Beyond Markets

In this engaging conversation, Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, shares his insights on the implications of Trump's tariff threats. He discusses whether these moves are a strategic negotiation tactic or a game changer for global trade. The conversation dives into how U.S.-China trade dynamics might shift, the potential impact on China's economic policies and stock market, and the future trajectory of the yuan amidst these pressures. A fascinating look at the intersection of politics and economics!

​​The market wants to close the year on a high note, with the S&P 500 index’s total year-to-date return exceeding 30%. The consensus estimates around 13% earnings growth for both 2025 and 2026. The futures market implies a Fed funds rate of 3.65% by February next year, an over 100 basis point decline from where it is today. In such circumstances, it’s not hard to imagine the bull market in stocks could keep going, barring an inflation shock.​​Keywords: S&P 500 index, all-time high, earnings growth, interest rate cut, Fed funds rate, deregulation, David Perdue, ambassador to China, Hang Seng indexPast performance and simulations are not reliable indicators of future performance. Returns reflect all ongoing charges excluding transaction fees. All investments have inherent risks, and investors may not recover their initial investment. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

The growing demand for solar power is fueling concern about a looming shortage of silver. But how much of this is fact, and how much is speculation? What does the future hold for this essential metal?Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they dive into the data and uncover the realities of silver’s supply, demand, and its role in energy transition.

The Economist magazine ran a story recently, titled “Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?”. It epitomizes the view that many have taken; although the US economy is only 25% of the world economy, its stock market is 75% of world stock market capitalization. Yet the reasons for this are not without merit. Companies would rather list on the US stock market than those of their home countries. Further tax cuts are likely to happen in the US. And its economy has emerged from the pandemic more powerful than any other. As a case in point, a decade ago the GDP per capita of the United States and Canada were almost the same. This year, that of the US is expected to be $86,000, and Canada’s just $54,000. US economy, stock market, tax cuts, December, strategist S&P 500 index forecasts, Canada, Mexico, BRICs, tariffs, sanctions

The Q3 earnings season is out of the way, US elections resulted in a swift and decisive Republican sweep, and the incoming president has nominated a likely equity-friendly nominee for the post of Treasury Secretary. The ducks still seem to be in a row for a year-end rally, but what tweaks have our strategists made to their calls, and where do they think investors should focus their attention as we head into the final stretch of the year?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, about how the earnings results compared in Europe and the US, and what the dynamics are going forwards. They delve into which cyclical sectors are preferred and Mathieu also explains why some sectors have now fallen out of favour and why others should now be in focus.00:31 Introduction to topic and speaker01:14 Summary of US Q3 earnings season02:33 Summary of Europe Q3 earnings season03:30 Stock price reactions to earnings04:10 Is it too late to join the equity rally?06:47 Why we overweight Financials and prefer US stocks08:06 The reason Industrials remain overweight09:04 Our preference for mid-caps over small-caps10:22 Healthcare moves to Neutral12:10 Thoughts on tech and the Magnificent 712:29 Latest ratings changes on equity sectors14:28 What to take away from the conversation15:18 Closing commentsWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Following the shift in the political landscape, Julius Baer experts expect higher nominal growth driven by both real growth and inflation in the US. Given less room for rate cuts, they anticipate yields to stay higher for longer and Fed funds rate to be above neutral next year. Although it is too early to quantify the consequences of the political shift in terms of trade and fiscal policy, investors now benefit from a better starting point in bond markets.  In this episode of Beyond Markets, Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the near-term outlook and strategy for fixed income going into 2025.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom

The S&P fell 2% last week, but it is still 1.5% higher following the Donald Trump’s victory at the 2024 US presidential election. Serious change looks set to be coming under a second Trump administration. The new administration will implement a libertarian vision, which includes economic freedom, and thus a push for freer markets, and a leaner and more efficient government promised by the new “Department of Government Efficiency” limits the risk of unproductive allocation of capital. On inflation and interest rates, the October consumer and producer price inflation numbers both came out hotter than expected. The most recent initial jobless claims reading was also at the lowest since May. Such developments call into question the narrative that interest rates are going to continue declining at the faster pace expected a few months ago. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The past week has been marked by three major global events: the US presidential election, Federal Reserve meeting and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting in China. In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, breaks down each of these developments and the impact on the global economy and investments.

US stocks surged after Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory — but what does this mean for the future of the markets?In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Asia at Julius Baer, explore their outlook on equities, bonds, and other key asset classes, examining where opportunities and risks may lie ahead.(00:00) - Intro (00:19) - A strong mandate for Trump (01:23) - US equities surge post-results (02:20) - Does the equity bull market have legs? (03:10) - Antitrust on Big Tech - What now? (04:20) - Strong outlook for equities (06:11) - Sharp moves in Treasury yields (08:35) - Will the Fed continue on its interest rate path? (09:40) - The future of an independent Fed and Powell (11:53) - What's driving the Dollar? (13:06) - Impact of tariffs vs. potential bigger fiscal deficit (14:03) - Quick thoughts - Gold, crypto, large/mid-caps, oil & gas, renewable energy,  EVs, healthcare, banks, defence, China, Japan, Germany (20:12) - Summary