Economics Explored

Coffee prices have surged dramatically over the past year, with green coffee increasing by 78%. In this episode, International Coffee Traders GM Raihaan Esat joins hosts Gene Tunny and Tim Hughes to explore the key drivers behind this spike, including harvest shortages, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical factors. Discover why your morning brew may soon cost more and how the coffee industry is navigating these challenges.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.About our guest: Raihaan Esat, General Manager, International Coffee TradersRaihaan Esat is a passionate and seasoned coffee professional with extensive experience across the coffee industry. From working in bustling espresso bars and competing at the highest levels of barista competitions to managing roasteries and developing quality control systems, Raihaan has cultivated a deep understanding of every facet of coffee craftsmanship.As General Manager of International Coffee Traders (ICT), a green coffee sales business, Raihaan connects both commercial and home roasters with premium green beans and equipment, sharing his love for exceptional coffee. Inspired by mentors like Phillip Di Bella and a history of innovation, Raihaan is also spearheading coffee events at The Coffee Commune, fostering a thriving community of coffee enthusiasts. Dedicated to excellence and driven by a lifelong passion, Raihaan continues to inspire others through mentorship, entrepreneurship, and a relentless pursuit of the perfect cup.Source: https://www.roastmagazine.com/roastsummit/events/raihann-esatTimestamps for EP267Coffee Market Overview and Initial Discussion (0:00)Factors Contributing to Coffee Price Increases (7:36)Quality Concerns and Market Dynamics (19:41)Consumer Behavior and Market Volatility (26:44)Impact on Coffee Shops and Consumers (47:07)Geopolitical and Weather Impact on Coffee Prices (54:20)TakeawaysGreen Coffee Prices Surge: Over the past 12 months, green coffee prices have increased by 78%, impacting every part of the supply chain.Major Producers Facing Challenges: Brazil and Vietnam, responsible for a large share of global coffee production, are experiencing lower yields due to weather conditions and harvest quality issues.Geopolitical Factors: Disruptions in trade routes, such as those caused by Middle East conflicts, have further strained the coffee supply chain, driving up costs.Changing Consumer Expectations: As prices rise, consumers may need to reconsider what they expect for a $5 cup of coffee and the value they receive in return.Sustainability of Cafes: For cafes to survive, they need to adjust their pricing to reflect increasing costs in labor, rent, and coffee supplies.Links relevant to the conversationOur previous conversation with Raihaan, “The Future of Coffee: Climate Change & Rising Prices w/ Raihaan Esat, International Coffee Traders  – EP217”:https://economicsexplored.com/2023/12/06/the-future-of-coffee-climate-change-rising-prices-w-raihaan-esat-international-coffee-traders-ep217/Raihaan’s slide explaining factors driving up coffee prices:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JAhmCl_TmfSoWRkh9wF9fDFU395mPnyL/view?usp=sharingChart of the green coffee price:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qnX28VagJ3FtD40JntMujADsNKI-NhBs/view?usp=sharingInternational Coffee Traders at the Coffee Commune:https://www.coffeecommune.com.au/international-coffee-traders/ABC News article “Coffee prices hit record high after bad weather”:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-11/coffee-prices-hit-record-high-after-bad-weather/104711708Greensquare coffee roaster app:https://www.greensquare.co/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

This episode explores the economic implications of Trump’s re-election, France’s political deadlock under Macron, and the future of global capitalism. Jean-Baptiste Wautier, a private equity investor and World Economic Forum speaker, shares insights on trade wars and deficits. He argues that short-term profit motives undermine the global capitalist system. Jean-Baptiste also discusses AI's transformative potential. Please note this episode was recorded on 11 December 2024, before French President Macron appointed François Bayrou as the new PM.  If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.Timestamps for EP266Introduction (0:00)Economic Implications of Trump's Re-Election (2:55)Potential Global Trade War (5:50)Global Trade and Economic Interdependence (8:29)Challenges Facing France and the Fifth Republic (13:55)Risks to the Eurozone (20:07)Flaws in Global Capitalism and Potential Solutions (27:34)Examples of Enlightened Capitalism (33:01)The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs (39:59)Final Thoughts and Future Directions (44:50)TakeawaysTrump’s Second Term Risks: His proposed tax cuts and tariffs could reignite inflation and exacerbate the US federal deficit, leading to global economic consequences.France’s Political Instability: Macron’s government faces gridlock, which could potentially destabilize the Eurozone due to France’s growing budget deficit and political deadlock.Global Trade War Unlikely: Despite harsh rhetoric, economic interdependence makes a full-scale global trade war improbable, in Jean-Baptiste’s view.Capitalism’s Short-Term Focus: Jean-Baptiste argues the current capitalist model prioritizes short-term profits over long-term sustainability, causing inefficiencies and negative externalities like mental health crises and economic inequality.The Role of AI: AI is transforming industries at an unprecedented speed, raising concerns about job displacement and the need for economic adjustments, possibly extending to UBI (Universal Basic Income), depending on the scale of the displacement.Links relevant to the conversationJean-Baptiste Wautier’s website:https://wautier.co.uk/EXPLAINER: Why is natural gas still flowing from Russia to Europe across Ukraine?https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-natural-gas-f9f00df7195d01404f8cb2a43152a8b1Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Host Gene Tunny discusses significant economic issues from the year. He features clips from interviews with experts on various topics, including the economic consequences of Donald Trump's re-election, the U.S. budget deficit, the gender pay gap, and environmental impact. President Reagan’s budget director David Stockman criticizes Trump’s policies for being anti-capitalist, citing a $8 trillion increase in public debt. Fiscal policy wonk Dan Mitchell argues that higher taxes are not the solution to the U.S. budget deficit, as spending is the primary issue. Leonora Risse (Assoc. Prof., University of Canberra) explains the concept of "greedy jobs" contributing to the gender pay gap. Marion Tupy of the Cato Institute discusses the long-term decline in commodity prices, and Daniel Lawse of Verdis Group emphasizes the need for sustainable, long-term thinking in business and policy. Daniel also reflects on the modest lifestyle of Warren Buffett, another Omaha resident. John August discusses the impact of immigration on Australia's housing crisis.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.Timestamps for EP265Introduction (0:00)David Stockman (6:20)Dan Mitchell (11:20)Leonora Risse (23:50)Marian Tupy (32:15)Daniel Lawse (41:49)John August (48:06)Links relevant to the conversationEpisodes featuring the clips:https://economicsexplored.com/2024/01/28/reagans-budget-boss-david-stockman-on-trumps-economic-policies-ep224/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/03/10/the-gender-pay-debate-understanding-the-factors-behind-the-gap-w-dr-leonora-risse-ep230/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/10/16/abundance-mindset-exploring-the-super-abundance-thesis-w-marian-tupy-cato-institute-ep258/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/06/01/helping-seattle-aquarium-others-go-to-net-zero-and-beyond-w-daniel-lawse-verdis-group-ep242/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/housing-crisis-and-immigration-australias-tough-choices-w-john-august-ep236/Leonora’s review of Career and Family: Women's Century-Long Journey toward Equity, by Claudia Goldinhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-4932.12716?domain=author&token=UPATKK2WTIAEZ49UMRMVPrinciple of Charity podcast episodes on degrowth:https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/can-degrowth-save-the-planet/id1571868650?i=1000674757240https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/can-degrowth-save-the-planet-pt-2-on-the-couch/id1571868650?i=1000675655623Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Professor Amar Bhidé of Columbia University discusses his new book “Uncertainty and Enterprise”, published by Oxford University Press. It emphasizes the limitations of standard economic models that rely on probability distributions. He argues that entrepreneurship involves dealing with unique, non-quantifiable uncertainties, which require imagination and narrative skills. Bhide critiques the over-reliance on incentives and statistical analysis, advocating for a more imaginative and contextual approach. He highlights the importance of routines and the need for accountability in expert decision-making, particularly in areas like public health and monetary policy. Bhide also discusses the role of narratives in business success and the challenges posed by tech monopolies.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.About this episode’s guest Professor Amar BhidéProfessor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University Irving Medical CenterBhidé has researched and taught about innovation, entrepreneurship, and finance for over three decades. He now focuses on teaching, developing, and disseminating case histories of transformational technological advances.A member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founding member of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia – and a founding editor of Capitalism and Society, Bhide is the author of the forthcoming book Uncertainty, Judgment, and Enterprise (Oxford). His earlier books include A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy (Oxford, 2010), The Venturesome Economy: How Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World (Princeton, 2008), The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses (Oxford, 2000) and Of Politics and Economic Reality (Basic Books, 1984). Starting in the early 1980s, he has written numerous articles for the Harvard Business Review, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and The Financial Times. He has periodically appeared on Bloomberg TV and CNBC.Bhidé was previously the Lawrence Glaubinger Professor of Business at Columbia University and the Thomas Schmidheiny Professor of Business at Tufts University. He has also taught at Harvard Business School (as an Assistant, Associate, and Visiting Professor)and at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.His professional experience includes directorship of a FTSE 100 company. In the 1980s, Bhidé was a Senior Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company, a Proprietary Trader at E.F. Hutton, and served on the Brady Commission staff, investigating the 1987 stock market crash.Bhidé earned a DBA and MBA from Harvard Business School with High Distinction and a B. Tech from the Indian Institute of Technology (Bombay).LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amar-bhide-8202ba10/Timestamps for EP264Uncertainty in Economic Theory and Practice (0:00)The Role of Imagination in Economic Decision-Making (6:44)Narrative and Storytelling in Entrepreneurship (15:01)The Impact of Narratives on Markets and Investment (25:29)Challenges of Regulating Tech Monopolies (32:34)Accountability and Expertise in Governance (41:04)Building Narrative Skills for Entrepreneurs (48:31)Final Thoughts (52:14)TakeawaysThe Distinction Between Risk and Uncertainty: Frank Knight’s distinction highlights that risk is quantifiable, but uncertainty involves unknowns, requiring judgment and imagination.The Importance of Narrative in Business: Entrepreneurs use storytelling to make ventures plausible to investors and stakeholders, even when data is incomplete or speculative.Imagination is Key to Profit: Success in entrepreneurship often depends on the ability to imagine scenarios, adapt to setbacks, and create compelling business models.Challenges of Accountability in Modern Institutions: Bhide critiques the lack of accountability among experts in fields like public health and monetary policy, advocating for more robust governance structures.The Role of Plausibility in Decision-Making: Investors and entrepreneurs alike rely on plausible, if not always precise, projections to guide business choices.Links relevant to the conversationAmar’s new book Uncertainty and Enterprise:https://www.amazon.com.au/Uncertainty-Enterprise-Venturing-Beyond-Known/dp/0197688357/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=Corralling the Info-Monopolists (Project Syndicate Op-ed):https://sites.tufts.edu/amarbhide/2018/05/14/corralling-the-info-monopolists-project-syndicate-op-ed/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Dr Vuk Vukovic, economist and founder of Oraclum Capital, joins Gene Tunny to discuss elite networks, their economic impact, and the future of democracy. Delving into his research, Dr Vukovic examines how political connections affect income inequality and corporate success. He shares his innovative Bayesian approach to predicting financial and political trends, offering a glimpse into his hedge fund’s methods. The episode also tackles the dangers of centralized political power and explores solutions for empowering communities and fostering trust in democratic institutions. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.About this episode’s guest Dr Vuk VukovicIn brief: an academic and practitioner​Academic...Oxford PhD, LSE Masters, Harvard, Berkeley5-year university teaching experiencePublished in top journals, published a book (@Oxford University Press) => Elite NetworksExpert member of Parliament committeePractitioner...Running a hedge fund in NYC, Oraclum Capital (ORCA), based on our scientific innovation in network theory Before that, founded two companies: market research consultancy & boutique rating agencyMacro-based trader & investor for over 10 years (learning by doing: lots of mistakes, lots of helpful lessons).Timestamps0:00 - Gene introduces Vuk and his work on elite networks and Bayesian analysis3:54 - Vuk explains how they use social network analysis to identify "super forecasters"7:47 - Vuk discusses the performance of his hedge fund Oraclum Capital9:29 - Vuk goes into more detail on their social network survey approach12:54 - Gene and Vuk discuss Vuk’s thesis on how political connections contribute to inequality20:21 - Discussion of Lina Khan and potential risks of Trump-Musk connections25:02 - Vuk discusses how corruption and concentrated power can lead to poor economic outcomes33:30 - Vuk outlines recommendations for decentralizing political power and re-empowering citizens39:13 - Vuk's final thoughts on the role of elites and the need for system design to channel their influence positivelyTakeawaysElite Networks Drive Inequality: Dr Vukovic’s research shows that corporate executives with political connections earn significantly higher salaries, fueling income inequality.Bayesian Analysis Enhances Forecasting: Dr Vukovic argues his approach improves financial and political predictions by weighting opinions based on network diversity and historical accuracy.Centralization vs. Decentralization: Dr. Vukovic argues for reducing centralized political power to lower inequality and enhance democratic processes.Democracy’s Resilience: While acknowledging current challenges, Dr Vukovic remains optimistic about democracy’s ability to adapt through trial and error.Links relevant to the conversationInfo on Dr Vuk Vukovic:https://www.vukvukovic.org/Elite Networks book:https://www.amazon.com.au/Elite-Networks-Political-Economy-Inequality/dp/0197774237Oraclum Capital:https://oraclumcapital.com/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Explore the mechanics of decentralized finance (DeFi) with Professor Evgeny Lyandres, who breaks down how decentralized exchanges work and how VirtuSwap stands out in providing liquidity for small-cap crypto assets. With insights into the challenges and future of tokenization, this episode offers a clear view of where DeFi may be heading. Evgeny is Professor of Finance and Head of the Blockchain Research Institute at Tel Aviv University. Disclaimer: This podcast episode contains general information only and is not financial or investment advice. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.Timestamps for EP262Introduction to Decentralized Exchanges and Their Potential (0:00)The Evolution and Functionality of Decentralized Exchanges (6:38)Challenges and Solutions in Decentralized Finance (22:18)The Future of Crypto and Decentralized Finance (43:32)Optimizing Liquidity and the Role of AI in Decentralized Exchanges (55:15)TakeawaysTokenization of traditional assets, such as stocks or real estate, is a future possibility for DeFi that could expand its impact well beyond the current crypto market.Liquidity pools and smart contracts are essential to DeFi, providing a protocol-based framework where trades occur automatically based on programmed rules.VirtuSwap’s unique pool structure, including virtual liquidity reserves, is designed to address the liquidity challenges for less-traded assets in DeFi.With the aid of AI-driven systems like Minerva, DeFi platforms can optimize liquidity allocation, potentially offering higher returns for liquidity providers and more efficient trades for users.Links relevant to the conversationEvgeny’s academic web page:https://lyandres.sites.tau.ac.il/VirtuSwap website: https://virtuswap.io/Previous episodes on web3, DeFi, crypto or blockchain:The Future of VC: Blockchain, Web3, and Emerging Markets w/ Qin En Looi, Partner, Saison Capital – EP256https://economicsexplored.com/2024/10/01/the-future-of-vc-blockchain-web3-and-emerging-markets-w-qin-en-looi-partner-saison-capital-ep256/Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249  https://economicsexplored.com/2024/08/14/navigating-volatile-crypto-markets-avoiding-scams-w-ben-simpson-collective-shift-ep249/Digital Money Demystified w/ Prof. Tonya Evans – EP216https://economicsexplored.com/2023/11/30/digital-money-demystified-w-prof-tonya-evans-ep216/Crypto arbitrage searcher Dave Belvedere on crypto and dApps such as Wizards & Dragons – EP178https://economicsexplored.com/2023/03/08/crypto-arbitrage-searcher-dave-belvedere-on-crypto-and-dapps-such-as-wizards-dragons-ep178/Bitcoin & books w/ author & ex-fighter pilot Lars Emmerich – EP157https://economicsexplored.com/2022/09/18/bitcoin-books-w-author-ex-fighter-pilot-lars-emmerich-ep157/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Economist and returning guest Darren Brady Nelson shares insights from his time as the top door-knocker for the Trump campaign in the battleground state of Wisconsin. He explains why Trump’s messages on inflation, immigration, and cultural issues resonated with voters. He breaks down Trump’s economic vision for the second term, including plans for Elon Musk to lead a government reorganisation. Show host Gene Tunny and Darren discuss the prospects for repairing the US budget and the possible economic implications of Trump’s fiscal and trade policies. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Timestamps for EP261Introduction (0:00)Darren’s experience as Trump’s top doorknocker in Wisconsin (3:00)Why Trump won (11:40)Illegal immigration (15:05)Trump and monetary policy (27:30)Elon Musk and government efficiency (33:00)Trump and trade (48:15)Final Thoughts (57:00)Links relevant to the conversationBio for Darren Brady Nelson available here:https://economicsexplored.com/regular-guests/Statistics on illegal immigration in the US:https://cmsny.org/us-undocumented-population-increased-in-july-2023-warren-090624/https://lamborn.house.gov/issues/illegal-immigrationStanford University briefing on China’s Use of Unofficial Trade Barriers in the U.S.