Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Thomas Spoehr’s article “The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the U.S. Defense Budget.” How should we assess whether the defense budget is adequate (or excessive) for its purposes? Do we ask our military to fulfill too many purposes? Will the new Congress and administration be willing to make politically unpopular cuts, even if those changes might result in long-term savings and enhanced effectiveness? If being $27 trillion in debt isn’t slowing our spending on either defense or domestic priorities, will anything? The gang has a lightning round on the good, the bad, and the ugly in the Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Finally, Chris praises José Andrés for stepping up to feed the hungry, Melanie is frustrated with how Democrats handled former President Donald Trump’s impeachment, and Zack has warm wishes for those entering the Joe Biden administration.    Links Thomas Spoehr, “The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the US Defense Budget,” War on the Rocks, January 14, 2021 Kelsey Vlamis, "Pelosi Says Democrats Will Move to Impeach Trump This Week if Pence Doesn't Respond to Calls to Invoke the 25th Amendment," Business Insider, January 12, 2021 Connor O’Brien, “On Defense Spending, a Democratic Brawl is Brewing,” Politico, October 28, 2020 Janelle Griffith, “Texas School District Opens Free Grocery Store to Help Disadvantaged Students,” Today, January 4, 2021 Sydney Freedberg, “NDAA: Conference Cuts New Army Tech, Pluses Up Old,” Breaking Defense, December 4, 2020 “Defense Strategy: Revised Analytic Approach Needed to Support Force Structure Decision-Making,” GAO, March 14, 2019 "America's Strategic Choices: Defense Spending in a Post-COVID-19 World," Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Ronald Reagan Institute, January 2021 "Getting to Less - Exploring the Press for Less in America's Defense Commitments," CSIS, February 6, 2020 Rebecca Speare-Cole, "3 or 4 Republicans Don't Think Joe Biden Won Election Legitimately: Poll," Newsweek, January 18, 2021 “The Militarized Budget 2020,” National Priorities Project, June 22, 2020 'First Platoon' Examines How War On Terror Birthed Military Biometrics ID System, NPR, January 14, 2021 “Feeding an Army in D.C.: Chef José Andrés Steps in to Help Feed Huge Influx of National Guard,” Los Angeles Times on MSN, January 17, 2021 Donate: World Central Kitchen Restaurant Employee Relief Fund

Chris, Melanie, and Zack begin the show with a sober look at the events of Jan. 6, when a pro-President Donald Trump mob ransacked the Capitol and drove legislators from both chambers. In the ensuing chaos, four people lost their lives. How did this happen? And what can possibly be done to set things right? All three hosts agree that it begins with holding the enablers accountable. But, tragically, our political system today punishes those who stand on principle and facts, and rewards demagogues peddling falsehoods. With that out of the way, the three discuss Amb. (ret.) Michael McFaul’s analysis of the Cold War’s lessons for policy toward China. In the end, McFaul urges U.S. policymakers to adopt a “complicated, nuanced path” toward China, combining “sustained confrontation and cooperation, containment and engagement, [and] isolation and integration.” But can the United States actually execute such a sophisticated strategy? Or do American domestic politics drive us toward extremes and overreach? Shout outs for the Washington Football Team and a Twitter sensation who makes old pictures even more beautiful. Zack and Chris bash Trump and his Republican enablers. Links Michael McFaul, “Cold War Lessons and Fallacies for US-China Relations Today,” The Washington Quarterly, December 11, 2020 “Pentagon Insists US Military Will Only Interfere in Foreign Elections,” Duffle Blog, January 4, 2021 Lisa Mascaro and Mary Clare Jalonick, “More GOP Lawmakers Enlist in Trump Effort to Undo Biden Win,” Associated Press, January 2, 2021 Michael McFaul, "Xi Jinping is Not Stalin," Foreign Affairs, August 10, 2020 Lauren Tarshis, I Survived the Battle of D-Day, (Scholastic, 2019) Marina Amaral, Tweet, January 04, 2020 “Could China Seize and Occupy Taiwan Militarily?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 26, 2020 Amy Gardner and Paulina Firozi, “Here’s the full transcript and audio of the call between Trump and Raffensperger,” The Washington Post, January 5, 2021 Yuval Levin, “Failures of Leadership in a Populist Age,” National Review, January 4, 2021 Odd Arne Westad, “The Sources of Chinese Conduct: Are Washington and Beijing Fighting a New Cold War?” Foreign Affairs, (September/October 2019) "Abraham Lincoln’s Address Before the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois," Libertarianism, January, 27, 1838  

Chris, Melanie, and Zack end the year with a special episode of Net Assessment where they do a deep dive into their favorite films and television series. They discuss their favorite spy movie, World War II film, a movie that inspired their career, and one that is good for teaching.   Chris No Way Out A Bridge Too Far Holland’s Opus Crimson Tide Melanie The Bureau Band of Brothers Law and Order Glory Black Hawk Down Zack Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy Saving Private Ryan Clear and Present Danger Thirteen Days Dr. Strangelove

Melanie, Chris, and Zack wrap up 2020 by reviewing developments over the last year and debating what might happen in 2021. They disagree over the wisdom of Lloyd Austin's nomination for secretary of defense, and discuss which of Donald Trump's foreign policy decisions were the best and worst over the last year. Each also highlights their favorite books and articles, and notes profiles in both courage and cowardice.  Links Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, “Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia,” Washington Quarterly, Winter 2020. Jim Golby, "Sorry, Gen. Lloyd Austin. A Recently Retired General Should Not Be Secretary of Defense," New York Times, December 7, 2020 Kishore Mahbubani, Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, (Public Affairs, 2020) Ana Swanson, “With Americans Stuck at Home, Trade with China Roars Back,” New York Times, December 14, 2020 Alex Ward, “The Single Biggest Foreign Policy Decision Joe Biden Faces,” Vox, December 14, 2020 Joe Biden, “Why I Chose Lloyd Austin as Secretary of Defense,” The Atlantic, December 8, 2020 Australian Government Department of Defense, "2020 Defense Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan," July 2020

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss Joshua Rovner’s recent War on the Rocks article, “Intelligence in the Biden Administration.” Rover argues that President-elect Joe Biden should immediately rebuild relations with the intelligence agencies. How can he go about doing that in difficult political circumstances and after years of them being treated with contempt during the Donald Trump administration? What role does Congress have in ensuring our intelligence agencies are functioning properly? How will Biden use the intelligence community to enhance U.S. security and prosperity? The crew also wonders why, with other national security team members in place, Biden has not yet named a secretary of defense. Finally, Chris surprises us with a promise to make a holiday dessert, Melanie has some praise for those working on vaccines, and Zack gives a shout out to the Bombshell podcast hosts as their amazing show ends.    Links Joshua Rovner, "Intelligence in the Biden Administration," War on the Rocks, November 25, 2020 Robert Jervis, "Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash," Political Science Quarterly, November 02, 2010 Samantha Lee, "Moderna's Groundbreaking Coronavirus Vaccine Was Designed in Just Two Days," Business Insider, November 26, 2020 Rosa Brooks, "It's Time for a Woman to Run the Defense Department," The New York Times, November 30, 2020 Christopher Krebs, "Trump fired me for saying this, but I'll say it again: The election wasn't rigged," The Washington Post, December 1, 2020 Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, "Pentagon Purges Leading Advisors From Defense Policy Board," Foreign Policy, November 25, 2020 Zack Cooper, "Bad Ideas Series: 'Great Power Competition' Terminology," Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 1, 2020 Brad Stapleton, “The Problem with the Light Footprint: Shifting Tactics in Lieu of Strategy,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 792, June 7, 2016 Paul R. Pillar, “Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006

The crew convenes for the first show after Joe Biden’s election victory to consider how Americans want to engage with the rest of the world, and whether the incoming Biden administration will be able to heal the nation’s wounds while also restoring U.S. global leadership. Does an inward focus on the COVID-19 pandemic, a sluggish economy, and racial tensions necessarily mean that the United States will neglect the wider world? Or can it lead by example, proving that by solving its own problems it can help solve global problems as well? And in our polarized political environment, does it even make sense to talk about “Americans” as a unified whole? Or do differences between Republicans and Democrats, young and old, or rich and poor, prevent U.S. policymakers from crafting and executing a consistent and coherent approach to the world? Grievances abound for Republican elected officials’ collective unwillingness to acknowledge Biden’s victory, and attaboys to the American people for turning out to vote in historic numbers, and to the media for covering the vote-counting carefully and cautiously. And Melanie offers a heartfelt attagirl to her beloved niece Miri who is fighting a serious disease with grace and spirit. (Be warned: It’s a tear-jerker!)   Links: Jonathan Monten, Joshua Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, Dina Smeltz, and Jordan Tama, "Americans Want to Engage the World," Foreign Affairs, November 3, 2020 Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Brendan Helm, “Divided We Stand: Democrats and Republicans Diverge on US Foreign Policy,” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, September 17, 2020 Mark Hannah and Caroline Gray, "Diplomacy & Restraint the Worldview of American Voters," Eurasia Group Foundation, September 2020 “About Those Polls…,” The Daily, November 12, 2020 Maggie Haberman, Michael D. Shear, Maggie Astor and Peter Baker, “Republicans Are Split over Whether to Call the Election Over,” New York Times, November 8, 2020 Kaelen Deese, “Hogan Congratulates Biden, Harris on Election Victory: 'Everyone Should Want Our President to Succeed,'” The Hill, November 7, 2020 Christopher Preble, “The Biden Administration Can Both Look Inward and Provide Leadership on the Global Stage,” Atlantic Council, November 9, 2020 Aaron Mehta, "Where President-Elect Joe Biden Stands on National Security Issues," Defense News, November 8, 2020 Elisabeth Braw, "Defense Spending and What We Can Learn from Sweden," On the Cusp Podcast, November 2, 2020 Myhre Syndrome

Bryan McGrath rejoins the Net Assessment team to discuss the U.S. Navy's Battle Force 2045 proposal. Bryan, Melanie, Chris, and Zack agree that the proposed 500 ship force is a fantasy that will not be fully funded. But they express optimism that these plans will provide useful starting points for deeper thinking about the Navy's future force. Chris launches an email etiquette crusade, Zack complains about sexism in defense reporting, Bryan commends the name of the Navy's first guided missile frigate, and Melanie urges everyone to vote.   Links "Secretary of Defense Remarks at CSBA on the NDS and Future Defense Modernization Priorities," Department of Defense, October 6, 2020 Megan Eckstein, "SECDEF Esper Calls for 500-Ship Fleet by 2045, With 3 SSNs a Year and Light Carriers Supplementing CVNS," USNI News, October 6, 2020 Bryan McGrath, "Deterring War, Conducting War, Ending War: What Seapower Does," CDR Salamander Blog, August 26, 2020 Bryan McGrath, Twitter, October 16, 20 Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt, "A Trump Victory May Push His Defense Secretary Out an Open Door," New York Times, October 23, 2020 David B. Larter, "S. State Department to Allow Sale of Hundreds of Anti-Ship Missiles to Taiwan Amid Diplomatic Row," Defense News, October 26, 2020 Brandon Valeriano, Twitter, October 18, 2020 Harlan Ullman, “Battle Force 2045 Raises Important Questions,” US Naval Institute Proceedings, October 2020 Ronald O’Rourke, “Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, October 7, 2020 Ronald O’Rourke and Michael Moodie, “S. Role in the World: Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, Updated August 26, 2020 Mark Montgomery, "Is Esper's New Plan for the Navy Enough for the Indo-Pacific?", War on the Rocks, October 21, 2020 Emily Oster, "Schools Aren't Super-Spreaders," Atlantic, October 9, 2020 Jay Nordlinger, "Trump and Dictators," National Review, October 20, 2020

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about U.S. nuclear policy. Should the United States have a "no first use" policy? If so, would that affect choices our allies and partners, as well as adversaries, might make? Has the volatile presidency of Donald Trump shown that more checks are needed in the nuclear weapons launch process?   Chris gives a shout out to those Americans already waiting in long lines to vote, Zack applauds Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley for clearly stating that the military has no place in resolving the outcome of an election, and Melanie is happy to see an increasing number of countries condemning the human rights atrocities in China.   Links William J. Perry and Tom Z. Collina, "Who Can We Trust with the Nuclear Button? No One," New York Times, June 22, 2020 Masakatsu Ota, "Japanese Nuclear Policy After Hiroshima, After Abe, and After Nov. 3," War on the Rocks, September 14, 2020 Christianna Silva, " Mark Milley Says The Military Has 'No Role' In Elections," NPR, October 11, 2020 “Emma Ashford and Erica Borghard Join the Atlantic Council,“ Atlantic Council, October 5, 2020 Julia Jones, “Inside the Plot to Kidnap Gov. Whitmer,” CNN, October 11, 2020 Jason Morris, Nick Valencia, Annie Grayer and Marshall Cohen, “Massive Lines Mar Start of In-Person Early Voting in Georgia,” CNN, October 13, 2020

Why is America’s global influence in decline? And what can be done to get it back? In a recent study, the RAND Corporation’s James Dobbins, Gabrielle Tarini, and Ali Wyne, trace the former unipolar power’s struggles to several factors, but point chiefly to "the classic cycle of hubris followed by nemesis." A sequence of "success, overconfidence, overstretch, failure, and retreat," they write, explains how "domestic politics, foreign policy, and external events interacted to diminish American influence." Chris, Melanie, and Zack appreciated the effort, but had some questions. The study’s attempt to score American successes and failures dating back to 1945 falls flat, but the global public’s reactions to these efforts isn’t in dispute: the United States isn’t trusted to solve the world’s problems, and many worry that it is making things worse. What can be done to reinvigorate Americans’ global engagement, and win back the trust of allies and partners? And who will take the lead in getting us back on track? Zack praises FBI director Chris Wray for doing his job, and Chris and Melanie give shout outs to acts of human decency.   Links: James Dobbins, Gabrielle Tarini, Ali Wyne, “The Lost Generation in American Foreign Policy,” RAND, September 2020 Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Brendan Helm, "Divided We Stand," Chicago Council on Global Affairs, September 17, 2020 "US election: Trump Won't Commit to Peaceful Transfer of Power," BBC News, September 24, 2020 Devlin Barrett, "FBI Director Affirms Russia’s Aim to ‘Denigrate’ Biden Ahead of Election," The Washington Post, September 17, 2020 Eliott C. McLaughlin, “Portland Protests Remain Largely Peaceful Until Night Falls and Police are Targeted, Authorities Say,” CNN, September 28, 2020 Ryan Bergeron, “A 72-Year-Old Woman was Quietly Living in a Dilapidated House. Then an Electrician Sparked a Community to Help Her Rebuild,” CNN, September 24, 2020 “Unsung Heroes 2020,” The Atlantic Council Scott Lincicome, "It's Time We Had a Talk about Tariffs," The Dispatch, September 29, 2020