The Net Assessment team debates Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr's recent study on "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way" written for the Lowy Institute. Chris, Melanie, and Zack agree that the study is thought provoking and well argued, but disagree about whether it is ultimately convincing. Nonetheless, Porter and Mazarr have made a real contribution by helping to clarify the assumptions that underlie different approaches to the Taiwan. Chris gives a shout out to the Bridging the Gap effort, Melanie complains about John Cena and Bing, and Zack commends his former colleague Ari Tabatabai.   Links Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way," Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021 Irene Braam and Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, "Transatlantic Trends 2021," German Marshall Fund of the United States and Bertelsmann Foundation, June 2021 Oriana Skylar Mastro, "The Taiwan Temptation," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021 Charles L. Glaser, "Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China," Foreign Affairs, April 28, 2021 Ariane M. Tabatabai, No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran's National Security Strategy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020),  Dustin Walker, "Congress Should Rewrite the Pentagon's Pacific Deterrence Budget Request," Defense News, June 2, 2021 Joe Biden, “My Trip to Europe Is about America Rallying the World’s Democracies,” The Washington Post, June 5, 2021 Martin Pengelly, “Biden Trumpets Democracy in Post Op-ed – As Threats Spread at Home,” The Guardian, June 6, 2021 Bridging the Gap “Future Foreign Policy: Global Perceptions of the United States, Featuring Caroline Gray,” June 16, 2021, Noon EDT Tom Karako, “Sing, Missile Muse, of Gods and Heroes: America’s Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names,” War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021 Jill Disis, “‘F9’ Star John Cena Says He Loves China After Taiwan Remark Stokes Anger,” CNN, May 25, 2021 Elizabeth Braw, “Spying on Allies is Normal. Also Smart,” Politico EU, June 4, 2021. Syaru Shirley Lin, “It’s Not Just China: Population, Power Generation, Political Polarization, and Parochialism are Also Long-Term Threats to Taiwan’s Success and Survival,” PRC Leader, June 1, 2021 “China’s Growing Military Confidence Puts Taiwan at Risk,” Economist, May 1, 2021 Blake Herzinger, “US Ditching Taiwan Commitments is a Dead-End Idea,” Foreign Policy, May 3, 2021 Paul Mozur, “Microsoft’s Bing Briefly Blocked ‘Tank Man’ on Anniversary of Tiananmen Anniversary,” New York Times, June 5, 2021

Using Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz's Foreign Affairs article "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation" as a basis for discussion, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about President Joe Biden's "foreign policy for the middle class." Who, exactly, is in the "middle class"? Are certain positions on foreign policy pro- or anti-middle class? Is there a connection between the domestic programs the administration is pushing and a better foreign policy? Is it possible to evaluate whether our foreign policy is working for the average American? Zack gives a shoutout to people who can disagree on important issues and still be friends, Melanie wishes the people who make the rules would follow them, and Chris praises two scholars for a new report on Taiwan.   Links Daniel Drezner, "Real Talk about a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Washington Post, May 20, 2021 Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz, "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2021 Salman Ahmed, Wendy Cutler, et al., "Making Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 23, 2020 Jake Sullivan, "What Donald Trump and Dick Cheney Got Wrong about America," The Atlantic, December 13, 2018 Antony Blinken, "A Foreign Policy for the American People," U.S. Department of State, March 3, 2021 Kirk Siegler, "Why Support for Refugees in Higher Than You Might Think in Parts of 'Trump Country,' NPR, May 11, 2021 Brian Slodysko, "As Pandemic Spread Pain and Panic, Congressman Chased Profit," AP, May 21, 2021 Mackenzie Eaglen and Dov S. Zakheim, "The White House Should Show Their Cards Earlier: Reveal the Defense Budget Passback Guidance," War on the Rocks, May 21, 2021 Dan Baer, "Tracking Biden's Progress on a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, April 6, 2021 Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, “Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way,” Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021 Craig Hooper, “Despite Promises, USS Ford Heads to Shock Trials With 4 Broken Elevators,” Forbes, May 13, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss Frank Hoffman’s recent War on the Rocks essay, “U.S. Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” which makes the case for adjusting U.S. strategic objectives in light of flat or declining Pentagon budgets over the next few years. While the Pentagon might intend “to implement the 2018 National Defense Strategy as if the pandemic and recession never happened,” Hoffman explains, we “should evaluate US national security strategy under much more austere defense spending scenarios.” And now we can. As it happens, War on the Rocks, in partnership with the American Enterprise Institute and Center for Strategic & International Security, has just rolled out a clever online budgeting tool that allows users to design their own defense strategies according to a wide range of criteria. Be sure to check it out. Grievances include gun violence and big bugs (cicadas), and for Joe Biden wanting to take away drug maker patents. Shout outs to Liz Cheney, the G-7’s proper stance on Taiwan, and the World Health Organization and think-tank transparency — and a special attaboy for Producer Tre, the hardest working dude in the podcast universe.   Links Frank Hoffman, “US Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, April 20, 2021 Caroline Multerer, “#100: Create an Office of Gun Violence Prevention in the Department of Homeland Security,” Atlantic Council, April 29, 2021 Eli Clifton and Ben Freeman, “Restoring Trust in the Think Tank Sector,” Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, May 10, 2021 Defense Futures Matthew Lesh, "'Stakeholder Capitalism' Caused the Oxford Vaccine Debacle," Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2021 Afshin Molavi, "Globalization in a Needle," Substack, April 30, 2021 Robert Work, "Storm Clouds Ahead: Musings about the 2022 Defense Budget," War on the Rocks, March 30, 2021 Charles Q. Brown, Jr. and Gen. David H. Berger, "Redefine Readiness or Lose," War on the Rocks, March 15, 2021 Nike Ching, "G-7 Countries Back Taiwan's Observer Status in World Health Assembly," VOA News, May 5, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. They discuss the argument made by Meghan O'Sullivan and Richard Haass that the Biden administration should have kept a small force in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, but question whether that would have been sufficient to accomplish U.S. objectives. Chris also issues a warning to virtue signalers, Zack calls for more virtue signaling with India, and Melanie is aggrieved by the election of Iran to the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women.   Meghan L. O'Sullivan and Richard Haass, "It's Wrong to Pull Troops Out of Afghanistan. But We Can Minimize the Damage." Washington Post, April 16, 2021 Richard Fontaine, "The Case Against Foreign Policy Solutionism," Foreign Affairs, February 8, 2021 Eliot A. Cohen, "Exit Strategy," The Atlantic, April 13, 2021 Afghanistan Study Group, "A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan," United States Institute of Peace, February 3, 2021 Soner Cagaptay, "Biden Recognizing the Armenian Genocide Shows How Far Turkey and Erdogan Have Fallen," NBC News, April 24, 2021 Stephen Wertheim, “Biden Just Made a Historic Break with the Logic of Forever War,” Foreign Policy, April 16, 2021 Oren Liebermann, Ellie Kaufman and Devan Cole, “Nearly 40% of Marines Have Declined Covid-19 Vaccine,” CNN, April 10, 2021 Senior Fellow, New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council Robert Manning, “Reality Check #5: Learning to Live with a Nuclear North Korea,” New American Engagement Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council, April 26, 2021 Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan," White House, April 14, 2021 Michael Crowley, "Biden Officials Place Hope in Taliban's Desire for Legitimacy and Money," New York Times, April 23, 2021 "UK Parliament Declares Genocide in China's Xinjiang; Beijing Condemns Move," Reuters, April 23, 2021 Michael Lipin, Ramin Haghjoo, "Iran's Election to UN Women's Body Draws Outrage from Rights Activists, US Silence," VOA News, April 24, 2021 John Bew, Citizen Clem, (London: Riverrun, 2016) Future Foreign Policy Series: Featuring Wendy Cutler on US Trade Policy, May 17, 2021, 12:00PM, Atlantic Council (via Zoom)

Chris, Zack, and Melanie discuss Hal Brands and Charles Edel’s article “A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity.” Is it possible, and is it wise, to construct a grand strategy of democratic solidarity to counter China and Russia? How might the United States and other countries implement this strategy in practice?  Should President Joe Biden host a “summit for democracies,” or would that cause more problems than it would solve?   Melanie criticizes Biden’s infrastructure plan, Zack praises Congress for bipartisan work on the Strategic Competition Act of 2021, and Chris has some tender words for his daughter, Katelyn, as she finishes her time in high school just as she’s spent the last few years — enjoying every moment.   Links Hal Brands and Charles Edel, “A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity,” Washington Quarterly, March 23, 2021 Kori Schake, “The US Doesn’t Know How to Treat Its Allies,” The Atlantic, March 28, 2021 Brian Reidl, “Biden’s Infrastructure Proposal is a Giant Boondoggle,” The Dispatch, April 5, 2021 Michael Wood, Tweet, April 11, 2021 “Strategic Competition Act of 2021,”  U.S. Senate Foreign Relation Committee, April 8, 2021 James Goldgeier and Bruce W. Jentleson, "A Democracy Summit Is Not What the Doctor Ordered," Foreign Affairs, December 14, 2020 Graham Brookie, Tweet, April 11, 2021 “Sharp Partisan Divides in Foreign Policy Priorities,” Pew Research Center, February 23, 2021 Christopher Preble, “Covert Wars, To What End?” War on the Rocks, August 7, 2019 Ted Galen Carpenter and Malou Innocent, Perilous Partners: The Benefits and Pitfalls of America’s Alliances with Authoritarian Regimes (Cato Institute, 2015)

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent War on the Rocks article "Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China." Authors Evan Medeiros and Jude Blanchette tee up key myths surrounding China’s economic growth and foreign policy, and the success or failure of the U.S. strategy of engagement with China. The hosts scrutinize which myths are most widely believed, and which should not be guiding American policy. But they also consider which beliefs are actually true, and which are most important to current and future U.S. policy. A second “attagirl” in a row for Melanie’s niece Sophie, and an “attapeople” to those recently admitted to grad school. Zack has a grievance with the Chinese Communist Party, Melanie gripes about Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s selective outrage over insults on social media, and Chris explains that a ship stuck in the Suez Canal is mostly a problem because of all the bad memes it generates.   Links Evan Medeiros and Jude Blanchette, “Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China,” War on the Rocks, March 19, 2021 Joint Statement on the WHO-Convened Covid-19 Origins Study, U.S. State Department, March 30, 2021  Javier C. Hernandez, "WHO Inquiry on the Pandemic's Origin: What We Know," New York Times, March 30, 2o21 Elizabeth Warren, Tweet, March 25, 2021 Thomas Shugart, "Trends, Timelines, and Uncertainty: An Assessment of the State of Cross-Strait Deterrence," U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 18, 2021 Daniel Drezner, “Searching for Signs of Intelligent Symbolism in the Suez Canal,"The Washington Post Richard Betts, “The Delusion of Impartial Intervention," Foreign Affairs, November 1994 Nicholas Eberstadt, "China's Demographic Outlook to 2040 and Its Implications," American Enterprise Institute, January 2019 Scott Kennedy, Bonnie Glaser, Jude Blanchette, and Matthew Goodman, "We Stand with MERICS," Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 26, 2021

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Joe Biden administration's Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. They commend the administration for issuing the document so early into its tenure, but have questions about the specifics. In particular, the document promises to execute a foreign policy for the middle class, but what this means in practice is less clear. Melanie expresses concern about the vaccine rollout in Europe, Zack congratulates the Quad for its vaccine initiative, and all agree about the need for forthright debate of foreign policy and security issues in the think tank community. Links "Interim National Security Strategic Guidance," The White House, March 2021 "Fact Sheet: The Quad Summit," The White House, March 12, 2021 Salman Ahmed et al., "Making US Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, September 23, 2020 Hal Brands and Zack Cooper, "US-Chinese Rivalry is a Battle Over Values," Foreign Affairs, March 16, 2021 Dan Lamothe, “Army Reviewing Investigation Into Michael Flynn's Dealings with Russia, Foreign Firm,” Washington Post, March 12, 2021 Thomas Escritt and Stephanie Nebehay, "Germany, Italy, France Suspend AstraZeneca Shots Amid Safety Fears, Disrupting EU Vaccinations," Reuters, March 15, 2021 Sheena Greitins, Tweet, March 14, 2021 Anthony Blinken, “Secretary of State Antony Blinken Speech on Foreign Policy,” Rev, March 3, 2021 Joe Biden, “Remarks on America's Place in the World,” The White House, February 4, 2021 "Biden must Learn the Right Lesson from Globalization," Washington Post, March 6, 2021

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss U.S. sanctions programs and how to make them more effective. In a recent War on the Rocks article focused on sanctions, Edward Fishman argues that the United States needs to take a hard look at our economic statecraft. Why have sanctions become the go-to answer to so many foreign policy problems? When should they be used, and when are they least effective? Does the United States have the institutional framework necessary for regular sanctions reviews and reform? Will Joe Biden’s team approach sanctions differently than previous administrations? Chris has thoughts on how members of Congress reacted to Biden’s strikes in Syria, Zack takes a principled position on one of Biden’s nominees, and Melanie welcomes her 13th niece to the world.   Links Edward Fishman, “Make Russia Sanctions Great Again,” War on the Rocks, October 23, 2020 Constance Grady, “How Dolly Parton Became a Secular American Saint,” Vox, February 26, 2021 “US Sanctions 23 Actors with Ties to Venezuelan Oil,” VOA News, January 19, 2021 Peter E. Harrell, “Here’s How Trump Can Make Better Use of Corporate Sanctions,” Foreign Policy, February 5, 2019 Natasha Bertrand, “Biden Readies His First Major Penalties on Russia,” Politico, February 22, 2021 Elizabeth Rosenberg, Peter, Harrell, and Ashley Feng, "A New Arsenal for Competition," Center for a New American Security, April 24, 2020 Eric B. Lorber, "Securing American Interests: A New Era of Economic Power," Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance, February 2017 Juan Zarate, Treasury's War (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013) Josh Rudolph, "Treasury's War on Corruption," Alliance for Securing Democracy, December 22, 2020 Hugh Hewitt, "The GOP should Forgive Neera Tanden," Washington Post, February 20, 2021 Gordon Lubold, Michael R. Gordon, and Andrew Jeong, "US, South Korea Near a Deal Over Cost of U.S. Forces on Peninsula," Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2021 Erica Borghard, “Reality Check #2: Economic Sanctions Should Not always Be the Go-To Foreign Policy Tool,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, February 22, 2021 Erica Borghard, “Reality Check #3: The Uses and Abuses of Deterrence,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, March 1, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack wade into the long-running debate on whether Europe can defend itself (chiefly from Russia), and how hard it should try. In a recent article, Barry Posen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology concludes that Europe is capable of conducting major military operations against a potential Russian attack, and that these capabilities serve as an important deterrent. But others doubt that Europe will ever be able to stand on its own without substantial support from the United States. The ultimate unknown, however, might revolve around how much autonomy the United States is willing to grant to key NATO allies — and how much autonomy they will demand in exchange for greater burden sharing. Zack offers up an atta-doctor/atta-deputy secretary of defense to newly confirmed Kath Hicks, while Chris praises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for showing the way on how schools can reopen. Melanie has a grievance against those who just can’t get along with others, even when they perform random acts of kindness, and Zack throws shade on people who refuse to put their names on major publications.   Links Barry R. Posen, “Europe Can Defend Itself,” IISS, December 3, 2020 Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, “Sovereign Solidarity: France, the US, and Alliances in a Post-COVID World,” Future Europe Initiative, Atlantic Council, November 11, 2020 Adam Weinstein, “What the Afghanistan Study Group Final Report Missed,” Inkstick, February 11, 2021 Laura Meckler, “CDC Defends School Guidelines as Advocates Say They Make It too Hard to Reopen,” Washington Post, February 14, 2021 Evan Braden Montgomery, In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers (Cornell University Press, 2016) Joe Gould, "Senate confirms Hicks as DOD's No. 2," Defense News, February 8, 2021 Anonymous, "To Counter China's Rise, the U.S. Should Focus on Xi," Politico, January 28, 2021 Virginia Heffernan, “What Can You Do about the Trumpites Next Door?”, Los Angeles Times, February 5, 2021 Our World in Data, Coronavirus Vaccinations by Country “Americans and Germans Differ in Their Views of Each Other and the World,” Pew Research, March 9, 2020 Hans Van Der Burchard and America Hernandez, “US-German Tensions Over Russia-Backed Nord Stream 2 Pipeline,” Politico, January 21, 2021 “What Would Happen if America Left Europe to Fend for Itself?”, The Economist, March 14, 2019

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether the United States should pursue primacy. They discuss the Donald Trump administration's "Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific," and compare some of its recommendations with Stephen Wertheim’s recent article on "Delusions of Dominance." They agree that the United States needs to have a national debate to match American resources and objectives, but disagree on how to adjust both elements. Chris both complements and questions the Joe Biden administration for actions during its first weeks in office. Melanie raises a multitude of concerns about Andrew Cuomo. And Zack supports Republicans facing political costs for votes of conscience.   Links Stephen Wertheim, "Delusions of Dominance," Foreign Affairs, January 25, 2021 "House Republican Reckoning," The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2021 Ilan Ben-Meir, "That Time Trump Spent Nearly $100,000 On an Ad Criticizing U.S. Foreign Policy in 1987," BuzzFeed News, July 10, 2015 Daniel J. Ikenson, “Inauguration Day Feels Like Groundhog Day for Buy American,” Cato Institute, January 20, 2021 Jonah Shepp, “America Is Complicit in Yemen Atrocities. Biden Says That Ends Now,” New York Magazine, January 22, 2021 John Glaser, Christopher A. Preble, A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America's Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover), (Cato Institute, 2019)