Horns of a Dilemma

In this engaging discussion, Bence Nemeth, a Senior Lecturer at King's College London and expert in defense economics, explores the implications of a potential U.S. 'Suez moment.' He compares historical crises to today’s challenges, dissecting how shifts in U.S. military primacy could impact allies. Bence emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between short-term political changes and enduring alliance frameworks. He outlines scenarios of alliance adaptation versus hollowing, stressing the need for the U.S. to rebuild capabilities and strengthen its security community.

Tyler Bowen, an Assistant Professor at the U.S. Naval War College and author on nuclear strategy, dives into the complexities of conventional coercion amid modern nuclear threats. He discusses the resurgence of nuclear deterrence influenced by global tensions like Russia's war in Ukraine and China’s military expansion. Bowen elaborates on his 'conventional options theory,' detailing conditions for coercive success and applying historical case studies to extract vital lessons. He emphasizes the balance of conventional threat types and how they shape contemporary military strategies.

Dr. Marina Henke, a leading expert in international relations and security policy, discusses her article on grand strategy. She defines it as prioritizing resource allocation under uncertainty and highlights failures in recent strategies, including Germany's and the U.S.'s. Henke stresses the importance of continuous updates and clear goals, arguing that democracies must engage the public in strategic discourse. She also critiques political challenges that make effective prioritization difficult, emphasizing the need for coherent policy across departments.

Sheena Chestnut Greitens sat down with Ambassador Kang Kyung-wha, the Republic of Korea's ambassador to the United States. Recorded before a live audience at The University of Texas at Austin on December 3, the conversation explores the deepening alignment between Seoul and Washington. Ambassador Kang and Dr. Greitens discuss the implementation of the recent $350 billion Korean government-led investment in the United States, focusing on seven key sectors including shipbuilding, semiconductors, and nuclear energy. The discussion addresses the challenges of workforce training and visa policy following recent immigration enforcement actions in Georgia. The conversation also covers the shifting geopolitical landscape, specifically the implications of deepened military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Finally, the ambassador outlines priorities for modernizing the alliance, including the transfer of wartime operational control and cooperation on nuclear fuel cycles and nuclear-powered submarines. This event was supported by the Asia Policy Program at The University of Texas at Austin, the Clements Center for National Security, the Strauss Center for International Security and Law, the LBJ School of Public Affairs, and the Korea Economic Institute of America.

Dr. Carter Malkasian joins us to explore how the "democratization of violence"—driven by the availability of assault rifles and explosives—empowered non-state actors and challenged state authority throughout the Cold War. The conversation also addresses the role of Islam in legitimizing non-state violence and how foreign intervention accelerated these trends. Malkasian's latest article, "Wars of the Greater Middle East, 1945–92," is featured in TNSR Volume 9, Issue 1.

Dr. Joshua Geltzer, former Deputy Assistant to the President and Legal Advisor to the National Security Council, shares his extensive experience on two crucial topics: artificial intelligence in national security and the evolving policies surrounding hostage recovery. He offers an in-depth look into both the potential and challenges of AI and the heart-wrenching yet vital efforts in recovering American hostages and detainees.

We sit down with Dartmouth national security scholars Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno as they compare Cold War export control strategies with modern attempts to limit China's access to sensitive US technologies. They delve into three key lessons from the historical CoCom regime, discuss the evolving technological competition with China, and reflect on the feasibility of current US policies. Their article "Hard Then, Harder Now: CoCom's Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China," is featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4.

Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford) and Nicola Leveringhaus (King's College London) join us to discuss the evolving global landscape of nuclear security. Together, we examine the roundtable essays featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4, focusing on shifts in nuclear politics catalyzed by China's rise, changing domestic politics, and increased multipolar competition. The discussion delves into the interconnectedness of global nuclear dynamics, the importance of domestic political drivers, and the implications for US and European security strategies. Roundtable: https://tnsr.org/roundtable/navigating-the-new-nuclear-map/

Chris Walsh and Igor Khrestin from the George W. Bush Institute join Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens for this discussion dealing with the historical context and current challenges in U.S. policy toward North Korea. They touch on the role of human rights and democracy, the impact of China's and Russia's support for North Korea, and potential strategies for future administrations. Along with former Senator Cory Gardner, Walsh and Khrestin co-authored the article "US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" featured in Volume 8, Issue 4 of the journal. Tune in for a comprehensive exploration of one of America's most persistent foreign policy dilemmas.

Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, dives into the surprising overconfidence of national security officials. He discusses how these experts often misinterpret uncertainty, with findings showing 90% confidence translates to only 57% accuracy. Key topics include the need for structured feedback, the impact of rapid decision-making on intuition, and effective calibration training that can boost accuracy. Friedman also offers practical steps for individuals and institutions to improve their decision-making processes in a complex world.