RJ Bell's Dream Preview

Munaf Manji and Lonte Smith talk NFL player props for Week 14. Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Props episode on RJ Bell’s Dream Preview. Munaf Manji hosts with Lonte Smith filling in. They recap Lions vs Cowboys and dive into props. QB props: Lonte takes Daniel Jones under 237 pass yards due to injury-limited mobility, quick throws, and Jacksonville’s improving pass defense. Munaf takes Sam Darnold over 234.5 vs Atlanta, citing recent Falcons regression and favorable dome conditions. RB props: Lonte plays De’Von Achane over 115.5 rush+rec yards; Jets struggle vs dual-threat backs and Achane has averaged huge volume and efficiency. Munaf plays Ashton Gentry over 23.5 receiving yards thanks to steady targets, O-line issues forcing checkdowns, and Denver’s strong run D pushing passes to RBs. WR/receiving props: Lonte takes Puka Nacua over 91.5 yards vs a weak Arizona secondary; high volume and breakout potential. Munaf takes Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. over 37.5 yards due to Sanders’ tendency to target him and recent consistency. TE props: Lonte plays Zach Ertz over 38 yards with Jayden Daniels returning, high usage, and Minnesota’s weakness vs TEs. Munaf takes Tyler Warren over 51.5 vs Jacksonville, who allow heavy TE production; Jones’ limited mobility should push short throws. Anytime TDs: Lonte picks Lamar Jackson at 3-1 in a divisional matchup where he expects a spike in rushing usage. Munaf picks Kyle Monungai (+190) for Chicago as the goal-line back, and Jaden Higgins (+370) for Houston due to defensive focus on Nico Collins. Best Bet: Bucky Irving over 86.5 rush+rec yards vs the Saints. He returned last week and immediately earned lead-back usage. Saints have a strong pass D but poor run D, giving up heavy rushing volume. Irving has prior success vs New Orleans and contributes in both phases; Baker’s injury and expected conservative game plan further increase opportunities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 14. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers break down NFL Week 14 betting, starting with RJ promoting a $50 seven-day all-access code WEEK50. Fezz’s best bet is Colts to score first vs Jacksonville because of coin-toss tendencies and expected offensive advantage in a high-total game, with discussion about teams choosing to receive, scripting, first-drive props, and coin-flip-based derivative betting. RJ and Fezz debate optimal strategy, adjustments, and first-quarter dynamics. RJ describes analyzing first-drive receiver usage, highlighting Puka Nacua and Colts TE Alie-Cox/Woods/Warren (context mixed) as early-drive targets. They discuss deferring vs receiving, coaching tendencies, and how underdogs may benefit from taking the ball. They move into Fezz’s prop focus shift and success. RJ and Fezz make a season-long sides/totals bet with RJ picking 30 games vs no-vig lines. Mackenzie reports RJ’s recent streak (8–1 best bets, 10–2 likes). Conversation shifts to MVP odds, Stafford vs Drake Maye, injury risk, schedule strength, market pricing, and how voters behave. They also discuss Burrow’s return, Bengals vs Bills line comparisons to past matchups, Cincinnati’s weak defense, Buffalo’s variance, McDermott’s seat, and playoff stakes. Mackenzie’s best bet is Bills –5.5 vs Bengals based on summer lines, defensive decline, and Buffalo urgency. RJ gives his best bet: Seahawks–Falcons under, citing Sam Darnold regression, Seattle protecting him, blitz issues vs Atlanta, scripted drives, Cousins limitations, motivation angles, and expectation of a 1995-style game. Fezz adds Chicago TE Loveland over yards due to increased targets and misleading prior stats. NBA segment: Thunder win projection, depth, injury savings, draft capital, and possible value on OKC to break the GS record; Knicks value to win the Atlantic. RJ provides more NFL picks: Packers team-total over, Bears team-total over based on Chicago offense improvement and defensive weakness; under in Chiefs–Texans due to Houston defensive surge, KC O-line issues, weather, and conservative game scripts; under first quarter Saints–Bucs because both offenses start slow and Tampa injuries limit explosiveness. They cover fire-and-ice weather mismatches, Fezz backing KC –3 vs Houston due to cold exposure issues, plus more rationale for the under. They discuss Pittsburgh–Baltimore history, third-quarter angle favoring the Ravens, Lamar’s struggles outside the numbers, and prop opportunities for TEs/RBs. They note Indy’s long losing streak at Jacksonville, Denver and Rams teaser options, Cleveland bad-weather unders, QB uncertainty for Washington and Chargers, and late-season bye effects. The show ends with general betting philosophy talk, variance, props, market holds, and closing banter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

