Cloud 9fin

Dan Zwirn, Co-founding CEO and CIO of Arena Investors, delves into the complexities of the private credit market. He challenges the notion that we are in a 'golden age,' addressing the oversaturation and risks tied to direct lending. Zwirn discusses how monetary policies may impact investments and the rising bankruptcies in the space. He highlights the challenges faced by both General Partners and Limited Partners, along with strategies to navigate this evolving landscape, emphasizing a cautious yet opportunistic approach.

Private credit in both the US and Europe has faced a great deal of pressure from bank lenders in 2024. But despite a slow start, the asset class is holding its ground on a year-to-date basis.In this week’s episode of Cloud 9fin, private credit editor David Brooke digs into the data with analysts Devin McGinley and Elijah Jackson. They chat through the trends, diving into their respective Q3 2024 private credit reports. You can read both reports here and here.To learn more about 9fin’s private credit reports, send a note to the team at private-credit@9fin.com. For feedback on the podcast, or to learn how to get involved, send a note to podcast@9fin.com.Thanks for listening!

The recent election results are reshaping the financial landscape, influencing equities and bond yields. Tariffs and inflation effects loom large, especially for retailers reliant on imports. Political changes are creating divergent impacts across sectors like metals and renewable energy. ESG perspectives show stark contrasts between the US and Europe. Additionally, the private prison sector is witnessing a revival as the political climate shifts, highlighting the complex ties between business and politics.

Peter Benson, a private credit reporter at 9fin, dives into the intricacies of NAV loan structures during a challenging M&A environment. He discusses the shift toward NAV lending as a flexible liquidity solution amid low deal activity. Expect insights on how NAV loans compare to traditional financing methods and the evolving role of private credit firms in this landscape. Benson also highlights the implications of Federal Reserve policies on future M&A activity and the structural challenges private equity sponsors face in adapting to current financial realities.

Batten down the hatches, because the cost of environmental damage continues to rise.Hurricanes and natural disasters pose a threat to leveraged credits. This year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November, has caused significant physical and financial damage to borrowers and civilians located mainly in the southeastern part of the US. Damages from hurricanes Helene and Milton, specifically, are estimated by published reports to be around $50bn each, ranking them among the costliest disasters in recent history.In this week’s episode of Cloud 9fin hosted by leveraged finance editor David Bell, senior reporter Sasha Padbidri talks to Karen Clark, a Nobel Prize-winning pioneer in the catastrophe modeling space. Clark was also the subject of Michael Lewis’ 2007 article In Nature’s Casino for The New York Times Magazine, which examines the topic of catastrophe modeling in great detail.Together, they discuss how the technology of catastrophe modeling has advanced since the 1980s and why understanding these risks are critical for company executives and insurers as natural disasters continue to reshape the financial landscape.

Bill Ammons, founding partner and portfolio manager at AlbaCore Capital, dives into the evolving landscape of direct lending and leveraged finance. He highlights the importance of flexibility and credit selection in navigating a competitive market. Bill shares insights on strategic partnerships meant to enhance growth and discusses how firms can adapt their credit strategies to better serve investor needs. He also reflects on the resilience of direct lending during economic uncertainties, emphasizing the significance of strong documentation and insightful relationships.

Swapnil Sawant, a credit analyst at 9Fin specializing in distressed debt and restructuring, shares insights into the complexities surrounding System1's financial maneuvers. They discuss the impact of Bank of America's strategic loan arrangement and the firm's dramatic rise in leverage. The conversation highlights System1's unique liability management strategies, the challenges following its merger with a SPAC, and the shifting landscape of private credit amidst economic fluctuations. Swapnil’s expertise sheds light on key financial implications for AI sector firms.

Jamil Nathoo from MidOcean Partners, an expert in CLO business development, shares intriguing insights into the world of Collateralized Loan Obligation fundraising. He discusses the emergence of CLO captive equity funds and their impact on issuance control. Dive into the growing CLO appetite in the Middle East and South America, along with the unique challenges these regions present. Nathoo also elaborates on the importance of local partnerships, investor trust, and the evolving dynamics of fundraising in Asia, particularly among family offices.

Kartik Dar, a credit analyst specializing in distressed debt, and Daniel Stone, focused on leveraged finance and merger regulations, dive into the tumultuous world of DISH and DIRECTV. They dissect the complex merger plans, exploring the financial strategies involved and the antitrust hurdles they face. Their insights reveal how shifting competition in the satellite TV sector impacts investors and the broader media landscape, while also discussing the role of regulators in this high-stakes financial game.

Elijah Jackson, a U.S. private credit data analyst at 9fin with a background in M&A transactions, dives into the opaque world of private credit. He highlights the challenges of data collection that hinder transparency. The conversation focuses on how improved data insights can transform investment strategies and promote better deal-making in this complex market. Jackson also shares competitive dynamics between direct lenders and banks, along with future reporting plans aimed at enhancing market clarity.