-China Trade War:https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/china-briefs/chinas-use-unofficial-trade-barriers-us-china-trade-warRelevant previous episodes:Is Uncle Sam Running a Ponzi Scheme with the National Debt? w/ Dr Dan Mitchell – EP235 - https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235/US infrastructure: lessons from Australia, with Darren Brady Nelson - https://dashboard.simplecast.com/accounts/a4c530a8-52a1-4290-95a3-19c00e80602c/shows/a3789cf6-a26b-464a-ab7f-551db331ee09/episodes/6134a946-eab5-4a0c-bbe3-dfae5a6bf200/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Wharton Professor Michael Useem joins host Gene Tunny to discuss his new book, Resolute Japan, which unveils Japan’s emerging shift in management practices fueling a corporate revival. Japanese companies are adopting ambidextrous management, empowering frontline employees, and embracing Western practices while retaining stakeholder-first traditions. He emphasizes the importance of top management in driving change and the potential for Japan to regain global economic prominence by learning from domestic and international best practices.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Timestamps for EP260Introduction and Overview of the Podcast (0:00)Japan's Economic Downturn and Resurgence (3:30)Methodology and Interview Process (5:44)Innovative Management Practices in Japan (11:29)Ambidextrous Management and Global Influence (21:51)Challenges and Opportunities for Japan (42:36)Economic Research on Management Impact (42:58)Final Thoughts and Recommendations (52:47)TakeawaysJapanese companies are adopting innovative management practices, such as empowering frontline employees and embracing the "gemba walk" to better understand operations.Japanese companies are retaining their commitment to stakeholders, including employees, the community, and the country, while also becoming more open to adopting Western-style management principles.The concept of "ambidextrous management" is emerging, where companies are exploring new industries while exiting declining ones, demonstrating a willingness to adapt to changing market conditions.There is an increasing openness among Japanese companies to learn from and adopt best practices from other countries, which is helping drive their resurgence.The impact of top management changes can significantly influence a company's performance, suggesting the importance of resolute leadership in driving change and improvement.Links relevant to the conversationProfessor Michael Useem’s profile:https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/useem/Resolute Japan book:https://www.amazon.com.au/Resolute-Japan-Leaders-Corporate-Resurgence/dp/1613631820OECD Economic Surveys - Japan 2024:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-japan-2024_41e807f9-enLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Ken Wilcox, former CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, discusses his book "The China Business Conundrum" and the challenges of doing business in China. He explains the concept of "one bed, two dreams," highlighting the disparity in goals between western and Chinese joint venture partners. Wilcox details his bank's entry into China, emphasizing the strategic invitations and control exerted by the Chinese Communist Party. He recounts the extensive regulations and control mechanisms, including a three-year restriction on using Chinese currency. Despite the challenges, Wilcox values the experience, noting the complex interdependence between the U.S. and China.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Ken WilcoxKen Wilcox was the CEO of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) from 2001 to 2011, then the CEO of SVB's joint venture with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB-SVB) in Shanghai until 2015, followed by four years as its Vice Chairman. He currently serves on the boards of the AsiaSociety of Northern California, the Asian Art Museum, and UC San Diego's 21st Century China Center, as well as Columbia Lake Partners, a European venture-debt fund. He is on the Board of Advisors of the Fudan University School of Management in Shanghai and an Adjunct Professor at U.C. Berkeley.Ken holds a PhD in German from Ohio State University and an MBA from Harvard Business School. He has given numerous speeches in both English and Chinese, published a variety of articles in the banking press, and recently wrote the management book Leading Through Culture: How Real Leaders Create Cultures That Motivate People to Achieve Great Things (Waterside Productions, 2020) and its accompanying workbook, How About You? (Waterside Productions, 2023). His account of establishing an innovation bank in China, The China Business Conundrum: Ensure that Win-Win Doesn’t Mean Western Companies Lose Twice, is forthcoming from Wiley.To connect with Ken, please visit: www.linkedin.com/in/kenwilcoxsvb/Timestamps for EP259Introduction and Overview of the Podcast (0:00)Ken Wilcox's Journey into China (4:40)Challenges and Strategic Invitations in China (8:10)Guanxi and Corruption in Business Relationships (14:13)State Control and Joint Venture Challenges (20:42)Impact of SVB's Collapse and Final Reflections (40:02)TakeawaysJoint ventures