An unprecedented clash between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House last Friday has called into question the strength of the US-Europe relations. Investors are also watching several other key macro events this week – potential additional tariffs from the US on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as China’s “Two Sessions” annual meetings taking place on March 5 and 6. This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

With inflation expectations rising, credit spreads at historical tights, and US Treasury moves dictating market sentiment, how should investors position their portfolios? In this episode, Elaine Ngim, Head of Investment Advisory Singapore at Julius Baer sits down with Jonathan Liang, Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists, Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management and Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer to break down the top-of-mind issues in fixed income markets and the corporate credit landscape today. Key topics include:(01:42) - How inflation expectations impact credit markets (04:32) - The outlook for credit spreads – are we due for a widening? (06:16) - Does investment success hinge on getting the US Treasury view right? (08:22) - The US dollar’s strength and its implications for emerging markets (09:49) - Why active management is critical in volatile bond markets (12:12) - Managing volatility to achieve better risk-adjusted returns (13:03) - The evolving role of CDS (13:40) - Lessons from past market drawdowns (14:38) - Common misconceptions about credit investing (16:25) - Key takeaways for equity-focused investors

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the implications of two European-centric developments – the freshly concluded German Federal Elections which has returned the conservatives to power, and the growing likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Both developments are positive for risk, with equities – in particular, cyclical stocks – likely to benefit. Looking ahead, Nvidia’s Q4 2024 earnings numbers, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price data, are both scheduled for release in the coming week. Whether they meet, miss or beat will determine if markets can end February on a positive note.

European stock markets have excelled so far this year but to what extent does this reflect the continent’s economic health and what is the outlook for investing in Europe going forward? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about how he expects inflation in Europe to develop, the European Central Bank’s next steps, and what impact US President Trump’s threat of tariffs might have on the region. They also discuss potential opportunities for investors.00:37 Introduction01:01 Europe’s economy – lack of competitiveness has created downward pressure on wages03:13 Expectations from the ECB05:12 Underlying inflation pressure is weakening06:53 Will a bigger interest rate differential lead to a weaker euro?08:20 Tariff threats and what it means for Europe10:10 Is the lack of competitiveness in Europe partly due to the euro?11:46 What factors may lead to an improvement in the European economy?14:00 Potential opportunities for investors15:28 The automotive industry16:59 Will geopolitics create more challenges or opportunities for Europe?19:15 How significant is the upcoming German election and what could a new government focus on?20:46 SummaryWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Inputs from US inflation indices released last week infer a January core Personal Consumption Expenditure reading of 0.27% month on month, lower than the 0.3% the consensus expects. January retail sales fell 0.9%, the largest decline since March 2023. Together, these data should reverse talk that rates would have to go up again this year. US President Donald Trump is now talking about reciprocal tariffs, which would be much less punitive than the 25% on Canada and Mexico he had been talking about before. US and Russian officials say they will start talks on ending the war in Ukraine in coming days. Reuters reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a symposium to boost private sector sentiment this week that will be attended by the big technology company founders/CEOs.

Investors are eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data and insights from the Federal Reserve following mixed job reports in the U.S. Meanwhile, China is experiencing a tech-driven market rally thanks to optimistic AI advancements and easing tariff concerns. The conversation shifts to China’s robust economic strategies, forecasting a solid GDP growth. Additionally, the discussion highlights the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin in protecting investments against inflation and systemic risks. It's a blend of global market dynamics and strategic investment insights!

In addition to the typical seasonal tailwinds from the Chinese New Year, three key factors are also driving the recent rally in Chinese equity markets: the better-than-feared impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, growing domestic optimism following the release of China’s DeepSeek AI, and rising policy expectations ahead of the National People’s Congress in March.Join Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, as they dive each of these key developments shaping China's market landscape.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, Jen-Ai Chua, Equities Research Analyst at Julius Baer, highlights how Chinese AI start up DeepSeek has upended traditional assumptions underpinning growth in the AI sector. This spells opportunities and risks for players in different parts of the supply chain. In other developments, the Fed’s decision to hold rates at its January Open Market Committee Meeting hints at possible inflation pressures, while President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are classic shock and awe tactics that herald the start of a period of political noise and uncertainty.

Every day we read new statistics about how much investment is needed to maintain ageing infrastructure and to build new infrastructure that will keep pace with modern economies.  Governments can only provide a portion of the trillions of US dollars needed every year, making private investment essential.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Introduction to Private Infrastructure’, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Advisors, Julius Baer talks to Tara Courtney Davies, Partner and Co-Head of KKR EMEA and Co-Head European Infrastructure, about private infrastructure: what it is, as well as its relevance to investors. In their conversation they discuss the important dynamics and developments investors should know about, and the role it can play in a sophisticated portfolio.00:41 Introduction to speakers and topic01:42 What is infrastructure?02:27 What characterises infrastructure assets?03:43 Global infrastructure needs04:24 Tailwinds fuelling infrastructure investment06:02 The role of private investment06:34 Private infrastructure investment in a portfolio context08:43 Risks to consider when investing in infrastructure 10:34 Incorporating infrastructure assets into appropriate portfolios11:43 Considerations regarding semi-liquid investment products12:46 ConclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets have had a busy week as we approach the Chinese New Year of the Wood Snake. The US Dollar index started to move lower after President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on China. Meanwhile, the US economy remains robust, and US equities are jumping on earnings wins by the most since 2018.In Asia, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% on the back on domestic wage pressures and core inflation which remains firmly above the 2% target. Over in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy for the first time since 2021.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.