Horns of a Dilemma

Dr. Joshua Geltzer, former Deputy Assistant to the President and Legal Advisor to the National Security Council, shares his extensive experience on two crucial topics: artificial intelligence in national security and the evolving policies surrounding hostage recovery. He offers an in-depth look into both the potential and challenges of AI and the heart-wrenching yet vital efforts in recovering American hostages and detainees.

We sit down with Dartmouth national security scholars Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno as they compare Cold War export control strategies with modern attempts to limit China's access to sensitive US technologies. They delve into three key lessons from the historical CoCom regime, discuss the evolving technological competition with China, and reflect on the feasibility of current US policies. Their article "Hard Then, Harder Now: CoCom's Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China," is featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4.

Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford) and Nicola Leveringhaus (King's College London) join us to discuss the evolving global landscape of nuclear security. Together, we examine the roundtable essays featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4, focusing on shifts in nuclear politics catalyzed by China's rise, changing domestic politics, and increased multipolar competition. The discussion delves into the interconnectedness of global nuclear dynamics, the importance of domestic political drivers, and the implications for US and European security strategies. Roundtable: https://tnsr.org/roundtable/navigating-the-new-nuclear-map/

Chris Walsh and Igor Khrestin from the George W. Bush Institute join Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens for this discussion dealing with the historical context and current challenges in U.S. policy toward North Korea. They touch on the role of human rights and democracy, the impact of China's and Russia's support for North Korea, and potential strategies for future administrations. Along with former Senator Cory Gardner, Walsh and Khrestin co-authored the article "US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" featured in Volume 8, Issue 4 of the journal. Tune in for a comprehensive exploration of one of America's most persistent foreign policy dilemmas.

Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, dives into the surprising overconfidence of national security officials. He discusses how these experts often misinterpret uncertainty, with findings showing 90% confidence translates to only 57% accuracy. Key topics include the need for structured feedback, the impact of rapid decision-making on intuition, and effective calibration training that can boost accuracy. Friedman also offers practical steps for individuals and institutions to improve their decision-making processes in a complex world.

Mariya Grinberg, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at MIT and author of "Trade in War," explores the intriguing dynamics of trade during wartime. She challenges the notion that economic exchanges cease amidst conflict, discussing her wartime trade theory. Grinberg reveals how states weigh military benefits against economic costs, with modern examples like the U.S.-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Her insights shed light on the complexities of wartime trade policies and the persistence of economic interactions even in the face of war.

We engage with Erica Lonergan and Jack Snyder, authors of "Cultural Change in Military Organizations: Hackers and Warriors in the US Army." The discussion delves into the fusion of cyber and traditional military cultures within the U.S. Army, focusing on the creation of the Cyber Corps and its implications for national security. The conversation highlights the backstory, challenges, and future of integrating a cyber warrior ethos into the military, sparking considerations for a potential new independent cyber service.

Richard Maass, an associate professor at Old Dominion University and expert in international law, joins to discuss gray zone aggression. He highlights how countries like Russia and China exploit ambiguous legal frameworks to undermine state sovereignty. The conversation covers the need for clearer definitions and stronger legal deterrents to address these challenges. Maass also emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary research in creating innovative strategies to counteract these tactics, illustrating the complexities of modern international relations.

Jon Caverley, a national security expert and professor at the United States Naval War College, discusses the critical military implications of Chinese control over Taiwan. He explores the concept of kill chains within U.S. military strategy, emphasizing the role of advanced space capabilities. Caverley also grapples with the risks of anti-satellite warfare and its impact on operations in the Pacific. He highlights the importance of strategic dialogue between military and academic sectors to inform defense policies, particularly the need to balance support for Taiwan amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest interview Herb Lin, a national security expert from Stanford University. They discuss his article, "Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A Commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits," and explore the complex interplay between AI, nuclear strategy, and human control. Read the article: https://tnsr.org/2025/06/artificial-intelligence-and-nuclear-weapons-a-commonsense-approach-to-understanding-costs-and-benefits/