Global Security Briefing

With the Vilnius NATO summit fast approaching, we consider what arrangements need to be made to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty. The current focus of the international community is on sustaining and developing Ukraine’s warfighting capabilities to defend its territory and repel the Russian aggression. But ahead of the July NATO summit in Vilnius, attention is also turning to the task of ensuring Ukraine’s longer-term security, with pressure growing to grant Ukraine new security guarantees or even membership of NATO. While it is difficult to predict the exact situation that will prevail when major combat ceases, Russia is likely to remain a long-term threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty, society and economy, and the prospect of a return to full-scale war or a protracted conflict together with hybrid and disinformation operations remains high. In this episode, host Neil Melvin talks to Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Defence Minister of Ukraine from 2019 to 2020 and currently the Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, about what arrangements need to be made to protect the future of Ukraine. What sort of security support will it need? What are the security arrangements that are being proposed at the Vilnius summit? And why are some NATO members reluctant to extend membership of the organisation to Ukraine?

Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought into focus the enduring links between Moscow and Beijing. How will this tandem shape the future of global competition? Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022, where they released a joint statement proclaiming their ‘no limits’ partnership. Three weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Beijing has subsequently walked a careful and rather ambiguous line over the conflict, refusing to condemn the invasion and resisting Western pressure to isolate Russia on the one hand, while on the other hand appearing reluctant to provide Russia with the military assistance needed to tip the war in its favour. Many observers suggest that one of the most significant outcomes of the war will be a closer but asymmetrical alliance between Moscow and Beijing, with Russia in a much-reduced position. In this episode, host Neil Melvin discusses with Emily Ferris, Research Fellow at RUSI, and Raffaello Pantucci, Senior Associate Fellow, how the war is affecting this bilateral relationship. Is China ready to back Russia financially and militarily? How deep is the trust between Moscow and Beijing?

As Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerges as the winner of Turkey’s presidential elections, we examine what this means for the country, the region and the world. Erdoğan’s victory hardly came as a surprise. He had almost won in the first round, gaining 49.51% of the vote compared to 44.8% for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the 74-year-old retired civil servant leading the Republican People’s Party in alliance with other opposition movements. But ahead of the vote, there had been a real sense that Erdoğan faced a tough re-election battle, given Turkey’s skyrocketing inflation and the inadequate response to the earthquakes that devastated the country in February. In this episode, host Neil Melvin talks to Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, Associate Fellow at RUSI, and Dr Ziya Meral, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, about the impact of this victory. Why did Erdoğan win? Will Turkey stick to what Erdoğan calls a ‘balanced policy’ between NATO and Russia? And how close to China is Turkey prepared to move?

As the contours of a new Saudi Arabia emerge under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, we analyse domestic and foreign policy reforms in a changing Kingdom. Saudi Arabia is arguably the most powerful Arab country, and one of the key regional powers in the Middle East today. But Saudi Arabia’s importance goes far beyond the region. Its territory includes the two holiest sites in Islam – Mecca and Medina – giving the Kingdom a special global status. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is the world’s most important oil exporter, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has served to emphasise its crucial role in international energy markets. Through its Crown Prince, the contours of a new Saudi foreign policy seem to be emerging. This includes a changing and often fractious relationship with the US and the West; an increasingly warm and perhaps strategic relationship with China; and a steadfast refusal to break with Russia over its war in Ukraine – regardless of Western pressure. Host Neil Melvin sits down with RUSI Senior Research Fellow Tobias Borck to discuss the state of Saudi Arabia’s reform efforts. How is the Kingdom navigating the changing global environment, and specifically, how is it approaching its relations with global powers like the US, Russia and China? And does Europe fit into the equation at all?

