RJ Bell's Dream Preview

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 5. [00:00 | Speaker 3] The discussion begins with intensity: “Offense, play fast. Defense, swarm. Swarm and tackle.” The repeated demand to “out-block, out-tackle, out-hit, out-hustle” and “Leave no doubt tonight!” frames a theme of urgency and dominance. [00:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces the Week 5 show, joking about Vanderbilt’s surprising success and admitting their bets went 0-2 after a 2-0 streak, showing how volatile the season can be. [02:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte reflects on UConn: “The UConn play was the wrong side,” noting they had chances but “couldn’t capitalize and couldn’t stop Kelly on the run.” He highlights Vanderbilt scoring 72, their most since 1918, underscoring how explosive games can get. [05:30 | Griffin Warner] Alabama vs Georgia comes up with Alabama +3 and total 52. [06:15 | Lonte Smith] Lonte stresses “My number is exactly three,” pointing to both teams’ weak pass rush. Georgia ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per pass and has just three sacks, while Alabama has only 31 pressures. He predicts “an explosion of big plays” and loves the over 52.5, leaning slightly to Georgia at home. [12:40 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks about shifts in program power. [13:20 | Lonte Smith] Lonte explains, “Bama is second tier to what Georgia is doing,” crediting Kirby Smart’s continuity and NFL pipeline, while contrasting Saban’s defensive style with DeBoer’s offensive focus. [15:00 | Griffin Warner] Next is LSU at Ole Miss, with Ole Miss -1.5 and total 54.5. [15:45 | Lonte Smith] Lonte breaks down the quarterback dilemma: Trinidad Chambliss has been “nothing short of sensational,” while Austin Simmons is turnover-prone. LSU can exploit Ole Miss’s weakness, “outside the top 115 in rush success rate.” He says, “The over is good regardless of quarterback.” [21:20 | Griffin Warner] Moving to Ohio State at Washington, Griffin notes the line moved from -12.5 to -8.5. [22:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte cites, “Five and nine straight up for Power Four quarterbacks making their first road start.” Washington has a 21-game home win streak, one of the best in the nation. He suggests betting Washington early before Ohio State’s depth shows, expecting an eventual Buckeye win by eight or nine points. [28:15 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks why bettors move against “the number one program.” [28:40 | Lonte Smith] Lonte answers that sharps love home dogs, adding Washington’s momentum, dual-threat QB De’Mon Williams, and cross-country travel factors make this a prime spot. [31:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces Oregon at Penn State, Oregon +3.5. [31:30 | Lonte Smith] Lonte says, “I love Penn State in this spot.” He criticizes Drew Aller, “outside the top 100 in QBR,” and weak receivers, but expects Penn State’s elite defense in a whiteout to overwhelm Oregon despite Dante Moore’s strong play. He predicts a 9-10 point Penn State win. [37:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin highlights the impact of a night game at Happy Valley and travel challenges. [38:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte agrees, noting Penn State’s balance and defensive edge. [39:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin offers promo code “Blitz20.” [41:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte’s best bet is Illinois +7 vs USC, citing USC’s struggles traveling east and poor defense: “124th in rush success rate allowed.” With RB Aiden Lowry returning and QB Luke Altmyer’s legs, Illinois can bounce back. [44:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin agrees on the full touchdown value. His best bet is over 54.5 in LSU vs Ole Miss, banking on scoring regardless of quarterback uncertainty. [46:00 | Closing] Both hosts thank listeners, preview October matchups, and hope to rebound with winners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for week 3. RJ Bell (0:06–0:28) opened the Week 3 recap with Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers, pointing straight to the Rams’ late collapse. Steve Fezzik (0:28–0:37) vented, “Shitty RJ, shitty from the Rams … in the goddamn fucked up end game,” showing how devastating the ending was. RJ Bell (0:37–1:20) argued the odds of the result were “astronomical,” rejecting the idea it was routine. Steve Fezzik (1:20–2:29) explained the math: only a 0.3% chance of a blocked kick returned for a touchdown, calling it a once-in-hundreds scenario. RJ Bell (2:50–4:14) reminded listeners the Rams had a 99% chance to cover for most of the second half and 99.9% on the final snap. RJ Bell (4:57–5:56) noted only two teams lost with over 50% average win probability: the Rams at 63% and Packers at 66.2%. Mackenzie Rivers (8:53–8:57) confirmed the Rams’ average win chance was still just 59.5%, proof of how sudden the collapse was. RJ Bell (10:15–10:57) highlighted the Rams at 83% to win before the blocked kick. Steve Fezzik (31:14–31:43) still upgraded the Rams by one point, pointing to their +0.8 yards per play edge. RJ Bell (32:32–35:56) contrasted Philadelphia’s negative point differential with the Rams’ +3.8 average, moving the Rams ahead in power ratings. RJ Bell (39:23–42:52) introduced explosive play data: Rams –3, Eagles +3, Packers led at +8 while Titans and Steelers trailed at –7, showing the correlation to wins. Fezzik (42:52–43:39) then analyzed Green Bay’s loss, with RJ Bell (43:39–45:31) stressing the Packers allow 8.2 fewer points per game than average, best in the league. Turning to Pittsburgh, Fezzik (49:09–49:33) said their 21–14 win masked problems, as they were outgained by 160 yards but survived on a +4 turnover margin. RJ Bell (50:07–50:28) defended Mike Tomlin, saying he simply wins close games, backed by a 67% average win probability. Fezzik (55:44–55:56) blamed Houston’s turnovers in their loss to Jacksonville, while RJ Bell (55:56–56:10) admired the Texans’ effort despite 0–3. Fezzik (1:05:48–1:05:53) downgraded Atlanta –1.5 after a 30–0 loss to Carolina, noting Carolina had only 224 yards but capitalized on Atlanta’s failure to reach the red zone. Seattle’s 38–13 rout of New Orleans was credited to special teams, with Fezzik (1:07:04–1:07:10) saying much came from flukes. RJ Bell (1:09:29–1:09:56) flagged Dallas’ defensive weakness after a 34–17 loss to Chicago, now allowing 6.5 more points than average, while the Bears controlled the game with 81.5% win probability. Fezzik (1:10:25–1:10:52) called the Chargers’ three-point win over Denver “phony,” noting a 29–9 first down edge. Fezzik (1:16:18–1:16:25) lamented Marvin Harrison Jr.’s drop in Arizona’s narrow loss to San Francisco, though the Niners still posted +1.6 yards per play. RJ Bell (1:21:28–1:21:39) praised Washington’s backup-led win over Las Vegas with 7.5 yards per play and 82.6% win probability, while Fezzik (1:20:09–1:20:45) criticized the Raiders’ poor defense. RJ Bell (1:25:10–1:26:54) listed struggling teams: Cincinnati (–8.5), Miami (–8), Saints (–12.5), Raiders (–5.2), Jets (–7), Titans (–6.8). He also tagged over teams like Dallas (+8.9) and Chicago (+6.75) versus under teams like Green Bay (–8) and Cleveland (–7). Finally, RJ Bell (1:28:12–1:28:31) previewed Packers vs. Cowboys as the next big game, with the line moving from Green Bay –2.5 to –7 after CeeDee Lamb’s injury. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL player props for Week 3. NFL Player Props – Week 3 [Opening Segment] (timestamps vary by section) The discussion centers on betting angles for Week 3 player props, with analysts pointing out favorable matchups and statistical trends. Direct quotes reveal a focus on efficiency and expected production. For example: “You have to look at how many times he’s being targeted in the red zone, that’s where the value comes in.” This emphasizes the importance of opportunity over pure yardage totals when evaluating props. [Quarterbacks] Attention is given to pass attempts and touchdowns. One speaker highlights: “Daniel Jones is averaging nearly 35 pass attempts per game, but the efficiency is what’s holding him back.” This implies that volume alone does not guarantee fantasy or betting success—completion rates and game scripts matter. [Running Backs] Breece Hall is scrutinized for underwhelming production despite decent yards-per-carry averages. “He’s sitting at 4.7 per carry, but without consistent usage, you can’t back the over.” This underscores the risk of betting on backs whose offensive systems don’t prioritize them. Meanwhile, Jordan Mason is framed as an emerging value: “He’s looked better than Aaron Jones on limited touches, averaging 4.1 yards per carry.” This points to his growing role in the Vikings’ backfield. [Wide Receivers & Tight Ends] The analysts debate Kyle Pitts versus Cade Otten, noting Pitts’ “11 receptions on 13 targets, 96 yards” compared with Otten’s potential boost due to Buccaneers’ injuries. The commentary suggests Pitts remains a frustrating hold while Otten could be a buy-low play. For receivers, Keenan Allen is praised for “17 targets and two touchdowns already”, reinforcing his role as Justin Herbert’s primary option. [Team-Level Context] Defenses are tied into betting strategy. The Buccaneers’ run-stopping prowess—“allowing just 105 rushing yards total through two games”—is highlighted as a reason to fade certain running backs. Conversely, the Panthers’ weak rush defense bolsters confidence in Atlanta’s ground-heavy attack led by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, the hosts dive into NFL Week 3 betting with excitement. They highlight a fantastic bulk dollars offer, urging bettors to maximize their bankroll. Fezz shares his impressive 43-unit profit in college football, while the team discusses a 0-2 underdog trend and official picks like the Saints +7.5. They analyze advanced metrics, the rise of fourth-down aggression, and key matchups, including the intriguing Falcons vs. Panthers game. With live betting strategies and insights on player statuses, this discussion is a must-listen for bettors!

