VoxTalks Economics

David Autor, an MIT economist known for his insights on AI's impact on jobs, discusses the dual nature of automation in the workplace. He explores how AI can displace jobs while also creating high-skill opportunities, emphasizing the evolving value of expertise. Autor highlights the importance of understanding dynamic expertise in a labor market reshaped by technology. He advocates for AI systems that enhance collaboration with skilled professionals and offers a framework for measuring job expertise, addressing both challenges and potential benefits of the future of work.

The Bank for International Settlements Annual Economic Report has just dropped, and there’s a markedly less positive tone than last year, when it was celebrating imminent soft landings in the global economy. It warns of a deteriorating outlook for growth, coupled with vulnerabilities in the global financial system.  So, what exactly is the BIS worried about, how can policy and regulation respond, and should central banks start worrying about the next systemic crisis? Gaston Gelos and Frank Smets are Deputy Heads of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS and are also two of the authors who put together the report. They talk to Tim Phillips about why last year’s optimism has disappeared, and how monetary and fiscal policy can adjust to cope with a new era of uncertainty and fragmentation. 

Whether you are looking at the link from education to economic growth, household earnings or individual happiness, there’s no doubt that a better-educated population is good news. But how can policy improve education in a cost-effective way? You might assume that a good route would be to improve the management of schools, but existing research is not conclusive, and often top-down attempts to improve management meets opposition from administrators. An experiment in Brazil has evaluated a program to improve management using existing resources in Rio de Janeiro. Tiago Cavalcanti, of University of Cambridge, Sao Paulo School of Economics & CEPR, and Felipe Puccioni of the Court of Accounts of Rio de Janeiro came up with the experiment, and they tell Tim Phillips about why universal education doesn’t necessarily mean universal learning – and how they became celebrities on national television when their successful project hit the headlines.

Pedestrianised areas, car-free streets, or low traffic neighbourhoods are increasingly visible in major cities. Whether in London, Paris, New York or Barcelona, these changes are always controversial – but does the loud criticism that we often hear in social media or newspapers really represent the views of voters who are affected by these policies? Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal of the Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona Institute of Economics and CEPR spoke to Tim Phillips about whether Barcelona’s car-free “Superblocks” were vote-winners or vote-losers for the city’s mayor. Photo: Cataleirxs

What’s the point of having a job? Clearly, to make money for ourselves and our families. But is it possible for us to discover some bigger purpose or meaning at work. And, if we do, who benefits? That’s the idea that a multinational organisation had when it called in a team of economists to analyse its internal programme called “Find your Purpose” (FYP). The resulting RCT set out to measure whether FYP changed how employees behaved at work, whether it helped them enjoy their jobs, and whether it increased profits too. Oriana Bandiera of London School of Economics and CEPR was one of those economists. She tells Tim Phillips how she took the programme and found her purpose, why FYP increased the quit rate but improved productivity, and why employees who took the programme stopped worrying about their work-life balance. 

Does the public take more notice of the opinions of male or female economists? We know that female experts, whether in science, politics or the media, suffer from an authority gap: their expertise is often not given as much weight by the public as opinions held by less qualified men. But does the gap persist for the very highest achievers? And, if it closes or even reverses for them, what lessons are there for other female experts?  Sarah Smith of the University of Bristol and CEPR recently conducted an experiment about which expert economists are most likely to influence public opinion. She tells Tim Phillips about a signal that reverses the authority gap, and how this insight can help other female economists to communicate their expertise. 

What if trade policy wasn’t really about trade at all? What if it was about revenge, power, and punishment, tariffs as tantrums and diplomacy as drama? You won’t find the Grievance Doctrine in economics textbooks, but there is one book that explains what it is, what its policies are, and the way it is currently being implemented. Richard Baldwin of IMD Business School in Lausanne, the founder and the Editor-in-Chief of VoxEU is also the author of “The Great Trade Hack”. In it, he sets out the way the Grievance Doctrine has been weaponised by this US administration, how the rest of the world could respond, and what might happen next. Richard joins Tim Phillips to explain the thinking that guides policy one of the most extraordinary periods in the history of trade – and why the rest of world will do just fine without the US as an ally. Download The Great Trade Hack.

Luc Laeven, an economist at the European Central Bank and CEPR, discusses China’s remarkable rise in academic research, revealing how it has evolved from a knowledge consumer to a global leader in just two decades. He delves into the implications of China's strategic reforms initiated in 2006, contrasting their centralized research model with Western practices. The conversation highlights the surging quality and quantity of Chinese research, the challenges of measuring impact, and examines how Europe can revamp its funding strategies to compete in this new landscape.

Tim Besley, a Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, dives deep into the relationship between economic growth and trust in government. He explores how long-term growth consistently builds trust across generations. The discussion highlights the impact of recent economic experiences on perceptions of trust, revealing cognitive biases at play. Besley contrasts various countries, examining how factors like transparency influence trust levels, especially among different age groups, shedding light on what truly inspires confidence in governance.

Yves Zenou, an economist at Monash University and a CEPR fellow, shares insights from his research on how friendship influences political opinions. He discusses a decade-old experiment at Sciences Po, revealing that brief social interactions among students can bridge political divides. The conversation touches on the impact of social media on political polarization and the significance of events like Integration Week in fostering connections. Zenou emphasizes the necessity of dialogue in reducing political extremism and promoting understanding across differing viewpoints.