Plain English with Derek Thompson

Derek breaks down the dynamics of the upcoming 2024 election, highlighting Kamala Harris's rise within the Democratic ranks. He evaluates the science behind post-convention excitement and how it may affect polling trends. While Democrats may feel optimistic, he warns that the polling margins are slimmer than they seem. The discussion sheds light on the challenges both parties face as they gear up for a tumultuous election year, reminding listeners that the political landscape can shift dramatically.

David Broockman, a political scientist from UC Berkeley, joins the discussion to debunk the four biggest myths about political persuasion. They explore how mind-changing during elections is rare and the psychological factors influencing voter decisions. Broockman emphasizes the need to understand moral foundations, contrasting conservative and progressive values for effective persuasion. They highlight the challenges of reaching swing voters with positive messaging while revealing how media exposure can subtly shift opinions, though often temporarily.

Laurie Santos, a cognitive scientist at Yale University and host of the Happiness Lab podcast, dives into the fascinating world of happiness research. She explores cognitive time travel, discussing how reflecting on the past and envisioning the future can ease anxiety. Laurie breaks down the layers of happiness, emphasizing the importance of staying present and navigating life's challenges. She also highlights the joy of social interactions, even with strangers, and the impact of technology on our connections. A thought-provoking conversation on achieving true contentment!

Conor Sen, a Bloomberg financial columnist, shares his insights on the current economic landscape marked by a disappointing jobs report and a global stock market downturn. He dives into the implications of the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes amidst rising unemployment fears. The conversation also explores the yen carry trade's influence on global markets and rising concerns about an AI investment bubble. Throughout, Sen emphasizes the delicate balancing act the Fed faces while navigating these tumultuous economic conditions.

Joshua Bercu, the executive director of the Industry Traceback Group, dives into the epidemic of robocalls, revealing that the average American is bombarded with spam calls daily. He explains clever tactics used by scammers, such as neighbor spoofing, which make it hard to trace them back. Bercu also discusses measures taken to battle the spam crisis, like industry collaborations and innovative technologies. Additionally, the conversation touches on Kamala Harris and gender trends in the upcoming election, highlighting the intersection of technology and political polarization.

Greg Lukianoff, President and CEO of FIRE and co-author of 'The Coddling of the American Mind', dives into the intriguing happiness divide between conservatives and progressives. He reveals that despite growing institutional distrust, conservatives report higher life satisfaction than progressives, who are experiencing increased anxiety and depression. The discussion highlights how modern progressivism has shifted from optimism to negativity, impacting social justice efforts. Lukianoff also explores cognitive distortions and their role in shaping perceptions, advocating for resilience in the face of challenges.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, shares his insights on America's economic future. He addresses the possibility of interest rate cuts and discusses how high rates are impacting housing production. Goolsbee debunks the notion that Trump's high tariffs could solve current economic challenges. The conversation dives into the complexities of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and the mixed signals in the labor market, revealing a surprising resilience in the economy despite rising rates.

Mike Simonsen, the data-driven mind behind Altos Research, and Lance Lambert, co-founder of the insightful Residential Club newsletter, dive into the perplexing U.S. housing market. They explore why prices remain sky-high despite plummeting demand and debate the eerie 'locking effect' of low mortgage rates stemming from existing homeowners. The duo analyzes regional discrepancies, the effects of rising interest rates, and the growing influence of individual investors, unpacking a market that seems both bizarre and unpredictable.

In this discussion, Mark Leibovich, a Staff writer at The Atlantic, and Alex Thompson, political correspondent for Axios, dive into the fallout from Joe Biden's recent debate performance. They analyze the Democratic Party's 'Project Bubble Wrap' strategy aimed at shielding Biden, examining the tension between optimistic portrayals and public skepticism about his age. They also tackle the hypocrisy of Democrats in privately acknowledging concerns about Biden while maintaining public silence, as well as the speculation surrounding Kamala Harris's potential candidacy.

In this engaging discussion, guest James Alan Fox, a renowned criminologist and author, delves into the shocking rise and sudden decline of serial killers in America. He explores historical trends, revealing how societal changes and technological advancements transformed criminal investigation. Fox contrasts the Hollywood portrayal of these criminals with their often mundane realities. He also discusses the evolution of DNA technology and its impact on solving cold cases, shedding light on the complex relationship between crime and changing cultural narratives.