Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it was already under sanctions for annexing Crimea in 2014. But did the gradual way in which these well intended “smart sanctions” were phased in during the 2010s allow many Russian banks, and their customers, to avoid any negative consequences? Mikhail Mamonov tells Tim Phillips about the consequences, or lack of them, of the smart sanctions imposed on Russia. 

In economically depressed regions of the US – the “heartland” – President Trump’s 2018 trade war was a popular decision: “We’re going to bring jobs back to our country,” he told voters. Did the tariffs he imposed generate jobs? And what was the impact of the retaliatory tariffs imposed by China? David Dorn talks to Tim Phillips about the recent history of US trade policy, and what this means for Trump 2.0.

Maurice Obstfeld, a seasoned economist with two decades of research on global trade imbalances, dives deep into the intricacies of U.S. trade deficits. He questions popular narratives surrounding trade and job losses, particularly linked to China. The discussion highlights the real causes of these deficits amid the retreat from globalization, exploring the impact of technology on manufacturing. Obstfeld also critiques the proposed tariff solutions during the Trump administration, emphasizing their potential inflationary effects and broader economic consequences.

Margherita Philipp, a data scientist at EconAI, and Hannes Mueller from the Barcelona School of Economics, dive into how AI can revolutionize crisis response. They discuss the promise of anticipatory action for mitigating disasters and the challenges faced in predicting crises, especially those related to climate and conflict. The duo also tackles the balance between explainability and performance in AI forecasting, emphasizing the ethical implications of forecasts in policymaking. Their insights highlight the importance of trust and data in humanitarian efforts.

Michela Carlana, a Harvard researcher, delves into the troubling prevalence of social isolation among children in Italian primary schools. She discusses innovative interventions that equip teachers to recognize and combat exclusion, such as creating 'friendship maps' to pinpoint social connections. The impact of these strategies extends beyond academics, positively influencing children's mental health and overall well-being. Michela emphasizes the importance of fostering inclusivity, especially in post-pandemic classrooms, to support all students.

The discussion dives into how Turkish exporters are capitalizing on reduced competition after international sanctions on Russia. It reveals how businesses navigate the complex landscape of logistics and payment amidst geopolitical tensions. The podcast examines the switch from using the dollar to the Turkish lira for trade invoicing, highlighting the nuanced market dynamics. Additionally, it explores the risks and reputation challenges faced by firms engaging with Russia, illustrating the intricate balancing act in 'trading around geopolitics'.

Frank Elderson, a key figure at the European Central Bank and a leader in climate-related financial risks, delves into how central banks can tackle climate change. He discusses the proactive measures required to integrate climate risks into financial systems and the limitations of monetary policy. Elderson emphasizes the urgent need for greater climate finance and the vital role of institutions like the NGFS in fostering sustainable financial practices. Insights from recent discussions at COP29 highlight massive investment needs to meet global climate goals.

Massimo Morelli, a Professor at Bocconi University and co-author of the influential paper 'Populism and War', dives into the effects of populism on global relations. He explains how populist leaders, like Donald Trump, can elevate the risk of conflict, particularly through policies that prioritize national interests over international cooperation. Morelli reveals intriguing insights into unexpected conflict hotspots, such as Ghana and South Africa, while shedding light on the complexities of trade wars and their socio-economic impacts.

How do men think they should behave? How important is it to dominate, to win, to control women, or to refuse help? How do views on this correlate to economic performance, to men’s physical and mental health, even to politics? Ralph De Haas and Victoria Baranov are two of the authors of research into what masculinity means around the world. They tell Tim Phillips about the surprising differences they discovered.

Bank branches are closing rapidly as banking activity migrates online. What are the consequences, for the public, for a bank’s business customers, or the wider economy? Niklas Amberg and Bo Becker tell Tim Phillips about the unintended consequences for Sweden’s small businesses – and economic activity – of removing face-to-face banking.