We've got (Thanksgiving) leftover focus group sound we didn't get to last week. Sarah's best friend Jonathan V. Last makes his vengeful return to the show to work through his thoughts (and the voters' thoughts) on the 2024 election, and he and Sarah parry over just how serious this country is anymore. It gets spicy.

Astead Herndon, host of The New York Times podcast 'The Run-Up,' joins the discussion to dissect the recent election outcomes. They dive into how Trump's new voters feel disillusioned with Democrats, especially Kamala Harris. The conversation highlights widespread economic dissatisfaction among voters, revealing a disconnect between government narratives and daily struggles. They also examine the complexities of identity politics and the need for genuine engagement to connect with diverse communities.

The polls are close enough that this election could go either way. But whatever happens, the focus groups over the last year-plus have given some clues about what's motivating the swing voters voting for Trump, and those voting for Harris. Atlantic senior editor Ron Brownstein joins Sarah to listen to voters and what the Trump and Harris coalitions might look like. show notes By Ron Brownstein: The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less The Improbable Coalition That Is Harris’s Best Hope

There's one thing Republican and Democratic strategists all agree on right now: no state is more likely to decide this election than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania-based POLITICO reporter Holly Otterbein joins Sarah to break down Pennsylvania's shift to the right in recent years, and why Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is finding himself in a surprisingly close race. Show Notes: Spotlight PA: Democrats in Pa. approach 2024 election with slimmest voter registration advantage in decades By Holly Otterbein:  Harris ramps up her appeals to Republican voters in the Philly suburbs ‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing Dems see warning signs for Harris with Latino men in Pennsylvania

Jon Ralston, Editor and CEO of the Nevada Independent, and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Democracy reporter for The Washington Post, dive into the intense political climate in Nevada and Arizona. They discuss the struggles of Republican Senate candidates despite Trump's potential popularity. Ralston sheds light on changing voter demographics and economic challenges, while Sanchez highlights critical issues like abortion rights and Kari Lake's Senate aspirations. Together, they explore how these factors are shaping the upcoming elections.

Michigan and Wisconsin aren't just presidential battlegrounds; their Senate races are getting more competitive down the stretch. So how are swing voters thinking about their options? Craig Gilbert, former DC bureau chief for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and Craig Mauger, political reporter for the Detroit News, join Sarah to break down the electoral landscape in the upper midwest. Show notes: By Craig Gilbert: What polling tells us about Wisconsin's undecided voters The Bulwark's Swing State Swing

The pundit class thought JD Vance performed better than Tim Walz in the vice presidential debate. Voters thought Vance was a good performer, but they couldn't quite shake their skepticism. Puck News's John Heilemann joins Sarah to review voters' reactions to the VP debate and the history of VP picks more broadly.

Peter Hamby, a political commentator and expert on youth voting trends, dives into the unique perspectives of first-time voters shaped by Donald Trump's influence. He discusses the intriguing divide among young conservatives and progressives, particularly in their support for figures like Kamala Harris and Trump. Hamby highlights the evolving political landscape, the anxieties young adults face regarding future planning, and how patriotism is being redefined in today's society. A compelling exploration of the intersection between youth culture and politics!

In this conversation, political strategist Sarah Longwell shares insights from her extensive work with focus groups. She discusses how voter sentiments are shifting as elections approach, particularly concerning Biden's age and Harris's image. Longwell explores the evolving role of AI in political analysis and the importance of authentic messaging. The discussion touches on the challenges of identity within politics, particularly for LGBTQ+ Republicans, and emphasizes the need for unity amid today's polarization. Her reflections offer a hopeful perspective on political engagement.

We're taking a break from the presidential race this week. The battle for control of the Senate is running through red states, with former Trump voters. Some of them are more persuadable than others. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report joins Sarah to discuss the Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Texas, and the role of abortion politics in this year's Senate races.