Macro Musings with David Beckworth

As a tumultuous, virus-stricken 2020 comes to an end, David is joined by Macro Musings producer Marc Dupont to discuss the highlights of the show throughout the past year. Specifically, they talk about the big macroeconomic themes and takeaways from the last 12 months, which guests and topics were most popular among listeners, what 2020 may have in store for monetary policy, and more.   A special thank you to all of the Macro Musings listeners around the globe who continue to tune in to the show week in and week out, especially during these tough and uncertain times. Stay tuned for more exciting content as we turn a new page in 2021.   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth   Marc’s Twitter: @marc_c_dupont   Related Links:   Top 10 Macro Musings Episodes in 2020:   Adam Tooze on Dollar Dominance, the Eurozone, and the Future of Global Finance - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/adam-tooze-on-dollar-dominance-the-eurozone-and-the-future-of-global-finance   Jim Tankersley on the State of the Middle Class and How to Boost Economic Growth - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-tankersley-on-the-state-of-the-middle-class-and-how-to-boost-economic-growth   Eric Sims on New Keynesian Modelling and the Future of Macroeconomics in a Low Interest Rate Environment - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/eric-sims-on-new-keynesian-modelling-and-the-future-of-macroeconomics-in-a-low-interest-rate-environment   Paul Schmelzing on the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline of Global Real Interest Rates - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/paul-schmelzing-on-the-suprasecular-decline-of-global-real-interest-rates   Nathan Tankus on Public Finance in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Consolidated Budget Balance View and Its Implications for Policy - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/nathan-tankus-on-public-finance-in-the-covid-19-crisis-a-consolidated-budget-balance-view-and-its-implications-for-policy   Brad Setser on Addressing the Global Dollar Shortage and COVID-19’s Implications for Worldwide Trade Imbalances - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/brad-setser-on-addressing-the-global-dollar-shortage-and-covid-19s-implications-for-worldwide-trade-imbalances   Matthew Klein on Global Trade, Inequality, and International Conflict - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/matthew-klein-on-global-trade-wealth-inequality-and-international-conflict   Jim Bianco on Policy Responses to the Coronavirus: Details, Implications, and Concerns Moving Forward - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-bianco-on-policy-responses-to-the-coronavirus-details-implications-and-concerns-moving-forward   Jon Sindreu on Global Financial Flows and the Balance of Trade - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jon-sindreu-on-global-financial-flows-and-the-balance-of-trade   Scott Sumner on How Central Banks Should Respond to the Coronavirus Threat - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/scott-sumner-on-how-central-banks-should-respond-to-the-coronavirus-threat

Jeanna Smialek covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for The New York Times, and joins Macro Musings to recap and summarize the highs and lows of US monetary policy during 2020. Specifically, David and Jeanna discuss the recent histories of Federal Reserve rate hikes and the persistence of low inflation, the nascent optimism about the economy at the start of 2020, the Fed’s policy response to COVID, and what lessons the Fed will be taking into the future.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Jeanna’s Twitter: @jeannasmialek Jeanna’s New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/jeanna-smialek   Related Links:   *Janet Yellen's Lift Off (CMFA Working Paper No. 001)* by George Selgin https://www.alt-m.org/2020/12/04/janet-yellens-lift-off-cmfa-working-paper-no-001/   *Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants* by Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-11.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research affiliate with the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he re-joins Macro Musings to talk about the European Central Bank’s big strategy review, the future of the Euro, and whether change is afoot in our international monetary system.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Ethan’s Twitter: @ilzetzki Ethan’s website: https://www.ilzetzki.com/   Related Links:   *Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.nber.org/papers/w26760   *Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/will-the-secular-decline-in-exchange-rate-and-inflation-volatility-survive-covid-19/   Centre for Macroeconomics Panel of Experts Surveys: https://cfmsurvey.org/surveys   Register for the AEA’s 2021 Virtual Annual Meeting: https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/   *Ethan Ilzetzki on the US Dollar as an Anchor Currency* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/56-ethan-ilzetzki-on-the-us-dollar-as-an-anchor-currency   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Governor Benjamin Diokno is the current head of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, or BSP, which is the central bank of the Republic of the Philippines. The Governor joins David on Macro Musings to shed light on the art and science of central banking from an emerging market perspective, as seen through the experience in the Philippines. Specifically, Governor Diokno and David discuss the structure, mandate, and operating system of the BSP, how the BSP has managed to avoid the zero lower bound, the prospects of a Philippine central bank digital currency, and how a flexible exchange rate has helped the BSP hedge against dollar volatility.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Gov. Diokno’s Twitter: @GovBenDiokno Gov. Diokno’s World Bank profile: https://live.worldbank.org/experts/benjamin-e-diokno   Related Links:   Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas website: https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/Default.aspx   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Sam Hammond is the director of poverty and welfare policy at the Niskanen Center and Brink Lindsey is vice president and director of the Open Society Project at the Niskanen Center. Both are returning guests to the podcast, and they join David again on Macro Musings to talk about their new pro-growth report titled, *Faster Growth, Fairer Growth: Policies for a High Road, High Performance Economy.* Specifically, they detail a number of different policies the US government could adopt to achieve faster and fairer economic growth, including social insurance modernization, child allowances, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Sam’s Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam’s Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/samuel-hammond/   Brink’s Twitter: @lindsey_brink Brink’s Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/brink-lindsey/   Related Links:   *Faster Growth, Fairer Growth: Policies for a High Road, High Performance Economy* by Brink Lindsey and Sam Hammond https://www.niskanencenter.org/faster-growth-fairer-growth-policies-for-a-high-road-high-performance-economy/   *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf   *How Asia Works* by Joe Studwell https://groveatlantic.com/book/how-asia-works/   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Founder of Macro Hive and previously worked at JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Nomura. Bilal joins Macro Musings to discuss recent economic developments and the outlook for inflation after the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, Bilal and David discuss the prospects for a K-shaped US recovery, COVID-19’s impact on the Eurozone and the UK, how the launch of the EU’s recovery fund has fared, and how the pandemic has impacted the outlook for the services sector, inflation, and the US dollar.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bilal’s Macro Hive profile: https://macrohive.com/researcher/bilal-hafeez/ Bilal’s website: http://bilalhafeez.com/ Bilal’s Twitter: @bilalhafeez123   Related Links:   *The True Economic Consequences of the COVID Peace* by Bilal Hafeez https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/the-true-economic-consequences-of-the-covid-peace   *EU Enjoys ‘Outrageous Demand’ for First Covid-related Bond* by Tommy Stubbington https://www.ft.com/content/e3553b68-22c8-487c-a7c0-7e1c6dc0ec4b   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Adam Ozimek is the chief economist for Upwork, a global remote freelancing platform, and a returning guest to the podcast. Adam rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the lasting impacts of the pandemic on businesses; specifically its influence on remote work. David and Adam also discuss the results of the payment protection program, why the prime age employment to population ratio should become the most important employment measure, the economic geography of remote work, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Adam’s Twitter: @ModeledBehavior Adam’s website: https://adamozimek.com/   Related Links:   *The Future of Remote Work*by Adam Ozimek https://www.upwork.com/press/releases/the-future-of-remote-work   *COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data* by Erik Byrnjolfsson, John Horton, Adam Ozimek, Daniel Rock, Garima Sharma, and Hong-Yi TuYe https://www.nber.org/papers/w27344   *Where Remote Work Saves Commuters Most* by Adam Ozimek https://www.upwork.com/press/releases/where-remote-work-saves-commuters-most   *When Work Goes Remote* by Adam Ozimek https://www.upwork.com/research/when-work-goes-remote   *How Many Jobs can be Done at Home?* by Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf   *How Many U.S. Jobs Might be Offshorable?* by Alan Blinder https://www.princeton.edu/~ceps/workingpapers/142blinder.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Alan Cole is a senior economist at the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Alan joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his work with the JEC and his thoughts on the economy. Specifically, Alan and David discuss the high savings rate during the COVID-19 crisis, the track record of US monetary policy from the 2008 financial crisis to the 2020 COVID-19 crisis, why the Fed’s commitment to average inflation targeting is an incremental step toward level targeting, and suggestions for the Fed moving forward.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Alan’s Twitter: @AlanMCole   Related Links:   The JEC’s Social Capital Project: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/socialcapitalproject   *Saving and COVID-19* by Alan Cole https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/analysis?ID=754B52C6-04CD-458B-8755-98D1219398F1   *Stable Monetary Policy to Connect More Americans to Work* by Alan Cole https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/analysis?ID=051267FC-0147-4E31-BE80-946E0543AF82    *Bullard May Be More Right Than Wrong* by Tim Duy https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/09/28/bullard-may-be-more-right-than-wrong/   *The Fed’s Mistake* by Adam Ozimek and Michael Ferlez https://www.economy.com/home/products/samples/2018-11-20-Feds-Mistake.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

David French is a senior editor of The Dispatch and has written widely on American politics. David has a new book out on the polarization in the United States titled, *Divided We Fall: America’s Secession Threat and How to Restore our Nation.* He joins Macro Musings for another special presidential election episode to discuss this book as well as what political polarization means for the election, this country, and the economy. Specifically, both Davids talk about the political geography of polarization, the national red state versus blue state dynamics, and how instituting more federalism might be the solution.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   David French’s Twitter: @DavidAFrench David French’s Dispatch archive: https://thedispatch.com/people/5849328-david-french   Related Links:   *Divided We Fall: America’s Secession Threat and How to Restore our Nation* by David French https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250201973   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Michael Strain is the Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and a previous guest of the show. Michael joins Macro Musings for a special presidential election episode to discuss President Trump's economic record and what a Biden presidency might mean for the economy compared to a second term for President Trump. Specifically, David and Michael discuss the presidential candidates’ past records and campaign goals for trade, taxes, regulations, immigration, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Michael’s Twitter: @MichaelRStrain Michael’s AEI profile: https://www.aei.org/profile/michael-r-strain/   Related Links:   The Mercatus Center’s RegData databse:  https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulation/regdata   *The triumph of the Trump tax cuts* by Joshua McCabe https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/522813-the-triumph-of-the-trump-tax-cuts   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/