in China often suffer from differing goals between Western companies and their Chinese partners, a phenomenon Ken Wilcox refers to as "One Bed, Two Dreams."The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds significant control over both private and state-owned companies, making it difficult for foreign businesses to operate independently.Guanxi, a system of mutual obligation and trust, plays a critical role in business relationships in China, but it often involves navigating corruption and complex social expectations.Foreign companies entering China are often targeted for their intellectual property, and the CCP uses strategic partnerships to gain technological insights.Ken Wilcox’s experience with Silicon Valley Bank in China illustrates the frustrations foreign firms face due to slow regulatory processes and overwhelming state control.Links relevant to the conversationKen’s book “The China Business Conundrum”:https://www.amazon.com.au/China-Business-Conundrum-Win-Win-Companies/dp/1394294166Previous Economics Explored episodes on China:China’s Economic Future Under Xi & the Australia-China Relationship w/ Emmanuel Daniel – EP253 https://economicsexplored.com/2024/09/17/chinas-economic-future-under-xi-the-australia-china-relationship-w-emmanuel-daniel-ep253/Enterprise China: what western businesses need to know w/ Prof. Allen Morrison  – EP171https://economicsexplored.com/2022/12/26/enterprise-china-what-western-businesses-need-to-know-w-prof-allen-morrison-ep171/Why we’re in the Decisive Decade with China & what the West should do w/ Dr Jonathan D. T. Ward – EP182https://economicsexplored.com/2023/04/09/why-were-in-the-decisive-decade-with-china-what-the-west-should-do-w-dr-jonathan-d-t-ward-ep182/China, Taiwan & the Indo-Pacific w/ Dr Greta Nabbs-Keller – EP146https://economicsexplored.com/2022/07/04/china-taiwan-the-indo-pacific-w-dr-greta-nabbs-keller-ep146/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Marian Tupy, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, discusses his book "Super Abundance" with Gene Tunny. Tupy argues that resources are becoming more abundant relative to global population, a concept he calls "super abundance." He explains that human ingenuity has led to cheaper commodities over time. Tupy refutes Malthusian predictions of resource scarcity, citing examples like the Haber-Bosch process for synthetic fertilizer. He also addresses environmental concerns, emphasizing that economic growth and technological advancements can mitigate issues like ocean and air pollution and resource depletion.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About this episode’s guest: Marian Tupy, Cato InstituteMarian L. Tupy is the founder and editor of Human​Progress​.org, and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity.He is the co-author of the Simon Abundance Index, Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet (2022) and Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know: And Many Others You Will Find Interesting (2020).His articles have been published in the Financial Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, Newsweek, the U.K. Spectator, Foreign Policy, and various other outlets both in the United States and overseas. He has appeared on BBC, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, Fox News, Fox Business, and other channels.Tupy received his BA in international relations and classics from the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, and his PhD in international relations from the University of St. Andrews in the United Kingdom.Source: https://www.cato.org/people/marian-l-tupyTimestamps for EP258Introduction and Overview of the Podcast (0:00)Explaining the Concept of Super Abundance (2:30)Methodology and Stylized Facts (6:48)Julian Simon and the Bet with Paul Ehrlich (9:46)Future Prospects and Human Ingenuity (12:45)Environmental Concerns and Degrowth (22:59)Population Growth and Resource Use (33:11)Final Thoughts and Future Prospects (34:08)TakeawaysTupy argues that human ingenuity continuously expands the resource base, making resources more abundant even as populations grow.The concept of "time prices" shows that resources are becoming cheaper relative to wages, supporting the thesis of super abundance.The famous Simon-Ehrlich bet demonstrates that commodities became cheaper over time, disproving doomsday predictions about resource depletion.Technological advancements, such as desalination and agricultural productivity, are key to sustaining resource abundance.Economic prosperity and technological innovation are essential for environmental protection.Links relevant to the conversationMarian’s book Superabundance:https://www.amazon.com.au/Superabundance-Population-Growth-Innovation-Flourishing/dp/1952223393Simon–Ehrlich wager Wikipedia entry:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wagerRegarding the question, “Is it true that the majority of plastic in the oceans comes from Asia and Africa?” see:https://www.perplexity.ai/search/is-it-true-that-the-majority-o-3aYOSMTyT6m9CcULDm7IugLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED