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Odd Lots

Latest episodes

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Jan 31, 2022 • 42min

China Is Changing Its Coal Use, and It Affects the Whole World

Over the last several months, Europe has seen its power costs soar. There are many drivers of it, but one factor has been a shift in Chinese energy consumption. While China has plenty of domestic coal resources, from time to time it imports quite a bit, depending on transportation costs. This can have major ramifications for prices outside of its borders. Meanwhile, China is undergoing a meaningful change to move off of coal and rely more on renewables and nuclear power. To help us understand what it means, we speak with Alex Turnbull, the author of a new paper on Chinese goal use, to break down what happened, and where it's going.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 27, 2022 • 46min

This Is the Evergrande Endgame as China’s Property Problems Spread

Late last year, the big Chinese property developer Evergrande started running into severe financial distress, as its bonds tumbled and frustrated customers faced delays in getting their homes. Since then, it's gotten worse. Evergrande is still troubled, as are other property developers who have also run into stress. So what does it mean, and what are China's goals here? On this episode, we speak with Travis Lundy, an independent analyst on the Smartkarma platform, who has studied these companies in depth. He explains why things have gotten worse, and what China's goals are with a property sector that historically has been so crucial to its economic model.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 24, 2022 • 55min

The Electric Vehicle Revolution Is On, and It’s Going to Change Everything

The EV revolution is official on. Sales are soaring around the world as the internal combustion engine era starts to fade. But if you're just thinking about what's inside the car, you're missing some big stories. All kinds of industries and patterns of behavior are going to change because of the switch. On this episode, we speak with Nat Bullard, the Chief Content Officer at BloombergNEF, who walks us through all the various ramifications both inside and outside of the existing auto industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 20, 2022 • 49min

Inventory Vanishing and Bidding Wars Exploding in Crazy U.S. Housing Market

If you wanted to buy a home in 2021, you probably found it a frustrating experience, rife with a shortage of options, and intense bidding wars. Well? Bad news: So far, things are even hotter in 2022. So what's going on? Where are all the homes disappearing to? Why is there nothing for sale? Why are people happy to place higher and higher bids? On this episode we speak with Mike Simonsen, the CEO and founder of the real estate data provider Altos Research, to explain the acute and long-term trends driving the market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 17, 2022 • 39min

Paul Mcnamara on the Problem With Turkey, and the Attempt To Save the Lira

Near the end of 2021, Turkey's government undertook a bold measure to stabilize the lira after the currency got clobbered throughout much of the year. The basic idea is that the government would pay savers to lock up their currency in lira, and compensate them if it fell too far against the dollar. But can it work? Does it address the core problem of the Turkish economy? To understand more, and to get the perspective of outside investors, we speak with Paul McNamara, a fund manager at GAM and a veteran EM watcher, to get a handle on the government's new measure, the challenges with it, and why Turkey is prone to so much volatility.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 13, 2022 • 42min

Afghanistan’s Former Central Bank Chief on the Dire State of the Country’s Economy

The Afghanistan economy was already in bad shape, with heavy reliance on foreign dollars, prior to the collapse of the government and the takeover by the Taliban. Since the fall, things have gotten even worse, with inflation accelerating and GDP plunging. There are multiple factors at work, though the main one is the cutting off of outside sources of dollars. On this episode we speak with Ajmal Ahmady, the former head of Afghanistan's central bank, on the difficult situation, and how the economy might operate going forward.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 10, 2022 • 42min

A Top Antitrust Lawyer on How Increased Competition Could Fight Inflation

When people think about tools to fight inflation, usually things like taxes or monetary policy come to mind. But lately there’s been more discussion about corporate power (particularly concentrated corporate power) as a source of higher prices. So what can the government actually do? On this episode, we speak with Craig Seebald, a partner at Vinson & Elkins, and leader of the firm’s antitrust group, to understand how the law in this space gets applied.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 6, 2022 • 54min

Why the Price of Coffee Beans Soared in the Last Year

Agricultural commodities have generally surged in price over the last year. One commodity that's gone particularly wild is the coffee bean. Arabica beans — those at the premium end — are up about 100% since January 2021. So what's going on? Well, part of it is the generalized inflation, but like many other ags, weather has a lot to do with it. To start, bad weather in Brazil has had a negative impact on supply. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Ryan Delany, a longtime player in the space and founder of the Coffee Trading Academy, to understand how this market works, and what's driven the huge price swing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jan 3, 2022 • 45min

Understanding Turkey’s Bold Plan To Stabilize the Lira

The Turkish lira was incredibly volatile in 2021. After getting crushed and falling to record levels, it bounced back in the middle of December after the government announced an unconventional plan to encourage Turkish citizens to keep their money in lira rather than converting to dollars. But how does it work? And can it actually work over the long term? On this episode we speak with Lütfullah Bingöl, an economist at Albaraka Türk Katılım Bankası on how the program might actually work. He likens the program to a free lira put option offered to people who keep their money in the domestic currency.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Dec 27, 2021 • 53min

Mike Demarais on Design in Crypto and What Web 3.0 Will Look Like

Everyone's talking about Web 3.0 (or Web3), but there's a lot of ambiguity about what exactly it's going to look like or even what it is. Nonetheless, there's a lot of enthusiasm about a crypto-based, decentralized internet. So to learn more, we talk to one of the most interesting builders in the space. Mike Demarais is the co-founder of Rainbow.me, which makes an Ethereum wallet that emphasizes high-quality design both in terms of use and aesthetics. He explains his vision for both his company and the broader Ethereum-based future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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