Horns of a Dilemma The Strategic Significance of Taiwan in US Defense Planning
Jul 28, 2025
Jon Caverley, a national security expert and professor at the United States Naval War College, discusses the critical military implications of Chinese control over Taiwan. He explores the concept of kill chains within U.S. military strategy, emphasizing the role of advanced space capabilities. Caverley also grapples with the risks of anti-satellite warfare and its impact on operations in the Pacific. He highlights the importance of strategic dialogue between military and academic sectors to inform defense policies, particularly the need to balance support for Taiwan amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Taiwan's Limited Military Impact
- Taiwan's control impacts military balance less than commonly believed.
- China's power projection capabilities largely develop independently of Taiwan.
Kill Chain Analysis of Taiwan
- The kill chain model breaks military targeting into find, fix, and finish tasks.
- Taiwan's possession minimally improves China's sensing but allows some short-range missile use.
Space Dominates Military Range
- Space-based assets are critical for China’s long-range missile targeting capabilities.
- Without space sensing, China’s weapon engagement zone shrinks dramatically to 600 km.