating a downturn 1:00:01 a16z's new mega funds; should they go public? How does that change partner dynamics? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-elizabeth-holmes-verdict-theranos-founder-is-guilty-on-four-of-11-charges-in-fraud-trial-11641255705 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58469882 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/technology/elizabeth-holmes-verdict.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-theranos-fraud-elizabeth-holmes-convicted-trial-blood-testing-start-up-11641330471 https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-maris-explains-why-gv-didnt-invest-in-theranos-2015-10 https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2021/06/insights-the-delaware-edition/delaware-courts-expand-plaintiffs-rights https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/fed-minutes-december-2021.html https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE http://www.paulgraham.com/aord.html https://www.socialcapital.com/annual-letters/2019 https://medium.com/craft-ventures/the-burn-multiple-51a7e43cb200 https://www.statista.com/statistics/266206/googles-annual-global-revenue https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/07/andreessen-horowitz-raises-9b-in-new-capital-for-venture-growth-bio-funds

(0:00) Recapping the "Superspreader" (6:12) Predicting 2022's biggest political winner (11:57) Predicting 2022's biggest political loser (19:07) Predicting 2022's biggest business winner (25:47) Predicting 2022's biggest business loser (34:30) Most contrarian belief for 2022 (1:02:07) Best performing asset for 2022 (1:04:19) Most anticipated trend for 2022 (1:09:19) Most anticipated media for 2022 Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFMMeCMbNt8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrgYEbIQkac https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/chinas-xi-and-russias-putin-talk-geopolitics-in-video-call.html https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-gdp https://twitter.com/datarade/status/1474432996845436933 https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1475209018058723334 https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/23/22245325/samsungbuilding-chipmaking-fab-texas-taylor https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-stop-accepting-u-k-issued-visa-credit-cards-11637153600 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1475438356473409542 https://balajis.com/mirrortable https://www.wsj.com/articles/hispanic-voters-now-evenly-split-between-parties-wsj-poll-finds-11638972769 https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/1470906537682026499 https://twitter.com/TheOfficialRom/status/1472206678586179588 https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1322254443644026880 https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.html https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/27/world/cdc-quarantine-isolation-guidelines#quarantine-5-days https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1475209878415323140

(0:00) Catching up on the Web3 wars and Jack Dorsey sounding off (5:10) Biggest Winner - Politics (9:43) Biggest Loser - Politics (14:37) Biggest Political Surprise (22:24) Biggest Winner - Business (26:03) Biggest Loser - Business (30:54) Biggest Business Surprise (35:27) Best Science Breakthrough (42:56) Biggest Flash in the Pan (47:08) Best CEO (52:43) Best Investor (57:12) Best Turnaround (1:02:47) Worth Human Being (1:07:31) Best Meme (1:10:02) Most Loathsome Company (1:14:47) Best New Tech (1:20:22) Best Trend (1:22:17) Worst Trend (1:26:02) Favorite Media (1:34:15) The Rudy Giuliani Award for Self-Immolation (1:39:07) The Besties spread holiday cheer with each other Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/jack https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1473321415285751811 https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/1473150192400486401 https://twitter.com/jack/status/1473155226194616325 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1472754632325795843 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/coinbase-enters-the-metaverse-an-exodus-from-meta-s-novi-unit?rc=g3wfdp https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea https://phys.org/news/2021-09-chinese-scientists-starch-synthesis-carbon.html https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55564448 https://www.amazon.com/Gray-Lady-Winked-Misreporting-Fabrications/dp/1736703315 https://www.wsj.com/articles/washington-post-grasps-for-new-direction-as-trump-era-boom-fades-11639695007 https://twitter.com/GavinSBaker/status/1473326791293128706 https://scitechdaily.com/fusion-breakthrough-at-the-brink-of-fusion-ignition-at-national-ignition-facility https://www.amazon.com/Grinding-It-Out-audiobook/dp/B07H4WXR4N https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276 https://www.amazon.com/San-Fransicko-Progressives-Ruin-Cities/dp/0063093626 https://www.amazon.com/Wanting-Power-Mimetic-Desire-Everyday/dp/1250262488

(0:00) Bestie Intro: Sweater update, NYC stories (8:30) Sacks got flagged on Twitter, theorizing on Twitter's content warning algorithm (14:37) "Racial equity audits" with product-level consequences might be coming to Big Tech (27:37) Elizabeth Warren vs. Elon on Twitter, birth of "Senator Karen," understanding where the Fed can go from here (42:56) Omicron spreading rapidly in NYC, but deaths are still relatively flat, anticipating the quality of life split for blue/red states going forward (53:02) Jeremy Strong's New Yorker profile and backlash, politicians trading stocks (1:08:57) Future of mRNA technology (1:15:39) SF Mayor London Breed's speech on increasing law enforcement: is she the right person to turn the ship around? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1470799225566859268 https://freebeacon.com/democrats/democrats-push-racial-equity-audits-to-cement-control-of-tech-companies https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/get-ready-for-the-no-buy-list https://mobile.twitter.com/SenWarren/status/1470415896053227522 https://mobile.twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1471512117257846784 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1470827691527999494 https://twitter.com/peterpham/status/1471514774546509829 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/13/on-succession-jeremy-strong-doesnt-get-the-joke https://www.etalk.ca/celebrity/jessica-chastain-and-more-celebs-unnecessarily-run-to-jeremy-strong-defence-after-new-yorker-profile.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/stephen-curry-warriors-shooting-11637027582 https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-act-violations-senate-house-trading-2021-9#sen-dianne-feinstein-a-democrat-from-california-1 https://www.investopedia.com/regional-fed-presidents-step-aside-amid-trading-backlash-5203208 https://www.wsj.com/articles/131-federal-judges-broke-the-law-by-hearing-cases-where-they-had-a-financial-interest-11632834421 https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1471183791121055747 https://www.npr.org/2021/09/21/1039313011/tiktokers-are-trading-stocks-by-watching-what-members-of-congress-do https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-research-finds-immune-system-responds-to-mrna-treatment-for-cancer https://twitter.com/robkhenderson

