PIWORLD Investor Podcasts

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on events in and around the UK small and mid-cap listed tech. Looking to the US, Salesforce and C3.ai results show positive momentum for AI, as of course do Nvidia’s. But investors are asking more questions and AI vs. Economic Downturn is a match that’s difficult to call. Ian is more immediately concerned about the impact of US government actions to curtail sales into China by Cadence, Synopsis and Siemens EDA – companies which, like ASML and TSMC, you really need to understand to truly get tech. George and Ian ponder the Pensions Investment Review. Only serious AIM/small-cap Kool-Aid imbibers would have hoped for much, so AIM/Aquis ranking on a par with a theme park near Bedford is perhaps a result. Directing money to infrastructure/tech direct impact is an easier sell to the party/public than bailing out UK public equities. Consider those who look upon it from the outside. This is a government that is trying to do something to stimulate growth. Something that could, or even should, be seen as a positive development. To outsiders the failings of UK public equities and small-cap / AIM in particular are all too evident and have been for quite some time. It’s widely recognised as a market and regulatory structure that does not work as it should for investors or companies. Perhaps that needs changing to get Rachel Reeves onside. Grabbing the segue across to a market that has seen success on AIM, George highlights recent gaming sector newsflow and the potential for patient investors to gain from its returning health.

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown recently had another chance to talk to Substack’s No. 1 financial commentator, Doomberg. It has been some 15 months since they last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President. Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up. Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views. The pair discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It’s all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI’s enormous demand for US natural gas. Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail.

Cerillion CEO, Louis Hall and CFO, Andrew Dickson present the business's Interim results for the six months ended 31 March 2025, followed by a Q&A session. Louis Hall, CEO 00:16 Introduction 01:14 Company background 01:50 Cerillion's products 03:33 Business overview 03:58 H1 2025 highlights Andrew Dickson, CFO 07:25 Performance against KPI's 10:30 H1 2025 Financial highlights 12:48 Cash generation 14:02 Income statement 14:38 Balance sheet Louis Hall, CEO 15:09 Summary & outlook 17:10 Q&A Cerillion has a 25-year track record in providing mission-critical software for billing, charging and customer relationship management ("CRM"), mainly to the telecommunications sector but also to other markets, including utilities and financial services. The Company has c. 80 customer installations across c. 45 countries. Headquartered in London, Cerillion also has operations in India and Bulgaria as well as a sales presence in the USA, Singapore and Australia. The business was originally part of Logica plc before its management buyout, led by CEO, Louis Hall, in 1999. The Company joined AIM in March 2016. Find out more about the company here.

Joe Bryan, a former derivatives trader turned sports betting entrepreneur, shares his journey into the world of Bitcoin. He discusses how societal issues like inequality and addiction are intertwined with flawed monetary systems. Joe's presentation, 'What's the Problem?', highlights the dangers of fiat money and advocates for Bitcoin as an inevitable solution. He critiques central banking and emphasizes Bitcoin’s potential to empower individuals and reshape finance. His passionate insights invite listeners to reconsider the future of money.

This week Progressive's Gareth and Jeremy continue their discussion about the bond market's predicament. Japan's Ministry of Finance thought that sending a questionnaire to its bond investors would resolve its problem. But it soon encountered another difficult auction, suggesting that its first step in acknowledging the problem was insufficient. Meanwhile, Japan's manufacturing prowess is under attack from China, its biggest competitor and from the US, its largest customer. The fact that Japan holds over a trillion dollars of US Treasury debt is a card to consider in its trade talks with the US. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs have encountered a judicial roadblock, causing a sharp recovery in risk assets. However, this was not so helpful for bond markets, where investors had hoped that tariffs might plug some of the fiscal hole left by Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. In the UK, Rachel Reeves has signaled her intention to term forward its debt, increasing her interest rate exposure but lowering her short-term funding costs. Additionally, the IMF is offering air cover for her to bend her unbendable fiscal rules. A treat not afforded to her predecessors. Watch out for the spending spigots to turn fully on. The takeaway is that long-term global inflation expectations are out of the bottle, the bond market term premia hares are running, and there is a return to the old idea of outrunning the looming debt crisis. This raises the risk of monetary debasement, which should be beneficial for Bitcoin, gold, and (selectively) equities. Gareth covers updates from Beeks, and Watkins Jones. Looking ahead, it's jobs week in the US. We get EA inflation data and the ECB rate decision. Additionally, confirmation that the economy slowed sharply in Q1 could raise concerns about the potential for a recession in the US. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson consider Sage’s results and the return of the normal share price path following results. George points to Xero as Sage’s rain cloud whilst Ian points to the success of Sage’s Intacct offering. Gamma’s AGM statement contained comments in the UK market that led to a share price fall, although the progress in Germany is something that the market should not ignore. Tech and defence is discussed – George and Ian reflect on the spoof potential, surely not!

This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss a smorgasbord of newsflow...from trade deals to interest rate cuts (or lack of them) and the selection of Maro Itoje as captain of the Lions team. UK stocks discussed include ZOO Digital and Van Elle, and Jeremy describes the divergent outcomes for Alpha Group and Argentex...two payments/FX trading platforms who have had their resilience tested in recent years, with wildly different results. Next week will see UK unemployment and GDP data, with US retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment...watch for an angry Trump.

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss a slightly more normal week - Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon are talking up the UK market just as capital is being freed-up from the Mag Seven. The UK small-cap space is delivering strong performance from stocks able to deliver not-worsening performance...we discuss Watkin Jones, Sanderson Design Group and IG Design as well as global shipping heavyweight Clarkson. Jeremy highlights that lower energy prices could help pressure Putin towards peace, as well as potentially saving Labour's bacon - if they can wean themselves off Net Zero.... Next week is all about interest rate decisions...Trump vs Powell back in the headlines.

David Dredge, a renowned risk analyst at Convex Strategies, shares his captivating insights from Singapore. He argues for the importance of embracing convexity in investment strategies, comparing it to insuring a house. Challenging Modern Portfolio Theory, Dredge reveals how it misdefines risk, seeing it merely as volatility. He emphasizes that true risk comes from unintended consequences and critiques regulatory complacency in financial markets. With engaging anecdotes, he illustrates how to navigate emerging markets and manage systemic risks effectively.

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on news and events affecting UK small and mid-cap tech. IBM’s figures get George pondering the differing paths with AI for software vs IT professional services. He highlights the Asian IT services area, where growth is notably better than in the EU or North America, before looking at results from ActiveOps, GB Group and iOmart. Ian comments on Oxford Metrics’ in-line update, Northcoders, and then Tracsis, where investors who bought into an earnings growth and digitalisation story have to work out where the UK rail system is now heading. Ian eulogises about the Stanford AI report. It provides some encouraging data for UK tech proponents and provides insight into how AI is actually being used and what limited gains AI provides. George focuses on the AI benchmarks issue – are they meaningful? Which leads Ian to question, given the huge scale and nature of many AI projects, whether any of the returns and benefits data that everyone craves is going to be valid.