Alpha Exchange
The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.
Latest episodes
Jul 30, 2024 • 16min
Man and Markets On Wire
The discussion draws intriguing parallels between Philippe Petit's 1974 tightrope walk and today’s precarious markets. It highlights the recent downturn of the MAG 7 stocks and the resulting shifts in market correlations. The analysis of the VIX curve reveals striking patterns of contango and backwardation, adding layers to investor strategies. Political volatility, particularly surrounding Biden's candidacy, showcases the intricate dance between politics and market movements, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in uncertain times.
Jul 12, 2024 • 14min
Vol Laundering and the Portrait of a Perfect Hedge
Exploring vol laundering, honest risk management, and the concept of a perfect hedge in the investment landscape. Delving into anti-fragility, options-based insurance, and the importance of balancing risk and reward for a strong portfolio. Highlighting zero cost collars, hedge overlays, and the critical aspects of creating a perfect hedge for optimal protection and resilience.
Jul 11, 2024 • 38min
Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist, Head of the Mastercard Economics Institute
Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at MasterCard, discusses leveraging real-time transaction data for economic analysis, revealing insights on consumer trends like the Swift Lift effect from Taylor Swift concerts and increased demand along the April solar eclipse line of totality. The conversation explores resilient US consumers post-pandemic, regional labor market disparities, goods prices, inflation trends, and the complexity of financial conditions and monetary policy.
Jun 27, 2024 • 17min
Cuban’s Collar is Jensen’s Alpha
Jensen Huang, owner of NVDA shares, discusses Mark Cuban's well-timed collar trade on Yahoo and its wealth accumulation impact. The podcast explores collar trades, Mark Cuban's investment strategy, and Jensen Huang's wealth management opportunities through options trading and hedging strategies.
8 snips
Jun 20, 2024 • 16min
Correlation, Crowding and Convexity
Exploring the dispersion trade, pricing of vol and correlation, and the potential risks during risk-off episodes. Analyzing stock correlation levels, volatility, and market risk. Understanding market volatility events, risk-off conditions, and challenges in volatile markets. Exploring market dynamics, policy responses, and the importance of equity index insurance amid uncertain macroeconomic factors.
Jun 18, 2024 • 49min
Garrett DeSimone, Head of Quantitative Research at OptionMetrics
Garrett DeSimone, Head of Quantitative Research at OptionMetrics, discusses his dissertation on event risk premia in single stocks and the implications for option pricing. They delve into the impact of macro events on options trading, the challenges of pricing options accurately, and the evolving nature of option markets. They also explore hedging strategies in a low VIX environment, portfolio scaling using implied downside volatility, and developing a model for calculating implied dividends in the options market.
Jun 13, 2024 • 14min
There’s No Crying in Correlation
Explore the world of correlation in financial markets with cautionary tales and discussions on stock and bond market movements. Analyze historical trends, portfolio diversification, and market pricing. Discover how price action impacts distributions, implied correlation, and market diversification. Question the sustainability of the stock market's sensitivity to idiosyncratic events over macro factors.
Jun 5, 2024 • 14min
The Zeroes…A Cross Asset Sequel
With option prices in the doldrums, your host provides some thoughts on why and in the process reflects on the skinny levels of risk premia a decade ago. I finish with some cautionary observations around what might go wrong. I hope you enjoy this short pod!
Jun 3, 2024 • 53min
Raghuram Rajan, Professor of Finance, Chicago Booth, and Former Head of Reserve Bank of India
Raghuram Rajan, former head of Reserve Bank of India, discusses unintended consequences of monetary policy, asymmetry during crises, distortions from forward guidance, and Fed's impact on emerging economies. Also dives into his recent book 'Breaking the Mold' and India's transition towards a service-based economy.
May 28, 2024 • 41min
Harry Markopolos, "The Man Who Knew"
Corporate Fraud is an unfortunate, costly and seemingly never-ending aspect of the world of business. In the best case, fraud is prevented or, at least caught before harm is done. All too often, however, these cases of deception lead to large financial losses, impacting the lives of many - shareholders, individuals and certainly those that are courageous whistleblowers.A little more than 15 years after the unwind of the Madoff Ponzi scheme, I invited Harry Markopolos back to the Alpha Exchange. Harry is often simply referred to as “the Man Who Knew”. He chased Madoff for years, serving up a comprehensive slew of evidence to the SEC that was mind boggling in its degree of logic, rigor and scope. Our conversation looks back on the lessons of this Ponzi scheme and also zooms out to consider other examples of corporate fraud including Theranos and FTX. Throughout our discussion I seek to gather Harry’s insights on the commonalities in these cases, how to detect them and also, importantly, how to prevent fraud. He points to a few areas of progress on the enforcement front but makes a strong case that the penalties associated with being caught need to be considerably larger.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Harry Markopolos.