As geopolitical competition intensifies, we look at the future trajectory of the UK–Africa relationship. For over two decades, international conversations about Africa were dominated by Western aid and preoccupations with the Global War on Terrorism. But recently, with great and middle powers visibly competing for influence across Africa, a new layer of complexity has been added to relations. For countries such as the UK and France, knowing how and when to engage can be a challenge: both countries have chequered histories that include colonialism, centuries of trade and two-way migration, support for development and – in the UK’s case – profit from slavery as well as support for its abolishment. Yet, Africa is a diverse and dynamic continent, and presents openings and opportunities to those who engage in the right way.. In this episode, Neil Melvin talks to Ted Elgar, Head of Research at the Coalition for Global Prosperity, and Simon Rynn, Senior Research Fellow for African Security at RUSI, to discuss the prospects for fruitful cooperation between the UK and Africa.

In early April, Finland became the newest member of NATO, significantly changing the Alliance’s northern flank, as well as deeply impacting Nordic and Baltic security in the face of the war in Ukraine. The war has rapidly altered Finnish security policy. Almost immediately after the invasion, public support for NATO membership leaped from a steady 25% in favour to around 75%. On 18 May 2022, Finland and Sweden simultaneously submitted their official letters of application, and NATO heads of state and government invited them both to join the Alliance at the Madrid Summit on 29 June. As Finland officially joined the Alliance in April 2023, we examine the impact of this on the European security environment, as well as on the UK as a growing security actor in Northern Europe, and one with strong bilateral ties to Finland. In this episode of the Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin sits down with Matti Pesu, Leading Researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), and Ed Arnold, Research Fellow for European Security at RUSI, to discuss how Finland’s security policy is changing and how NATO membership will likely change Finland as a European security actor. How will the UK–Finnish defence and security relationship develop, and where are the priority areas for enhanced cooperation?

Originally published 6 April 2023. After over two years, the Bridging the Oceans podcast is coming to an end. Bridging the Oceans, hosted by Veerle Nouwens, was the first podcast dedicated specifically to the defence and security of the Indo-Pacific. It explored what the Indo-Pacific is, where its limits lay, and what the fast-evolving defence and security issues were in this dynamic part of the world. Together with a diverse range of experts, the podcast analysed today’s top geopolitical questions in the Indo-Pacific, understanding how these were seen within the region itself, and considered how these issues may impact the wider region including the United Kingdom.

Dr. Bates Gill, Executive Director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, and Professor Rory Medcalf, Head of the National Security College, share their insights on the AUKUS pact. They discuss whether AUKUS can effectively counter China’s growing military influence in the Indo-Pacific. The conversation covers Australia’s substantial investment in nuclear submarines and the political complexities at play. They also examine China’s critical response, the role of the UK post-Brexit, and the implications for regional stability. Will AUKUS reshape defense strategies?

This episode focuses on how global energy trends have shaped the geopolitics of the MENA for much of the past century, and how they will continue to do so. For over two decades, the region seemed to be losing a lot of its energy importance for the West. Both the US and European countries have sought to reduce their involvement in MENA geopolitics, declaring instead their intention to focus on the Indo-Pacific. This all changed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent energy crisis in Europe. As European countries have scrambled to replace oil and gas supplies from Russia, they have returned to the MENA. Furthermore, later this year, the UAE will host COP28, the UN’s annual climate change conference. Host Neil Melvin discusses with Tobias Borck, Research Fellow for Middle East Security at RUSI, the big developments in the geopolitics of energy in the MENA. How are the oil and gas producers of the MENA region reacting to the renewed interest from Europe and the West, and how are they positioning themselves internationally? For all this and more, tune in now!

Originally published 15 March 2023. The recent annual meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress (NPC) - the ‘Two Sessions’ - have already confirmed the national budget, high-level personnel appointments, and noted China's foreign and security outlook. Newly appointed Foreign Minister Qin Gang used tough language when discussing the US, while President Xi accused the West – led by the US – of seeking China's containment. Amid growing strains in the Sino-US relationship, our host Veerle Nouwens sits down with Bonny Lin, Senior Fellow for Asian Security and Director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, to discuss the future trajectory of the bilateral relationship.