Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Ricardo Reis is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a returning guest to the podcast. Ricardo rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank swap lines, the importance of fiscal sustainability, and the outlook for inflation in advanced economies. David and Ricardo also discuss safe asset alternatives, and how to think about inflation, debt, and deficits in a more nuanced way. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Ricardo's Twitter: @R2Rsquared Ricardo's LSE profile: https://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/ Related Links: *Central Bank Swap Lines* by Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis https://voxeu.org/article/central-bank-swap-lines *Central Bank Swap Lines During the Covid-19 Pandemic* by Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis https://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers/20-covicbswaps.pdf *The Constraint on Public Debt When r https://iepecdg.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/mpkrg-201112.pdf *Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment* by Jens Hilscher, Alon Raviv, and Ricardo Reis https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20339/w20339.pdf *The New Global Financial Safety Net: Struggling for Coherent Governance in a Multipolar System* by Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2946452 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Robert Kaplan is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Previously, he was a professor and Associate Dean at Harvard Business School, and prior to that was a Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs. Robert is a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to discuss the Fed's new framework, inflation, interest rates and more. Specifically, David and Robert talk about COVID's impact on FOMC operations, how demographic trends are impacting productivity, the Fed's expanding balance sheet, its average inflation targeting framework, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Robert's Twitter: @RobSKaplan Robert's Dallas Fed profile: https://www.dallasfed.org/en/fed/bios/kaplan.aspx David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Daniel Griswold is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center and a nationally recognized expert on trade and immigration policy. Dan is also a returning guest is to the podcast, and joins Macro Musings to talk about immigration policy and the outlook for trade policy with the new Biden Administration. Specifically, David and Dan discuss the major demographic decline in the US, and how greater levels of immigration and can solve many of America's economic concerns. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Dan's Twitter: @danielgriswold Dan's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/daniel-griswold Related Links: *More Immigration Needed to Offset COVID-19 and America's Demographic Decline* by Daniel Griswold https://www.mercatus.org/publications/trade-and-immigration/more-immigration-needed-offset-covid-19-and-america%E2%80%99s-demographic *Half a Million Fewer Children? The Coming COVID Baby Bust* by Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine https://www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/ *World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights* by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division at the United Nations https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf *The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050* by Joel Kotkin https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/298866/the-next-hundred-million-by-joel-kotkin/9781101195703 *Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios for 195 Countries and Territories from 2017 to 2100: A Forecasting Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study* by Stein Emil Vollset et al. https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext *Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy* by Douglas Irwin https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Sam Bell is the policy director of Employ America, a think tank dedicated to having the economy run at full employment levels. Sam is also known on FOMC Twitter as an influencer when it comes to nominations for the Board of Governors. Sam returns to Macro Musings to talk about what 2021 likely has in store for the Fed. Specifically, Sam and David discuss Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida's vision for temporary price level targeting, the prospects of Jay Powell and Lael Brainard (and others) for the next Fed chair, the significance of Janet Yellen's treasury secretary appointment, and the political pressures facing the Fed in 2021. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Sam's Twitter: @sam_a_bell About Employ America: https://employamerica.org/about/ Related Links: *Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment* by Ben Bernanke, Michael Kiley, and John Roberts https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pandp.20191082 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Caleb Watney is the director of innovation policy at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) and he joins Macro Musings to talk about his recent piece, *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* and the reasons why we should all be techno-optimists. Specifically, David and Caleb discuss greater skilled immigration, further government R&D spending, innovative energy solutions, and more as ways to help repair an economy plagued by secular stagnation. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Caleb's Twitter: @calebwatney Caleb's PPI profile: https://www.progressivepolicy.org/people/caleb-watney/ Related Links: *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* Caleb Watney https://www.agglomerations.tech/cracks-in-the-great-stagnation/ *The Egghead Gap* by Caleb Watney https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-egghead-gap *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180338 *Is the Rate of Scientific Progress Slowing Down?* by Tyler Cowen and Ben Southwood https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cEBsj18Y4NnVx5Qdu43cKEHMaVBODTTyfHBa8GIRSec/edit *The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies* by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25148/w25148.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Scott Sumner, Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center, discusses the Princeton School of Macroeconomics and strategies for overcoming inflationary fears with David Beckworth. They explore the contributions of Princeton economists, central bank credibility, and unconventional monetary policy approaches. Sumner also touches on fixing the yen to the dollar and challenges to traditional views on interest rates.

