Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Some of the most insightful investment conversations start with a single question: “What do you believe that most of your peers disagree with?” In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive into 11 controversial investing takes—from QE and technical analysis to macro obsession and fee structures. You’ll hear nuanced perspectives from top investors who challenge conventional wisdom, and you might even find yourself rethinking your own beliefs.🧠 This is a fast-paced, thought-provoking ride through the investment ideas most likely to start a debate at your next finance happy hour.Topics Covered:Why QE may always be inflationary (Andy Constan)The case for separating advice fees from asset management fees (Rick Ferri)Why trimming and adding to positions might be a waste of time (Chris Mayer)A defense of free trade in a protectionist world (Jared Dillian)Why turnover isn't always a bad thing (Travis Prentice)Multidisciplinary investing vs. deep specialization (Cameron Dawson vs. Katie Stockton)When it’s OK to override your quant model (Joe Gubler)The trap of emulating famous investors (Rupert Mitchell)The entertainment vs. value tradeoff of macro (David Giroux)Rethinking shareholder primacy in today’s political landscape (Peter Atwater)Timestamps:00:00 - Intro & Why QE is Inflationary (Andy Constan)07:20 - Separate Fees for Advice & Management (Rick Ferri)11:00 - No Trimming or Trading Around Positions (Chris Mayer)15:30 - AI Will Be a Net Positive (Andrew Cohen)19:00 - The Case for Free Trade (Jared Dillian)23:30 - Turnover Isn't Always Bad (Travis Prentice)27:00 - Multidisciplinary Investing (Cameron Dawson)31:00 - Investing Solely on Technicals (Katie Stockton)34:00 - Overriding the Quant Model (Joe Gubler)41:00 - Don’t Try to Be the Next Buffett (Rupert Mitchell)44:00 - Macro Doesn’t Always Add Value (David Giroux)48:00 - Shareholders Don’t Come First Anymore (Peter Atwater)

In this special episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Bogumil Baranowski to reflect on one of the most emotional and historic moments in financial history: Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. With commentary from voices who were in the room—and some who weren’t—we explore what it felt like, what it meant, and what comes next for Berkshire and Buffett’s legacy. Featuring clips from John Candeto, Adam Mead, Eric Markowitz, and Ted Merz, this is both a tribute and a thoughtful discussion on culture, succession, and enduring business values.Topics Covered:The emotional weight and historic nature of Buffett’s resignationFirsthand reactions from inside the room at the Berkshire meetingWhy Buffett’s delivery was masterful—and why it matteredReflections on the unique culture of Berkshire and its shareholder communityThe Buffett “shield” and what it means for Greg Abel and Berkshire's futureWhy more companies don’t emulate the Berkshire approachThe role of tradition in building enduring businessesPersonal stories of shareholders whose lives were changed by long-term compounding

In this engaging discussion, Mike Green, a provocative thinker on passive investing, unpacks the hidden mechanics behind seemingly passive investment flows. He reveals how these flows actively distort market dynamics and price discovery, raising concerns about systemic risks and the real implications for individual investors. Mike also delves into the gig economy's effect on unemployment data and the challenges international assets face amid prevailing passive trends. With clarity and wit, he offers crucial insights that challenge conventional views on modern market behavior.

In this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately.**Topics Covered:*** Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement

Discover the shifting landscape of investing as Ben Hunt and Grant Williams tackle the transition from capital allocation to narrative-driven markets. They explore why traditional strategies may falter now, emphasizing the power of corporate storytelling and the evolving role of CEOs as narrative architects. Delve into the dynamics of speculation versus sound investing and the intricate relationship between market narratives and real-world businesses. With fresh frameworks for decision-making, this conversation challenges listeners to rethink their investment strategies.

In this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward.Topics Covered:Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymoreThe impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocationRisk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environmentsThe argument for real assets: real estate and commoditiesAn overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profileThe rise of managed futures and how they improve diversificationThe psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them)Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternativesCliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-takingHow to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows

In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term successThe myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over timeHow to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond moneyAligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticityManaging other people’s money with care, respect, and humilityLearning from mistakes and the importance of reputationThe priceless value of community and true friendships

Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value.Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing.The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics.The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris.Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio.The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes.The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.

In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm.Main Topics Covered:Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers.Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment.Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved.National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan.DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.

Discover timeless trading wisdom from Jack Schwager, as he shares insights from legendary traders like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen. Explore the vital importance of continuous evaluation of your portfolio to avoid complacency. Learn how emotional resilience can turn early failures into future success. Understand the necessity of adapting strategies to evolving markets and the value of waiting for the right opportunities. Delve into simple yet effective risk management techniques that can lead to significant investment success.