The Market Call - Week Ending 30th May 2025

This week Progressive's Gareth and Jeremy continue their discussion about the bond market's predicament. Japan's Ministry of Finance thought that sending a questionnaire to its bond investors would resolve its problem. But it soon encountered another difficult auction, suggesting that its first step in acknowledging the problem was insufficient.

Meanwhile, Japan's manufacturing prowess is under attack from China, its biggest competitor and from the US, its largest customer. The fact that Japan holds over a trillion dollars of US Treasury debt is a card to consider in its trade talks with the US.

Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs have encountered a judicial roadblock, causing a sharp recovery in risk assets. However, this was not so helpful for bond markets, where investors had hoped that tariffs might plug some of the fiscal hole left by Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.

In the UK, Rachel Reeves has signaled her intention to term forward its debt, increasing her interest rate exposure but lowering her short-term funding costs. Additionally, the IMF is offering air cover for her to bend her unbendable fiscal rules. A treat not afforded to her predecessors. Watch out for the spending spigots to turn fully on.

The takeaway is that long-term global inflation expectations are out of the bottle, the bond market term premia hares are running, and there is a return to the old idea of outrunning the looming debt crisis. This raises the risk of monetary debasement, which should be beneficial for Bitcoin, gold, and (selectively) equities.

Gareth covers updates from Beeks, and Watkins Jones.

Looking ahead, it's jobs week in the US. We get EA inflation data and the ECB rate decision. Additionally, confirmation that the economy slowed sharply in Q1 could raise concerns about the potential for a recession in the US.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.