Beyond Markets

The 10-year treasury yield is breaking down as it anticipates rate cuts. This is mostly due to a tightening job market, especially for entry-level candidates and young people. We look for a series of rate cuts, starting this week and ending next March. An interesting statistic to note: in the 20 other times since 1980 when the Fed cut at, or near an all-time high in the S&P 500 index, the index was up a year later in every case.Meanwhile, global fund manager interest in China is high, but it’s been so long they’ve looked at that market, that they need time to do their homework before investing. Additionally, a weighted average basket of emerging market currencies recently broke a 14-year downward resistance channel.

As we head towards the end of the year, financial markets are caught between fading growth and expectations regarding monetary policy. How should investors navigate financial markets in the final months of 2025, and where do we see the sweet spots?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Julius Baer’s Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day, what they expect from the Fed and the ECB for the rest of the year, and the current global opportunities for investors, particularly, but not only, in the equity and fixed income space.(00:32) - Introduction of topic and speakers (01:12) - Macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day (02:10) - Asia’s macroeconomic picture (05:05) - Year-end headline research calls (05:39) - Developed-market equity preferences (06:09) - Breaking away from the ‘US only’ mindset (06:42) - Emerging market equity sweet spots (08:26) - Where to find value in fixed income (09:10) - Commodities outlook (11:06) - US dollar set to weaken? (11:46) - Dealing with tariff news (12:45) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we take a closer look at agentic AI, which is no longer just a concept. AI agents are actively reshaping how tasks get done, decisions are made, and content is created. These autonomous systems mark a shift from passive AI models to active agents that can reason, act, and self-improve. We are joined by Manuel Villegas from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.  Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer.

The Nikkei 225 recently reached an all-time high of 43,876, driven by better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, ongoing corporate reforms, and a weaker yen. On September 7, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, triggering a leadership race within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). While political uncertainty may weigh on sentiment in the near term, structural tailwinds continue to support Japan’s long-term investment outlook.This episode is presented by Louis Chua, equities research analyst at Julius Baer.

The rapid pace of China's stock market rally in August has sparked concerns of a market bubble forming, with local regulators mulling measures to curb stock speculation. Are these concerns warranted, and is the end of the rally near?The Renminbi, in the meantime, continues to strengthen against the weakening US dollar, and gold has broken out again, making new all-time highs.Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., share their perspectives in this month's edition of China Conversations.

This week’s episode explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting corporate profitability while reshaping the labour market. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, S&P 500 revenue per worker has climbed 15% after years of stagnation, but entry-level jobs are increasingly under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s focus has now shifted from inflation towards employment. Our economist expects five rate cuts by March 2026, though policy uncertainty and eroded trust keep our 10-year US Treasury yield forecast steady at 4.25%. History offers many examples of presidential overreach, episodes that typically prove temporary. With the Trump administration set to continue for another three and a half years, however, investors may feel compelled to exercise caution and consider diversifying beyond the US and the traditional financial system, including assets such as gold.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly signalled at Jackson Hole that a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting is likely. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Helen Freer talks to Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, about what a resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle would mean for bond markets. They also discuss the current fiscal concerns and the expected impact of tariffs on inflation, both in and outside of the US.(00:32) - Introduction (00:50) - What would the resumption of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed mean for bond markets? (02:27) - What impact will the fiscal concerns have? (03:37) - What duration is currently appropriate in a bond portfolio? (04:32) - What impact might tariffs have on fixed income markets? (07:05) - Is the Fed’s independence really in danger? (08:46) - Should investors consider corporate credit exposure? (09:37) - Would exposure to European corporate bonds also be appropriate? (11:11) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggest potential interest rate cuts, beginning in September. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has returned 30% since its April low, and the Dow Jones Industrials Average made a new high for the first time this year. The Shanghai Composite index has conclusively broken multi-year resistance. On the surface it’s driven by sentiment only, but China’s 10-year government bond yield bottomed in January and has been building a base since then. Government bond yields are often lead indicators. Additionally, a survey also shows a shift in consumer opinions, from very pessimistic to less pessimistic. In other developments, Singapore has replaced Thailand as Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

Investing in private markets has the potential to create long-term value in portfolios. But how can qualified and professional investors navigate the current marketplace? What does the private equity market look like today? Which factors are driving potential opportunities? And where might the risks lie?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Specialists at Julius Baer talks to Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer at the global alternatives firm TPG, to discuss these questions as they evaluate the current landscape and reflect on the potential risks and rewards.(00:30) - Introduction (01:22) - Private equity market landscape (02:38) - Focus on sector frameworks (04:07) - The impact of tariffs (05:27) - Likely level of deal activity in H2 2025 (07:46) - Fund liquidity and distributions to limited partners (09:15) - What private equity can bring to a portfolio (11:21) - The risks investors in private equity should be aware of (13:22) - Innovations: Evergreen structures (15:29) - The question of liquidity (16:55) - Summary and conclusion Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes”. Altman compared the widespread interest over Artificial Intelligence today, to the “tech bubble” of the late 1990s. But, the Magnificent 7 companies’ valuations today are less than half what the top five technology companies were, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.With over 90% of S&P 500 index companies having already reported their Q2 results, earnings growth is settling in at 12.0%, and the consensus forecast of 4.8% for Q3 is starting to look too low. Higher-than-expected July producer prices and nominal retail sales may both be signalling that the full impact of tariffs is yet to come. We expect producers to pass on the increased cost to consumers in the months ahead.