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 4. Early Reflections (0:32 – 4:26) Griffin celebrated the “first 2-0 of the season.” Lonte added, “Great weekend for us going 2-0… all the big games delivered.” Griffin recalled missing Tennessee-Georgia moments at an Arkansas watch party, while Lonte defended his Southern Miss pick, saying they “dominated this game” over App State. Market Volatility (4:27 – 6:40) Griffin called college line swings “chaos compared to the NFL or MLB.” Lonte noted CLV matters only “55% on three-plus moves.” Utah vs. Texas Tech (6:40 – 11:07) Utah’s “60% rush success rate” and Morton’s road issues (“80 grade at home, under 60 away”) led Lonte to lean Utah/under, projecting “23-20.” Griffin agreed: Utah -3. Michigan vs. Nebraska (11:43 – 14:33) Underwood’s 114 yards, 2 TDs boost Michigan vs. Nebraska’s weak run defense (“outside top 120 EPA”). Lonte leaned Huskers as home dogs; Griffin backed that angle. Auburn vs. Oklahoma (16:09 – 19:13) Auburn’s defense “first in rush success rate allowed.” Lonte called for “23-20 or 20-17,” taking Auburn +6.5 and under. Griffin agreed, eyeing +7. Illinois vs. Indiana (20:21 – 25:02) Illinois’ veteran team and Duke road win contrasted with Indiana QB Mendoza, who “struggles against blitz and man coverage.” Lonte liked Illinois +4.5/over. Best Bets (26:03 – 31:12) Lonte: UConn -21 (UConn “top 15 in success rate” vs. Ball State’s defense “outside top 110”). Griffin: Utah -3 (trust in home edge, QB splits). Takeaway Defense, weak schedules, and market inefficiencies drove every angle. Player stats (Underwood’s rushing, UConn’s efficiency) and team metrics (Auburn’s #1 defense) shaped sharp Week 4 picks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers dive back into NFL week 2. [Rj Bell] (0:06 - 0:20) opens the Monday recap by admitting he dislikes working before noon but stresses flexibility. [Steve Fezzik] (0:20 - 0:31) jokes about birthdays and health, while RJ underscores his credibility: “When you’ve got over 10 years of grinding, then if you say you’ve got something, you’ve got something.” Fezzik explains his viewing method with Red Zone plus one focus game: “That red zone is the nuts…you never miss out on a key highlight.” Yet he concedes, “You don’t get to see what’s going on in midfield,” showing how context can be lost in highlight coverage. [Steve Fezzik] (5:06 - 5:48) highlights Eagles vs Chiefs, calling it a “phony final.” Philadelphia won 20–17, but “Kansas City won the stats and lost the game.” The Chiefs outgained the Eagles by 80 yards and in yards per play. Travis Kelce dropped a would-be touchdown, intercepted for a seven-point swing. Kelce’s 4 catches for 61 yards reflected diminished speed. Mahomes missed throws but added 7 carries for 66 rushing yards, effort that risks injury. RJ notes murmurs that “Mahomes isn’t what he used to be.” [Steve Fezzik] (11:26 - 12:40) critiques the Eagles’ offense. Jalen Hurts posted 9 carries for 15 yards, largely short pushes. DeVonta Smith had 4 for 53, A.J. Brown just 5 for 27. Saquon Barkley logged 22 carries for 88 yards. RJ observes: “The Eagles win a lot of games maybe they shouldn’t.” [Steve Fezzik] (16:42 - 17:17) shifts to Giants vs Cowboys. Despite losing, “The Giants, almost two yards per play better than Dallas.” Dallas survived thanks to Brandon Aubrey’s 64-yard field goal. Survivor strategy discussion follows: reducing win probability from 71% to 60% shifts odds from 1-in-1000 to 1-in-27,000, showing contrarian picks fail mathematically. Rookie back Scatabow impressed with hustle, recovering a fumble with relentless effort. [Steve Fezzik] (35:56 - 36:41) reviews Patriots vs Dolphins. Miami had superior stats but lost 33–27 after two failed fourth downs and a turnover. Both teams scored kickoff return TDs. RJ sums it up: “Non-line of scrimmage factors really point positively towards the Patriots.” A near touchdown was overturned when the runner stepped out. [Steve Fezzik] (39:21 - 40:41) turns to Bengals vs Jaguars. After Burrow’s injury, Jake Browning kept Cincinnati alive. Jacksonville dropped critical passes and failed late. Market reaction downgraded the Bengals by about 4.5 points without Burrow, underlining his value. [Steve Fezzik] (52:58 - 54:27) explains Cardinals vs Panthers. Arizona built a 24-point lead before prevent defense allowed Carolina two late touchdowns and an onside recovery. “You can have a team that kills the other team. And then at the end, the stats look kind of even.” A defensive score and