0:00 Bestie Intro: Chamath's happy hour and sweater feud 7:11 Breaking down the new 6.8% CPI number, reflecting on old inflation takes, jobs report, understanding why CPI is misleading 23:05 How growth stocks got overblown, current valuation outlook, government as capital allocators 40:12 Deficit trouble: will another president ever try and balance the budget? Areas of positivity in the economy 50:29 Better.com's botched layoffs, impact of overcapitalization, macro outlook for founders 1:11:16 Lessons from the Jussie Smollett saga Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/consumer-price-index-november-2021.html https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/consumer-prices-increase-6-2-percent-for-the-year-ended-october-2021.htm https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-powell-must-do-next-after-admitting-that-he-was-wrong-about-transitory-inflation-11638460995 https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/27/economy/inflation-federal-reserve-janet-yellen/index.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/opinion/us-inflation-stimulus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/10/business/economy/inflation-markets-federal-reserve.html https://www.axios.com/inflation-consumers-survey-1932e8d0-b01b-4c39-8fb4-4fdb9a96958d.html http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/12/10/cbo.report.on.build.back.better.pdf https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/11/10/does-the-wh-owe-larry-summers-an-apology-495052 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/jobs-report-november-2021.html https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1469438745791410183 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/stanley-druckenmiller-fed-lulling-investors-into-false-sense-of-security.html https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-progressives-back-bill-4-day-workweek-remote-work-2021-12 https://youtu.be/-_wvTa8aiu8 https://www.thebalance.com/deficit-by-president-what-budget-deficits-hide-3306151 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1469370800771715073 https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidjeans/2020/11/20/mortgages-fraud-claims-and-dumb-dolphins-a-tangled-past-haunts-bettercom-ceo-vishal-garg/?sh=6ed46a0110f4 https://youtu.be/pXLx5OY21Bk https://youtu.be/wZXoErL2124

(0:00) Bestie Intro: Miami talk, gambling stories, Nancy Pelosi's retirement plans (12:30) Understanding the Omicron variant (24:49) Tech stocks plummet: why the selloff? (33:44) Inflation: here to stay? What's the 10-year outlook? (44:57) Anticipating a "Great Resignation" of successful VCs (54:45) Tech people ruining Art Basel, comparing Bay Area / South Florida immigrant communities in terms of political activity, success of Indian-Americans in tech (1:02:08) Mike Bloomberg donates $750M to charter schools (1:07:52) Jack Dorsey's departure from Twitter, what it means for free speech Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/trvrb https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2115463 https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1466799350990839810 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1465037481187987457 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-create-new-stateowned-rare-earths-giant-11638545586 https://www.shippingandfreightresource.com/china-us-freight-rates-plunge-but-china-manufacturing-woes-create-new-headaches-for-shippers https://fortune.com/2021/08/09/lumber-prices-down-2018-levels https://twitter.com/rabois/status/1466816803418615812 https://twitter.com/michelletandler/status/1465393612577853440 https://www.wsj.com/articles/michael-bloomberg-why-im-backing-charter-schools-covid-19-learning-loss-teachers-union-11638371324 https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/11/18/1012066/emtech-stage-twitters-cto-on-misinformation https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/twitter-is-about-to-get-way-worse

0:00 Bestie intro 1:14 Constitution DAO: implications, shortcomings, how to move forward? 29:58 Rittenhouse trial media coverage 50:52 Ken Griffin plays heel (again), private sector efficiency vs. government inefficiency 1:07:08 Pete Davidson's pull, Sacks' taste in music, wrap Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/constitutiondao-crypto-investors-lose-bid-to-buy-constitution-copy.html https://twitter.com/constitutiondao https://www.constitutiondao.com https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2021/11/19/constitutiondao-outbid-for-first-printing-of-americas-founding-document-in-sothebys-auction/ https://youtu.be/1TBa-9Lx3vc?t=8762 https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/kyle-rittenhouse-trial-closing-arguments-self-defense/ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/19/us/kyle-rittenhouse-trial https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1461372314424164367 https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-ceo-ken-griffin-outbid-a-group-of-crypto-investors-for-copy-of-u-s-constitution-11637352087 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/17/us/politics/biden-build-back-better-act.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/amazon-to-stop-accepting-visa-credit-cards-issued-in-the-uk.html https://twitter.com/ConceptualJames/status/1461007806333693959 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/sam-altman-puts-375-million-into-fusion-start-up-helion-energy.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/bill-gates-terrapower-builds-its-first-nuclear-reactor-in-a-coal-town.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHZ4MfOiqm8 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/emily-ratajkowski-women-find-pete-davidson-attractive_n_618be849e4b06de3eb7dfbbe

