

Two Quants and a Financial Planner
Excess Returns
Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
Episodes
Mentioned books

Apr 28, 2025 • 1h 7min
The Irrecoverable Error: Risk, Ruin, and the Rules of Wealth | Practical Lessons from Guy Spier
In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term successThe myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over timeHow to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond moneyAligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticityManaging other people’s money with care, respect, and humilityLearning from mistakes and the importance of reputationThe priceless value of community and true friendships

Apr 16, 2025 • 1h 8min
The Dark Side of Value Investing: Practical Lessons from Aswath Damodaran
Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value.Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing.The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics.The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris.Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio.The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes.The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.

Apr 3, 2025 • 1h 5min
Tariffs Are Here. The Market is Down. Here is What It Means for Investors
In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm.Main Topics Covered:Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers.Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment.Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved.National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan.DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.

12 snips
Mar 31, 2025 • 49min
Most Great Traders Failed First: These Key Rules Saved Them | Practical Lessons from Jack Schwager
Discover timeless trading wisdom from Jack Schwager, as he shares insights from legendary traders like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen. Explore the vital importance of continuous evaluation of your portfolio to avoid complacency. Learn how emotional resilience can turn early failures into future success. Understand the necessity of adapting strategies to evolving markets and the value of waiting for the right opportunities. Delve into simple yet effective risk management techniques that can lead to significant investment success.

Mar 24, 2025 • 56min
75% of Investors Will Disagree with These Ideas: Evidence Says They are True
In this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we’ve compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives. Main Topics Covered: - Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends - Mike Green introduces Goodhart’s Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes. - Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics. - Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they’rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice. - Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company’s future. - Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing. - Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives. - Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets. - Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach. - Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work. - Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance. - Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value. - Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers. - Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity. - Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade. - Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it’s a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.

Mar 17, 2025 • 53min
The Great Moderation is Over: Here is What Comes Next | Practical Lessons from Liz Ann Sonders
In this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the "Great Moderation" era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann's wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels.Main topics covered:• The transition from the "Great Moderation" era to what Liz Ann calls the "Temperamental Era" - understanding how inflation volatility and market dynamics are shifting• Why "rolling recessions" matter and how different sectors of the economy can experience downturns at different times• The limitations of valuation metrics as market timing tools and why they shouldn't be used for short-term decisions• How uncertainty is a constant in markets and why claiming "above average uncertainty" is often misleading• Important lessons from Martin Zweig about market timing versus trend following• The dangers of benchmark obsession and why comparing everything to the S&P 500 can lead to poor investment decisions• Why "all in" or "all out" market timing strategies rarely work and the importance of disciplined portfolio management• Practical advice for handling concentrated stock positions and the challenges of rebalancing during market gains

Mar 10, 2025 • 1h 8min
Value Investing: Dead or Just Misunderstood? | Special Guest: Tobias Carlisle
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into the state of value investing with special guest Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds and author of multiple books on value investing. In this insightful conversation, they look at some of the most insightful clips from our guests including Cliff Asness, Aswath Damodaran, Kai Wu, Scott McBride, Larry Swedroe and Dan Rasmussen. They explore why value investing has struggled in recent years, examine value spreads, and discuss whether this time is truly different. Tobias offers a compelling case for why value investors might finally see their patience rewarded.Topics covered:• Value spreads and how they've evolved from historically consistent ranges to unprecedented widths in recent years• Why value doesn't necessarily need catalysts or multiple expansion to generate returns• The impact of intangible assets on value metrics and whether traditional valuation methods need updating• How indexing and passive investing have affected market dynamics and created potential opportunities• The underperformance of international stocks compared to US markets and whether that trend might reverse• Why the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have defied mean reversion and if that can continue• How to maintain conviction as a value investor during extended periods of underperformance

Mar 3, 2025 • 58min
Practical Lessons from Bob Elliott
In this compilation episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler bring you the most valuable insights from our interviews with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds and former head of Ray Dalio's research team at Bridgewater. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: Markets and Macroeconomic RealityElliott dismantles the notion that markets can permanently detach from economic fundamentals, walking through how earnings, margins, and wage growth are all interconnected. He explains why claims of "this time it's different" rarely hold true over longer time horizons.The "Big or Small" FrameworkLearn the powerful yet simple framework Elliott used at Bridgewater to tackle complex problems, including how he assessed the 2008 housing crisis with the straightforward question: "This housing problem, big or small?"Income-Driven vs. Debt-Driven Economic CyclesDiscover why the post-COVID economy behaved differently than many expected and why the Fed's rate hikes didn't crash the economy – Elliott explains the crucial difference between income-driven and debt-driven economic cycles.True Diversification Beyond 60/40Elliott challenges conventional portfolio construction, explaining why the traditional 60/40 portfolio worked well only during specific economic conditions of the past 40 years and offers practical advice for genuine diversification in an uncertain future.Wage Growth and InflationUnderstand the tight relationship between wage growth and inflation, and why inflation can't meaningfully decline while wage growth remains elevated without productivity improvements.The Fed's Decision-Making ProcessElliott provides insight into why the Federal Reserve appears "behind the curve," explaining how its consensus-driven, backward-looking data approach creates policy delays by design.Whether you're a seasoned investor or just beginning your financial journey, Elliott's analytical frameworks and practical insights will help you think more clearly about markets, economic cycles, and portfolio construction in an increasingly complex financial landscape.SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTShttps://sunpointeinvestments.com/FOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW MATTTwitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreativeLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/

Feb 24, 2025 • 1h 3min
Practical Lessons from Warren Pies
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into unique perspectives on markets and investing through the lens of Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal's innovative research approaches. They explore:A fresh take on the 60/40 portfolio debate and why the death of this strategy may be greatly exaggeratedHow to interpret market breadth and retail sentiment through new indicators like inverse ETF volumeWhy Treasury actions may be just as important as Fed policy in today's marketsThe critical relationship between bond yields, supply/demand dynamics, and what it means for investorsPractical insights on AI's impact on productivity and investment researchWhy certain market indicators that worked in the past may need updating for today's environmentWarren and Fernando bring data-driven, original analysis to these topics, offering viewers a unique perspective that goes beyond traditional market commentary. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this episode provides actionable insights on current market dynamics and evolving investment frameworks.SEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITALhttps://www.valideacapital.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTShttps://sunpointeinvestments.com/FOLLOW JACKTwitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTINTwitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneauFOLLOW MATTTwitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreativeLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/

12 snips
Feb 17, 2025 • 1h 4min
Practical Lessons from Cem Karsan | Inside the Hidden Forces Moving Markets
Cem Karsan, an insightful options trader, shares his expertise on the hidden forces driving markets. He emphasizes the fundamental roles of supply, demand, and liquidity, stating why these elements are crucial for effective investing. Karsan discusses the importance of probabilistic thinking and how different timeframes impact market dynamics. He also explores the significant influence of options trading on volatility and offers intriguing perspectives on election year market trends. Listeners gain valuable frameworks for navigating risk and enhancing investment strategies.


