The Other Hand

Ireland’s tax take is extremely buoyant, at least for the first 9 months of the year. What to spend all the money on? can it last?Boris Johnson has discovered an economic ideology. One that makes no sense whatsoever but is an interesting departure. He is finally accountable for something that can be measured. But Tories don’t like ideologies, least of all one that is a sort of anti-business Neanderthal Thatcherism. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The world economy is slowing down. Asia, including China, is weakening. European indicators are flashing Amber. Britain’s bosses are warning about a collapse in confidence. The energy shock, if it persists, could lead to even more trouble.A small thing perhaps, but a British minister has, finally, admitted that Brexit involves an economic ‘transition’. That’s code for ‘problem’. Maybe even ‘trouble’. Cast in the language of ‘moving from one equilibrium to another’. It’s school-level economics. Remember: there is no plan. Restricting immigration, raising taxes and throwing sand in the wheels of trade are the three things they have done. The idea now is to sit back and observe the ‘transition’ to sunny uplands. It could be a long wait. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rising oil and gas prices join the long list of things joining the inflation party. How are central banks going to react? Is this the end of the long party for stock markets?Is this an energy crisis that could bring the post-pandemic recovery to a juddering halt?‘Conspicuous environmentalism”. Surely it’s time for leadership and honesty? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We ignore history. Policymakers certainly do. But there is very little new under the sun. Duncan Weldon reminds us that we ignore history at our peril. And peril is where we are at. There is so much in this unusually readable book. ‘Levelling up’ is at least a century old, despite Boris Johnson taking credit for its invention. Want to know what some of today’s Trump-Johnson-Orban leaders resemble Mafia Dons? Take a look at history: we are more often ruled by kleptocrats than democrats. Jim and Chris have an enjoyable, longer than usual, but highly entertaining chat with Duncan Weldon about his new book, ‘Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through. The Surprising Story of the British Economy’. You will be surprised! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is China and it’s indebted property companies reliving the West’s Great Financial Crisis?Gas prices and inflation and a cost of living crisis? Empty shelves for Christmas? Regular journey’s by road and sea between Britain and Ireland: a changing perspective. A radically different perspective.The Other Hand is completely free to read & listen. Please spare a few seconds and give us a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Many thanks This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The annual budget circus has started. Love Island is more entertaining and only marginally less significant. Why do we do this to ourselves?Years ago, politicians deemed themselves incapable of managing monetary policy and the all-important setting of interest rates was handed over to technocratic central bankers. Surely the same considerations apply to taxation & spending policies? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Some personal reflections on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11.And some stuff on the budget and interest rates This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Economist has a big piece this week on ‘the rise of the illiberal left’. That newspaper is as worried about the extreme left as it is about the totalitarian right. So are we.One aspect of political extremism is lying. Chris’s written piece on this is questioned by Jim - not uncritically!Economic forecasting is an exercise in futility. Most of the time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of economic data over past few days, all pointing to very robust growth as the economy reopens. Plenty of questions remain over the sustainability of that growth. Almost all countries are in the same post-pandemic (we hope!) boat: a big surge in growth but supply constraints and a changed labour market raise plenty of questions. Another shiny new housing plan but how robust are its foundations? The annual central bank off-site in Jackson Hole is closely watched for clues about US interest rates. But some economists are beginning to think that the era of low interest rates is not really under the control of our monetary masters. It could be that as the rich get richer they save and don’t spend. And those savings drive interest rates down and stock markets and house prices up. If true, this will have ramifications for years to come. Inequality isn’t just bad, it’s really bad. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

So much shallow thinking is applied to so many of our problems. Not least housing. But also low pay and inequality.The Fed gets all this, even if many do notWhy does Dublin stink? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.