Josh Galper is the managing principal at Finadium, an independent consultancy in capital markets, and is deep in the trenches of the money markets, as well as the financial regulatory space. As a returning guest to the podcast, Josh rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the big changes we might see in financial regulation, especially as it relates to climate issues under the new Biden administration. David and Josh also discuss the prospects of negative interest rates in the US, the influence of the Financial Stability Board, and how to deal with Treasury and repo market stress in the future. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Josh's Twitter: @Finadium Josh's Finadium profile: https://finadium.com/josh-galper-mba/ Related Links: *Fed Joins Central Bankers Backing Paris Climate Goals* by Martin Arnold https://www.ft.com/content/008a12d2-7736-4db0-af9c-e063a0bcdd7a *Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System* by the Climate Market Risk Subcommittee, Mark Risk Advisory Committee of the CFTC https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/9-9-20%20Report%20of%20the%20Subcommittee%20on%20Climate-Related%20Market%20Risk%20-%20Managing%20Climate%20Risk%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Financial%20System%20for%20posting.pdf *Fixing Financial Data to Assess Systemic Risk* by Greg Feldberg https://www.brookings.edu/research/fixing-financial-data-to-assess-systemic-risk/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

As a tumultuous, virus-stricken 2020 comes to an end, David is joined by Macro Musings producer Marc Dupont to discuss the highlights of the show throughout the past year. Specifically, they talk about the big macroeconomic themes and takeaways from the last 12 months, which guests and topics were most popular among listeners, what 2020 may have in store for monetary policy, and more. A special thank you to all of the Macro Musings listeners around the globe who continue to tune in to the show week in and week out, especially during these tough and uncertain times. Stay tuned for more exciting content as we turn a new page in 2021. David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Marc's Twitter: @marc_c_dupont Related Links: Top 10 Macro Musings Episodes in 2020: Adam Tooze on Dollar Dominance, the Eurozone, and the Future of Global Finance - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/adam-tooze-on-dollar-dominance-the-eurozone-and-the-future-of-global-finance Jim Tankersley on the State of the Middle Class and How to Boost Economic Growth - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-tankersley-on-the-state-of-the-middle-class-and-how-to-boost-economic-growth Eric Sims on New Keynesian Modelling and the Future of Macroeconomics in a Low Interest Rate Environment - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/eric-sims-on-new-keynesian-modelling-and-the-future-of-macroeconomics-in-a-low-interest-rate-environment Paul Schmelzing on the 'Suprasecular' Decline of Global Real Interest Rates - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/paul-schmelzing-on-the-suprasecular-decline-of-global-real-interest-rates Nathan Tankus on Public Finance in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Consolidated Budget Balance View and Its Implications for Policy - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/nathan-tankus-on-public-finance-in-the-covid-19-crisis-a-consolidated-budget-balance-view-and-its-implications-for-policy Brad Setser on Addressing the Global Dollar Shortage and COVID-19's Implications for Worldwide Trade Imbalances - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/brad-setser-on-addressing-the-global-dollar-shortage-and-covid-19s-implications-for-worldwide-trade-imbalances Matthew Klein on Global Trade, Inequality, and International Conflict - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/matthew-klein-on-global-trade-wealth-inequality-and-international-conflict Jim Bianco on Policy Responses to the Coronavirus: Details, Implications, and Concerns Moving Forward - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-bianco-on-policy-responses-to-the-coronavirus-details-implications-and-concerns-moving-forward Jon Sindreu on Global Financial Flows and the Balance of Trade - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jon-sindreu-on-global-financial-flows-and-the-balance-of-trade Scott Sumner on How Central Banks Should Respond to the Coronavirus Threat - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/scott-sumner-on-how-central-banks-should-respond-to-the-coronavirus-threat

Jeanna Smialek covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for The New York Times, and joins Macro Musings to recap and summarize the highs and lows of US monetary policy during 2020. Specifically, David and Jeanna discuss the recent histories of Federal Reserve rate hikes and the persistence of low inflation, the nascent optimism about the economy at the start of 2020, the Fed's policy response to COVID, and what lessons the Fed will be taking into the future. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jeanna's Twitter: @jeannasmialek Jeanna's New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/jeanna-smialek Related Links: *Janet Yellen's Lift Off (CMFA Working Paper No. 001)* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2020/12/04/janet-yellens-lift-off-cmfa-working-paper-no-001/ *Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants* by Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-11.pdf David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research affiliate with the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he re-joins Macro Musings to talk about the European Central Bank's big strategy review, the future of the Euro, and whether change is afoot in our international monetary system. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Ethan's Twitter: @ilzetzki Ethan's website: https://www.ilzetzki.com/ Related Links: *Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.nber.org/papers/w26760 *Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/will-the-secular-decline-in-exchange-rate-and-inflation-volatility-survive-covid-19/ Centre for Macroeconomics Panel of Experts Surveys: https://cfmsurvey.org/surveys Register for the AEA's 2021 Virtual Annual Meeting: https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/ *Ethan Ilzetzki on the US Dollar as an Anchor Currency* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/56-ethan-ilzetzki-on-the-us-dollar-as-an-anchor-currency David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/