RJ Bell's Dream Preview

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk college football betting for week 14. Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open with intensity after motivational commands highlight football’s core themes of physicality, hustle, and leaving no doubt. Warner introduces the final-weekend discussion focused on four major games and best bets, noting unstable internet before asking Smith for last-week takeaways. Smith explains their split best bets, Michigan pulling away from Maryland, Georgia Tech’s momentum fading, and Missouri–Oklahoma unfolding exactly as handicapped. With top teams unchanged and coaching moves beginning, he sees minimal surprises. Warner commits to unders and transitions to Texas vs Texas A&M, asking whether Texas can reach the playoff. Smith says Texas needs significant help due to ranking position. Warner praises Texas’s rivalry history but questions A&M’s legitimacy; Smith sees A&M as strong but just below true title contenders, citing defense, run game, receivers, and inconsistent QB play while noting a major road win. Discussion shifts to the betting line: A&M -2. Smith expects the line to stay between -2 and -2.5, noting Sarkisian’s 2–8 ATS record as a dog and emphasizing Texas’s need to run with Wisner and Baxter while exploiting A&M’s vulnerable secondary. Warner doubts Texas’s offensive line but finds it hard to resist Texas as a home dog. They move to Auburn vs Alabama, where Alabama is -6. Smith stresses Alabama must win but has struggled historically in such spots. He highlights Auburn QB Deuce Knight’s 239 passing yards, 162 rushing yards, and six touchdowns versus Mercer while cautioning about competition level. Alabama’s 8–3 ATS record, rivalry history, and Auburn’s weak ATS numbers shape his expectation of a 7–10 point Alabama win. Warner questions why the line isn’t higher; Smith cites rivalry volatility and uncertainty surrounding Knight. Warner then transitions to Ohio State vs Michigan, with Ohio State -10. Smith outlines playoff implications: Ohio State is effectively secure; Michigan must win. He details Ohio State injuries, including Jeremiah Smith likely under 50 percent, and emphasizes Michigan’s physicality, home field, and improved health at running back. Michigan, he argues, can stay within the number by forcing Ohio State to run. Warner agrees the line feels inflated and sees classic value in a motivated home underdog. Next is Vanderbilt vs Tennessee, with Vandy +2.5. Smith calls it one of Vanderbilt’s biggest games ever, noting no bad losses, quality wins, Tennessee’s inconsistency, and Diego Pavia’s strong recent play. Tennessee’s vulnerable secondary and potential for explosive scoring lead him to prefer the over 66 and to lean Tennessee if betting but to wait on the line movement. Warner questions whether Vanderbilt’s performance is inflating perception; Smith argues the line reflects Tennessee’s flaws more than Vanderbilt’s rise. For best bets, Smith selects Washington as a home dog due to Oregon’s injuries and Washington’s balanced offense and defensive pressure, projecting a close score. Warner takes Michigan +10 for value, motivation, and home-field strength, closing the show with humor and gratitude. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for Week 12. The guys also preview Thanksgiving Day football games. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers break down the NFL Week 12 results, focusing on phony finals, line moves, quarterback value, and upcoming Thanksgiving games. They note several games where the winner failed to cover despite controlling yards and efficiency, including the Patriots over the Bengals, where New England dominated yards per play but failed in multiple goal-line stands. They discuss the evolving market perception of the Patriots, schedule strength adjustments, and how priors reduce by late season. They review the Burrow injury line movement and how the market prices uncertainty, concluding the Bengals’ performance showed the impact of disappointment when a QB ruled “possible” ultimately sits. They examine Seattle–Tennessee, emphasizing how big favorites coast late and how punt-return TDs distort stats, along with Cleveland–Las Vegas, highlighting Chip Kelly’s firing and expected offensive regression under new coordinator Greg Olson. They debate Sanders’ surprisingly explosive plays for the Browns and how film people upgraded him despite Fezzik’s skepticism. They analyze defensive