Global Security Briefing

As the war enters its second winter and third year, are we now facing the prospect of battles lasting until at least 2025? The prospect of an immediate decisive military breakthrough for Ukraine has disappeared. Kyiv’s offensive – launched in the summer – has largely subsided, with Ukraine’s troops exhausted from over six months of intense fighting. At the same time, Ukraine’s key international support pillars are under pressure. Depleted Western armouries will have far less to provide to Ukraine in the year ahead. Western political unity is being questioned, with struggles in the US Congress to ensure that Kyiv receives the critical military and economic assistance that it will need in 2024. And the EU is facing questions about whether there will be the unanimity to agree a €50-billion aid package and to open membership negotiations. Within Ukraine there are growing signs of concern about the current direction of the war. With the military campaign appearing to face a period of prolonged stalemate, in this episode of Global Security Briefing we are joined by Mark Galeotti, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Principal Director, Mayak Intelligence.

As India is quickly developing as a major power, Global Security Briefing considers its prospects as a partner for the UK in the context of the Indo-Pacific ‘Tilt’ The world has many emerging powers, but India is probably the one with the greatest potential to shift the balance in the Indo-Pacific and, perhaps, the world over coming generations. Following independence, India forged a ‘non-aligned’ path through the Cold War. For most of its history, its main security threat came from neighbouring Pakistan, with which it has fought a series of wars, and competed successfully in a race to acquire nuclear weapons. Today, it is the prospect that India might take a side in the great power competition between the USA and China that is drawing the attention of the world. India’s gigantic population and skills base also makes it an attractive market and technology partner, not least for Britain, as the UK seeks to develop new economic relations after leaving the EU. The UK government’s ‘Integrated Review’ of March 2021 described India as “an international actor of growing importance” and states the ambition to transform the UK’s cooperation with India “across the full range of our shared interests”. UK-India relations are framed by a mutually agreed roadmap to deepen bilateral ties by 2030 with the aim of developing a comprehensive strategic partnership. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Walter Ladwig III of King’s College London. Beyond what it offers the UK ‘tilt’, the trajectory of India’s rise appears certain to influence the outcome of military strategic rivalry, the evolution of global governance and the competition of different civilisational values. The question is ‘how?’.

With David Cameron's return to government, this episode of the Global Security Briefing analyses the UK's approach to China over the past decade. The UK’s 2023 Integrated Review Refresh declares China a ‘an epoch-defining systemic challenge’. This is a far cry from the tone of the earlier UK policy from 2015, when the then-Cameron government referred to the bilateral relationship with Beijing as entering a ‘golden era’. This apparent discrepancy has prompted calls for greater coherence in policy execution, public debate and scrutiny. In this episode, we are joined by RUSI's Senior Associate Fellow and Founding Director of the UK National Committee on China, Andrew Cainey, to ask: what is the UK's current China policy, and is a strategy document the best way to achieve desired results?

Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October has opened a new chapter in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. We examine how the war is set to reshape the Middle East for years to come. In a highly complex attack that included a missile barrage and an invasion of southern Israel, Hamas killed 1,400 people and took over 200 people hostage – mostly Israelis, but also a significant number of foreign nationals. Israel has responded with overwhelming military force in the Gaza Strip, vowing to destroy Hamas once and for all. Thus far, Israel’s extensive air campaign and artillery bombardment has killed thousands of Palestinians. There are fears that the conflict could escalate further. For the UK and the rest of Europe, the war also represents a difficult challenge. Most European governments have declared strong support for Israel, but there are also growing calls for a ceasefire. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Tobias Borck and Dr Louise Kettle, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, to discuss how the war between Israel and Hamas is evolving.

