Inside this episodeAurelien Mali and David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discuss the economic and credit implications for Sub-Saharan Africa of weaker global demand and constrained access to financing, as well as how a more diverse creditor base complicates debt negotiations and liquidity relief for countries in the region with lower credit quality.Related ContentMoody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.Sovereign Monitor: Impact of coronavirus on Sub-Saharan Africa, November 2020 Sovereign and Supranational - Sub-Saharan Africa: More dispersed creditor base complicates potential debt restructuring negotiations. The willingness of Chinese creditors to accept losses on principal in particular will have important implications for potential losses incurred by bondholders.

Inside this episodeAnushka Shah of the Sovereign team discusses how the coronavirus is exacerbating income inequality across emerging Asia, which will pose challenges to governments with weak social protection systems and low capacity to raise spending. Also, Matthew Kuchtyak of the ESG team looks at the growing importance of social issues for global investors, as reflected in the recent record issuance of sustainable bonds.Related content:Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.Sovereign and Supranational — Asia Pacific: Pandemic shock will spur income inequality, with credit risks for fiscally weak sovereigns The impact of the coronavirus pandemic will exacerbate income inequality across Asia Pacific (APAC). Governments with constrained fiscal capacity have limited scope to address the resulting social and political strains, which could amplify credit risks.Cross-Sector — Sustainable Finance – Global: Record issuance of sustainable bonds in Q3 2020 as green bond volumes recover Global green, social and sustainability bond issuance totalled a record $127.3 billion in the third quarter of 2020, 30% higher than the previous record achieved during Q2 2020. 

Inside this episode:Michael Taylor and Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the rising credit strains on many emerging market countries that are part of the Belt & Road Initiative and the direction of the plan post-pandemic. Plus, analyst Nishad Majmudar talks about our analysis of ESG-related credit considerations in emerging market rating actions across sectors.Related content:Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.​​​Post-pandemic credit stress points to leaner, greener future for Belt and Road The coronavirus crisis and global economic downturn have exacerbated underlying credit risks that have built up in recent years across many countries that participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.ESG risks are prevalent in emerging markets, especially in the public sector Environmental, social and governance risks are often higher in emerging markets than in developed markets and debt issuers' capacity to address these risks is often weaker.

Inside this episode:Analysts Sarah Carlson, Eugene Tarzimanov and Carolina Chimenti discuss the 2021 credit outlook for sovereigns, banks and companies across emerging market countries. The wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus will continue to be a dominant credit theme, along with still-weak tourism prospects, low oil prices and the rollback of forbearance and fiscal support in a number of countries.Related content:Tentative recovery for global emerging markets in 2021. While we expect a bounce in headline GDP growth, emerging market credit conditions will remain fragile and vulnerable to setbacks. Several important factors, including the ability to restore revenue and earnings and adapt to emerging opportunities and threats, will shape performance across regions, sectors and asset classes.Moody's Emerging Markets Hub​ Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.​​

Inside this episode:Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team explains how the path to fiscal repair for many emerging market economies will likely be long and bumpy as revenue generation remains a struggle.Plus, William Foster, also of the Sovereign team, discusses whether India’s new fiscal stimulus push will be sufficient to jumpstart the country’s economy.Related content:Second round of stimulus will provide limited support to growth, highlights credit-negative fiscal constraintsRecovering revenue post coronavirus crisis will be crucial but challengingMoody's Event: State of Nations - EMEA and Americas

Original publish date: October 14, 2020Inside this episode:Ivy Poon of the Infrastructure Finance team discusses how fiscal support will help offset the rise in leverage for infrastructure issuers resulting from increased capital spending on transportation, renewable energy and other projects.Celina Vansetti-Hutchins of the Banking team explains what the rapid drop in Brazilian interest rates this year means for credit conditions for the country’s banks.​Related content:Falling lending spreads amid record-low rates are credit negative for Brazilian banksPolicy support for infrastructure investment will aid economic recovery 

Original publish date: September 30, 2020Inside this episode:Constantinos Kypreos of the Banking team talks about the mounting credit strains on African banks, a reflection of the weakening financial strength of their home countries.Elisa Parisi-Capone of the Sovereign team examines the credit effects of Lebanon’s economic, financial and social crisis, as well as the potential for reforms.​Related content:Pressures on sovereigns from coronavirus crisis weakens banks’ credit profilesSovereign and Supranational - Government of Lebanon - C No Outlook: Annual credit analysis

Original publish date: September 16, 2020Inside this episode:Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the steep decline in Mexican employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and why the road to recovery will be long. Evan Wohlmann of the Sovereign team explains how heightened political instability in Belarus is negative for the country’s sovereign credit quality.​​​Related content:Credit Conditions – Mexico: Steep job losses and slow recovery prospects will deepen economic malaiseGovernment of Belarus – B3 Stable: Regular updateMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: September 2, 2020Inside this episode:Elena Duggar discusses the Credit Strategy & Research team’s analysis of the four main causes of sovereign bond defaults and how environmental, social and governance issues can be contributing factors. Atsi Sheth explains how increased manufacturing output and Chinese economic activity point to an incipient rebound in global trade.​​​Related content:Global Trade Monitor – August 2020The causes of sovereign defaultsCOVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade systemMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: August 19, 2020Inside this episode:Christian de Guzman of the Sovereign team discusses how lower wages and the fall in employment of migrant workers in advanced economies will result in a decline in remittances to some developing economies. Banking team analyst Nitish Bhojnagarwala talks about our outlook for the issuance of Islamic sukuk bonds.​Related content:Sukuk issuance set for modest decline despite coronavirus outbreakLower remittances after coronavirus to hurt consumption, raise external risks in major recipient countriesMoody's Emerging Markets Focus