VoxTalks Economics

How do criminals choose the weapons they carry, the number of accomplices, the types of business they target? Economists have long argued that decisions to commit economic crimes are strategic, based on a calculation of risk and reward.  The Italian justice system changes the punishment for a crime depending on how it is committed, and so a new analysis of thieves and their crimes, based on data from Milan, tests whether this is really the case. Giovanni Mastrobuoni of the University of Turin, Collegio Carlo Alberto and CEPR is one of the authors of this research. He talks to Tim Phillips about the economics of crime, the problems of collecting data about illegal acts, and Turin’s most famous gold heist. 

Stéphane Carcillo, an OECD economist, delves into the persistent gender wage gap in advanced economies and its complexities. He reveals how vital firms' roles are in combating wage discrimination. The discussion highlights the impact of pay transparency legislation, illustrating how it can transform negotiations for women. Carcillo also addresses the hurdles smaller businesses face in implementing these measures and emphasizes the urgency of organizational policies that promote equitable pay and challenge societal stereotypes.

Marianne Bertrand, a Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School, dissects the surprising reluctance of Japanese men to take paternity leave. She reveals how entrenched cultural norms and employer pressures contribute to this trend despite generous policies. Bertrand shares insights on innovative solutions, including an engaging anime aimed at reshaping perceptions around paternity leave. This creative approach not only highlights the issues but also offers potential pathways for change in societal attitudes towards fatherhood in Japan.

Barbara Petrongolo, a Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford, dives deep into the complexities of gender inequality in the labor market. She discusses the paradox of women advancing in education yet still facing significant disparities at work. The conversation highlights how biases in early education can shape gender dynamics in fields like math. They also explore the impact of remote work during the pandemic on career progression for women and challenge societal norms that perpetuate these gaps, suggesting that understanding could lead to economic growth.

In this discussion, Pelin Ozgul, a researcher from the University of Maastricht, delves into how AI can enhance training for call center agents, ultimately boosting productivity. Nathan Vieira from Aix Marseille University analyzes the effectiveness of short-time work schemes in Europe, emphasizing the intricate relationships between employers, employees, and government. Deepakshi Singh of the University of Groningen examines the effects of droughts on female employment in India, questioning if an increase in jobs signifies true empowerment or merely a survival strategy. A thought-provoking exploration!

Michele Ruta, an economist at the International Monetary Fund and editor of 'The State of Globalisation,' delves into the evolving landscape of global economic flows. He explains how these flows are being redefined rather than retreating and discusses the implications for trade policies and industrial strategies. Ruta highlights the concept of tariff jumping investments and the rise of connector countries as key players in modern supply chains. He also addresses the complexities of U.S.-China trade dynamics and the importance of adaptability in an uncertain global market.

Morgane Richard, a Stanford researcher specializing in remote work's effects on housing markets, shares insights on how the shift to working from home has reshaped housing preferences. She explores the surge in demand for larger homes outside urban centers as people seek more space due to flexible work arrangements. The discussion highlights economic disparities, with non-remote workers bearing the brunt of rising costs, and underscores the need for policy changes to address the inequalities created in the housing market. It's a compelling look at the new dynamics of home buying in a post-Covid world.

Steve Davis, an expert from the Hoover Institution and SIEPR, dives into the shifts in work patterns post-pandemic. He contrasts the pre-Covid stigma of remote work with its current acceptance and discusses how hybrid models are reshaping employee preferences. Davis highlights the demographic changes fueled by the flexibility in work arrangements and the implications for job security. He also addresses management challenges in maintaining team dynamics remotely and emphasizes the need for strong communication skills as the labor market adapts.

If we focus on the cutting edge of AI implementation, we’re also focusing on a small set of technologically advanced countries. How will AI affect work in the rest of the world, what should those countries do to prepare, and how can they make best use of the technology? Giovanni Melina of the IMF is one of the authors of two papers that calculates both the exposure of jobs to AI around the world, and the readiness of those countries to meet the challenge of using AI effectively at work.  He talks to Tim Phillips about the extent of the exposure to AI in emerging markets and developing countries, whether those countries have the infrastructure to implement applications of the technology, and the policies that would be most effective to increase their preparedness. 

 In the second of special series recorded live at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum 2025, we are asking, how good is AI at doing real-world job task? And how can we measure their capability without resorting to technical benchmarks that may not mean much in the workplace? Since we all became aware of large language models, LLMs scientists have been attempting to evaluate how good they are at performing expert tasks. The results of those tests can show us whether LLMs  can be useful complements to our work, or even replacements for us, as many fear. But setting or grading a test to decide whether an LLM can do a problem-solving job task, rather than solve an abstract problem, isn't easy to do.  Maria del Rio-Chanona, a computer scientist at UCL, tells Tim Phillips about her innovative work-in-progress, in which she asks an LLM to set a tricky workplace exam, then tells another LLM to take the test – which a third LLM evaluates.