This episode explores the future of UK–EU relations in the light of current challenges. In the spring of 2021, the Integrated Review signalled the UK's future approach to European security post-Brexit, with an ambitious agenda for 'Global Britain'. Over two years on, there is a palpable sense that the UK may have turned a corner in its relations with the EU, with the ‘Windsor Framework’ agreement in early 2023 ending the most bitter Brexit dispute. Perhaps for the first time since the 2016 vote to leave the EU, the UK can begin to look ahead with greater confidence to its place in Europe and the wider world. Host Neil Melvin ponders with Richard Whitman, Director of the Global Europe Centre and Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent, whether the UK has found a new post-Brexit foreign and security policy, and discusses how the UK is approaching wider European security framework questions such as NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.

Over a year and a half after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with both sides incurring significant losses, is the conflict coming to a standstill? In February 2022, Moscow aimed to seize Ukraine quickly. But 20 months later, the war grinds on inconclusively, with untold human suffering. Both sides are looking to restock, rearm and mobilise new troops. Ukraine is now coming up against serious constraints on what more can be provided from Western stocks, and there is growing political unease in Europe and the US about the implications of a long-term commitment to Kyiv. Is the conflict heading for deadlock, and if so, what are the implications for the region? What is the risk of a protracted war? And how can Russia best be managed and deterred in the medium and long term? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Principal Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence, as well as Honorary Professor at University College London’s School of Slavonic and East European Studies, to discuss some of these questions.

As we explore the evolving nature of South Korean foreign and security policies, we ask whether the country is emerging as a more significant international actor. South Korea’s foreign and security policies have traditionally been defined by regional interests and, above all, the unresolved conflict with North Korea. However, in recent years, South Korea has expanded its foreign policy horizons. In 2022, it adopted its own Indo-Pacific Strategy. Seoul has also backed sanctions against Russia in support of Ukraine’s independence. In addition, it has actively supported the G7’s coordination of the response to the war, and the South Korean president has attended recent NATO summits. This new foreign policy direction is divisive domestically. In this episode, host Neil Melvin asks Professor Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of the Department of European and International Studies and Professor of International Relations at King’s College London, about the nature of South Korea as a foreign policy actor. How should Seoul seek to position itself in the rising confrontation between the US and its allies on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other?

In the final part of our examination of challenges to the Western liberal order, we take a look at the likely future shape of global security. Previously on GSB, we asked Professor Stephen Walt whether an alternative international order, challenging the existing one, is emerging. We then had discussions with country experts sharing their analysis of the main challenges to the West across various parts of the world, and whether these regions will play significant roles in shaping the future international order. To bring all these threads together, host Neil Melvin is joined by Paul Poast, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a non-resident fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. What might the future of global security look like? What sort of international order are we moving towards? And what are the risks in the emerging international order, including those of major wars?

In this episode , we turn to three key regions shaping the discussion around whether a counter-West order is emerging. So far in our summer series, we’ve explored whether an alternative international order is challenging the global governance system established after the Second World War, and what the implications are for global security. Africa, Latin America and the Middle East hold unique viewpoints, and while each region has distinct historical, economic and political dynamics, they collectively contribute to the ongoing discourse and developments linked to global power shifts. These regions are also rapidly emerging as arenas in which Western and counter-West states are competing for influence and access to resources. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Carlos Solar, Tobias Borck and Simon Rynn from the International Security team at RUSI to consider how developments across these regions are shaping their role in a new world order.

In the second episode of our four-part summer series, we explore the role that Russia, China and Iran play in countering the Western-led international order. Russia, China and Iran have become increasingly confrontational in both rhetoric and actions, advocating for alternative frameworks and principles that reflect and advance their own geopolitical interests. They argue that we are witnessing a shift towards a multipolar world where power is more evenly distributed, and that this is the basis for a new global order. The war in Ukraine seems to have solidified not only the trilateral grouping as an anti-Western bloc, but also its resolve. Our host Neil Melvin is joined by Emily Ferris, Research Fellow at RUSI; Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI; and Philip Shetler-Jones, Thematic Coordinator, Crisis Management, Enhancing Security Cooperation In and With Asia (ESIWA) project, to discuss how these three players are shaping the new security landscape.