Horns of a Dilemma

A year ago, as Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine was proving not to be the quick and easy victory Vladimir Putin had expected, some observers speculated that the bungled decision to invade his neighbor could be Putin's undoing.  The idea of a Russian state without Putin raised alluring prospects of reform. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, American University Professor Joseph Torigian discusses the dynamics of authoritarian succession. His book, Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China After Stalin and Mao, contradicts conventional scholarship. While the most significant autocratic power transitions of the 20th Century did result in more reform-minded leaders in the Soviet Union and China, Torigian argues that Nikita Kruschev and Deng Xiaoping earned their leadership positions the old-fashioned way: by intrigue, politicking, and making promises to gain the support of the military and security services. Torigian's talk is both a fascinating history, and an important caution in setting expectations for leadership transition in Russia and China, whenever and however it may occur. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we listen to a discussion between Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. Brands and Inboden discuss a book written by Brands and Michael Beckley, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China. While many pundits project conflict between the United States and China (most recently, Air Force General Michael Minihan), Brands’ prognosis stands out for its thoughtfulness and for its recognition that armed conflict between these two superpowers would be militarily and financially disastrous for the world. By focusing on the factors that seem to aggravate risk over the next several years, Brands provides a compelling description of how the United States might safely navigate this perilous period in U.S.-Sino competition. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.

On this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma Clement Center Senior National Security Fellow Mark Pomar, who helped to oversee the Russian language broadcasts of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty during the Cold War, discusses his book, Cold War Radio: The Russian Broadcasts of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Pomar is joined by Professor Kiril Avramov in a great discussion of both how the Russian language broadcasts helped to advance American interests, and how information figures in contemporary conflicts, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.

Many great figures in American history are full of contradictions. Thomas Jefferson wrote stirringly about liberty while owning human beings as property. Woodrow Wilson was both the idealistic author of the 14 Points, and a racist who re-segregated the federal work force. But few figures in American history embody as many contradictions as the two featured in this week's Horns of a Dilemma: Lyndon Johnson, and J. Edgar Hoover. Yale Professor Beverly Gage discusses her new biography of Hoover, G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century. Beause she is speaking at the LBJ library, she focuses particularly on the relationship between Hoover and Johnson. Her talk is humorous, informative, and helps to highlight the way in which Hoover played a critical role in both securing and undermining many of the civil liberties that define contemporary American society.  

This week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma features author and public intellectual Walter Russell Mead speaking about his book, The Arc of a Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People. As Mead discusses, the trope that American foreign policy toward Israel can be explained by the outsized influence of Jewish people in American government is common, not only among fringe thinkers and conspiracy theorists, but even among audiences that otherwise display considerable sophistication. Seeking to dispel this myth, Mead set out in this book to articulate what does explain American foreign policy toward Israel. The result is a fascinating glimpse into American idealism and shifts in American domestic politics. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.

On the second anniversary of the January 6 insurrection, Horns of a Dilemma features a talk by University of Texas, Austin Professor Jeremi Suri about his new book, Civil War by Other Means: America's Long and Unfinished Fight for Democracy. In seeking to understand the events of January 6, 2021, Suri looks to the American Civil War and the period of reconstruction that followed. He finds that, far from being unprecedented, the type of political violence seen at the U.S. Capitol two years ago has deep roots in America's past.  Suri's talk is both sobering and hopeful. Although Suri emphasizes some of the most troubling parts of American history, which are often ignored in history texts, he does so in the firm belief that deeper knowledge and better understanding of the roots of today's political violence and  intimidation can enable Americans to address the underlying causes, and help to make American society stronger and more just.  This talk was given in November 2021 at the University of Texas, Austin.

Many stories of the Battle of Midway highlight the role of cryptography in breaking Japanese codes and the herculean effort to repair USS Yorktown after the battle of the Coral Sea so that she could participate in the battle. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, author Steven McGregor highlights a less-known but equally important aspect: the SBD Dauntless dive bomber. Dive bombing was a crucial technology during World War II that pushed the bounds of aerodynamics by requiring an aircraft that could maintain a near-vertical dive and withstand the tremendous forces of pulling out, all while carrying bombs weighing up to 1,000 pounds.  McGregor tells the story through the pivotal role played by three German-Americans: Chester Nimitz, commander of the Pacific Fleet; Ed Heineman, the designer of the Dauntless; and Norman "Dusty" Kleiss, the pilot whose bombs delivered the fatal blow to the Japanese carrier IJS Kaga. This is a great discussion of a battle that shaped the course of World War II in the Pacific and cemented the importance of the aircraft carrier in American seapower.

The deployment of the Soviet SS-20 missile system in the 1970s and 1980s, and U.S. plans to deploy the Pershing II and Ground Launched Cruise Missile in response, spurred a crisis within NATO over U.S. nuclear deterrence in Europe. Susan Colbourn, associate director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, tells the story of this period in her new book, Euromissiles: The Nuclear Weapons that Nearly Destroyed NATO.  In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Colbourn describes how concerns over intermediate range nuclear missiles in Europe involved much more than just questions of deterrence and superpower competition. As she relates the difficult give-and-take between superpowers and among allies, she highlights the way in which domestic politics, the international anti-nuclear movement, alliance burden sharing, and the structure of political, economic, and military power in Europe all played pivotal roles. This story is an intriguing chapter in NATO's history that is not widely understood and provides important context as Europe begins to re-arm response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. This event was held at the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin.

Nathan Law first came to international prominence as a student leader of the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong in 2014.  In the years that followed, he was elected as the youngest parliamentarian in Hong Kong's history, debarred from holding office, convicted for his activities in leading student protests, jailed, released, and exiled--all before his 30th birthday. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Law joins Professor Sheena Greitens, director of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas, Austin, to discuss his book Freedom: How We Lose It and How We Fight Back.  This is a powerful discussion that quietly showcases the bravery, commitment, and patriotism of a young man fighting for his city and fellow citizens.  

In this week's epsidode of Horns of a Dilemma, Sheena Greitens, head of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas, Austin, joins author Nury Turkel to discuss Turkel's book, No Escape: The True Story of China's Genocide of the Uyghurs. Turkel, who was born in a re-education camp during China's culturual revolution, uses his own experiences, as well as interviews with survivors of the camps in western China to tell the story of China's campaign against the Uyghur people. The picture that emerges in his conversation with Greitens is urgent, powerful, and chilling.  This event was recorded at the University of Texas, Austin, and was co-sponsored by the Clements Center and the Bech-Loughlin First Amendment Center.