Net Assessment

Zack, Chris, and Melanie get together to discuss the latest Space Threat Assessment report from the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. People all over the world are ever-more dependent on assets in space for normal activity in their daily lives, but there are few rules of the road in place to manage space behavior. Will it be possible to develop a system of cooperation that allows for freedom of movement in space but also protects the economic and national security of all countries? Should we be concerned about the rapid growth of private satellites and related equipment in space? Secretary of Defense Austin said that "Space is already an area of great power competition." Given the interests of China, Russia, and the United States in space, are we heading into a space arms race? Chris has an attaboy for a thrilling victory at the Kentucky Derby, Zack remembers a friend who has departed too soon, and Melanie doubles down on America. Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/out-of-this-world/

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the National Defense Strategy — at least the unclassified details that are currently available. Does the professed strategy align with the budget? What, if anything, appears to be new and different in the Biden team's approach? And what does it say that strategy documents are being rewritten but budget decisions have already been made? Chris laments student loan forgiveness. Melanie thanks some departed leaders. And Zack congratulates academics heading into government service.

Chris and Zack are joined by special guest co-host, Emily Harding of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The three review the Biden administration's latest responses to the crisis in Ukraine before turning to the issue of information security, both in the U.S. government and in the private sector. What information is, and should be, classified? And are we striking the right balance between keeping government secrets secret, and ensuring that private information about customers and users is well protected? Emily has a grievance about the apparent poisoning of Ukrainian peace negotiators and Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, and the subsequent response by U.S. officials who seemed to cast doubt on the story. For the second show in a row, Zack has a grievance toward Chris, and Chris is cold and cranky because his March Madness bracket was busted after the first weekend. Attapeople to the U.S. intelligence community for strategically releasing information that reset the terms of the debate over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Emily gives a shout-out to working mother and Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson for being an inspiration to other working moms. And Chris praises his colleagues Emma Ashford and Kelly Grieco. For this episode's reading, check out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/keeping-the-right-secrets-secret

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. They explain what has been surprising to each of them thus far in the conflict. Why has Russia struggled so mightily? Why has Ukraine fought so effectively? And why have the United States, Europe, and other democracies been so united? Most importantly, what are possible pathways to end the war? Chris commends all those helping Ukrainian refugees in these desperate times, Melanie gives attagirls to her mom and sister, and Zack has a grievance with the now-unretired Tom Brady. For episode reading, go to: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/russias-war-in-ukraine-how-does-this-end

On a somber day, Chris, Melanie, Zack, ponder the implications of the war in Ukraine. What, if any, lessons should we take away from the inability to deter Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine? With the war now raging, what measures should be employed to help the Ukrainians and complicate Russian war aims — and what should be held back? What are the escalation risks? Are broad-based economic sanctions likely to be effective, and under what circumstances might they be lifted? And what does the post-Ukraine world look like, especially in terms of Europe's defense posture? A grievance for the second show in a row toward Vladimir Putin (obviously), and to those in the Twitterverse attempting to use the crisis as an opportunity to score ideological points. Melanie scolds those Republicans who attended a white nationalist conference and talks about what they mean for of House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy. A hearty attaboy to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who has shown remarkable courage and resolve under pressure, to Kenya's Ambassador to the United Nations, Martin Kimani, for an inspiring speech criticizing Russia's attempt to redraw borders by force, and to international sports leagues for shunning Russia. For this episode's reading, check out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-taunt-what-are-you-going-to-do-about-it

Melanie, Chris, and Zack sit down to talk about the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy, which was released last week as the national security advisor was warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why did the administration push to get this report out so quickly? Is there anything new here, or does it just continue the policies of the last few administrations? Why the lack of direct focus on China, which is causing so much trouble in the region? What does "integrated deterrence," which is the foundation of the security piece of the strategy, mean? Will crises in Ukraine and elsewhere distract the Biden national security team from accomplishing its objectives in the Indo-Pacific? Chris has some problems with Vladmir Putin, Zack has some kind words for a departing colleague, and Melanie thanks Rep. Luria for pushing back on incomprehensible military jargon. For this episode's reading, check out warontherocks.com

As observers in Washington look back at the Biden administration's first year and prepare for its forthcoming national security and defense strategies, the Net Assessment crew debates the virtues of muddling through. Does the Biden team have a grand plan? Does it need one? And are errors of omission worse than those of commission? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate recent articles on muddling through by Josh Rovner, Richard Fontaine, and Anne-Marie Slaughter. Chris gives an attaboy to Tom Brady, since he hasn't won enough already. Melanie issues both a grievance and an attaboy to Newt Gingrich. And Zack hails the wonders of easily available satellite imagery. Links: Joshua Rovner, "How Long can Biden Muddle Through on China?" War on the Rocks, Jan. 26, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/how-long-can-biden-muddle-through-on-china/. Richard Fontaine, "The Case Against Foreign Policy Solutionism," Foreign Affairs, Feb. 8, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-08/case-against-foreign-policy-solutionism. Richard Fontaine, "Washington's Missing China Strategy," Foreign Affairs, Jan. 14, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-01-14/washingtons-missing-china-strategy. Anne-Marie Slaughter, "It's Time to Get Honest About the Biden Doctrine," New York Times, Nov. 12, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/opinion/biden-foreign-policy.html. Amy B. Zegart, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2022), https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691147130/spies-lies-and-algorithms. Stacie L. Pettyjohn, "Spiking the Problem: Developing a Resilient Posture in the Indo-Pacific with Passive Defenses," War on the Rocks, Jan. 10, 2022. Dustin Walker, "The Pentagon is in Desperate Need of an Intervention from the Top," War on the Rocks, Jan. 27, 2022. Joe DiPaolo, " Newt Gingrich Says January 6 Committee Members 'Face a Real Risk of Jail' if Republicans Win the House," Mediaite, Jan. 23, 2022. Liz Harrington, Tweet, Jan. 30, 2022. Newt Gingrich, Tweet, Jan. 26, 2022. The Hill, Tweet, Jan. 26, 2022. Stephen Breyer, "Why Regulation Rarely Achieves the Goals It Is Designed to Serve," PBS Commanding Heights (no date). Jeff Darlington and Adam Schefter, "Tom Brady retiring after 22 seasons, seven Super Bowl wins with New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sources say," ESPN, Jan. 29, 2022, https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33173652/tom-brady-retiring-22-seasons-seven-super-bowl-wins-new-england-patriots-tampa-bay-buccaneers-sources-say. Dustin Volz, "Vast Troves of Classified Info Undermine National Security, Spy Chief Says," Wall Street Journal, Jan. 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/vast-troves-of-classified-info-undermine-national-security-spy-chief-says-11643286602. Oona Hathaway, "Keeping the Wrong Secrets: How Washington Misses the Real Security Threat," Foreign Affairs (January-February 2022), https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2021/12/14/keeping-the-wrong-secrets/content.html. Patrick G. Eddington and Christopher A. Preble, "Bad Idea: Overclassification," Defense360, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dec. 6, 2019, https://defense360.csis.org/bad-idea-overclassification/. Mathew Burrows and Evan Cooper, "Engagement Reframed #1: Vaccinate the world," New American Engagement Initiative, Feb. 1, 2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/engagement-reframed/vaccinate-the-world/.

The Net Assessment crew assesses President Joe Biden's foreign policy in his administration's first year. There appear to have been more failures than successes, and Chris, Melanie, and Zack debated why that might be. But, as Frank Gavin explains in the lead essay at the Texas National Security Review, a bit of perspective is in order. Crafting and executing foreign policy is difficult, even for a seasoned hand like Biden. To the extent that the promise of his approach to the world hasn't lived up to reality, how much of that can be tied to his vision (is there one?), how much to poor execution, and how much to other factors over which the president has no control? Zack is annoyed with all the talk of a looming civil war in the United States, and Melanie gripes about the New York Times' coverage of a transplant patient who was the recipient of a pig's heart. Chris (with an assist from Melanie) faults newly-inaugurated Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin for wanting to make it easier to spend taxpayer money on a new stadium for the Washington Football Team. Attaboys to one of the first Tuskegee Airman, Gen. Charles McGee, who passed away at the age of 102, and to Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota for standing up to Trump. Links: Quick! Get your free COVID-19 tests! https://special.usps.com/testkits Frank Gavin, "How Are They doing?" Texas National Security Review, Vol. 5, Iss. 1, Winter 2021/2022. Mike Sweeney, "NATO, Diplomacy, and the Ukraine Crisis," Wavell Room, Jan. 10, 2022. David Leonhardt and Ashley Wu, "Good Morning. We look at Omicron's toll in New York and Seattle, two cities with timely data," The Morning, New York Times, Jan. 11, 2022. Daniel W. Drezner, "The Policy Gap in the Indo-Pacific," Washington Post, Jan. 12, 2022. Anjali Dayal, Alexandra Stark, and Megan A. Stewart, "Warnings of 'Civil War' Risk Harming Efforts Against Political Violence," War on the Rocks, Jan. 18, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/warnings-of-civil-war-risk-harming-efforts-against-political-violence/. Harrison Smith, "Charles McGee, Tuskegee Airman who fought in three wars, dies at 102," Washington Post, Jan. 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2022/01/17/charles-mcgee-tuskegee-airman-dead/. Alex Tabarrok, Twitter, January 13, 2022. Mary Clare Jalonik, "Rounds Dismisses Trump Criticism for Saying He Lost Election," Associated Press, Jan. 10, 2022. Richard Fontaine, "Washington's Missing China Strategy," Foreign Affairs, Jan. 14, 2022.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the massing of Russian troops near Ukraine's eastern border and the Biden administration's efforts to deter Putin from invading Ukraine. What is Putin's motivation for the actions of the last several months? Are the Biden team's threats of crippling economic sanctions in the case of an invasion credible? How will the different interests of individual NATO allies affect what President Joe Biden is able to promise in upcoming discussions? Could our handling of this potential crisis make it more likely that China will try to take Taiwan? Chris has some thoughts on media coverage of Omicron, Zack wishes Donald Trump would stop praising leaders with authoritarian tendencies, and Melanie laments that the Biden administration has still not developed an economic strategy for Asia. Links: Josh Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, "Acting Too Aggressively on Ukraine May Endanger It—and Taiwan," Washington Post, Dec. 23, 2021. Kori Schake, "Russia's Aggression in Ukraine Is Backfiring," The Atlantic, Dec. 29, 2021. "Purdue Sends Message to China," Wall Street Journal, Dec. 17, 2021. Yuka Hayashi, "US on Sidelines as China and Other Asia-Pacific Nations Launch Trade Pact," Wall Street Journal, Jan. 1, 2022. Francis J. Gavin, "Is Team Biden Winning?", Texas National Security Review, Dec. 30, 2021. Andrew Kramer, Steven Erlanger, and David Sanger, "Russia Lays Out Demands for a Sweeping New Security Deal with NATO," New York Times, December 17, 2021. Michael Kofman and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, "The Myth of Russian Decline," Foreign Affairs, Oct. 19, 2021. Michael Crowley and Julian E. Barnes, "How Far Would Biden Go to Defend Ukraine Against Russia?", New York Times, Nov. 25, 2021. Sauli Niinisto, New Year's Speech, Presidentti.fi, Jan. 1, 2022. Michael Crowley, "Biden Stand on Ukraine is a Wider Test of US Credibility Abroad," New York Times, Dec. 16, 2021. Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Handssler, and Nicole Gaouette, "House Lawmakers Push Biden Administration to Do More to Deter Russian Aggression against Ukraine," CNN, Dec. 14, 2021. Mark Cancian, "What Would it Take to Defend Ukraine? Potentially, Billions of Dollars," Breaking Defense, Dec. 7, 2021. Jennifer Millman, "NY COVID Hospitalizations Top 2021 Surge Levels; Omicron Quintuples Risk of Breakthrough Cases," NBC New York, Jan. 3, 2022, https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-covid-hospitalizations-top-2021-surge-levels-as-omicron-drives-95-of-cases/3476250/. "Future Foreign Policy series featuring Ambassador Robert Zoellick," New American Engagement Initiative, Jan. 19, 2022, 12:00 p.m. ET, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ffp-series-featuring-ambassador-robert-zoellick/.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate U.S. global posture. How can the National Defense Strategy bring resources and requirements into alignment? With the Defense Department having just completed its global posture review, is Bob Work right that the U.S. Navy needs to shed its attachment to presence? Is Bryan McGrath correct that the answer is more resources? Or can new approaches — like the Marine Corps' A Concept for Stand-in Forces — square this circle? Chris and Zack hope their holiday presents will include a clear U.S. strategy on China. Melanie hopes for a nuclear power revolution. And all three wish listeners a happy holiday season. Links: Jim Garamone, "Biden Approves Global Posture Review Recommendations," DOD News, Nov. 29, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2856053/biden-approves-global-posture-review-recommendations/. U.S. Marine Corps, "A Concept for Stand-In Forces," December 2021, https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/142/Users/183/35/4535/211201_A%20Concept%20for%20Stand-In%20Forces.pdf?ver=MFOzu2hs_IWHZlsOAkfZsQ%3d%3d. Robert O. Work, "A Slavish Devotion to Forward Presence Has Nearly Broken the U.S. Navy," Proceedings, December 2021, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/december/slavish-devotion-forward-presence-has-nearly-broken-us-navy. Bryan McGrath, "What Is The Navy For?," The Conservative Wahoo, Dec. 1, 2021, https://conservativewahoo.substack.com/p/what-is-the-navy-for. Mara Karlin, The Inheritance: America's Military After Two Decades of War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2021), https://www.brookings.edu/book/the-inheritance/. Christopher A. Preble, "The Cold War Navy in the Post War World," Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 195, Aug. 2, 1993, https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa195.pdf. "The Discreet Charm of Nuclear Power," The Economist, Nov. 13, 2021. CDR Salamander, "The Global Posture Review: Strategic Vapor Lock," Substack, Nov. 30, 2021. Jack Detsch, "'No Decisions, No Changes': Pentagon Fails to Stick Asia Pivot," Foreign Policy, Nov. 29, 2021. Dan Lamothe, "After Extraordinary Sacrifice—and Years of Delay—Alwyn Cashe Gets His Medal of Honor," Washington Post, Dec. 15, 2021.