failed fourth down emphasized Arizona’s control despite misleading totals. [Steve Fezzik] (58:09 - 59:53) recounts Colts vs Broncos. Indianapolis outgained Denver by 150 yards but nearly lost after settling for a 60-yard missed field goal. A penalty saved them. RJ highlights poor coaching decisions. [Steve Fezzik] (1:05:23 - 1:06:33) describes Steelers vs Seahawks. A kickoff touched Pittsburgh’s returner, Seattle recovered for a touchdown. Despite being outgained, Pittsburgh won, continuing its pattern of overachieving metrics. [Steve Fezzik] (1:10:08 - 1:10:26) lists his top five teams: Baltimore, Buffalo, Green Bay, Kansas City, Philadelphia, with Detroit close behind. [Steve Fezzik] (1:11:03 - 1:11:28) notes Detroit crushed Chicago 52–21, averaging 8.8 yards per play. RJ calls it as dominant as the score. Caleb Williams disappointed, with Fezzik saying he’d prefer “the number ten pick” next year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL Week 2 Player Props: Expert Picks and Best Bet Best Bet Sleepy J (30:04 – 31:55): Declares Brees Hall over 58.5 rushing yards. “He looks like a top five running back in the league right now,” praising his burst after injury. Munaf (31:55 – 34:08): Backs it with stats: 19 carries, 107 yards, 5.6 per attempt. He notes Fields’ rushing threat reduces defensive pressure on Hall. Closing Thoughts Sleepy suggests the game total of 46.5 could go over if the Jets offense continues to shine. Munaf agrees this matchup will reveal whether New York’s Week 1 surge was real or Pittsburgh’s defense was weak. Both close by promoting Pregame.com’s newsletter and coupon code PROP20 for 20% off. Final Props Recap QBs: Kyler Murray under 216.5; Trevor Lawrence over 239.5. RBs: Travion Henderson over 54.5; James Conner over 64.5. WRs: Garrett Wilson over 59.5; CeeDee Lamb over 78.5. TEs: Juwan Johnson over 3.5; Brenton Strange over 33.5. Best Bet: Brees Hall over 58.5 rushing yards. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The hosts dive deep into NFL betting strategies for Week 2, analyzing thrilling matchups like the Raiders vs. Patriots. They discuss team dynamics, focusing on the impact of injuries on performance, particularly for San Francisco. Expect insightful quarterback comparisons, especially between the Saints and Panthers. The conversation also highlights betting strategies tied to early season performances and evolving strategies from notable figures in the betting world. Tune in for expert tips on maximizing your betting success this NFL season!

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for week 3. Game Previews Georgia at Tennessee (6:05 – 12:39) Line: Georgia -3.5 (down from -7.5). Smith: “I don’t really trust Gunner Stockton… it’ll be a run heavy approach on both sides.” Stat: Georgia top 10 in rush success rate. First-time road starters are 3-10 straight up, 3-9-1 ATS. Lean: Under 49.5, with Tennessee backers getting value if they grabbed +7. Clemson at Georgia Tech (13:33 – 15:59) Line fell from -9 to -3.5. Smith: “This is a good buy low spot for Clemson.” Concern over GT QB Haynes King’s health and their 91st-ranked pass success rate. Clemson’s defense and potential WR return could tilt the matchup. Florida at LSU (17:24 – 23:12) Line: LSU -7, total 48.5. Florida’s discipline issues showed with 11 penalties for 101 yards. Smith: “Under would be the only way I would look.” LSU’s defense is improving, while QB Lagway’s success depends on teammates cleaning up mistakes. Texas A&M at Notre Dame (23:13 – 30:33) Line: Notre Dame -7, total 49.5. Smith stresses urgency: “This is a must win for Notre Dame.” Player stat: Jeremiah Love had 14 touches for 78 yards; Smith insists he must see 20+ carries. A&M ranks outside top 100 in 3rd/4th down success rate. Lean: Notre Dame under 7 and under the total. Best Bets (31:47 – 35:15) Lonte Smith: Southern Miss +2.5. “I think Southern Miss wins this game outright.” He cites App State’s struggles against weak opponents and the Marshall-to-Southern Miss coaching/player pipeline. Griffin Warner: Tennessee +3.5. “It’s great to be a Tennessee Vol.” He backs the Knoxville home-field edge against Georgia. Takeaway The discussion highlights Florida’s lack of discipline, the volatility of young QBs like Stockton, and Notre Dame’s must-win spot. The week closes with confidence in two home underdogs—Southern Miss and Tennessee—as the sharpest plays. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Week 1 recap. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices