Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Matt Yglesias is the co-founder of Vox, a senior correspondent who focuses on politics and economic policy, and a returning guest to the podcast. Matt once again joins Macro Musings to discuss his new book, *One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger.* Specifically, David and Matt talk about how to reinvigorate the economy; through enacting better housing and transportation policies, dramatically increasing immigration, reviving America’s forgotten cities, and more. Finally, they also discuss the Fed’s new average inflation targeting regime, and what kind of direction the Fed will take over the new few years.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Matt’s Twitter: @mattyglesias Matt’s Vox profile: https://www.vox.com/authors/matthew-yglesias Matt’s podcast: https://www.vox.com/the-weeds   Related Links:   *One Billion Americans: The Case For Thinking Bigger* by Matt Yglesias https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/636499/one-billion-americans-by-matthew-yglesias/   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Shruti Rajagopalan is a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center where she leads the programs Indian Political Economy Research and the Emergent Ventures India. Shruti joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the past, present and future of the Indian economy. Specifically, Shruti and David discuss India’s mid-20th century experiment with socialism, subsequent reforms from 1980 through the 2000s, and how further reforms to manufacturing and to land and labor markets can accelerate its economic development.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Shruti’s Twitter: @srajagopalan Shruti’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/shruti-rajagopalan Shruti’s podcast, *Ideas of India*: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/https://www.mercatus.org/tags/ideas-india   Related Links:   *India Grows at Night* by Gurcharan Das https://www.amazon.com/India-Grows-At-Night-Liberal/dp/0670084700   *In India, Don’t Hate the Matchmaker* by Shruti Rajagopalan https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-02/netflix-s-indian-matchmaking-is-only-too-accurate   *It’s Chiefly Rent Seekers Who Oppose Our Farm Reforms* by Shruti Rajagopalan https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/it-s-chiefly-rent-seekers-who-oppose-our-farm-reforms-11601304066126.html   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Roberto Perli is a partner and the head of global policy at Cornerstone Macro and is formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Roberto joins Macro Musings to discuss the Fed’s new average inflation targeting framework and what it means for monetary policy, markets, and the economy going forward. Specifically, David and Roberto also discuss the current vague nature of FOMC forward guidance, the challenges and credibility concerns of AIT, and how to further improve the Fed’s framework in the future.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Roberto’s Twitter: @R_Perli Roberto’s Cornerstone Macro profile: https://www.cornerstonemacro.com/people/   Related Links:   FOMC September meeting press release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200916a.htm   *Temporary Price-level Targeting: An Alternative Framework for Monetary Policy* by Ben Bernanke https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2017/10/12/temporary-price-level-targeting-an-alternative-framework-for-monetary-policy/   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Megan Greene is a global economist and Senior Fellow at Harvard University School, and Eric Lonergan is an economist and macro fund manager at M&G Investments. Both Megan and Eric are returning guests of the show, and they re-join Macro Musings to discuss dual interest rates and the potential power it brings to central banks. Specifically, they discuss the current constraints on central banks’ toolkit, how the example of the ECB targeting TLTRO’s illustrates the potential of dual interest rates, why the concern over fiscal versus monetary policy is misunderstood, and whether the Fed’s new average inflation targeting mandate can be successfully implemented.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Megan’s Twitter: @economistmeg Megan’s website: https://economistmeg.com/about/ Megan’s Financial Times archive: https://www.ft.com/megan-greene   Eric’s Twitter: @ericlonners Eric’s blog: https://www.philosophyofmoney.net/ Eric’s M&G Investments profile: https://www.mandg.co.uk/investor/fund-managers/eric-lonergan/   Related Links:   *Dual Interest Rates Give Central Banks Limitless Firepower* by Eric Lonergan and Megan Greene https://voxeu.org/article/dual-interest-rates-give-central-banks-limitless-fire-power   *A Misplaced Faith in the Power of Central Banks* by Greg Ip https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-misplaced-faith-in-the-power-of-central-banks-11583256163   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Thorvald Grung Moe is a 30 year veteran is of the Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, and has also worked in the Norwegian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, and the IMF. Thorvald joins Macro Musings to talk about Marriner Eccles and a paper he has written on him title, *Marriner Eccles in the 1950 Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bankers.* David and Thorvald specifically discuss Eccles’ views on countercyclical monetary policy and government finance, his role in reforming and centralizing the Fed, and the many other lessons that can be learned from his life, particularly in the realm of macroeconomics.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Thorvald’s Twitter: @finstab Thorvald’s Levy Economics Institute profile: http://www.levyinstitute.org/scholars/thorvald-grung-moe   Related Links:   *Marriner S. Eccles and the 1951 Treasury – Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bank Independence* by Thorvald Grung Moe http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_747.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Carolyn Sissoko is an associate professor of economics at the University of the West of England, and she has written widely on shadow banking, money markets, and the plumbing of the financial system. Carolyn joins Macro Musings to talk about the evolution of money markets over the past few decades, and its implication for both monetary and fiscal policy. Specifically, David and Carolyn discuss the collateral supply effect, the consequences of moving from LIBOR to SOFR, and solutions to other money market concerns.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Carolyn’s Twitter: @csissoko Carolyn’s UWE Bristol profile: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko   Related Links:   *The Collateral Supply Effect on Central Bank Policy* by Carolyn Sissoko https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3545546   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Robin Harding is the Tokyo Bureau chief for the Financial Times. Until 2015, he was based in Washington D.C., covering the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the IMF for the Financial Times. Robin Macro Musings to talk about the Japanese economy, Abenomics, and the evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies over the past decade. Specifically, Robin and David discuss what the Bank of Japan’s point inflation target has in common with the Fed’s average inflation target, how the Bank of Japan found itself on the frontlines of innovation in monetary policy, and what the legacy of Abenomics portends for the future of monetary policy.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Robin’s Twitter: @RobinBHarding Robin’s Financial Times profile: https://www.ft.com/robin-harding   Related Links:   *Six Abenomics Lessons for a World Struggling with ‘Japanification’* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/9f4b1656-95a2-41e0-9c86-70f5b063796d   *Abe’s Tenure Marked by Trade Successes and Thwarted Ambitions* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/125378c8-073c-41b6-9aef-42b985c24784   *Leave Public Debt Worries for Another Day* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/691cb9f4-b53d-4429-bba4-03ca623c0077   *Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound* by Michael Woodford https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf?sm=jh083112-4   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins again to talk about his views on the Fed’s new framework and his recent book titled, *The Menace of Fiscal QE.* Specifically, David and George discuss the Fed’s quantitative easing evolution, and how the move to a floor system helped pave the way for fiscal QE to become a more popular policy in the present.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin   Related Links:   *The Menace of Fiscal QE* by George Selgin https://www.cato.org/books/menace-fiscal-qe   *Mission Creep at the Fed* by Greg Ip https://www.wsj.com/articles/mission-creep-at-the-fed-11598461446   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Macro Musings is back with another bonus episode, as Sam Bell and Skanda Amarnath (Employ America) are joined by Julia Coronado (Macro Policy Perspectives) and David Beckworth (Macro Musings) to talk through the announcement of the Fed’s framework transition towards average inflation targeting. Specifically, this panel of guests discuss the implications of moving to an average inflation targeting regime, whether the shift may cause credibility problems for the central bank, how to continue to improve the Fed’s toolkit, and more.   Special thanks to the Employ America team for allowing us to use their webcast audio for this special Macro Musings bonus content.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Employ America’s Twitter: @employamerica Employ America’s website: https://employamerica.org/ Sam Bell’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell Skanda Amarnath’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher   Julia’s Twitter: @jc_econ Julia’s Macro Policy Perspectives profile: https://www.macropolicyperspectives.com/team   Related Links:   *A New Way to Manage Inflation* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/new-way-manage-inflation   *By Doubling Down On Inflation Targeting, the Fed Is At Risk of Forgetting Lessons from 2008 & 2011* by Skanda Amarnath https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/by-doubling-down-on-inflation-targeting-the-fed-is-at-risk-of-forgetting-lessons-from-2008-2011-f877f78acba2   *Securing Macroeconomic and Monetary Stability with a Federal Reserve–Backed Digital Currency* by Julia Coronado and Simon Potter https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/pb20-4.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Scott Lincicome is a senior fellow in Economic Studies at Cato Institute where he writes on international and domestic economic issues, including international trade, industrial policy and manufacturing and global supply chains. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to discuss what we've learned so far about the so-called China shock and where we are today in the trade war. Specifically, David and Scott discuss the historical rise of Chinese exports, its impact on US labor markets, how certain policies make it harder for US workers to adjust, and whether the Trump administration marks a genuine regime shift in international trade.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Scott’s Twitter: @scottlincicome Scott’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome   Related Links:   *Testing the ‘China Shock’: Was Normalizing Trade with China a Mistake?”*by Scott Lincicome https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/testing-china-shock-was-normalizing-trade-china-mistake#:~:text=However%2C%20champions%20of%20the%20emerging,with%20China%20for%20particular%20scorn.&text=It%20finds%20that%20PNTR%20and,that%20PNTR%20critics%20now%20repeat.   *Clashing over Commerce* by Douglas Irwin https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html   *Audaciously Hopeful: How President Obama Can Help Restore the Pro‐​Trade Consensus* by Dan Ikenson and Scott Lincicome https://www.cato.org/publications/trade-policy-analysis/audaciously-hopeful-how-president-obama-can-help-restore-protrade-consensus   *The 'China Shock', Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis* by Robert Feenstra and Akira Sasahara https://www.nber.org/papers/w24022   *Executive Incentives, Import Restrictions, and Competition* by Brian Blank https://www.mercatus.org/publications/trade-and-immigration/executive-incentives-import-restrictions-and-competition   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/