0:00 Bestie intro and Solana Breakpoint talk 4:43 Covering the censored segment from last week, how to value crypto projects and general investing, what to take away from the podcast 30:45 Rivian's >$100B valuation, greatest CNBC hit of all time 42:06 Inflation: reacting to the CPI number, problems with MMT, strategies to curb it 1:01:34 Xi Jinping becomes China's "Supreme Leader" 1:08:35 GE, Toshiba, and J&J break up into separate businesses: is this the end of the conglomerate? Insights from PayPal breaking off from eBay, what buybacks signal 1:24:44 Besties wrap the show Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-october-2021-11636491959 https://twitter.com/denverbitcoin/status/1458900776747737093/photo/1 https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/11/10/nitrogen-fertilizer-prices-shatter-1 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-tests-israels-iron-dome-in-guam-as-defense-against-chinese-cruise-missiles-11636455224 https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1458443966135902221 https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/02/two-tales-of-federal-debt https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-gains-power-as-communist-party-designates-him-historical-figure-11636635312 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/ge-to-break-up-into-3-companies-focusing-on-aviation-healthcare-and-energy.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/toshiba-like-ge-plans-to-split-into-three-parts-11636700609?st=e6zgv5yq433lvr3&reflink=article_imessage_share https://investor.pypl.com/news-and-events/news-details/2021/Response-to-Market-Rumors-of-Discussions-Between-PayPal-and-Pinterest/default.aspx https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-spent-nearly-20-billion-on-stock-buybacks-in-q4-at-average-prices-below-the-vwap-2021-10-29 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/which-companies-spend-the-most-in-research-and-development-rd-2021-06-21

Show Notes: 0:00 Besties do a Microsoft-themed intro 7:53 Spread trading big tech, amazing power of Google and Microsoft 17:28 Sacks speaks about Bird going public from the NYSE, understanding distributions and evergreen funds, why Friedberg went the startup studio route 30:36 How DAOs fit in to the capital allocation landscape, the balance of consumer-facing products and infrastructure solutions for web 3.0 35:24 Zillow's iBuying implosion 46:05 Wokelash: Progressive democrats take huge hit on election day 2021, what are American voters looking for? 1:14:57 New CO2 to starch conversion discovered by Chinese researchers, future climate incentives Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/Suhail/status/1455553539552382979 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-01/zillow-selling-7-000-homes-for-2-8-billion-after-flipping-halt https://twitter.com/RTanuku/status/1456324783809826819 https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/elections-2021 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/nyregion/stephen-sweeney-durr-nj-election.html https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/republican-ann-davison-defeats-nicole-thomas-kennedy-to-become-seattles-first-woman-city-attorney https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/us/politics/democrat-losses-2022.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html https://nypost.com/2021/11/01/mcauliffe-claims-everybody-clapped-after-classroom-comment https://www.newsweek.com/cnn-van-jones-glenn-youngkin-delta-variant-trumpism-1645303 https://twitter.com/patrickruffini/status/1454792424488902656 https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/2021/10/17/if-taxes-are-your-issue-njs-not-for-you-murphy-says-comment-taken-out-of-context/ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abh4049 https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1454482267707899909 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/28/blah-greta-thunberg-leaders-climate-crisis-co2-emissions https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-finance-china-india-11636039142 https://www.wsj.com/articles/tariffs-climate-change-greenhouse-gases-manufacturing-steel-11635862305 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1454808104256737289

0:00 Bestie intro, child update, Joe Lonsdale’s take on paternity leave 20:44 Proposed “Wealth Tax” 35:13 Inflation discussion: corporate and government reactions 52:30 Dealing with inflation as a capital allocator 58:49 Big Tech’s outrageous quarterly earnings, why Google is the best business ever, Facebook’s “Meta” rebrand Follow the besties:  https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/JTLonsdale/status/1453399478254379008 https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/02/26/698057356/if-a-wealth-tax-is-such-a-good-idea-why-did-europe-kill-theirs https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield https://www.npr.org/2021/10/28/1049980529/starbucks-and-costco-raising-wages-in-the-nationwide-competition-for-workers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-investor-turned-8000-into-5-billion-buying-shiba-inu-2021-10 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-29/tesla-s-tsla-hidden-billionaire-how-one-retail-investor-made-7-billion https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TOST/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-overtakes-apple-as-most-valuable-company-11635516976 https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2021Q3_alphabet_earnings_release.pdf?cache=f1ba3f6 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1450108244915937284 https://www.theverge.com/22743744/facebook-teen-usage-decline-frances-haugen-leaks https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdYPqdJ6/