Two Quants and a Financial Planner

In this episode, we kick off our book project, "The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You", with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions.Main topics covered:Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and lifeHow to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock pricesWhy multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcutsUnderstanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is goodLessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision makingHow humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgmentReflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative processTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the book04:00 Michael Mauboussin on base rates and decision making10:00 Expectations investing and reversing the valuation process19:00 Multiples are not valuation—understanding shortcuts28:00 The paradox of skill and why luck matters more than we think38:00 How to apply these ideas in investing and life45:00 Closing thoughts and audience feedback on the book project

Dive into the wisdom of long-term investing with insights from Chris Mayer. Discover why 'dead money' can be tougher than drawdowns and learn the emotional toll of patience. Uncover the myth of catalysts while understanding the power of compounding. Understand how great businesses reveal their strengths over time and why aligning with the right mindset is crucial. Explore Buffett's evolution in value investing and see how handling uncertainty can create unique opportunities. It's a compelling journey through the challenges and strategies of building wealth.

In this insightful discussion, Dave Nadig, an expert in financial markets, revisits ideas from Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning. They reveal how the so-called crisis might be more about renewal than collapse, debunking common misconceptions. The conversation touches on inflation’s role during crises, the unique leadership traits of Gen X, and millennials' rise in passive investing. They emphasize how conflict can foster community and explore the necessity of cross-generational dialogue in navigating current societal challenges.

In this episode, we highlight the biggest lessons from our Excess Returns interview with renowned strategist Richard Bernstein. We explore the paradox of today’s markets: why they feel easy, and what hard truths may be hiding beneath the surface. From the risks of narrow market leadership to the role of structural flows and investor complacency, Richard shares practical lessons drawn from decades of market experience.We discuss:Why narrow markets may signal greater risk than investors realizeThe danger of mistaking easy markets for safe onesHow structural flows can prop up markets despite rising risksThe behavioral traps investors fall into during seemingly easy timesWhat history teaches us about mispricings and market resilienceWhether you’re focused on protecting capital or positioning for the next cycle, this conversation offers valuable insights into today’s market dynamics.

Some of the most insightful investment conversations start with a single question: “What do you believe that most of your peers disagree with?” In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive into 11 controversial investing takes—from QE and technical analysis to macro obsession and fee structures. You’ll hear nuanced perspectives from top investors who challenge conventional wisdom, and you might even find yourself rethinking your own beliefs.🧠 This is a fast-paced, thought-provoking ride through the investment ideas most likely to start a debate at your next finance happy hour.Topics Covered:Why QE may always be inflationary (Andy Constan)The case for separating advice fees from asset management fees (Rick Ferri)Why trimming and adding to positions might be a waste of time (Chris Mayer)A defense of free trade in a protectionist world (Jared Dillian)Why turnover isn't always a bad thing (Travis Prentice)Multidisciplinary investing vs. deep specialization (Cameron Dawson vs. Katie Stockton)When it’s OK to override your quant model (Joe Gubler)The trap of emulating famous investors (Rupert Mitchell)The entertainment vs. value tradeoff of macro (David Giroux)Rethinking shareholder primacy in today’s political landscape (Peter Atwater)Timestamps:00:00 - Intro & Why QE is Inflationary (Andy Constan)07:20 - Separate Fees for Advice & Management (Rick Ferri)11:00 - No Trimming or Trading Around Positions (Chris Mayer)15:30 - AI Will Be a Net Positive (Andrew Cohen)19:00 - The Case for Free Trade (Jared Dillian)23:30 - Turnover Isn't Always Bad (Travis Prentice)27:00 - Multidisciplinary Investing (Cameron Dawson)31:00 - Investing Solely on Technicals (Katie Stockton)34:00 - Overriding the Quant Model (Joe Gubler)41:00 - Don’t Try to Be the Next Buffett (Rupert Mitchell)44:00 - Macro Doesn’t Always Add Value (David Giroux)48:00 - Shareholders Don’t Come First Anymore (Peter Atwater)

In this special episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Bogumil Baranowski to reflect on one of the most emotional and historic moments in financial history: Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. With commentary from voices who were in the room—and some who weren’t—we explore what it felt like, what it meant, and what comes next for Berkshire and Buffett’s legacy. Featuring clips from John Candeto, Adam Mead, Eric Markowitz, and Ted Merz, this is both a tribute and a thoughtful discussion on culture, succession, and enduring business values.Topics Covered:The emotional weight and historic nature of Buffett’s resignationFirsthand reactions from inside the room at the Berkshire meetingWhy Buffett’s delivery was masterful—and why it matteredReflections on the unique culture of Berkshire and its shareholder communityThe Buffett “shield” and what it means for Greg Abel and Berkshire's futureWhy more companies don’t emulate the Berkshire approachThe role of tradition in building enduring businessesPersonal stories of shareholders whose lives were changed by long-term compounding

In this engaging discussion, Mike Green, a provocative thinker on passive investing, unpacks the hidden mechanics behind seemingly passive investment flows. He reveals how these flows actively distort market dynamics and price discovery, raising concerns about systemic risks and the real implications for individual investors. Mike also delves into the gig economy's effect on unemployment data and the challenges international assets face amid prevailing passive trends. With clarity and wit, he offers crucial insights that challenge conventional views on modern market behavior.

In this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately.**Topics Covered:*** Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement

Discover the shifting landscape of investing as Ben Hunt and Grant Williams tackle the transition from capital allocation to narrative-driven markets. They explore why traditional strategies may falter now, emphasizing the power of corporate storytelling and the evolving role of CEOs as narrative architects. Delve into the dynamics of speculation versus sound investing and the intricate relationship between market narratives and real-world businesses. With fresh frameworks for decision-making, this conversation challenges listeners to rethink their investment strategies.

In this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward.Topics Covered:Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymoreThe impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocationRisk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environmentsThe argument for real assets: real estate and commoditiesAn overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profileThe rise of managed futures and how they improve diversificationThe psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them)Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternativesCliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-takingHow to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows