Capitalmind Podcast

On today's show, Deepak Shenoy (CEO) and Aditya Jaiswal (Analyst) discuss the Bharat Bond ETF in detail. Transcript: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/12/bharat-bond-etf/ Q) Will it provide the much needed liquidity to the debt market? Who are going to be the market makers? Q) Is it a zero credit risk option? and what about the interest rate risk? Q) Is it a good deal for the fixed income investors? Q) Which option will suit you better, the 3-year variant or the 5-year variant? Grab your popcorn and stay tuned, you are going to enjoy this one!

Deepak Shenoy (@deepakshenoy) speaks with Nithin Kamath (@Nithin0dha), CEO of Zerodha about the Karvy mess- does it reflect a systemic failure? do brokers like Karvy have legacy issues? how differently does Zerodha operate? and most importantly, what should investors do to protect themselves from such scandals in the future. Transcripts: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/12/podcast-16-what-broke-karvy-and-how-is-zerodha-shaping-the-future-of-broking/

The year 2019 has been quite eventful for the Indian markets! Right from corporate governance issues popping up almost every month, the collapse of NBFCs such IL&FS and DHFL, then the shady practices in scheduled banks such as the PMC Bank and now comes the Karvy fiasco. Read transcripts here: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/11/podcast-the-strange-happenings-at-karvy-ep-15/ Deepak Shenoy (CEO) and Aditya Jaiswal (Analyst) discuss in detail how the Karvy fiasco unraveled followed by series of questions such as: What is a pool account and are brokers using it as means to fund themselves? Can brokers misuse the power of attorney signed by their clients? Is it safer to have demat accounts with banks? What should the existing clients of Karvy do? What happens to the banks/NBFCs who have lent money to Karvy?

We often hear that "Mutual Funds Sahi Hai". But none of the experts answer, "Konsa Mutual Fund Sahi Hai?" Host Deepak Shenoy (CEO) and Aditya Jaiswal bring you another Podcast where they simplify mutual funds, allocation (debt-equity), SIP vs lump sum debate, the myth regarding Star ratings, ELSS funds, expense ratios, Sectoral funds and a lot more! Transcripts: capitalmind.in/2019/11/how-to-buy-a-mutual-fund-ep-14/

Host Deepak Shenoy (CEO) and Aditya Jaiswal discuss a bunch of interesting things in this podcast including, whether it makes sense to buy a house in the Uber economy, the mother-in-law economics, the financial implications of having a portfolio of properties, and the outlook for the property prices in the near term. Read full transcript: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/10/podcast-should-you-buy-a-house-ep-13/    

Host Deepak Shenoy (CEO) and Aditya Jaiswal discuss about Yes Bank – The “Kohinoor” of Rana Kapoor, pledging of shares by ZEE and deferred tax assets (DTAs) in the books of private and public sector banks. Deepak’s thoughts on Yes Bank (1:35) Cockroaches in Zee’s Books? (5:45) Deferred tax assets in the books of private and public sector banks (10:00) Read full transcript: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/10/yes-banks-fall-zees-fall-and-deferred-tax-assets-ep-12/   Excerpts: 1. Deepak's thoughts on Yes Bank: Why should people continue to retain deposits with the Yes bank? The answer to this is two things First of all, the bank accounts itself don't show us the kind of panic that people seem to have in their heads the deposits seem relatively safe. And to that extent, you know, if you look at the numbers that they have their INR 58,000 crores in government bonds are the 2 lakh Crore in govt deposits, that's 25% straightaway or 30% early and then they have loans worth INR 2,30,000 crores, they have another you know 10,000 crores of cash with RBI they have another INR 5000 somewhere else. So, there is essentially about 75,000 crores of very, very liquid assets that they have. They have also told us that, you know we've still seeing certain amount of rationalization in their in their loans. Even if all the BB loans were to go to zero and their current NPAs are all supposed to go to zero, they would lose roughly 20-25,000 crores this would take you know eight quarters because RBI way gives them already quarters write them down, in those eight quarters they will generate INR12-13,000 crores of profits because they have other loans which are good, there is a potential another fund raise that will come up so, at max I think even if they were to take this extreme step of where all these loans go bad, the capital ratios will still be okay... "I don't think it's a great time for anybody to buy Yes bank stock, it's a lottery! But the chances of winning substantial amounts are very low. So I'm not really interested in the stock. I am, however, of the opinion that the deposits are safe." 2. Cockroaches in Zee's Books? (5:45) If you look at the FII holding of ZEE, about 47% of ZEE is held by FIIs, out of which the big guys that is anybody who owns more than 1% of Zee add up to only only 19%. So, the remaining 30% of ZEE holding (held by FIIs), is held by a lot of FIIs who have less than 1% shares. Who are these FIIs? Why are there so many of them? And how come they all own these tiny little percentages of ZEE? We don't know the answer to that... 3. Deferred tax assets in the books of private and public sector banks If you take the 22% tax regime, you can't use the deferred tax assets. Whenever you take an asset and say that as it is worthless now, because I'm going to the 22% tax regime and that tax regime does not allow me to take the deferred tax asset, I am immediately going to lose that amount...

Host Deepak Shenoy (CEO) and Aditya Jaiswal discuss the corporate tax cut and it's impact on the economy and most importantly, on our portfolios. Read full transcript: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/10/podcast-will-corporate-tax-cuts-fix-indias-bruised-economy-ep-11/   We discussed seven questions: Corporate tax cuts are fine but why aren’t we talking about the consumption demand? (1:26) Why corporate tax cuts why not cut personal taxes? (9:15) How will the government bell the fiscal Cat? (13:00) Will India finally become the factory to the world? (16:58) Will the improving profitability lead to re-rating of the Indian market? (21:26) Why are the Megacaps rallying? (28:30) Are the good times back for the portfolios? (32:33)

Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra discuss in detail about the troubles at the Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank, the role of RBI and what options do PMC bank's depositors have. Read full transcript: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/09/podcast-the-pmc-bank-debacle-episode-10/  

We discussed five broad questions: 1) Should India borrow abroad, if yes, then why? (10 mins) 2) Domestic liquidity issues and crowding out effect (8 minutes) 3) Why are experts (Ex- RBI governors) against this move? (3 mins) 4) What are risks o going overboard with overseas borrowing? (4 mins) 5) Risks of borrowing abroad (15 mins) Below is an excerpt of the podcast with time stamps of important sections! Read full transcript: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/09/podcast-should-the-indian-government-borrow-from-abroad-episode-9/   1.Should India borrow abroad, if yes, then why? (2:00) The government borrows roughly INR5 lakh crores net per year. In the next year, the estimate of revenue that we want to collect just taxes, Indians will collect about 16 lakh gross, the government will pay 6.5 lakh crores in debt interest payment. About 40% percent of all of money that you're paying as a tax, is going not to build infrastructure, not to feed the hungry, not to pay farmers for food. It's going towards interest payments on the debt they borrowed in the past. Why would this be a problem? because we borrow debt at extremely high rates part. And here's the important thing, India's own companies that borrow abroad (ONGC for an example) has a bond issued in euros and euro denominated debt... 2. Domestic liquidity issues and crowding out effect (10:40) You know, this is interesting, because what some of the economists have put across is or you know, what Indian Government is borrowing 3.3% and 2.2% is by states and some 4% is something else. And therefore, India's gross financial savings, which is about 10% of GDP out of which about 8% of GDP is borrowed by the government, my answer to that is that's not true! 3. Why are experts (Ex- RBI governors) against this move? (18:00) About 1% of GDP is about 2 lakh crores. I think it's too small. I think in any given year, you can say don't borrow more than 1% of GDP. That's fine. I don't think India will see appetite for more than 10 billion euros at this point, which is about 70-75,000 crores thousand crores. I don't think any more appetite exists right now because everybody wants to wait and watch. And I think this is a good start. If there is an appetite, of course, we can look at more, I think you know, go and give more and buy a bottle more, especially if they're going to give it to you at negative rates, just go and borrow as much as you can, up to say 10% of the total debt... 4. What are risks o going overboard with overseas borrowing? (21:00) The problem is that, what if another government is in power, right?. What if the same government is in power? Your problem is this, you're creating debt, it could be a poison- poisoning the well phenomenon. And the idea is that poisoning the well is like, you know, when, when people used to attack another country, these two are another place which will which had a fort, the idea was to throw poisoned frogs, rags, with darts and arrows. Some of them could fall inside a well which would then get poisoned, then nobody would have any source of water and everybody would die. Poisoning the well is to say to the next person that comes here, he will not enjoy that place because the water will be poisoned, they won't be able to drink the water. If you poison a well, you too can't come back! 5. Risks of borrowing abroad (24:50) I think the point is if we borrow $100 at 70 rupees, we get 7,000. We may get it at 0.45%, but three years later rupees or 100. And then we return the hundred dollars and we return 10,000 rupees.

