More or Less: Behind the Stats How to approach the world through numbers
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Sep 16, 2023 David Sumpter talks to Tim Harford about the different approaches to navigating our day to day challenges. They discuss the limitations of statistical thinking and introduce alternative ways of thinking. They explore the concepts of chaos and complexity, sharing personal anecdotes and discussing the work of Margaret Hamilton and Andrei Colin McGoroth.
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Limits of Statistical Thinking
- Statistical significance doesn't always mean practical significance.
- Studies can be statistically significant yet explain very little of the actual variance.
Grit and Success
- Studies on "grit" show a statistically significant but small effect on success.
- Being "grittier" might not significantly impact your success compared to someone less gritty.
Social Interactions as Disease Spread
- David Sumpter uses disease spread models to understand social interactions.
- He views influencing friends to exercise as a non-linear process, like a seesaw.