The podcast explores the origins of Alpha Exchange and its goals, focusing on risk management and identifying opportunities in financial markets. It also discusses the impact of hindsight bias on predicting future events and examines lessons from past crises. The podcast introduces a framework for categorizing uncertainty and volatility markets, and delves into the concept of the volatility risk premium and its impact on market risk events. It also explores the setup leading to the COVID crisis and the proliferation of short equity vol exposure.
Risk materializes through the unwinding of assumptions about the state of the world.
Geopolitical risks originating from elections, wars, and tweets can have a significant impact on markets.
Deep dives
Overview of the Alpha Exchange podcast
The Alpha Exchange podcast explores topics and financial markets related to managing risk, generating returns, and deploying capital in the alternative investment industry. The host, Dean Kurnutt, reflects on the podcast's five-year anniversary and its goal of adding value and engaging listeners by facilitating trade in ideas and sharing knowledge.
Playing Offense and Defense in Investing
The podcast discusses the importance of finding attractive compensation for bearing risk in different asset classes, geographies, and trade structures. It explores the optimal playbook for offensive investing and the role of portfolio construction in dampening volatility. The podcast also considers the value and cost of hedging strategies and the search for investable opportunities in efficient markets.
Lessons from Financial Crises and Risk Events
The podcast emphasizes the importance of learning from past financial crises and risk events to better understand how risk materializes. It highlights the role of market insurance pricing and the concept of hindsight bias in evaluating risk prediction. The podcast also examines the impact of geopolitical risks on market volatility and the unintended consequences of central bank actions.
The Impact of COVID-19 and Inflation Risks
The podcast reviews the market setup and risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the proliferation of short equity volatility exposure and the dangers of crowded trades. It also discusses the role of uncertainty and humility in dealing with unprecedented events. Additionally, the podcast explores the resurgence of inflation risks and its political implications for countries holding elections during inflation spikes.
Welcome to Part I of a special, retrospective podcast, looking back on 5 years of the Alpha Exchange. It’s been a joy hosting these conversations with experts. I’ve had an opportunity to solicit their insights and bring to life the lens through which they evaluate risk and reward. In Part I, I highlight some of what guests have shared with respect to how risks materialize, with attention to the exposures that sometimes are forcibly unwound when assumptions about the state of the world change. We also touch on geopolitical risks, those that originate from elections, wars and even Tweets. I hope these perspectives shared deepen your own thought process on risk management.
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