"Under normal circumstances, merging PSUs would have been impossible, had the government tried it 5 years ago, there would been riot on the street, today there is not even a murmur. They were able to do that because the slowdown is obvious!" - Deepak Shenoy Host Deepak Shenoy (CEO) and Aditya Jaiswal discuss about the economic slowdown witnessed in the Indian economy. Read Full transcript: https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/09/podcast-how-slow-is-the-indian-economy-episode-8/   The Podcast was divided into three broad sections: a) Macro indicators (20 mins) b) Recent federal regulations (8 minutes) c) Few sectors which are currently facing a slowdown (30 mins)   Below is an excerpt of the podcast with time stamps of important sections! 1) Macro-indicators 1:40-  GDP growth: We have had 5 consecutive quarters of decelerating GDP numbers, right from 8.2% in Q1 18 to 5% in Q1 19, this was the slowest growth in 25 quarters. How bad the situation is and is the worst behind us? Or should we expect a couple of more tepid quarters? 3:20- Inflation: Inflation has been under control, it has been consistently falling for 6 straight months since Jan 2019, when inflation is under control, why is the GDP falling?, does this reflect weakening demand ultimately cooling off growth? Weakening of demand is concerning because we recently heard two big biscuit manufacturers going on record to say that people are not buying even 5-rupee packet biscuits. 8:07- Unemployment: Unemployment in FY18 stood at 6.1%, a 45 year high, now with big manufacturing units announcing massive job cuts, auto alone has seen 2.3 lakh people losing jobs, where do you see unemployment situation going in the near term? 11:02- Private consumption: Private consumption which constitutes about 58-59% of the GDP has been slowing down. Urban wage growth has stagnated, white collar wages have been slowing and rural consumption has also fallen on back of collapse on food prices and job cuts by manufacturing units, where do you see this going? 15:00- Investments: We looked at the GDP growth, inflation, unemployment and consumption, let's talk about investments. The gross capital formation has fallen from 34% in 2011 to 29% in 2018. Do you believe that we are stuck in a low growth cycle (Falling wages- falling savings, falling investments and low GDP growth)? 2) Recent federal regulations 20:30- Impact of GST and Demonetization on the economy About 30% of the Indian economy is completely informal and employs a chunk of the population. In 2014-15, late Arun Jaitley had made a statement, the informal sector doesn’t want to operate in shadows, neither they are corrupt, rather it was a failure on the part of the federal governments that even after six decades of independence, we couldn’t integrate them with the formal economy” In the pursuit of this integration, the government went ahead with the vision of cashless economy, demonetization and GST. Do you believe that demonetization and GST have actually hit the informal sector really hard? Do you think, somewhere, it turned out to be a shock therapy for the unorganized sector? 3) Sectors 28:18- Real Estate Residential real estate which was mostly fueled by black money is really not moving except the affordable housing part. Now that black money is hiding in may be gold! How will that come back into the economy? Where do you see the sector going? 33:09- Automobiles Now, we all know that there is a crisis in the Indian auto industry,  all big manufacturers are reporting double digit falls in volumes. TVS chairman made a big statement, that this slowdown is the worst in 3 decades and spread across sectors. Auto stocks recently witnessed buying interest in the anticipation of a GST cut, do you believe that a GST cut can change the fortunes of the sector? 41:28- Automobile replacement cycle A lot of existing car owners have started using Ola/Uber/Quick ride and this has led to postponement new car purchase, where do you see the replacement cycle going forward? 45:23- FMCG Parle-G and Britannia went on record to say that people are not buying even INR5 rupee packet biscuits. But FMCG stocks still command relatively high premium, why is that? Do you see optimism in investors, that among autos, infra, discretionary, real estate, financials, FMCG will be resilient. 50:50- Final thoughts! You can also listen to our podcasts on our app: www.capitalmind.in/podcast