VoxTalks Economics

It is now a month since President Trump’s inauguration, and it’s fair to say that a lot has happened already. In a special episode we talk to Moreno Bertoldi of ISPI and Marco Buti of EUI about how the EU can be smart when imposing reciprocal tariffs, whether the US economic agenda and the EU’s growth strategy are sustainable – and how the EU can maintain a united front in response to a looming trade war. 

Jonna Olsson, an economist from the Norwegian School of Economics, dives into the complexities of work patterns and productivity. She discusses whether more productive individuals really work more or less, challenging common beliefs. Olsson explores the intricate balance between wages and leisure, revealing how economic growth influences these choices. The conversation also touches on how risk management and access to insurance can affect productivity, alongside a critique of current labor market models that overlook essential dynamics.

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. Europe faces a gigantic climate investment gap. Can an EU climate debt financing scheme help to close it? To do this, Irene Monasterolo and her co-authors are proposing the joint issuance of climate bonds by the European Stability Mechanism, funded by selling greenhouse gas emission allowances via the ETS. She talks to Tim Phillips about what this would mean in practice for the greening of the monetary system and the efforts of EU states to counter the effects of climate change – and also the political impact if the funding mechanism creates the EU’s first common fiscal capacity.

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. At COPs or the WEF, we regularly hear about ambitious tree-planting initiatives. These massive programs have been praised as a way to motivate entire communities to join the fight against climate change, but do we know what their impact on the environment or the economy would be? An ingenious piece of research that evaluates a century-old environmental policy in the US gives us a valuable new insight into what planting trees, if done carefully, can achieve. Florian Grosset-Touba spoke to Tim Phillips about the history of tree-planting programmes, where and how to plant them, and the potential impact on the climate and the economy. 

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium.  For several decades, global financial markets have been increasingly integrated. But has that process now gone into reverse? If so, what blocs does the fracturing of global financial markets create, and what might be the consequences of what we now call financial deglobalization? Linda Goldberg and Signe Krogstrup spoke to Tim Phillips about what these changes in the global financial system might mean for price stability, financial stability, and payments.

Bruno Biais, a Professor at HEC Paris, delves into the intriguing world of cryptocurrencies as a safeguard against economic turmoil. He discusses how these digital currencies can counteract government-driven inflation, echoing Friedrich Hayek's ideas on money. Biais highlights their emerging role in countries with unstable financial systems and shares examples from Nigeria where citizens turn to crypto amidst bans. The conversation also touches on the reevaluation of cryptocurrencies' volatility and their potential as a stable alternative in times of financial crisis.

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. How effective have the trade sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022 been? Politically, they were comprehensive and quick. But anecdotal reporting has suggested that Russian firms that wanted to get round the sanctions could do so. To reach a more rigorous conclusion, Tim Phillips spoke to Dzhamilya Nigmatulina about the research that she and her colleagues have done using domestic railway shipments, firm balance sheets, and government procurement data to produce the most comprehensive analysis so far of the economic impact so far of the trade sanctions on Russia.

Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it was already under sanctions for annexing Crimea in 2014. But did the gradual way in which these well intended “smart sanctions” were phased in during the 2010s allow many Russian banks, and their customers, to avoid any negative consequences? Mikhail Mamonov tells Tim Phillips about the consequences, or lack of them, of the smart sanctions imposed on Russia. 

In economically depressed regions of the US – the “heartland” – President Trump’s 2018 trade war was a popular decision: “We’re going to bring jobs back to our country,” he told voters. Did the tariffs he imposed generate jobs? And what was the impact of the retaliatory tariffs imposed by China? David Dorn talks to Tim Phillips about the recent history of US trade policy, and what this means for Trump 2.0.

Maurice Obstfeld, a seasoned economist with two decades of research on global trade imbalances, dives deep into the intricacies of U.S. trade deficits. He questions popular narratives surrounding trade and job losses, particularly linked to China. The discussion highlights the real causes of these deficits amid the retreat from globalization, exploring the impact of technology on manufacturing. Obstfeld also critiques the proposed tariff solutions during the Trump administration, emphasizing their potential inflationary effects and broader economic consequences.