Alpha Exchange

Explore the world of correlation in financial markets with cautionary tales and discussions on stock and bond market movements. Analyze historical trends, portfolio diversification, and market pricing. Discover how price action impacts distributions, implied correlation, and market diversification. Question the sustainability of the stock market's sensitivity to idiosyncratic events over macro factors.

With option prices in the doldrums, your host provides some thoughts on why and in the process reflects on the skinny levels of risk premia a decade ago. I finish with some cautionary observations around what might go wrong. I hope you enjoy this short pod!

Raghuram Rajan, former head of Reserve Bank of India, discusses unintended consequences of monetary policy, asymmetry during crises, distortions from forward guidance, and Fed's impact on emerging economies. Also dives into his recent book 'Breaking the Mold' and India's transition towards a service-based economy.

Corporate Fraud is an unfortunate, costly and seemingly never-ending aspect of the world of business. In the best case, fraud is prevented or, at least caught before harm is done. All too often, however, these cases of deception lead to large financial losses, impacting the lives of many - shareholders, individuals and certainly those that are courageous whistleblowers.A little more than 15 years after the unwind of the Madoff Ponzi scheme, I invited Harry Markopolos back to the Alpha Exchange. Harry is often simply referred to as “the Man Who Knew”. He chased Madoff for years, serving up a comprehensive slew of evidence to the SEC that was mind boggling in its degree of logic, rigor and scope. Our conversation looks back on the lessons of this Ponzi scheme and also zooms out to consider other examples of corporate fraud including Theranos and FTX. Throughout our discussion I seek to gather Harry’s insights on the commonalities in these cases, how to detect them and also, importantly, how to prevent fraud. He points to a few areas of progress on the enforcement front but makes a strong case that the penalties associated with being caught need to be considerably larger.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Harry Markopolos.

Kris Kumar, CIO of Goose Hollow Capital, discusses the impact of Fed policy on the economy, the shift from tech to energy sectors, valuations in fixed income and equities, and implications on S&P correlation and rate volatility.

Jerry Peters, Managing Partner of Smithbrook, LLC, shares insights on risk-managed equity solutions, option overlay strategies, and maximizing after-tax returns through tax-loss harvesting. He discusses the benefits of using index put options to offset portfolio losses, the concept of 'rebalancing bonus', and the importance of managing downside risk to enhance long term returns.

Mandy Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at Cboe Global Markets, discusses product innovation in options trading, the GME short squeeze, option pricing dynamics, mechanical flows, growth of option income funds, and the debate on ODTE risks in the market.

Guest Kieran Goodwin, distressed debt investing expert, discusses alpha decay, option characteristics of distressed investing, and the challenges of creditor-on-creditor violence in the distressed market. He also explores the CLO business, credit widening cycles, and the potential consequences of market dynamics on default rates.

In Lori Calvasina's role as Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, assessing the interaction between macro variables like rates with top-down factors like the equity market multiple is critical. But important as well is an evaluation of markets from the bottoms up. And here, she not only seeks to pull together the views of colleagues doing strategy work in sector verticals, but also to actually read earning transcripts during reporting season to get a sense of what companies are saying. Her broad assessment of the outlook for corporate America is generally optimistic as she sees companies having come out of multiple stress exercises - trade wars, the Covid shock, and the inflation and monetary policy response in the Pandemic's aftermath among them - with a stronger defensive plan. Companies are harnessing technology and managing costs more effectively, leaving them less likely to be forced to reduce headcount. The result is a consumer holding up quite well.Our discussion touches on the Mag7 and how today's top-heavy portion of the market is similar and different to the highfliers of the tech bubble. For Lori, the valuation premium for names like NVDA and other mega cap tech stocks is justified by the premium of earnings growth they've been able to consistently deliver. We explore the impact of higher rates on the market's multiple and the relative performance of sectors as rates rise or fall. She likes energy, both for its high dividend yield, its strong relative performance as rates rise and the potential for a geopolitical tailwind. On this last front, asked about the market risks that she worries about, it is uncertainty on the global political front along with the US election. She also cites sentiment that may be too bullish and positioning that appears stretched. Lastly, we touch on Lori's recent recognition as one of Barron's Top 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance. Asked about industry efforts to empower female careers in finance, she's optimistic, arguing that it's critical to have not just a mentor but a sponsor as well to push you to the next level.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Lori Calvasina.

Jared Dillian shares insights on managing debt, risk, and creating an 'awesome portfolio'. He emphasizes the importance of making wise financial decisions to minimize stress. The discussion covers topics like housing, student loans, investment strategies, and the balance between financial prudence and seizing opportunities.