The Other Hand

The Economist has a big piece this week on ‘the rise of the illiberal left’. That newspaper is as worried about the extreme left as it is about the totalitarian right. So are we.One aspect of political extremism is lying. Chris’s written piece on this is questioned by Jim - not uncritically!Economic forecasting is an exercise in futility. Most of the time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of economic data over past few days, all pointing to very robust growth as the economy reopens. Plenty of questions remain over the sustainability of that growth. Almost all countries are in the same post-pandemic (we hope!) boat: a big surge in growth but supply constraints and a changed labour market raise plenty of questions. Another shiny new housing plan but how robust are its foundations? The annual central bank off-site in Jackson Hole is closely watched for clues about US interest rates. But some economists are beginning to think that the era of low interest rates is not really under the control of our monetary masters. It could be that as the rich get richer they save and don’t spend. And those savings drive interest rates down and stock markets and house prices up. If true, this will have ramifications for years to come. Inequality isn’t just bad, it’s really bad. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

So much shallow thinking is applied to so many of our problems. Not least housing. But also low pay and inequality.The Fed gets all this, even if many do notWhy does Dublin stink? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Hong Kong stock market is off 20% from its high earlier this year. That’s the conventional definition of a bear market. Is this the start of something big - the long-awaited global market correction - or is it just down to China’s attempts to cut it giant corporations down to size? What is China actually up to? It’s not easy to question the environmental consensus. Those that do so are vilified. But unquestioning acceptance of conventional wisdom rarely makes for scientific progress. What are the right questions? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anger is not a strategy. You won’t get lower house prices or lower rents by shouting at the people who bring you the facts. You certainly won’t get more houses if you vote for politicians who magnify and exploit your anger.Following the Great Financial Crisis there was the age of austerity. The Covid crisis is shaping up to be the exact opposite.The tragedy unfolding in Afghanistan was surely avoidable, at least in terms of scale. There will be lots and lots of consequences This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim takes us through the latest economic newsWhy has the environment become so political? Surely it’s just a big problem that needs a solution without left and right taking swings at each other?Ireland is, at last, a big vaccination success. Is this because there are fewer anti-vax nutcases? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What does economic normality look like?We suggest that nothing will be normal until interest rates rise. Zero interest rates are connected to lots of things: income and wealth inequality, ever higher house prices. But have we turned Japanese? And has Australia quietly moved on from zero covid? recognising that it is a ‘forever strategy’? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim has been travelling but thinks he might need to keep it quiet.China has taken a sledge hammer to its education and tech sectors. Why?Latest IMF economic forecasts on a watershed day for the Irish Economy. Some Covid arithmetic explaining why vaccinated people turning up in hospital is not as worrying as first appears. And young people looking for their pitchforks. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest inflation news on both sides of the Atlantic has been grim. The debate goes on: is the surge in prices temporary?Lots of data on the Irish economy and a changed future fiscal stance: more spending for longer. The state of our politics: the usual suspects call this austerity. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Anyone heading off after July 19th should steel themselves for sticker shock, not least for car rental prices. Inflation continues its global creep.Boris Johnson look a worried man - for very good reason. The numbers don’t support what he is doing - or at least reveal a massive gamble. Just as England’s social problems reveal a very troubled country. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.