Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded

Original publish date: August 5, 2020Inside this episode:Corporates analyst Lahlou Meksaoui discusses the credit outlook for UAE property developers. Sean Hwang, also from the Corporates team, talks about prospects for a revival of Macao's gaming sector.​​​Related content:Double hit from coronavirus and oil price slump will erode credit quality for mostEnd of quarantine for mainland tourists is credit positive for gaming companiesMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: July 22, 2020Inside this episode:Artem Frolov of the Corporates team provides insight about our cautiously optimistic view of Russian oil companies’ credit dynamics despite the adverse operating environment. Michael Higgins of the Sovereign team discusses the challenges and recovery prospects for non-investment grade emerging and frontier market sovereigns.​​Related content:Russian oil majors’ credit quality will stay solid despite coronavirus, oil price pressureCoronavirus shock triggers sharp economic downturn and intensifies fiscal and external liquidity challengesMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: July 8, 2020Inside this episode:Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock.Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.​​​​Related content:Financial conditions stabilise, but pandemic fallout casts shadow on H2 credit prospectsMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: June 24, 2020Inside this episode:David Rogovic of the Sovereigns team discusses how the global travel slump is hurting emerging market countries, particularly small island-economies with a heavy dependence on tourism revenue. Barbara Mattos of the Corporates team shares insights as to how Brazilian mining giant Vale, a bellwether for the sector, is faring after coronavirus related disruption to its operations. ​​​​​​​Related content:Lack of economic diversification and fiscal space leave small, island economies vulnerable to sustained drop in tourismCoronavirus outbreak halts Itabira, a credit negative for operational stabilityMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: June 10, 2020Inside this episode:Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the prospects for economic recovery and employment stability in China as the country tries to revitalize growth following the coronavirus.Kelvin Dalrymple from the Sovereign team talks about the twin shocks for East Africa of the coronavirus and a locust infestation that threatens the region’s crops.​Related content:Policy sessions indicate economic recovery, employment are government's top prioritiesWorld Bank's emergency funding for East Africa points to risks from intensifying locust swarmsMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: May 27, 2020Inside this episode:Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team discusses a debt relief initiative for low-income countries grappling with liquidity pressures. Daniela Jayesuria of the Structured Finance team offers insights on coronavirus-related debt moratoriums for individual and corporate borrowers in Latin America, one of the biggest securitization markets in emerging markets.​​​​​Related content:Rating Action: Moody's places Pakistan's B3 rating under review for downgradeGovernment of Ethiopia – B2 RUR; Update following downgrade and initiation of review for further downgradePolicy support will mitigate economic damage but will not avert recessionsMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: May 13, 2020Inside this episode:Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy and Research team shares insights on how the coronavirus will likely push the global economy into recession this year, and why the downturn poses particular risks for emerging markets. Sean Marion of the Financial Institutions team discusses why credit risks are rising for South African banks.​​​​​Related content:Coronavirus and the Economy: Alternative Data MonitorGlobal Macro Outlook 2020-21 (April 2020 Update): Global recession is deepening rapidly as restrictions exact high economic costBanking System Outlook Update - South Africa: Credit profiles will weaken as the coronavirus pushes economy into recessionMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: April 29, 2020Inside this episode:Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team discuss the factors behind our recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and domestic energy giant PEMEX. Insights from Franco Leung of the Corporates team on the weaker operating environment for China’s property sector, one of the most active segments in emerging Asia debt markets.​​​​Related content:Government of Mexico – Baa1 negative; update following rating downgrade to Baa1, outlook negativeRating Action: Moody's downgrades PEMEX's ratings to Ba2; negative outlookOutlook turns negative; but most rated developers are stronger than broad sectorMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: April 15, 2020Inside this episode: India’s sweeping lockdown to combat the coronavirus outbreak is the largest restriction of movement the world has ever seen. In this episode, Moody’s analysts William Foster and Alka Anbarasu talk through the credit implications of containment efforts for the country’s government and banks. Analyst Gabriel Torres also joins to discuss Argentina’s economic outlook and prospects for another debt restructuring.Related content:Government of India – Baa2 negative; update following forecast changeGovernment of Argentina – Ca negative; update following downgrade to Ca, outlook negativeOutlook changed to negative as coronavirus outbreak and bank default add to risksMoody's Emerging Markets Focus

Original publish date: April 1, 2020Inside this episode:Marie Diron discusses what’s ahead for emerging market sovereigns as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and demand for oil drops. Matthew Kuchtyak discusses our outlook for sustainable finance and ESG investing in emerging markets after a landmark year in 2019​​​​​.Related content:Coronavirus and oil price shock magnify weaknesses highlighted in negative 2020 outlookDeepening ESG focus in emerging markets will spur growth in sustainable debtMoody's Emerging Markets Focus