Beyond Markets

This week’s episode covers the S&P 500’s new record highs as US fiscal policy proves stimulative, despite ongoing tariff headlines and persistent inflation concerns. We examine the fresh trade deal with Indonesia, rising political uncertainty in Japan, and what August’s looming tariff deadline could mean for global trade. Q2 earnings season is underway, with strong results from US banks and tech stocks. We explore what these developments could mean for portfolio positioning amid shifting market dynamics. This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

This week's episode explores how markets are moving beyond tariff fatigue, with attention shifting to the surge in copper prices and renewed interest in European assets. We also touch on the latest US tariff announcements and their implications for trade partners. Meanwhile, diverging views within the Federal Reserve and strong technicals continue to shape sentiment in Asian credit. We discuss what these developments could mean for portfolio positioning.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

President Trump’s 90-day pause on the imposition of tariffs was meant to come to an end on 8 July, but this has now been extended to 1 August. So, what is the latest with regard to the tariff dispute and how does it impact inflation, recession risk and interest rate policy in the US? And what is the impact on both financial markets and other economies?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Julius Baer’s Chief Economist, talks to Bernadette Anderko about his current thinking and why the impact of tariffs has still not fed through to the key data that the US Federal Reserve is monitoring when it comes to making monetary policy decisions. They discuss the implications of the tariff dispute on financial markets as well as looking at its potential impact on the trajectory of the US dollar. They also examine the impact on other regions and reflect on what this means for investors going forwards.(00:31) - Introduction (00:58) - The impact of trade disputes & tariffs (04:47) - Tariffs’ July 9th rollover impact (06:35) - Likelihood of US recession? (08:04) - Impact on US monetary policy (11:44) - Will Trump be satisfied with 3.5% Fed Funds rate? (12:38) - Impact of a ‘shadow’ Fed chair (14:18) - Where the US dollar goes from here (18:14) - A look at Europe (21:31) - The China situation (24:53) - Summary Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Historical trends suggest that S&P 500 index tends to rebound strongly after periods of sell-off and recovery, with the index always higher a year later. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said countries that haven’t signed trade deals by August 1 will face the tariffs detailed on April 2. The market, however, is unfazed, and seems to think intimidation followed by negotiation is the modus operandi of this administration. In other news, Thailand is the worst-performing emerging market stock market in the world this year, down 20% The country has had 17 prime ministers in the past 20 years, and the politics could be eventful in the months ahead.

Get ready for a whirlwind tour of market dynamics! As President Trump prepares to announce a new Fed Chair, expectations for dovish policies rise. A recent Supreme Court ruling limits nationwide injunctions, shifting executive power. The signed trade deal with China adds another layer to the economic landscape. In the treasury market, potential demand spikes with $5.5 trillion possibly up for grabs, along with new stablecoin regulations that could boost treasury interest. All this makes central bank treasury sales seem less daunting!

Recent headlines about price wars and intense competition in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market have sparked investor concerns about the industry’s future, with many worrying about a race to the bottom. But what’s really going on behind the scenes? In this episode, Louis Chua, investment analyst at Julius Baer, examines the key dynamics, opportunities, and challenges in the Chinese EV sector, and what they mean for the market’s long-term growth prospects.(01:00) - : The “price war” – a race to the bottom? (00:00) - Chapter 2 (03:45) - : Chinese automakers making waves internationally (00:00) - Chapter 4 (04:45) - : Is the Chinese domestic EV market slowing? (00:00) - Chapter 6 (06:00) - : Innovation in Chinese EVs (00:00) - Chapter 8 (07:53) - : The “zero-mileage used cars” problem (00:00) - Chapter 10 (09:55) - : Supplier payment reforms (00:00) - Chapter 12 (10:30) - : Key risks and catalysts to watch

US President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, which prioritised limiting military involvement overseas and avoiding “endless wars,” now appears to have given way to a revival of neo-conservatism, an ideology that holds the US should actively use its power to intervene abroad. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed could cut rates as early as July, because of downside risk to the labour market. A recent Bank of America survey showed fund managers are the most underweight US dollar they have been in the last 20 years. More than half thought international stocks will be the best-performing asset over the next few years.

With tensions escalating in the Middle East, markets are on edge. Are we seeing a fundamental supply shock in oil —or just a sentiment-driven spike? What are the ripple effects on oil trade routes and prices? And will gold continue to benefit as a safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk and central bank demand?Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong, speaks with Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, to unpack the implications for commodities—and what long-term investors should keep in mind.

The global economy is navigating a complex landscape of rising oil prices and increasing inflationary pressures. Following last week's conflict between Israel and Iran, oil prices have surged over 12%, and concerns are growing about the potential impact on economic growth and stability. Yet, despite these challenges, certain economies - such as India's - are demonstrating resilience and attracting investor attention due to their strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The first half of the year has provided investors with ample food for thought, but what’s next and how should investors be positioned for the second half of the year? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, discuss with Helen Freer the impact of the US administration on the global economy, the importance of adopting a global investment approach, and the current opportunities, particularly in the equities and fixed income space.(00:33) - Introduction (00:53) - US policies and what it means for the global economy (03:33) - Risk of a recession (05:03) - Expectations for the US Federal Reserve (06:31) - Investing in equities - diversify (07:44) - Why focus on mid-caps? (10:01) - Opportunities in India and China (11:28) - Why do we like Japan? (12:32) - The importance of stock-picking in the current environment (14:40) - Should gold form part of an investor’s allocation? (15:47) - Where does the US dollar go from here? (17:04) - Is the Swiss franc the ultimate safe-haven currency? (17:44) - What does the global trade policy uncertainty mean for credit spreads? (18:55) - Opportunities in the fixed income space (19:44) - What do we prefer in terms of duration? (20:29) - Opportunities in Euro bonds (20:52) - What’s in store for emerging market debt? (21:34) - Next Generation: a barbell strategy with Extended Longevity and Future of Finance (23:41) - Next Generation: Future Cities (24:15) - Summary (25:29) - Conclusion Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.