Beyond Markets

In this engaging discussion, Yves Bonzon, Group Chief Investment Officer at Julius Baer, dives into the forces shaping the next decade. He analyzes the normalization of interest rates and the implications for governments facing rising debts. Yves addresses the potential of the AI supercycle and its sustainability compared to the dot-com boom. He also warns of geopolitical risks, particularly stranded assets in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, while providing insights on constructing resilient portfolios amidst these challenges.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, but it also increased its forecast for 2026 GDP, from 1.9% to 2.1%, hardly a rate that would necessitate a long string of further cuts. Multiple forces are pulling the economy in different directions, so the 10-year treasury yield will likely continue to move in the same wide band it’s been in since 2023. Recent local elections have tilted strongly in favour of Democrats, and Trump’s approval ratings are low. It is possible next year’s mid-term elections go strongly in the Democrats’ favour, and the administration has less power than it does now. With economically-sensitive stock market indices like mid and small caps, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 equal-weighted index all breaking to new highs, it’s difficult to be pessimistic.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts Chinese equities are entering 2026 on a strong footing, with policy tailwinds from the upcoming Five-Year Plan expected to sustain momentum despite recent consolidation. While tech-led rallies have dominated, attention is shifting toward domestic consumption as policymakers prioritise demand-side reforms—a potential turnaround for lagging consumer sectors if stimulus materialises.Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over stretched valuations in US tech and AI names underscore the case for diversifying into non-US markets, such as China and Japan. Structural drivers, including a weaker U.S. dollar and gradual yuan appreciation, add to the appeal. On commodities, strong fundamentals and AI-driven demand for industrial metals signal further upside, building on this year’s broad-based rally in materials.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts As 2025 draws to a close, investors are reflecting on a year that tested their emotional discipline – from Liberation Day tariffs to geopolitical events that sent markets into turmoil. What separated those who thrived from those who struggled? In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Helen Freer sits down with Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory at Julius Baer, to discuss what worked well and what worked less well this year, why resisting the urge to react emotionally was crucial, and what lies ahead for 2026. They explore the ongoing AI story and how to diversify exposure along the value chain, the case for reducing USD concentration, and why currencies like the Australian dollar and structured products deserve a closer look as investors position for the year ahead.(00:11) - Introduction (01:22) - The role of Client Coverage and Advisory (02:06) - What worked well in 2025 (03:57) - What didn't go according to plan (05:11) - Why 2025 was so tough to navigate (06:55) - Can the AI story continue in 2026? (09:25) - Reducing USD exposure without sacrificing yield (11:48) - Three levels of diversification (13:25) - How to deploy fresh capital now (15:18) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Recent job cuts among small firms and declining inflation data strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Wall Street predicts a 9% return for the S&P 500 next year, with two technical indicators hinting at even greater gains. The tech sector, particularly companies embracing AI, shows significant share price increases. Historical patterns suggest that tech pullbacks often precede strong rebounds, illuminating possible paths for AI startups amidst competitive pressures.

The podcast dives into the impact of anticipated rate cuts, resulting in a weakening dollar that’s propping up precious metals like gold and silver. Silver's impressive cup-and-handle pattern signals a bullish outlook. On the tech front, Alphabet’s affordable semiconductors are stirring competition with Nvidia. The ultimate goal, however, is Artificial General Intelligence, which poses both exciting prospects and potential risks for humanity.

Louis Chua, an Asia equity research analyst at Julius Baer, dives into Japan's economic transformation driven by the growth-focused policies of its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. He discusses how 'Sanaenomics' is revitalizing investment in infrastructure and tech, alongside a surprising rise in inflation and wage growth. Chua highlights the influence of activist investors on corporate reforms and the positive trends in Q3 earnings. He also examines the impact of a weakening yen and the attractiveness of Japanese bonds for global investors.

The discussion kicks off with a deep dive into the shifting odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut, influenced by recent comments from key policymakers. A tied vote at the upcoming FOMC meeting becomes a real possibility. The conversation touches on the unease in markets driven by high AI spending and signs of a Bitcoin bear market. Additionally, a leaked Ukraine peace proposal raises implications for gold demand. As tech faces layoffs and skeptical growth forecasts, current conditions are compared to past market bubbles, revealing concerning technical patterns.

Joe Dowling, Senior Managing Director at Blackstone and former steward of Brown University's endowment, dives into the evolving landscape of investment strategies. He discusses how hedge funds are becoming a core allocation for resilience, potentially replacing traditional bonds. Joe explains the endowment model's focus on diversification and long-term stability, highlighting the importance of absolute return strategies and multi-strategy funds. He also shares insights on constructing robust portfolios and the democratization of access to private markets.

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve presidents have dampened expectations for a December rate cut, shifting market focus. The tech sector shows a growing split between sustainable businesses and speculative investments. China's stock market thrives on electrification and high-tech exports, attracting foreign investors looking for value. As small-cap stocks struggle with debt sensitivities, insights into AI's energy demands raise concerns about growth sustainability. Meanwhile, consumer spending data highlights resilience amidst uncertain market conditions.