CFB Championship Week + Best Bets In this championship-week episode of the College Football Podcast, Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith break down four major conference title games and how each may influence the College Football Playoff CFB Championship Week + Best Be… . They open with Texas Tech as a 13-point favorite over BYU, noting BYU’s coaching distraction and one-dimensional offense, while Texas Tech’s stronger trenches, multidimensional attack, and defensive advantages make them the superior version of BYU. Next, they turn to Georgia-Alabama, with Georgia laying 2.5. Lonte initially leaned heavily to Georgia but hesitated after Georgia’s sloppy showing vs Georgia Tech and Alabama’s uneven play at Auburn. He cites Kirby Smart’s elite in-game adjustments, Georgia’s ability to take over late, Alabama’s struggles with pressure and running QBs, and assigns only a slight home-field bump for Georgia in Atlanta. They then dive into the ACC chaos of Duke vs Virginia, with UVA favored by 3.5, and the wild possibility that a 7-5 Duke win could leave the ACC without a playoff representative, potentially opening two Group-of-5 bids. Lonte likes the over due to both teams’ volatility and Duke’s high variance, though Virginia’s multidimensional offense is a matchup advantage. Finally, they break down Indiana vs Ohio State, OSU -4.5 and total 48, a game both teams may treat cautiously since both are likely playoff-bound regardless of result. Lonte expects vanilla game plans, ball control, and elite OSU defense limiting explosiveness, making first-half and full-game unders appealing. Indiana has more emotional motivation and program history incentive, while OSU has the superior trenches and proven ability to hold plays back for the postseason. Griffin leans to Indiana plus the points given low urgency for OSU and Indiana’s higher motivational ceiling. Best bets: Lonte takes under 23.5 first half in Indiana-OSU, expecting a slow, conservative script; Griffin takes Indiana +4.5. They wrap with promo code CHAMP15 for pregame.com and tease postseason episodes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap from week 13. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 13, starting with Fezzik’s contest standings and shifting into a long debate about Lane Kiffin leaving Ole Miss for LSU, weighing money, reputation, player poaching, contract terms, and whether he should coach out the season, comparing it to corporate noncompetes and fan reactions; they discuss New Orleans, Baton Rouge, lifestyle differences, and how coaches and players evaluate opportunity versus loyalty. They transition to Survivor strategy, with Fezzik criticizing results-oriented praise for underdog picks and outlining math on contrarian value, distribution of picks on Philadelphia, Chicago, Baltimore and others, and how expected value—not outcome—should drive decisions. RJ pushes back that long-term projections people use may be overly certain and ignore variance in future point spreads. They then move game-by-game through the week: Bengals’ win over the Ravens despite six field goals and Baltimore’s four lost fumbles; Rams’ statistically dominant but turnover-ruined loss to Carolina; Arizona outplaying Tampa but losing on turnovers; Atlanta statistically beating the Jets despite a close score; Seattle crushing Minnesota while the Vikings’ offense posted historically awful EPA comparable to Denver’s COVID no-QB game; San Francisco beating Cleveland by more than the stats suggested due to turnovers; Jacksonville blowing out Tennessee in a game that should’ve been closer; Houston beating Indy in a fairly accurate-to-stats final; Chargers annihilating the Raiders; Miami edging New Orleans with a pivotal defensive two-point runback; Washington-Denver ending on a two-point try showing how new OT rules increase one-point finals. They discuss power ratings, playoff odds, NFC West value on San Francisco versus Seattle and the Rams, Denver’s “clutch” wins, Buffalo versus Kansas City, late-down success as a predictive metric, and coaching impacts. They close with prop-bet anecdotes, Steelers/Tomlin talk, kickoff-rule quirks, and a brief side discussion of media narratives and personal movie/TV habits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 13. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL Player Props for week 13. Munaf Manji and SleepyJ break down NFL Week 13 player props, starting with quarterbacks. Sleepy takes Josh Allen over 238.5 passing yards against a weak Steelers pass defense that gives up 258 per game, expecting Allen to bounce back after a rough Week 12 and potentially post a huge ceiling game. Munaf backs Patrick Mahomes over 266.5 passing yards versus Dallas, citing the Chiefs’ reliance on the pass, recent struggles establishing the run, returning receivers, and a vulnerable Cowboys pass defense; Mahomes has gone over this number in four of his last five. For running backs, Sleepy plays Patriots RB Travion Henderson over 68.5 rushing yards since he has taken control of the backfield and faces a poor Giants rush defense; Munaf agrees, noting Henderson’s strong recent snap shares, Stevenson’s fumbling issues, and the Giants allowing explosive production to multiple backs. At wide receiver, Sleepy targets Xavier Worthy over 38.5 receiving yards with KC likely to throw heavily and possibly seeing extra targets if Rice is limited; Munaf goes with Texans WR Nico Collins over 65.5, pointing to CJ Stroud’s return, Collins’ heavy target volume, and his massive history vs the Colts, with three straight games over 117 yards. For tight ends, they both attack the Bengals’ league-worst TE defense, with Sleepy taking Mark Andrews over 37.5 and also recommending Isaiah Likely, noting that last week Henry and Hooper posted huge yardage; Munaf matches on Andrews and notes the Bengals allow 87 TE yards per game. For anytime TDs, Sleepy takes Saints RB Davon Neal at +290 with Kamara likely out and Neal seeing meaningful usage; Munaf mentions liking Xavier Worthy and CeeDee Lamb, plus chalkier options Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Their shared best bet is Saquon Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards vs the Bears, expecting Philadelphia to “reset” by leaning on the run after an embarrassing loss to Dallas; the Bears allow 156 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, and Barkley can clear this with volume or a single explosive run. They close by promoting a Pregame promo code, wishing listeners a happy Thanksgiving, and stressing taking time with family before resuming the late-season grind. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk college football betting for week 14. Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open with intensity after motivational commands highlight football’s core themes of physicality, hustle, and leaving no doubt. Warner introduces the final-weekend discussion focused on four major games and best bets, noting unstable internet before asking Smith for last-week takeaways. Smith explains their split best bets, Michigan pulling away from Maryland, Georgia Tech’s momentum fading, and Missouri–Oklahoma unfolding exactly as handicapped. With top teams unchanged and coaching moves beginning, he sees minimal surprises. Warner commits to unders and transitions to Texas vs Texas A&M, asking whether Texas can reach the playoff. Smith says Texas needs significant help due to ranking position. Warner praises Texas’s rivalry history but questions A&M’s legitimacy; Smith sees A&M as strong but just below true title contenders, citing defense, run game, receivers, and inconsistent QB play while noting a major road win. Discussion shifts to the betting line: A&M -2. Smith expects the line to stay between -2 and -2.5, noting Sarkisian’s 2–8 ATS record as a dog and emphasizing Texas’s need to run with Wisner and Baxter while exploiting A&M’s vulnerable secondary. Warner doubts Texas’s offensive line but finds it hard to resist Texas as a home dog. They move to Auburn vs Alabama, where Alabama is -6. Smith stresses Alabama must win but has struggled historically in such spots. He highlights Auburn QB Deuce Knight’s 239 passing yards, 162 rushing yards, and six touchdowns versus Mercer while cautioning about competition level. Alabama’s 8–3 ATS record, rivalry history, and Auburn’s weak ATS numbers shape his expectation of a 7–10 point Alabama win. Warner questions why the line isn’t higher; Smith cites rivalry volatility and uncertainty surrounding Knight. Warner then transitions to Ohio State vs Michigan, with Ohio State -10. Smith outlines playoff implications: Ohio State is effectively secure; Michigan must win. He details Ohio State injuries, including Jeremiah Smith likely under 50 percent, and emphasizes Michigan’s physicality, home field, and improved health at running back. Michigan, he argues, can stay within the number by forcing Ohio State to run. Warner agrees the line feels inflated and sees classic value in a motivated home underdog. Next is Vanderbilt vs Tennessee, with Vandy +2.5. Smith calls it one of Vanderbilt’s biggest games ever, noting no bad losses, quality wins, Tennessee’s inconsistency, and Diego Pavia’s strong recent play. Tennessee’s vulnerable secondary and potential for explosive scoring lead him to prefer the over 66 and to lean Tennessee if betting but to wait on the line movement. Warner questions whether Vanderbilt’s performance is inflating perception; Smith argues the line reflects Tennessee’s flaws more than Vanderbilt’s rise. For best bets, Smith selects Washington as a home dog due to Oregon’s injuries and Washington’s balanced offense and defensive pressure, projecting a close score. Warner takes Michigan +10 for value, motivation, and home-field strength, closing the show with humor and gratitude. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for Week 12. The guys also preview Thanksgiving Day football games. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers break down the NFL Week 12 results, focusing on phony finals, line moves, quarterback value, and upcoming Thanksgiving games. They note several games where the winner failed to cover despite controlling yards and efficiency, including the Patriots over the Bengals, where New England dominated yards per play but failed in multiple goal-line stands. They discuss the evolving market perception of the Patriots, schedule strength adjustments, and how priors reduce by late season. They review the Burrow injury line movement and how the market prices uncertainty, concluding the Bengals’ performance showed the impact of disappointment when a QB ruled “possible” ultimately sits. They examine Seattle–Tennessee, emphasizing how big favorites coast late and how punt-return TDs distort stats, along with Cleveland–Las Vegas, highlighting Chip Kelly’s firing and expected offensive regression under new coordinator Greg Olson. They debate Sanders’ surprisingly explosive plays for the Browns and how film people upgraded him despite Fezzik’s skepticism. They analyze defensive player of the year odds, Miles Garrett’s sack trajectory, and how props handle fractional sacks. Detroit–Giants and Jacksonville–Cardinals illustrate end-game analytics, field-goal vs fourth-down decisions, and how many outcomes hinge on coaches avoiding going up six. They revisit Dallas–Philly, discussing the Eagles’ tendency toward half-game lulls, Dallas’ big-play advantage, and midseason defense regression. They consider Atlanta’s underrated strength after beating New Orleans and how overreactions to one bad QB performance distort markets. They break down Minnesota’s QB crisis, O’Connell’s ability to scheme around backups, and the incoming third-stringer Brosmer, speculating he may be an upgrade over McCarthy. They highlight the Rams’ surge behind Stafford’s MVP-level play, improved running game, and elite pass rush, contrasting with Tampa’s limitations. Late games include Baltimore–Cincinnati with Burrow returning on a short week but missing Higgins, leading to under considerations. Thanksgiving picks: Fezzik’s best bet is Green Bay–Detroit under due to slow pace, strong defenses, and divisional familiarity; RJ’s best bet is Dallas +3.5 vs Kansas City, citing the brutal Sunday-to-Thursday overtime trend (6–25 ATS) for road teams and KC’s emotional drain after a long OT game; they also like Cincinnati team-total under 21.5. They close by warning listeners not to overbet Thanksgiving and teasing more picks on Wednesday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joining the conversation is Steve Fezzik, a two-time Super Contest Champion and expert in NFL betting analysis. He argues for the Raiders team total over 19.5, highlighting Cleveland's poor defense and rookie QB turnover risk. Fezzik also supports the Colts to score first against the Chiefs, while RJ Bell makes a compelling case for the Colts at +3.5. Mackenzie Rivers pushes for the Lions at -10 over the Giants, backed by strong records and favorable matchups. The trio dives into market movements, game trends, and highlights key prop bets for Week 12.

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 13. Here is a tight, single-paragraph, no-line-break summary under 3400 characters, covering the full uploaded podcast transcript: Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith open with a hype locker-room clip before breaking down Week 13 CFB betting. Griffin laments Texas’ collapse against Georgia, including the perfectly executed onside kick that swung momentum and effectively ended Texas’ playoff hopes. Lonte says Texas has no realistic path even if they beat A&M, with too many 10-2 teams in the way. They move to Oklahoma vs Missouri, noting OU was badly outgained by Alabama but won through turnovers, and both hosts prefer the under given OU’s defensive strength and offensive inconsistency with Mateer. Missouri’s run-heavy approach is unlikely to succeed against OU’s stacked boxes. They then discuss USC at Oregon, surprised the line jumped to Oregon -10. Lonte argues USC is undervalued, their offense can score even against elite defenses, and Oregon has looked weaker due to injuries; he expects a shootout and likes USC plus the points and the over. Griffin questions why the market inflates Oregon and agrees USC is live. Next is Pitt at Georgia Tech, a key ACC playoff-implication game; Lonte says Pitt likely overlooked Notre Dame last week but should be focused here, expects volatility from Pitt QB Veilleux, likes the over and thinks Pitt wins outright. Griffin notes GT’s small home-field edge and the market’s lukewarm respect for them. They then cover BYU at Cincinnati, with BYU controlling its Big 12 destiny while Cincinnati’s season is effectively over. Lonte cites BYU’s resilience and trench strength, saying they can limit Cincinnati’s powerful run game and win a close one. Griffin wonders why the market keeps undervaluing BYU despite consistent results. They promote a Pregame.com discount code, then deliver best bets: Lonte takes Maryland +14 vs Michigan, arguing Michigan hasn’t justified big spreads, struggles on the road, and Maryland is motivated with solid QB play. Griffin’s best bet is Missouri–Oklahoma under 42, citing OU’s offensive troubles, an early start, and Missouri’s limited explosiveness, expecting a defensive grind. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices