The Breakdown

Today on the Brief: Libra is now “Diem”  Christine Lagarde comes down on private stablecoins  Dow closes its best month in 33 years  Our main discussion: AllianceBernstein changes its mind.  Yesterday, CoinDesk received access to a private client research report from AllianceBernstein, a global investment giant with more than $631 billion in assets.  In this episode of the Breakdown, NLW reads excerpts from the memo and discusses: Why, in discussing supply, it conflates bitcoin and other cryptos but still finds limited supply “for all practical purposes”  Why prevailing macro political conditions – particularly the growth of government’s role in business and individual lives – shifted the investment firm’s calculus  Why its greatest long-term concern is government banning something that is actively hindering the application of monetary policy

On this historic day, NLW looks at bitcoin’s punching through its previous December 2017 all-time high. Specifically, he looks at: How different people benchmark the all-time high  What drove the latest price action, including the prospect of new investment from institutional asset management giant Guggenheim  Why historian Niall Ferguson is arguing bitcoin has won the COVID-19 monetary revolution  Why macro giants including Raoul Pal, George Gammon and Ben Hunt got into disagreements with Bitcoin Twitter about how co-opted by the state and Wall Street bitcoin is likely to become

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads a recent piece by Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin.  In it, Fang provides a set of valuation models and scenarios that plausibly lead to bitcoin achieving a significant $100,000 value over the course of 2021.

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at what was an absolutely action-packed holiday week.  He discusses: Bitcoin’s price action  The Dow’s 30,000 psychological milestone  Eth 2.0 cleared for Beacon chain launch  The implications of Janet Yellen’s nomination for Treasury secretary

One of the most significant macroeconomic questions facing the world is what the future of the global reserve system, dominated for the last 80 years by the U.S. dollar, holds.  Today’s episode is a replay of NLW’s epic conversation with macro analyst Luke Gromen from April 2020. In it, Luke discusses the entire history of that U.S. dollar system, including: Bretton Woods and why the world went on a USD-based system rather than John Maynard Keynes’ idea for a non-sovereign “bancor” world reserve currency The move to the petrodollar in the 1970s The financialization of commodities that started in the 1980s The monetary policy vacuum after the Cold War ended How a shift in executive compensation rules led to many of today’s problems with Wall Street The export of Treasury bills as a business model The economic fallout of 2008 globally and domestically The end of Treasury bill buying in 2014 Why the Federal Reserve is the only sugar daddy left Find our guest online:Website: fftt-llc.comTwitter: @LukeGromen

When NLW asked Crypto Twitter for recommendations of the best way to convince friends and family about bitcoin and crypto, one of the ideas was to review old articles that have stood the test of time.  With that in mind, NLW today reads Chamath Palihapitiya’s May 2013 piece for Bloomberg, “Why I Invested In Bitcoin.”  Even among prescient early pieces, this one is particularly salient.

Today’s Breakdown is a prep kit for the inevitable conversations about bitcoin as friends and family sit down at the Thanksgiving table this year.  NLW discusses arguments ranging from price action to who is buying to why they’re buying to good old-fashioned supply and demand. He leaves with one big conclusion: If there was ever a year to discuss bitcoin, this is it. 

Today’s guest is Lyn Alden. Lyn is the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and one of today’s best-known and most-respected macro analysts. In this conversation, she and NLW discuss: Anti-deflation vs. inflation Why money printing is nonpartisan  Why we’re headed for deeper MMT experiments How she increased her conviction around Bitcoin (her journey in memes) Why the beginnings of a new, post-Bretton Woods era are starting to show  Find our guest online: Twitter: @LynAldenContact Website: lynalden.com

Today on the Brief: AstraZeneca and University of Oxford release third positive COVID-19 vaccine trial data Trump administration ratchets up pressure on China Another DCEP lottery trial coming Our main discussion: a narrative shift, growing attention and a bitcoin shortage. What happens when demand exceeds supply and supply is being gobbled up aggressively by new market actors? That’s the question posed by Pantera’s recent investor letter and today’s Breakdown episode. NLW also looks at: The reappearance of bitcoin (BTC, +1.08%) in mainstream media, like today’s Wall Street Journal The rise of celebrities coming out as HODLers BlackRock’s CIO suggests bitcoin could replace gold for many

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Joe Nocera’s recent Op-Ed “Clayton’s Exit at SEC Opens Door to Protect Investors” from Bloomberg.  NLW expands upon the piece, discussing Clayton’s legacy in crypto and how a Biden economic team might impact the space.