The US is in the middle of another debt ceiling fight. The expectation is that it will get lifted before we hit the so called "drop dead" date — but what happens if Congress does not authorize more debt financing? What are the options for the government? Does this automatically lead to default? And if the US does default on its debt, what does that mean for the financial system and the real economy? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke Investment Group, about how the debt limit actually works, and we attempt to get an understanding of what to expect if we reach this uncharted territory.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US labor market looks rock solid. The unemployment rate is at its lowest level in 50 years, while layoffs continue to trend downward. But there's one glaring exception and that's the tech industry. Nearly every major tech company has announced layoffs in the last few months, which is exactly the opposite of how things played out over the last decade, when the sector was a bright spot in an otherwise sluggish job market. So what's going on? Why now? Who is getting cut? And will these tech workers quickly find new jobs? Can they apply their skills to the burgeoning AI space? On this episode of the podcast, we bring back Patrick McKenzie, the author of the Bits About Money newsletter, who previously worked at Stripe for six years. He talks about the current trends in tech employment and why it's still a good idea to become an engineer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, the work of John Maynard Keynes experienced a revival, as people sought answers to the problem of sluggish growth. In this cycle, sluggish growth isn't the problem. If anything, you hear business leaders and central bankers talking about the labor market being "too hot," and the need for the unemployment rate to rise. So what explains the current dynamic? And how can we sustain a hot economy without the pain of inflation? Perhaps the work of the lesser-known Polish economist Michał Kalecki holds the answers. Like Keynes, he also viewed the free market as being inherently unstable, but he came to different conclusions about why. He also explored the political economy of full employment and why this condition frustrates business leaders. On this episode, we speak with Jan Toporowski, professor of Economics and Finance at SOAS University of London, about Kalecki's work and how it can help us understand today's economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The new season of Bloomberg's Foundering podcast retraces the life and gruesome death of John McAfee. In the 1980s and ’90s, the McAfee name was synonymous with computer antivirus software, and he helped establish the modern cybersecurity industry. But afterward, his life took a strange and dark turn. He was accused of murder, an allegation he denied, and then went on the lam. He sought to reinvent himself as a cryptocurrency guru and as a candidate for US president. Reporter Jamie Tarabay interviews McAfee’s colleagues, acquaintances, investigators and family members to demystify lies he told throughout his life, reveal the secrets he kept and resolve questions surrounding his public and decades-long self-destruction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades in 2022. But despite the rapid shift in borrowing costs, not much in the financial system actually 'broke.' Stocks and other risk assets went down, but aside from a few issues like the gilt market drama in October, we didn't see a big systemic event. On this episode of Odd Lots, which was recorded live at the Credit Market Structure Alliance conference in New York, we speak with Fabio Natalucci about how he's thinking of financial risk right now. Fabio is the Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund and he writes the IMF's annual financial stability report. He walks us through the key risks he sees as still lurking in the system, as well as what's changed since 2008.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After a decade of dominance, 2022 saw tech stocks badly underperform the rest of the market. However, so far in 2023, tech stocks and other speculations have surged again. According to Steve Eisman, what we're seeing is the natural process by which a "paradigm shift" is playing out in stocks. Eisman, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, won big betting against CDOs during the Great Financial Crisis and was famously depicted in the book and movie The Big Short as one of the few investors who got it right. In this conversation, he talks about lessons learned from his career in investing, how and why big shifts happen in markets, the state of the financial system, and what sectors could win over the next decade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was looking bad there for awhile for Team Transitory. Anyone who had previously even uttered the word "transitory" in regards to inflation was regretting having used it. But lately the term is creeping back in, particularly as inflation decelerates while the unemployment rate remains low. So was the transitory perspective right all along? And is the fabled "soft landing" actually here? Macquarie Capital strategist Viktor Shvets believes it is. On this episode, the return Odd Lots guest gives his view of the economy and why he never gave up on his transitory stance. He talks about why inflation is falling and how many sources of anxiety — from geopolitical risk to deglobalization — won't materialize in the manner that many people are expecting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rent inflation went wild in 2021 and 2022, turning it into one of the most substantial drivers of overall inflation. But good news: it seems pretty clear that rents are now finally falling. Private sector measures, from companies like Apartment List and Zillow are starting to show a clear decline. So what's changed? How hard could rents drop? And could a renter in a place like New York City actually get a rent reduction? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Chris Salviati, the top housing economist at Apartment List, to discuss what's changed and what 2023 has in store.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Southwest Airlines had a disastrous holiday season, thanks in part to a software bug that left crews out of place and grounded thousands of flights. But Southwest isn't alone in having software in the headlines lately. The New York Stock Exchange recently had a software error that caused weird pricing on stocks and the FAA had its own computer issue that grounded planes earlier this month. So what's the deal with corporate software? Why do these crashes happen? And why does the user experience typically leave something to be desired? On this episode of the podcast we speak with Patrick McKenzie, an expert on engineering and infrastructure, who writes the Bits About Money newsletter and recently left payments company Stripe after six years. We talked about the challenges of keeping any software system alive after years of upgrades and updates, the distribution of tech talent across industries, and whether non-tech companies can close the gap with Silicon Valley.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The price of eggs rose 60% in 2022, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, wholesale egg prices are up 300% in the last year, creating a chart that looks almost parabolic. So what's going on? And is there any relief in sight? On this episode, we speak with Glenn Hickman, president of Hickman's Family Farms, an Arizona egg farm with roughly 10 million chickens. Glenn explains why egg prices have been shooting higher, the role of the Covid-19 pandemic, and how farms are responding to the outbreak of avian flu.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.