The Breakdown

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW discusses: Traditional markets: The tension between vaccine optimism and a growing national wave of economy-disrupting lockdowns Regulatory landscape: Crypto ally Brian Brooks nominated for full term at OCC while SEC Chair Jay Clayton steps down early  Bitcoin Miners: Sold out until Spring Celebrities and Financiers coming to the Bitcoin space  https://twitter.com/Maisie_Williams/status/1328428879334297600 https://twitter.com/RicardoBSalinas/status/1328850136290775041

Earlier this week, investor Nic Carter published a piece called “Nine Bitcoin Charts Already at All-Time Highs” showing just how far bitcoin had come and how fundamentally bullish this quiet run-up was.  In this piece, NLW goes over those metrics that have achieved all-time highs, and adds one more that happened after Nic published his piece. The metrics include: Addresses with a balance of $10 or more Open interest on CME bitcoin futures Realized capitalization  Bitcoin options open interest Bitcoin priced in Turkish lira Bitcoin held by Grayscale Stablecoin free float Silvergate’s settlement network Growth of crypto-native credit Market Capitalization

Today on the Brief: Markets fight to remain optimistic  Jobless claims rise for the first time in five weeks China borrows at negative rates for the first time  Our main discussion: a crypto ally as top bank regulator?  Brian Brooks was an executive at Coinbase when he was tapped by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to be the number two at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the nation’s main bank regulator. Within two months he was acting Comptroller and now Brooks has been nominated for a full term.  In his short tenure, he has given banks the OK to provide custody of crypto and banking services to stablecoin issuers. In so doing, he has aroused the ire of congressional Democrats, who have accused him of acting too quickly and unilaterally on crypto.  In this discussion, NLW breaks down Brooks’ time at the OCC and asks whether he’s likely to be confirmed before the next administration early next year. 

Vijay Boyapati’s “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin” is one of the most influential articles in the history of the industry – even being assigned reading from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor as he tried to convince his board on the merits of what would become its big bitcoin move.  In this conversation with NLW, Vijay discusses his recent thinking around four valuation frameworks that help us understand 1) how people see bitcoin’s upside potential and 2) the likely values they suggest for bitcoin. We also discuss why state-level attacks are Vijay’s biggest concern for bitcoin’s future.

Today on the Brief: Tesla to join S&P 500 Airbnb files for IPO  The Mooch wants crypto  Our main discussion: HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO. The 2017-2018 bull run was driven by ICO mania and a relentless get-richism that was nothing if not short-term. As bitcoin passes $17,000 and questions of looming all-time highs start to make their way into mainstream press, it is a very new set of actors and a new set of thinking that is driving this movement.

Today on the Brief:  Moderna trial success drives markets up New all-time high in negative-yielding debt Jay Clayton to leave SEC  Our main discussion: BTC $318,000 in December 2021? That’s the prediction of one Citibank exec in a report called “Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold” sent last week to institutional clients. In this episode, NLW breaks down the report, including the macro justification that sets the stage as well as the technical analysis that led to these numbers. Ultimately, he argues that what matters isn’t the report’s predictions, but the fact that its very existence suggests a shifting narrative for institutional buyers.   

On this week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads former IMF chief and current Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s latest Op-Ed, “The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm” in Project Syndicate.

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at bitcoin’s surge past $16,000. Additionally, he explores some recent FUD from Ray Dalio, which NLW argues seems strangely locked in years-old narratives. 

Today on the Brief: Christine Lagarde’s digital euro hunch Deutsche Bank CBDC note COVID-19 resurgent    Our main discussion: PayPal is rolling out crypto to all its users and increasing transaction limits from $10,000 to $20,000. In this episode, NLW breaks down the community response to the news, including an interesting discussion of whether the company’s BitLicense requires PayPal to hold 1:1 all the BTC its customers pay for.   

Robby Gutmann is the co-founder of Stone Ridge Holdings Group, a $10 billion alternative asset manager and co-founder and CEO of NYDIG, the group’s bitcoin subsidiary.  In this first-ever podcast conversation, Gutmann discusses:  Buying his first bitcoin from Craigslist in 2010 The personal and professional experiences that drove his team to bitcoin Why bitcoin fits the firm's founding principle of financial security for all  A set of key trends driving institutional investors and fiduciaries/asset managers into the bitcoin space  Why the coming year is poised for even more aggressive expansion of the investor market for bitcoin