Horns of a Dilemma

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Marine Corps Gen. (Ret) Robert Neller joins University of Texas, Austin Professor Paul Pope to discuss the recent force structure and doctrine changes in the Marine Corps, intended to create a force ready to fight a war with China. Neller begins with a basic overview of the contemporary security environment, and traces the requirements that emerge all the way through hard choices about the composition, training, and mission of the Marine Corps. This is a rare, insightful look into the process of adapting a military service for changing requirements from someone who once led that service. While it is illuminating for understanding the current debate surrounding Marine Corps expeditionary advanced base operations, the principles and choices Neller lays out provide insight into the challenges of strategic defense planning for the entire U.S. military. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and was co-hosted by the University's Alexander Hamilton Society.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, addresses the challenging questions of how to allocate defense spending to meet American strategic interests around the globe. Eaglen discusses the relationship between strategy and budget, as well as how "reality always gets a vote" and often results in a need to spend money in areas that were not projected to be strategic priorities. Eaglen engages in a broad-ranging question and answer session with members of the audience which provides a comprehensive overview of the relationship between strategy, politics, defense spending, and capabilities on the ground for the United States and its allies. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Napoleon once said that leaders are "dealers in hope." While such a label might seem to fit Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky, it fits more awkwardly on Russian President Vladimir Putin. How has the leadership of these two men shaped the onset and current progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Would the invasion have happened at all, or if had happened would it have progressed differently under different leadership? These are the fundamental questions addressed in this week's Horns of a Dilemma. Texas National Security Review Executive Editor Doyle Hodges is joined by Brown University Professor (and member of the TNSR Editorial Board) Rose McDermott to discuss political psychology, leadership, and the war in Ukraine.  This discussion ranges from the origins, strengths, and limits of political psychology to analysis of the leaders involved in the conflict to literary criticism of two great Russian novels.  Professor McDermott is also a contributor to a new book from Cornell University Press, The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age

In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Daniel Runde of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, speaks about his new book, The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power.  Liberals and conservatives are frequently divided over foreign policy preferences, with conservatives favoring hard power, such as military might, and liberals emphasizing soft power elements, such as leadership in international organizations. Runde approaches foreign policy from a conservative perspective but concludes that competition between the United States and rivals like Russia or China is more likely to play out in the arena of soft power than in hard power confrontations. Runde therefore argues that without leadership in soft power, the United States is likely to find itself on the losing side in great power competition. This is a novel and compelling argument about the importance of American leadership. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

The turnover between U.S. presidential administrations can be a time of uncertainty and vulnerability. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from former National Security Advisor Stephen J. Hadley, who discusses the forthcoming volume, Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama. This book, a collection of transition memoranda prepared by National Security Council staffers, reflections by the principals, and analysis by scholars, is an unprecedented glimpse into the transition process, as well as an early comprehensive history of the George W. Bush administration’s foreign policy. Hadley discusses the book and the transition process with Clements Center Executive Director Will Inboden, who worked for Hadley at the time on the National Security Council, and who offers his own insights and recollections. This book and this discussion are a remarkable "second draft" of history--benefiting from more access and context than contemporaneous journalism can allow, and leveraging fresh recollections and insights into events whose implications have not yet fully played out.  This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin on February 14, 2023.

A year ago, as Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine was proving not to be the quick and easy victory Vladimir Putin had expected, some observers speculated that the bungled decision to invade his neighbor could be Putin's undoing.  The idea of a Russian state without Putin raised alluring prospects of reform. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, American University Professor Joseph Torigian discusses the dynamics of authoritarian succession. His book, Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China After Stalin and Mao, contradicts conventional scholarship. While the most significant autocratic power transitions of the 20th Century did result in more reform-minded leaders in the Soviet Union and China, Torigian argues that Nikita Kruschev and Deng Xiaoping earned their leadership positions the old-fashioned way: by intrigue, politicking, and making promises to gain the support of the military and security services. Torigian's talk is both a fascinating history, and an important caution in setting expectations for leadership transition in Russia and China, whenever and however it may occur. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we listen to a discussion between Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. Brands and Inboden discuss a book written by Brands and Michael Beckley, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China. While many pundits project conflict between the United States and China (most recently, Air Force General Michael Minihan), Brands’ prognosis stands out for its thoughtfulness and for its recognition that armed conflict between these two superpowers would be militarily and financially disastrous for the world. By focusing on the factors that seem to aggravate risk over the next several years, Brands provides a compelling description of how the United States might safely navigate this perilous period in U.S.-Sino competition. This discussion was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.

On this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma Clement Center Senior National Security Fellow Mark Pomar, who helped to oversee the Russian language broadcasts of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty during the Cold War, discusses his book, Cold War Radio: The Russian Broadcasts of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Pomar is joined by Professor Kiril Avramov in a great discussion of both how the Russian language broadcasts helped to advance American interests, and how information figures in contemporary conflicts, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin in October 2022.

Many great figures in American history are full of contradictions. Thomas Jefferson wrote stirringly about liberty while owning human beings as property. Woodrow Wilson was both the idealistic author of the 14 Points, and a racist who re-segregated the federal work force. But few figures in American history embody as many contradictions as the two featured in this week's Horns of a Dilemma: Lyndon Johnson, and J. Edgar Hoover. Yale Professor Beverly Gage discusses her new biography of Hoover, G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century. Beause she is speaking at the LBJ library, she focuses particularly on the relationship between Hoover and Johnson. Her talk is humorous, informative, and helps to highlight the way in which Hoover played a critical role in both securing and undermining many of the civil liberties that define contemporary American society.  

This week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma features author and public intellectual Walter Russell Mead speaking about his book, The Arc of a Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People. As Mead discusses, the trope that American foreign policy toward Israel can be explained by the outsized influence of Jewish people in American government is common, not only among fringe thinkers and conspiracy theorists, but even among audiences that otherwise display considerable sophistication. Seeking to dispel this myth, Mead set out in this book to articulate what does explain American foreign policy toward Israel. The result is a fascinating glimpse into American idealism and shifts in American domestic politics. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.