player of the year odds, Miles Garrett’s sack trajectory, and how props handle fractional sacks. Detroit–Giants and Jacksonville–Cardinals illustrate end-game analytics, field-goal vs fourth-down decisions, and how many outcomes hinge on coaches avoiding going up six. They revisit Dallas–Philly, discussing the Eagles’ tendency toward half-game lulls, Dallas’ big-play advantage, and midseason defense regression. They consider Atlanta’s underrated strength after beating New Orleans and how overreactions to one bad QB performance distort markets. They break down Minnesota’s QB crisis, O’Connell’s ability to scheme around backups, and the incoming third-stringer Brosmer, speculating he may be an upgrade over McCarthy. They highlight the Rams’ surge behind Stafford’s MVP-level play, improved running game, and elite pass rush, contrasting with Tampa’s limitations. Late games include Baltimore–Cincinnati with Burrow returning on a short week but missing Higgins, leading to under considerations. Thanksgiving picks: Fezzik’s best bet is Green Bay–Detroit under due to slow pace, strong defenses, and divisional familiarity; RJ’s best bet is Dallas +3.5 vs Kansas City, citing the brutal Sunday-to-Thursday overtime trend (6–25 ATS) for road teams and KC’s emotional drain after a long OT game; they also like Cincinnati team-total under 21.5. They close by warning listeners not to overbet Thanksgiving and teasing more picks on Wednesday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joining the conversation is Steve Fezzik, a two-time Super Contest Champion and expert in NFL betting analysis. He argues for the Raiders team total over 19.5, highlighting Cleveland's poor defense and rookie QB turnover risk. Fezzik also supports the Colts to score first against the Chiefs, while RJ Bell makes a compelling case for the Colts at +3.5. Mackenzie Rivers pushes for the Lions at -10 over the Giants, backed by strong records and favorable matchups. The trio dives into market movements, game trends, and highlights key prop bets for Week 12.

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 13. Here is a tight, single-paragraph, no-line-break summary under 3400 characters, covering the full uploaded podcast transcript: Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open with a hype locker-room clip before breaking down Week 13 CFB betting. Griffin laments Texas’ collapse against Georgia, including the perfectly executed onside kick that swung momentum and effectively ended Texas’ playoff hopes. Lonte says Texas has no realistic path even if they beat A&M, with too many 10-2 teams in the way. They move to Oklahoma vs Missouri, noting OU was badly outgained by Alabama but won through turnovers, and both hosts prefer the under given OU’s defensive strength and offensive inconsistency with Mateer. Missouri’s run-heavy approach is unlikely to succeed against OU’s stacked boxes. They then discuss USC at Oregon, surprised the line jumped to Oregon -10. Lonte argues USC is undervalued, their offense can score even against elite defenses, and Oregon has looked weaker due to injuries; he expects a shootout and likes USC plus the points and the over. Griffin questions why the market inflates Oregon and agrees USC is live. Next is Pitt at Georgia Tech, a key ACC playoff-implication game; Lonte says Pitt likely overlooked Notre Dame last week but should be focused here, expects volatility from Pitt QB Veilleux, likes the over and thinks Pitt wins outright. Griffin notes GT’s small home-field edge and the market’s lukewarm respect for them. They then cover BYU at Cincinnati, with BYU controlling its Big 12 destiny while Cincinnati’s season is effectively over. Lonte cites BYU’s resilience and trench strength, saying they can limit Cincinnati’s powerful run game and win a close one. Griffin wonders why the market keeps undervaluing BYU despite consistent results. They promote a Pregame.com discount code, then deliver best bets: Lonte takes Maryland +14 vs Michigan, arguing Michigan hasn’t justified big spreads, struggles on the road, and Maryland is motivated with solid QB play. Griffin’s best bet is Missouri–Oklahoma under 42, citing OU’s offensive troubles, an early start, and Missouri’s limited explosiveness, expecting a defensive grind. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ bell and Mackenzie Rivers discuss NFL Week 11 recap. RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers open by recapping NFL Week 11, noting Fezzik’s absence and emphasizing angles others overlook. They start with the 49ers, praising Purdy and the offense while arguing the defense may be bottom-five. They discuss historic QB completion records, Otto Graham’s legacy, and how rule changes such as the Mel Blunt rule reshaped passing. Conversation shifts into an NBA tangent about Iverson, fandom, cultural vibe, and generational preferences. Returning to football, they emphasize how strong Purdy and Mac Jones have graded, with Jones ninth in their composite, while Purdy remains unqualified for full-season QBR. They evaluate explosive plays, win-probability peaks, and success-rate metrics, noting that Arizona never exceeded its opening 44% win chance and that San Francisco had the highest average win share of the week. They pivot to NFC standings, playoff bottlenecks, and division odds, then break down Seahawks–Rams, focusing on Sam Darnold’s struggles specifically vs McVay, turnovers swinging 18 points, and Seattle’s strong underlying performance despite losing. They argue Seattle might actually be better than the Rams absent the matchup issue. A long success-rate rundown shows nearly every team with higher success rate won except Atlanta and Seattle, illustrating how predictive the metric is. Discussion moves to MVP odds, Stafford’s candidacy, Drake Maye’s rapid rise, schedule context, and defensive strength-of-schedule nuances. They show New England’s recent opposing defenses have been tougher than people assume. They discuss KC’s fatigue after years of deep playoff runs, Belichick’s analytical edge, historical Patriots arcs, and how public hindsight warps perception. A long Steelers history tangent covers Rocky Bleier, 70s drafts, Super Bowl IX and X, and Pittsburgh lore. Returning to Week 11 games, they review Detroit–Philly, criticizing Sirianni’s late fourth-down call, then examine Baltimore–Cleveland, special teams swings, and San Francisco’s hidden defensive collapse. They close with thoughts on QB development timelines, how modern impatience discards young QBs too fast, and how players like Darnold or Mayfield can revive careers. The show ends with notes on New England’s rebuild, Belichick’s process, and a Kafka quote as an outro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SleepyJ and Mean Gene talk UFC betting for UFC 322 Madalena vs Makachev headlines a stacked UFC 322 card from MSG, with Sleepy J and Mean Gene breaking down eight fights. They agree early on Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez, both backing Blanchfield due to improved striking, strength, and ability to control exchanges despite Cortez winning their pre-UFC meeting. They also align on Roman Kopylov as a live underdog over Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues, citing Rodrigues’ shaky chin, tendency to brawl despite having grappling advantages, and Kopylov’s power and durability after facing an elite Paulo Costa. Next, both pick Bo Nickal over Rodolfo Vieira, expecting Nickal to lean on his elite wrestling in a measured, mistake-free game plan after his setbacks, likely controlling the ground without risking unnecessary stand-up exchanges. Their first disagreement comes with Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis: Gene picks BSD, trusting his pressure, power, and revived momentum, while Sleepy prefers Dariush’s superior skill and grappling if he can avoid big shots. Another split follows with Carlos Prates vs Leon Edwards; Sleepy sides with Edwards’ championship experience and durability, while Gene believes Prates’ relentless forward pressure and destructive power will break Edwards as others have recently. They reunite on Sean Brady over Michael Morales, expecting Brady’s grappling, control, and veteran savvy to neutralize Morales’ explosive striking and deliver a “vet lesson” in a key contender matchup. In the co-main event, Gene backs Zhang Weili moving up for two-division glory, praising her evolution, volume, and ability to capitalize on Shevchenko’s occasional grappling mistakes, while Sleepy takes Valentina Shevchenko as the stronger, cleaner, more technical striker with superior size and takedown defense. In the main event, both predict Islam Makachev dominates Jack Della Maddalena early, with Makachev’s wrestling, control, and improved striking overwhelming a dangerous but out-classed champion who still has defensive gaps against elite grapplers. They expect an early submission or dominant finish as Makachev pursues champ-champ status. The show wraps with confidence in the card’s quality, a few strategic disagreements to help bettors evaluate both sides, and reminders to use code HOOK50 at Pregame. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Munaf and Lonte get into NFL week 11 player props. Munaf and Lonte break down NFL Week 11 props on the Dream Preview: Munaf hosts with guest Lonte filling in for Sleepy J. They discuss the ugly Thursday game and move to QB props. Lonte’s QB pick: Josh Allen over ~219 pass yards vs Tampa, noting Buffalo’s bounce-back spot, Tampa’s recent defensive struggles (Goff 241, Mac 347, Darnold 341, Maye 270) and Buffalo leaning pass-heavy. Munaf’s QB pick: Jacoby Brissett over 236.5 pass yards vs SF based on four straight overs (320/279/261/258), injuries to Cards WRs, weak SF pass defense, and expected negative script. RB props: Lonte takes Kenneth Walker under 44.5 rush yards vs SF citing inconsistent workload, Charbonnet usage, SF run D, and poor matchup for Walker’s style. Munaf takes Jalen Warren over 101.5 rush+rec yards vs CIN after 158 last meeting, consistent recent volume, CIN giving up 141 rush yards + 44 receiving to RBs. WR/TE props: Lonte pivots to TE Brock Bowers over 70.5 yards vs Dallas due to mismatch vs DAL LBs, expected target spike, and previous big bounce-back after a one-catch game. Munaf backs Jaylen Waddle over 78.5 vs Washington (recent 95/99/82/84 games, WAS secondary allowing 178 to WRs, Waddle’s YAC and target expectation). Lonte doubles with Dalton Schultz over his receiving yards AND anytime TD vs TEN, referencing strong Mills-Schultz connection, 11 targets last week, red-zone usage, and TEN allowing TE production. Munaf plays Zach Ertz over 43.5 yards vs Miami (recent 46/54, Dolphins allowing 71 to TEs, WAS injuries, 5+ targets in 4 of 5). TD props: Lonte—Schultz. Munaf—Pat Freiermuth +230, Jonnu Smith +230, Ladd McConkey +155, and Aaron Jones +135. They plug the Pregame contests and Ready50 promo. Agreed best bet: Joe Flacco over 255.5 pass yards vs PIT; Steelers have been shredded by QBs (4 of prior 5 over 340 yards), Flacco threw 342 vs PIT in TNF matchup, comes off 470-yard game, has Chase/Higgins/Chase Brown, Bengals airing it out 45+ attempts often, extra rest helps shoulder. Close with hopes to sweep the board and return for Week 12. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell and his team dive into thrilling NFL betting insights for Week 11. They review recent betting successes, including wins on the Bengals and Rams. Fezzik offers his top picks, like Miami's first quarter, emphasizing the unique dynamics of international games. The discussion includes analysis of Green Bay's injury woes and market shifts affecting the Packers. They tackle the implications of coaching changes on game performance and dissect why Baltimore vs. Cleveland is set for a low total. It's a numbers-driven dialogue packed with actionable betting strategies!

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith cover 5 big games for college football Week 12. Best bets as always. College Football Week 12 Best Bets – Georgia-Texas, Bama-Oklahoma, and the Underdog Uprising Pregame.com’s Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith rolled into Week 12 of the College Football Podcast with confidence after a 2-1 week, spotlighting four massive matchups and a best-bet combo built on underdogs and unders. They opened with Notre Dame (-11.5) at Pittsburgh, where Warner questioned Pat Narduzzi’s “I don’t care if we lose 100-0” quote and its locker-room impact, while Lonte leaned to the over 56, citing Pitt’s seven of nine home overs and Notre Dame’s explosive two-headed backfield of Price and Love. Game two took them to Los Angeles, Iowa at USC (-6.5, 49.5 total), where Warner admitted last week’s Iowa under cashed again, and Lonte argued the Trojans’ power-run identity under Lincoln Riley is something the Hawkeyes haven’t faced, liking USC to cover as home dominance meets Iowa’s one-dimensional grind. The SEC spotlight then shifted to Alabama (-6) vs. Oklahoma, with both handicappers dissecting the Tide’s “B+ ceiling” — good enough to win but not blow teams out — while Lonte pounded the Sooners plus the points. He cited Brent Venables’ pressure schemes and Ty Simpson’s tendency to rush throws under duress, predicting Oklahoma’s dual-threat QB John Mateer could expose Bama’s struggles versus mobile passers. Warner agreed it’s a classic live-dog spot, noting Alabama’s lack of a