More or Less: Behind the Stats

The podcast explores the government's claims of record numbers of social rent homes, the increase in murder sentences in the UK, Liz Truss's speech on national debt, and the feasibility of increasing the NHS workforce.

David Sumpter talks to Tim Harford about the different approaches to navigating our day to day challenges. They discuss the limitations of statistical thinking and introduce alternative ways of thinking. They explore the concepts of chaos and complexity, sharing personal anecdotes and discussing the work of Margaret Hamilton and Andrei Colin McGoroth.

Examining the plausibility of high rates of skin cancer diagnosis in the UK, discussing conflicting statistics and the impact of basal cell carcinoma. Questioning how many generations would need to pass to encounter a descendant alive in the year 3000. Exploring the claim of London's rising average rent compared to take-home pay. Discussing the challenges faced in building the Panama Canal and fact-checking Donald Trump's claim of 35,000 American deaths.

Matthew Parker, author of Hell's Gorge: The Battle to Build the Panama Canal, joins Tim Harford to investigate the claim made by Donald Trump that 35,000 Americans died during the construction of the canal. They discuss the challenges faced by the French during their failed attempt, the hazardous conditions and diseases workers encountered, and the tragic stories of those involved. The episode uncovers the complex history behind the casualties and explores the lasting impact of the Panama Canal.

Explore the rise in COVID deaths in England and Wales, revised UK economic growth figures during the pandemic, and the claims about Chloe Kelly's World Cup penalty speed. Discuss the environmental impact of North Sea gas compared to imports and debunk the government's claim. Analyze the factors contributing to the UK's poor economic performance and emphasize the importance of considering multiple indicators.

Debunking the myth of humans only using 10% of our brain, this podcast explores the controversy and theories surrounding non-responsive neurons. It delves into brain plasticity, individual cell functions, and the implications of brain usage on intelligence and evolution.

The podcast explores the affordability of electric cars in the UK and whether they can replace the HS2 rail project. They analyze the claim of deaths following COVID vaccination in England. Comparisons are made between The Guardian's and their own mathematical errors. The hosts discuss the UK's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and debunk the myth of humans using only 10% of their brains.

Examining the release of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean and evaluating its environmental impact. Exploring the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident and the challenge of deciding whether to store treated radioactive wastewater or discharge it into the Pacific Ocean. Discussing the release of tritium from the Fukushima plant and addressing concerns about radiation risks. Highlighting the negative effects of fear and stress on human health regarding radiation.

Experts discuss the challenges in determining the exact number of butterflies on Earth, ongoing efforts in the UK to conduct butterfly counts, use of transect surveys to estimate the number of butterflies, the difficulty of determining the global butterfly population, reflections on past estimation methods, and the need for global volunteer efforts.

Football competitions are kicking off all around Europe in the coming days and weeks, including the world’s most watched division: The English Premier League. We might make our predictions on who we think is going to win a sporting competition but what factors are we considering? In this programme we look at some of the most popular variables that are taken into account when making sporting predictions and why even these have drawbacks. From upcoming football leagues to the Olympic Games, Head Analyst from Nielsen Gracenote, Simon Gleave tells us what are some of the most difficult sports to predict and why.Presenter: Paul Connolly Producer: Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinators: Debbie Richford and Janet Staples Sound Engineer: Graham PuddifootImage: Premier League Trophy, Credit: Carl Recine/Reuters