Net Assessment

Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the Biden administration’s disastrous military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Whose fault is this debacle? What is the manner of our exit doing to America’s credibility, with friends and adversaries alike, around the world? In a year, is anyone going to remember or care what has happened in the last several weeks? Have we learned any lessons from our two decades in Afghanistan, and will there be any accountability for bad decisions made along the way? Zack pushes back on comments made by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan about the withdrawal, Chris calls out the administration’s unwillingness to accept more refugees, and Melanie is grateful for those taking the lead on helping to get refugees settled into new homes.   Gideon Rachman, “Joe Biden’s Credibility Has Been Shredded in Afghanistan,” Financial Times, August 13, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/71629b28-f730-431a-b8da-a2d45387a0c2. Fred Kagan, “Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To,” New York Times, August 12, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html. Joe Biden, “Statement by President Joe Biden on Afghanistan, White House, August 14, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/14/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-afghanistan/. Greg Jaffe, “From Hubris to Humiliation: America’s Warrior Class Contends with the Abject Failure of Its Afghanistan Project,” Washington Post, August 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-hubris-afghanistan-humiliation/2021/08/14/47fb025a-fc67-11eb-9c0e-97e29906a970_story.html. Susannah George, “Afghanistan’s Military Collapse: Illicit Deals with the Taliban and Mass Desertions,” Washington Post, August 15, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/15/afghanistan-military-collapse-taliban/. David E. Sanger and Helene Cooper, “Taliban Sweep in Afghanistan Follows Years of US Miscalculations,” New York Times, August 14, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/14/us/politics/afghanistan-biden.html.  “An incoherent strategy doomed the 20-year US mission in Afghanistan, watchdog says as US withdraws,” CNN Politics, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics/afghanistan-sigar-report/. "Afghans have broken 'shackles of slavery', says Pak PM Imran Khan after Taliban seize power," Times of India, August 16, 2021, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/taliban-has-broken-shackles-of-slavery-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-says/articleshow/85368058.cms. "Last Days in Vietnam: Who Goes? And Who Gets Left Behind?," PBS.org, April 28, 2015, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/lastdays/.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the Pentagon's new concept of "integrated deterrence" and try to divine its meaning and importance. They struggle to differentiate the concept from existing theories of deterrence and conclude that this phrase seems better suited to identifying a problem, rather than describing a solution. Chris encourages listeners to use the Defense Futures Simulator, Melanie applauds Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya for her courage, and Zack commends Lloyd Austin and his team for a successful first trip to Southeast Asia. Links: Oren Liebermann, "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin lays out vision of future in first major speech," CNN, May 1, 2021, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-lays-out-vision-of-future-in-first-major-speech/ar-BB1geVXr?ocid=se. Jim Garamone, "Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence," DOD News, June 2, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2641068/official-talks-dod-policy-role-in-chinese-pacing-threat-integrated-deterrence/. Lloyd Austin, "Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Participates in Fullerton Lecture Series in Singapore," U.S. Department of Defense, July 27, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2711025/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-participates-in-fullerton-lecture-serie/. Kurt Campbell, "The Changing China Debate," Chatham House, August 20, 2020, https://americas.chathamhouse.org/article/the-changing-china-debate/. Babie Latza Nadeau, "D.C. Mayor Muriel Boswer Snubs Her Mask Mandate Within First 24 Hours: Report," Daily Beast, August 1, 2021, https://www.thedailybeast.com/washington-dc-mayor-muriel-bowser-snubs-her-mask-mandate-within-first-24-hours-report-says. Emma Ashford and Erica Borghard, “A mom’s guide to coercion and deterrence,” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, March 16, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/a-moms-guide-to-coercion-and-deterrence/  Erica Borghard, Reality Check #3, “The Uses and Abuses of Deterrence,” New American Engagement Policy Brief, Atlantic Council, March 1, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/reality-check/reality-check-3-the-uses-and-abuses-of-deterrence/  War on the Rocks Defense Futures Simulator, https://www.defensefutures.net/ Ellen Knickmeyer, Lolita C, Baldor, and Matthew Lee, "'Welcome Home': Evacuation Flight Brings 200 Afghans to US," Military.com, July 30, 2021, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/07/30/welcome-home-evacuation-flight-brings-200-afghans-us.html.  Dustin Jones and Joe Hernandez, "Belarusian Sprinter Granted Polish Humanitarian Visa after Refusing Flight Home," NPR, August 3, 2021, https://www.npr.org/sections/tokyo-olympics-live-updates/2021/08/02/1023618626/a-sprinter-seeks-asylum-after-refusing-to-board-a-flight-back-to-belarus-from-to.  Brad Roberts, "On the Need for a Blue Theory of Victory," War on the Rocks, September 17, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/on-the-need-for-a-blue-theory-of-victory/. 

Special guest Chris Dougherty joins Chris and Melanie to discuss his recent War on the Rocks article, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy.” Dougherty notes that “a series of decisions (and indecisions) decades in the making have backed the Navy into a budget and force-planning corner,” and he describes the competing interests that drive different (and rarely complementary) force requirements. What decisions are most needed in order to get the Navy back on the right track? And what practical steps can be taken now and in the near future to close the gap between the many demands on the Navy, and the Navy’s capacity to meet those demands? Chris Preble is mad at people who spread malicious misinformation, Melanie laments the decline of human civilization as reflected in the Associated Press’ wrong-headed decision about the plural possessive, and Chris Dougherty gripes about people who gripe about the 2018 National Defense Strategy (but don’t know what they’re talking about). Shoutouts for the Cuban people, Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Wally Funk, and Gen. David Berger, commandant of the Marine Corps.   Links Christopher Dougherty, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy,” War on the Rocks, June 30, 2021  Andrew Restuccia and Sarah E. Needleman, “Biden’s Facebook Attack Followed Months of Frustration Inside White House,” Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2021  Colleen Sinclair, “10 ways to spot online misinformation,” The Conversation, March 27, 2020 (Updated September 17, 2020)

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Samuel Charap's article, "Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US-Russia Policy." Does the United States need to "gird itself for sustained competition" with Russia? What kind of leverage does the United States have in negotiating with Putin? How can the United States best work with allies who have very different interests and challenges when it comes to dealing with Russia? Chris gives a shout out to those who push this country to be better, Zack thanks the Republicans who bravely voted for a 1/6 committee, and Melanie praises some defenders of capitalism.    Links Samuel Charap, “Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US Russia Policy,” War on the Rocks, May 14, 2021 David M. Herszenhorn, "Summit Exposes Stark Clash of EU Views on Russia," Politico, June 25, 2021 Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, "Russia Policy Puts Biden Under Pressure Across Europe," Foreign Policy, June 25, 2021 Timothy Frye, "The Perilous Bargains that Keep Putin in Power," Foreign Affairs, April 2021 Xi Jinping, "Speech at a Ceremony Marking the Centenary of the Communist Party of China," CGTN, July 01, 2021 Kristin Wilson and Clare Foran, "Only Two House Republicans Vote for the January 6 Select Committee," CNN, June 30, 2021 A. Wess Mitchell, "Biden Is Falling Into the Same Trap With Europe as Obama," Foreign Policy, June 30, 2021 “Slow Burn: The Road to the Iraq War,” Slate Podcast “Rep. Adam Kinzinger on the Moral Failture of Republicans and the Big Lie,” New York Times, July 05, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack dig into Marcus Willett’s “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack” in the latest issue of Survival. They explore the distinction between cyber espionage and cyber defense (Was it an attack? Or a hack? Does it matter?), consider the implications of the offense-defense balance (Is 100 percent defense feasible?), and review possible global norms that can be put in place to limit the harm caused by malicious cyber actors. Melanie and Chris both have grievances toward members of Congress who are reluctant to revisit old Authorizations for Use of Military Force , and Zack gripes about Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s absurd op-ed in the Washington Post. And this week’s attafolks were all in the family: Zack welcomed a new niece named Marlowe; Melanie cheered her amazing older brother, David, a renowned physician and educator at the Mayo Clinic; and Chris gives a shout out to his daughter Katelyn —- and all members of the Class of 2021.     Marcus Willette, “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack,” IISS, March 31, 2021   Trey Herr, et al “Broken Trust: Lessons from Sunburst,” Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Atlantic Council Stephen Miles, Twitter, June 21, 2021 Dmitri Alperovitchand Ian Ward, "How Should the U.S. Respond to the SolarWinds and Microsoft Exchange Hacks?," Lawfare, March 12, 2021 "Critical Infrastructure Sectors," S. Department of Homeland Security Imran Khan, "Pakistan is Ready to be a Partner for Peace in Afghanistan, but We Will Not Host US Bases," Washington Post, June 21, 2021

The Net Assessment team debates Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr's recent study on "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way" written for the Lowy Institute. Chris, Melanie, and Zack agree that the study is thought provoking and well argued, but disagree about whether it is ultimately convincing. Nonetheless, Porter and Mazarr have made a real contribution by helping to clarify the assumptions that underlie different approaches to the Taiwan. Chris gives a shout out to the Bridging the Gap effort, Melanie complains about John Cena and Bing, and Zack commends his former colleague Ari Tabatabai.   Links Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way," Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021 Irene Braam and Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, "Transatlantic Trends 2021," German Marshall Fund of the United States and Bertelsmann Foundation, June 2021 Oriana Skylar Mastro, "The Taiwan Temptation," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021 Charles L. Glaser, "Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China," Foreign Affairs, April 28, 2021 Ariane M. Tabatabai, No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran's National Security Strategy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020),  Dustin Walker, "Congress Should Rewrite the Pentagon's Pacific Deterrence Budget Request," Defense News, June 2, 2021 Joe Biden, “My Trip to Europe Is about America Rallying the World’s Democracies,” The Washington Post, June 5, 2021 Martin Pengelly, “Biden Trumpets Democracy in Post Op-ed – As Threats Spread at Home,” The Guardian, June 6, 2021 Bridging the Gap “Future Foreign Policy: Global Perceptions of the United States, Featuring Caroline Gray,” June 16, 2021, Noon EDT Tom Karako, “Sing, Missile Muse, of Gods and Heroes: America’s Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names,” War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021 Jill Disis, “‘F9’ Star John Cena Says He Loves China After Taiwan Remark Stokes Anger,” CNN, May 25, 2021 Elizabeth Braw, “Spying on Allies is Normal. Also Smart,” Politico EU, June 4, 2021. Syaru Shirley Lin, “It’s Not Just China: Population, Power Generation, Political Polarization, and Parochialism are Also Long-Term Threats to Taiwan’s Success and Survival,” PRC Leader, June 1, 2021 “China’s Growing Military Confidence Puts Taiwan at Risk,” Economist, May 1, 2021 Blake Herzinger, “US Ditching Taiwan Commitments is a Dead-End Idea,” Foreign Policy, May 3, 2021 Paul Mozur, “Microsoft’s Bing Briefly Blocked ‘Tank Man’ on Anniversary of Tiananmen Anniversary,” New York Times, June 5, 2021

Using Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz's Foreign Affairs article "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation" as a basis for discussion, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about President Joe Biden's "foreign policy for the middle class." Who, exactly, is in the "middle class"? Are certain positions on foreign policy pro- or anti-middle class? Is there a connection between the domestic programs the administration is pushing and a better foreign policy? Is it possible to evaluate whether our foreign policy is working for the average American? Zack gives a shoutout to people who can disagree on important issues and still be friends, Melanie wishes the people who make the rules would follow them, and Chris praises two scholars for a new report on Taiwan.   Links Daniel Drezner, "Real Talk about a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Washington Post, May 20, 2021 Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz, "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2021 Salman Ahmed, Wendy Cutler, et al., "Making Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 23, 2020 Jake Sullivan, "What Donald Trump and Dick Cheney Got Wrong about America," The Atlantic, December 13, 2018 Antony Blinken, "A Foreign Policy for the American People," U.S. Department of State, March 3, 2021 Kirk Siegler, "Why Support for Refugees in Higher Than You Might Think in Parts of 'Trump Country,' NPR, May 11, 2021 Brian Slodysko, "As Pandemic Spread Pain and Panic, Congressman Chased Profit," AP, May 21, 2021 Mackenzie Eaglen and Dov S. Zakheim, "The White House Should Show Their Cards Earlier: Reveal the Defense Budget Passback Guidance," War on the Rocks, May 21, 2021 Dan Baer, "Tracking Biden's Progress on a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, April 6, 2021 Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, “Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way,” Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021 Craig Hooper, “Despite Promises, USS Ford Heads to Shock Trials With 4 Broken Elevators,” Forbes, May 13, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss Frank Hoffman’s recent War on the Rocks essay, “U.S. Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” which makes the case for adjusting U.S. strategic objectives in light of flat or declining Pentagon budgets over the next few years. While the Pentagon might intend “to implement the 2018 National Defense Strategy as if the pandemic and recession never happened,” Hoffman explains, we “should evaluate US national security strategy under much more austere defense spending scenarios.” And now we can. As it happens, War on the Rocks, in partnership with the American Enterprise Institute and Center for Strategic & International Security, has just rolled out a clever online budgeting tool that allows users to design their own defense strategies according to a wide range of criteria. Be sure to check it out. Grievances include gun violence and big bugs (cicadas), and for Joe Biden wanting to take away drug maker patents. Shout outs to Liz Cheney, the G-7’s proper stance on Taiwan, and the World Health Organization and think-tank transparency — and a special attaboy for Producer Tre, the hardest working dude in the podcast universe.   Links Frank Hoffman, “US Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, April 20, 2021 Caroline Multerer, “#100: Create an Office of Gun Violence Prevention in the Department of Homeland Security,” Atlantic Council, April 29, 2021 Eli Clifton and Ben Freeman, “Restoring Trust in the Think Tank Sector,” Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, May 10, 2021 Defense Futures Matthew Lesh, "'Stakeholder Capitalism' Caused the Oxford Vaccine Debacle," Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2021 Afshin Molavi, "Globalization in a Needle," Substack, April 30, 2021 Robert Work, "Storm Clouds Ahead: Musings about the 2022 Defense Budget," War on the Rocks, March 30, 2021 Charles Q. Brown, Jr. and Gen. David H. Berger, "Redefine Readiness or Lose," War on the Rocks, March 15, 2021 Nike Ching, "G-7 Countries Back Taiwan's Observer Status in World Health Assembly," VOA News, May 5, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. They discuss the argument made by Meghan O'Sullivan and Richard Haass that the Biden administration should have kept a small force in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, but question whether that would have been sufficient to accomplish U.S. objectives. Chris also issues a warning to virtue signalers, Zack calls for more virtue signaling with India, and Melanie is aggrieved by the election of Iran to the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women.   Meghan L. O'Sullivan and Richard Haass, "It's Wrong to Pull Troops Out of Afghanistan. But We Can Minimize the Damage." Washington Post, April 16, 2021 Richard Fontaine, "The Case Against Foreign Policy Solutionism," Foreign Affairs, February 8, 2021 Eliot A. Cohen, "Exit Strategy," The Atlantic, April 13, 2021 Afghanistan Study Group, "A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan," United States Institute of Peace, February 3, 2021 Soner Cagaptay, "Biden Recognizing the Armenian Genocide Shows How Far Turkey and Erdogan Have Fallen," NBC News, April 24, 2021 Stephen Wertheim, “Biden Just Made a Historic Break with the Logic of Forever War,” Foreign Policy, April 16, 2021 Oren Liebermann, Ellie Kaufman and Devan Cole, “Nearly 40% of Marines Have Declined Covid-19 Vaccine,” CNN, April 10, 2021 Senior Fellow, New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council Robert Manning, “Reality Check #5: Learning to Live with a Nuclear North Korea,” New American Engagement Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council, April 26, 2021 Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan," White House, April 14, 2021 Michael Crowley, "Biden Officials Place Hope in Taliban's Desire for Legitimacy and Money," New York Times, April 23, 2021 "UK Parliament Declares Genocide in China's Xinjiang; Beijing Condemns Move," Reuters, April 23, 2021 Michael Lipin, Ramin Haghjoo, "Iran's Election to UN Women's Body Draws Outrage from Rights Activists, US Silence," VOA News, April 24, 2021 John Bew, Citizen Clem, (London: Riverrun, 2016) Future Foreign Policy Series: Featuring Wendy Cutler on US Trade Policy, May 17, 2021, 12:00PM, Atlantic Council (via Zoom)