killer instinct after the LSU survival. Finally, they previewed the heavyweight clash between Georgia (-6) and Texas, Arch Manning’s first true test after a breakout against Vanderbilt. Lonte liked the Longhorns to cover and possibly shock the Bulldogs, arguing Georgia’s defense has slipped and that Arch’s confidence plus Texas’ tackling could push the champs to the brink. Warner, donning his trademark burnt-orange shirt, echoed that Georgia’s once-feared front isn’t what it was, and if Texas’ defense dictates tempo, the upset window opens. They wrapped with promo code “BOMB50” for $50 off Pregame’s all-access football package, then delivered best bets: Lonte’s Michigan State +7.5 over a reeling Penn State (“How do you get off the mat after that loss?”) and Warner doubling down on his sweet spot with Iowa–USC under 49.5, trusting punts and field position more than fireworks. With Week 12’s playoff picture tightening, both hosts agreed it’s the moment when market edges meet motivation gaps — fading complacent favorites, riding disciplined dogs, and trusting totals over hype. Pregame’s data meets gut instinct, and in a sport built on chaos, that blend is how sharp bettors stay undefeated in November Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for week 10. Here’s a tight, 3200-character (with spaces) no-line-break summary of RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for Week 10: RJ Bell opens by recapping Sunday’s NFL action with Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers, starting with Carolina’s loss to New Orleans. Fezzik stayed with Carolina in Survivor and noted how the team keeps failing as a favorite. RJ highlighted the Saints’ dominant defense and improved offense with six yards per play, nearly 400 yards, and late red-zone chances. Mackenzie said metrics showed New Orleans should’ve won by 15, confirming their superiority. Fezzik described halftime betting adjustments and rare line movements, explaining how small second-half line shifts can mislead bettors. The crew discussed the Eagles-Packers matchup and how Carolina’s poor showing after beating Green Bay exposed Bryce Young’s struggles, agreeing he looks like a future backup QB. Shifting to Buffalo-Miami, RJ asked how the Bills lost by 17 despite being strong favorites. Fezzik said turnovers and Miami’s efficiency made the score misleading but fair. They discussed Kansas City’s standing and how market perception shapes betting lines. Lions-Washington followed, with Fezzik citing Dan Campbell’s record off a loss, the Lions’ 546-yard offensive explosion, and Washington’s inept defense. RJ and Fezzik analyzed how Detroit dominates as a big favorite, while Seattle eases off late in blowouts. Both agreed Seattle’s defense and DVOA rank were elite, with Mackenzie noting they were top-ranked historically. The trio reviewed Super Bowl odds, seeing Kansas City, Rams, Seahawks, and Lions in a cluster. They debated kick distances, field goal post dimensions, and quirky rule-change ideas like multi-tiered posts for extra points. They then analyzed Colts-Falcons, where Fezzik said Indy’s sacks masked dominance. RJ detailed Jonathan Taylor’s game-breaking runs and argued elite backs still matter. Discussion turned to Vrabel’s clock management before halftime, balancing touchdown odds with time control. RJ and Fezzik debated analytics-driven plays and the evolving tension between strategy and entertainment, warning about over-analysis diminishing football’s simplicity. Fezzik proposed rule fixes like stopping the clock on intentional penalties (“The Fezzik Rule”). Later, they covered Rams-49ers, crediting the Rams’ offense and questioning Trey Lance’s legacy versus Mac Jones. They discussed the Bears’ improvement, Caleb Williams’ mobility, and how young QBs must run to succeed early. Fezzik compared run-heavy QBs’ durability risks. RJ outlined the link between rushing ability, learning curves, and NFL survival. They reviewed misleading finals like the Jets game where bad offenses combined for 47 points, Cleveland’s poor road offense, and statistical anomalies between yardage, success rate, and results. Finally, they debated Texans-Jaguars’ late collapse, noting Houston’s comeback from 19 down, and closed on Colts-Falcons, where stats favored Indy despite a close overtime finish. RJ teased his next best bet streak continuing and wrapped with a promise to deliver Thursday’s betting pod picks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices