Managing portfolios over the course of two decades, Mike Green has developed a unique framework for assessing risk and opportunity.  Trained in his early days to perform equity valuation, Mike came on the scene just as the tech bubble was imploding and the massive discrepancy between growth and value was coming undone.  In a great seat to ride the small cap value wave during the post internet bubble, but pre-crisis period, Mike began to appreciate the force of market prices and their impact on behavior, narratives and how they become entangled in feedback loops.  Our conversation is a retrospective on these situations of co-dependency – between profits, psychology and the economy.  In this context we discuss left and right tail events – in valuations, in housing price appreciate and in events of extreme high and low implied and realized volatility.Mike’s insights on market structure bring to life the motivations and market frictions that ultimately give rise to a transaction.  Price, in his rendering, is less about valuation and more about the conditions that give rise to a trade to occur.  The result can be option prices that clear the market considerably higher than what one would think possible and Mike references the near 100% bid to implied correlation in 2012 as an example.Today, Mike is Chief Strategist for Logica Capital Advisers and, as usual, he has a lot on his mind.  We talk a good deal about passive investing, a strategy increasingly embraced as simply a better way.  For Mike, passive indexation is plenty active - there’s a  specific decision being made to buy stocks in proportion to their market caps.  At a time when both the SPX and NDX have become substantially top heavy, investors ought to question the efficacy of such a valuation agnostic approach.Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mike Green. 

The son of a physician and with a penchant for math, Andy Redleaf came upon options in high school, even before they were listed on the CBOE.  Post college, Andy landed in an option trading role and was making markets on the CBOE during the 1987 stock market crash. In his rendering, the introduction of stock index futures dramatically increased correlation among stocks and the creation of portfolio insurance left some investors short a put that no other investors were long.  In combination, this left the market vulnerable to such a sharp one day plunge in stock prices.  Our conversation considers market stress periods in the context of the neat mathematical models and their simplifying assumptions that may be enablers of these seismic events.We talk as well about Andy’s hedge fund career, first co-founding Deephaven and then founding Whitebox.  Both ventures were focused on exploiting mispricings in complex securities such as convertible bonds and the relative value between equity and corporate credit securities.  As the head of Whitebox for two decades, Andy oversaw the firm’s expansion into a global multi-strat fund that traded all asset classes and through periods of vol both high and low.  Our discussion brings to life the instability that Andy saw lurking beneath the surface of calm markets in the period prior to the financial crisis.  He shares his analysis of the wholesale mispricing of mortgage risk that was evident in the statistic that nearly 90% of the refinancings on New Century’s book increased the amount owed from the original mortgage.  This, Andy suggests, is an indication of a more desperate borrower.As we explore the important risk events that have helped shaped Andy’s philosophy on risk, we also pivot to the financial climate that is today.  Andy is skeptical that ultra-low interest rates are stimulative and sees the decline in interest rate income as a headwind for consumers who are trying to reach a specific financial goal through savings.  Today, Andy is principal of Park Financial Group, a firm finding opportunities to prudently lend in today’s climate of highly bifurcated credit allocation.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Andy Redleaf.

In 1998, Scott Ladner hit the derivatives scene at First Union, just as LTCM was imploding and equity volatility was rocketing higher.  No sooner would the Fed help contain that risk episode, then the tech bubble would be set in motion.  An intense period of “stocks up, vol up”  during which valuations expanded to unheard of levels, followed by an equally intense, “stocks down, vol up” characterized the period of 1999 through 2001 and provided hands on, sometimes painful experiences for Scott in managing convexity risk.  Short airline volatility during the September 11th terrorist attack, Scott quickly came to appreciate the potential for significant gap risk and discontinuity in markets, a reality not contemplated in the textbook version of Black Scholes.My conversation with Scott considers insights gathered over a career managing volatility exposure across asset classes and how he came to his role as CIO of Horizon Investments.  Scott shares his views on how volatility can come and go, how many factors can come to impact the price of options and how important it is to have a number of little bets on versus being overly concentrated in a singular exposure.  He points to the value, but also the dangers of option models, learning along the way not to take the output too seriously and to constantly re-examine the assumptions being made.  Today, Scott’s dashboard consists of credit, liquidity and risk metrics with the goal of identifying incongruities that help him focus his research to better understand market dynamics.  In this context, we discuss the early and late year vol events of 2018.Lastly, we discuss Horizon’s efforts on behalf of its clients to manage wealth and reach retirement goals within the constraints of the low growth and low interest rate environment.  His team is seeking to build risk management techniques that work specifically in today’s unique economic and financial climate.  Noting that there is now “an ETF for everything”, he sees the last 10 years as the age of product.  The next 10, in contrast, he views as the age of planning, where the focus should be on how to best utilize these new products to maximize the wealth and overall experience of retirement for individuals.  Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Scott Ladner.

A nearly 30 year career has given Jon Havice exposure to just about every strategy across the spectrum of asset markets. A freshly minted Wharton graduate with a major in engineering, Jon came upon O’Connor Associates in the early 1990’s where he cut his teeth trading listed currency option markets. Pre-euro, Jon would experience seminal FX vol events like the ERM unwind,Tequila crisis and Asian contagion in short order, gaining an appreciation for the impact of positioning on currency vol surfaces.As his career progressed, Jon would manage the gamut of arbitrage strategies, focusing on exotic options, convertible bonds, capital structure and muni bonds and dispersion. Our discussion brings to life the lessons to be had from trading through market crisis periods, including the importance of counterparty risk and the degree to which asset prices can stray from fundamental value. We also dive into the vol risk premium, exploring its attributes and how it has evolved over the years in light of the heavy hand of Central Banks. In a world of exceptionally low rates, Jon worries about the glut of yield-chasing capital in private credit and the potential that valuation distortions have resulted.Today, Jon is CIO of DGV Solutions, a firm he founded in 2014 to offer customized investment management products in a transparent and cost efficient manner. His firm deploys its expertise with a purpose, partnering with clients with inspiring missions that Jon and his team feel very connected to. Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jon Havice.

Earning his chops as a macro economist on the sell-side, Alberto Gallo has seen the pendulum of risk swing from extreme fear to euphoria.  During his tenure at Goldman Sachs and then at RBS where he ran the Global Macro Credit Research product, Alberto provided buy-side clients with key insights on seminal volatility events like the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone Sovereign debt crisis.  Now, as a Partner at Algebris Investments, Alberto leads the firm’s Macro Strategy effort, a credit-oriented portfolio designed to navigate the ever tricky terrain of present-day markets. Our conversation considers portfolio construction in a world starved of yield, of low cross-asset risk premia, and one in which the potential for more drastic policy response may be on the horizon.  Alberto’s views on today’s regime of monetary policy point to the side effects that result from negative rates, as the banking system suffers, and investors are deprived of income. On the changing nature of volatility in markets, Alberto provides thoughtful insights.  He points to the increasing degree of forward guidance employed by the world’s large Central Banks, a factor that has depressed volatility and led to more days of sun for market participants.  But since there’s no free lunch, days of rain, while fewer, have become more substantial storms.  Alberto details the increased frequency of flash crashes and sharp risk-offs during the post-crisis period, perhaps the result of investors being forced to embrace carry at skinny margins for error.On inflation, Alberto points to a bottoming of CPI in the US even as structural drivers of low inflation, like demographics and technology, are likely to remain going forward.  As the view that monetary policy has lost some of its punch and may be responsible for increasing income inequality, Alberto considers the trend towards lower Central Bank independence and greater cooperation with governments on the fiscal front.  Will this work?  In Alberto’s rendering, it might, but it’s all about how a more unified version of fiscal and monetary policy is deployed. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Alberto Gallo.

In 1999, as a new century was nearly upon us, the Euro was born and the US tech bubble was in full sway, Louis Gave hung a shingle to start an independent research firm with his father, Charles. Twenty years later, Louis remains CEO of Gavekal, a firm that has helped institutional clients distill global market risk throughout different cycles. Our conversation focuses a good deal on China, an economy that Gavekal has carefully studied. Calling China the biggest macro story the world has ever seen, Louis and his team have had a front row seat on the economic transformation in China and the manner in which 400 million citizens have been lifted out of poverty. Through our discussion, we learn more about how China interacts with the global economy and specifically the stabilizing role that the country played during the financial crisis,  as well as during the growth recessions of 2012 and 2016. Our conversation also focuses a good deal on inflation. Amidst the well-worn narrative that inflation shortfall is a global issue, Louis has interesting insights on the social tension that is resulting from higher inflation. He points to riots in Hong Kong, Chile and the Green Jacket uprising in France, all linked to inflation. In the US, Louis is skeptical that inflation is as hard to come by as commonly reported, noting that core CPI is essentially at a 10-year high. As fiscal and monetary policy are both working in the same direction around the world, is the price of inflation too low? Louis sees recency bias at work and a failure of market participants to appreciate the regime shift that may be in motion. He views the price of crude as critical to watch insofar as the outlook for inflation is concerned. We finish our discussion with Louis’ views on portfolio construction, citing caution for the long treasuries / long growth stocks allocation that has rewarded investors during the post-crisis period. Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Louis Gave.

Fascinated by markets at a very young age, Ben Melkman has spent his investing career thinking through the intersection of politics, macroeconomics and the price of options.  After earning a degree from the London School of Economics, Ben hit the FX desk at Morgan Stanley, quickly establishing himself as an invaluable resource for the largest macro hedge funds who sought his counsel on how best to structure trades in light of vol surfaces on offer across asset markets.  After a highly successful run at Brevan Howard, Ben established Light Sky Macro in 2016.  Our conversation is about large vol events.  With respect to the Global Financial Crisis, Ben dove into the complexities of credit derivative markets, concluding that the price of insurance was outlandishly cheap relative to the actual risks and the potential for contagion.  In our discussion, Ben makes highly insightful points around the inherent risks of over-reliance on modeling, the degree to which correlation assumptions can lead to gross underestimation of risk and the vast interconnectedness of the financial system.  Ben’s views on the interaction between politics and markets and the manner in which investors sometimes fail to anticipate regime shifts is fascinating.  He points to the onset of Abenomics in 2013, a massive campaign that aggressively pushed the yen down, Nikkei up and volatility up.  In the period prior to this wholesale shift in policy, option prices were all skewed in the opposite direction.  As we finish this excellent discussion, Ben looks forward to the potential that the combination of more aggressive fiscal policy in conjunction with accommodative monetary policy might cause a re-think of the inflation shortfall that has characterized the post–crisis era, at the very time when inflation is a highly unloved asset class.  Lastly, Ben offers thoughts on the 2020 US election, excited about the potential market action that may arise from the starkly different views offered by the Democrats and Republicans.  Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ben Melkman.

In the mid 1980's, and recently graduated from Marquette University, a young Jim Bianco scored an accidental meeting for a position with First Boston. Most fortuitously, his resume wound up in the wrong pile, leading him to be mistakenly invited in to interview for a spot supporting a senior analyst. As luck would have it, Jim got the job and so was launched a more than 30 year career in markets. In 1998, amidst the chaos that was LTCM, Jim boldly launch his own firm. And more than two decades later, Bianco Research continues to provide differentiated advice on markets, Central Banks and the economy to its clients.My discussion with Jim focuses on monetary policy, global disinflation and the unholy impact of negative rates on the banking system. Jim’s perspective on the big picture, slow moving yet powerful forces of demographics illustrates how the excess of global savings leads to greater demand for safe fixed income assets. He points as well to the downward pressure on prices due to technological advancement. In this context, he is skeptical that more of the same easy policy from Central Banks is the right medicine to address inflation and growth shortfall.Lastly, I solicit Jim’s views on advancements in research being made possible by Neural Linguistic Processing. Jim and his team have used NLP, for example, to analyze word choices in Fed policy communications to score the degree of focus on growth, inflation, financial stability and other important variables. As data is made more available and at a cheaper price, new techniques like NLP provide exciting opportunities to gain insights on risk. Lastly, we touch on Modern Monetary Theory. While not a fan, Jim acknowledges the momentum of the MMT front, especially as the 2020 election comes into view.

On this episode of the Alpha Exchange, it was my distinct privilege to be joined by Glenn Stevens who resided over the Reserve Bank of Australia as Governor from 2006 to 2016. Considered one of the most gifted Central Bankers of our time, Glenn successfully navigated Australia’s economy through the crisis without a recession. A 36 year career at the RBA has imparted him with an appreciation for the inherent challenges in economic forecasting and in this context, we touch on Glenn's decision to tighten in early 2008 as inflation in Australia rose, only to sharply reverse course a few months later as the Global Financial Crisis began. Our conversation is a retrospective on the fast moving, unnerving time that was the GFC, a period that demanded and benefited from policymaker coordination. In Glenn’s view, the interconnected nature of markets and the economy during the crisis also forced Central Banks to view asset prices in a more endogenous light, assigning more weight to the impact of financial conditions on the real economy. I also solicit Glenn’s views on how the RBA’s goals and considerations may be shaped by unique attributes of the Australian economy. Lastly, we spend time - of course -on the puzzle that is Inflation and the related phenomenon of negative interest rates. I’m excited to bring you this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Glenn Stevens.

The onslaught of Tweets regularly lobbed at Fed Chairman Powell assumes at least some part of the mosaic of today’s unique and vibrant risk climate.  But is Trump much different from previous Fed Chairs?  In “The Myth of Independence”, Sarah Binder and Mark Spindel provide an important account of the political history of the Fed.  And in this episode of the Alpha Exchange, it was a pleasure to have Mark, the Founder and CIO of Potomac River Capital, share his expert views on this subject as well as the macro environment in which Central Banks operate today.  Our conversation considers historical market stress events including the square off between Soros and the BoE, the Fed’s surprise tightening in 1994 and, of course the Great Financial Crisis.Mark also provides valuable perspective on the early days of the Fed, from its post-panic creation in 1912 through the onset of WWI, the high inflation volatility of the 1920’s, and then of course the 1929 crash and Great Depression.  Our conversation helps frame the chronology of how the Fed got to where it is today and the politics that inevitably influenced this path.We wrap up the discussion with Mark’s survey of today’s growth, inflation and asset price outlook.  His assessment of inflation shortfall and the risks of Japanification, lead him to the conclusion that the Fed must be vigilant and that Central Bank coordination with the fiscal arm is a theme that will likely be subject to growing consideration.Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Mark Spindel.